132 resultados para Ecological niche
Resumo:
This paper builds on and extends previous research to contribute to ongoing discussion on the use of resource and carbon accounting tools in regional policy making. The Northern Visions project has produced the first evidence-based footpath setting out the actions that need to be taken to achieve the step changes in the Ecological and Carbon Footprint of Northern Ireland. A range of policies and strategies were evaluated using the Resources and Energy Analysis Programme. The analysis provided the first regional evidence base that current sustainable development policy commitments would not lead to the necessary reductions in either the Ecological Footprint or carbon dioxide emissions. Building on previous applications of Ecological Footprint analysis in regional policy making, the research has demonstrated that there is a valuable role for Ecological and Carbon Footprint Analysis in policy appraisal. The use of Ecological and Carbon Footprint Analysis in regional policy making has been evaluated and recommendations made on ongoing methodological development. The authors hope that the research can provide insights for the ongoing use Ecological and Carbon Footprint Analysis in regional policy making and help set out the priorities for research to support this important policy area
Resumo:
This paper aims to contribute to the ongoing debate on the use of resource accounting tools in regional policy making. The Northern Limits project applied Material Flow Analysis and Ecological Footprinting to regional policy making in Northern Ireland over a number of years. The early phase of the research informed the regions first sustainable development strategy which was published in 2006 with key targets relating to the Ecological Footprint and improving the resource efficiency of the economy. Phase II identified the next steps required to address data availability and quality and the use of MFA and EF in providing a measurement and monitoring framework for the strategy and in the development of the strategy implementation plan. The use of MFA and Ecological Footprinting in sustainable regional policy making and the monitoring of its implementation is an ongoing process which has raised a number of research issues which can inform the ongoing application and development of these and other resource accounting tools to within Northern Ireland, provide insights for their use in other regions and help set out the priorities for research to support this important policy area.
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Microbial ecology is currently undergoing a revolution, with repercussions spreading throughout microbiology, ecology and ecosystem science. The rapid accumulation of molecular data is uncovering vast diversity, abundant uncultivated microbial groups and novel microbial functions. This accumulation of data requires the application of theory to provide organization, structure, mechanistic insight and, ultimately, predictive power that is of practical value, but the application of theory in microbial ecology is currently very limited. Here we argue that the full potential of the ongoing revolution will not be realized if research is not directed and driven by theory, and that the generality of established ecological theory must be tested using microbial systems.
Resumo:
Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.
Resumo:
The relationships among organisms and their surroundings can be of immense complexity. To describe and understand an ecosystem as a tangled bank, multiple ways of interaction and their effects have to be considered, such as predation, competition, mutualism and facilitation. Understanding the resulting interaction networks is a challenge in changing environments, e.g. to predict knock-on effects of invasive species and to understand how climate change impacts biodiversity. The elucidation of complex ecological systems with their interactions will benefit enormously from the development of new machine learning tools that aim to infer the structure of interaction networks from field data. In the present study, we propose a novel Bayesian regression and multiple changepoint model (BRAM) for reconstructing species interaction networks from observed species distributions. The model has been devised to allow robust inference in the presence of spatial autocorrelation and distributional heterogeneity. We have evaluated the model on simulated data that combines a trophic niche model with a stochastic population model on a 2-dimensional lattice, and we have compared the performance of our model with L1-penalized sparse regression (LASSO) and non-linear Bayesian networks with the BDe scoring scheme. In addition, we have applied our method to plant ground coverage data from the western shore of the Outer Hebrides with the objective to infer the ecological interactions. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Determining the trophic niche width of an animal population and the relative degree to which a generalist population consists of dietary specialists are long-standing problems of ecology. It has been proposed that the variance of stable isotope values in consumer tissues could be used to quantify trophic niche width of consumer populations. However, this promising idea has not yet been rigorously tested. By conducting controlled laboratory experiments using model consumer populations (Daphnia sp., Crustacea) with controlled diets, we investigated the effect of individual- and population-level specialisation and generalism on consumer d C mean and variance values. While our experimental data follow general expectations, we extend current qualitative models to quantitative predictions of the dependence of isotopic variance on dietary correlation time, a measure for the typical time over which a consumer changes its diet. This quantitative approach allows us to pinpoint possible procedural pitfalls and critical sources of measurement uncertainty. Our results show that the stable isotope approach represents a powerful method for estimating trophic niche widths, especially when taking the quantitative concept of dietary correlation time into account. © 2012 The Authors.
Resumo:
The ecological footprint is now a widely accepted indicator of sustainable
development. Footprinting translates resource consumption into the land area
required to sustain it, and allows for an average per capita footprint for a region
or nation to be compared with the global average. This paper reports on a project
in which footprints were calculated for two Irish cities, namely Belfast in
Northern Ireland and Limerick in the Republic of Ireland for the year 2001. As
is frequently the case at sub-national scale, data quality and availability were
often problematic, and in general data gaps were filled by means of population
proxies or national averages. A range of methods was applied to convert
resource flows to land areas. Both footprints suggest that the lifestyles of citizens
of the cities use several times more land than their global share, as has been
found for other cities.
Resumo:
One of the most important bird breeding and over wintering sites in the west of Europe, the Coto Doñana, was severely impacted by the release of 5 million cubic meters of acid waste from the processing of pyrite ore. The waste entered ecologically sensitive areas of the park (including breeding areas for internationally endangered bird species) causing sustained pH decreases from pH 8.5 to 4.5 and resulting in massive metal contamination of the impacted ecosystem. The contaminating sludge waste contained arsenic at 0.6%, lead at 1.2% and zinc at 0.8% on a dry weight basis. The acid conditions facilitated the solubilization of these metals, leading to water concentrations lethal for aquatic wildlife. The accident caused considerable fish and invertebrate kills and has severe consequences for the protected bird species dependent on the impacted habitats and adjacent areas.
Resumo:
The greatest common threat to birds in Madagascar has historically been from anthropogenic deforestation. During recent decades, global climate change is now also regarded as a significant threat to biodiversity. This study uses Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to explore how potential climate change could affect the distribution of 17 threatened forest endemic bird species, using a range of climate variables from the Hadley Center's HadCM3 climate change model, for IPCC scenario B2a, for 2050. We explore the importance of forest cover as a modeling variable and we test the use of pseudo-presences drawn from extent of occurrence distributions. Inclusion of the forest cover variable improves the models and models derived from real-presence data with forest layer are better predictors than those from pseudo-presence data. Using real-presence data, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of nine species. We could not predict the impact of climate change on eight species because of low numbers of occurrences. All nine species were predicted to experience reductions in their total range areas, and their maximum modeled probabilities of occurrence. In general, species range and altitudinal contractions follow the reductive trend of the Maximum presence probability. Only two species (Tyto soumagnei and Newtonia fanovanae) are expected to expand their altitude range. These results indicate that future availability of suitable habitat at different elevations is likely to be critical for species persistence through climate change. Five species (Eutriorchis astur, Neodrepanis hypoxantha, Mesitornis unicolor, Euryceros prevostii, and Oriola bernieri) are probably the most vulnerable to climate change. Four of them (E. astur, M. unicolor, E. prevostii, and O. bernieri) were found vulnerable to the forest fragmentation during previous research. Combination of these two threats in the future could negatively affect these species in a drastic way. Climate change is expected to act differently on each species and it is important to incorporate complex ecological variables into species distribution models.
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Parallel phenotypic evolution in similar environments has been well studied in evolutionary biology; however, comparatively little is known about the influence of determinism and historical contingency on the nature, extent and generality of this divergence. Taking advantage of a novel system containing multiple lake-stream stickleback populations, we examined the extent of ecological, morphological and genetic divergence between three-spined stickleback present in parapatric environments. Consistent with other lake-stream studies, we found a shift towards a deeper body and shorter gill rakers in stream fish. Morphological shifts were concurrent with changes in diet, indicated by both stable isotope and stomach contents analysis. Performing a multivariate test for shared and unique components of evolutionary response to the distance gradient from the lake, we found a strong signature of parallel adaptation. Nonparallel divergence was also present, attributable mainly to differences between river locations. We additionally found evidence of genetic substructuring across five lake-stream transitions, indicating that some level of reproductive isolation occurs between populations in these habitats. Strong correlations between pairwise measures of morphological, ecological and genetic distance between lake and stream populations supports the hypothesis that divergent natural selection between habitats drives adaptive divergence and reproductive isolation. Lake-stream stickleback divergence in Lough Neagh provides evidence for the deterministic role of selection and supports the hypothesis that parallel selection in similar environments may initiate parallel speciation.
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The study of parallel evolution facilitates the discovery of common rules of diversification. Here, we examine the repeated evolution of thick lips in Midas cichlid fishes (the Amphilophus citrinellus species complex) - from two Great Lakes and two crater lakes in Nicaragua - to assess whether similar changes in ecology, phenotypic trophic traits and gene expression accompany parallel trait evolution. Using next-generation sequencing technology, we characterize transcriptome-wide differential gene expression in the lips of wild-caught sympatric thick- and thin-lipped cichlids from all four instances of repeated thick-lip evolution. Six genes (apolipoprotein D, myelin-associated glycoprotein precursor, four-and-a-half LIM domain protein 2, calpain-9, GTPase IMAP family member 8-like and one hypothetical protein) are significantly underexpressed in the thick-lipped morph across all four lakes. However, other aspects of lips' gene expression in sympatric morphs differ in a lake-specific pattern, including the magnitude of differentially expressed genes (97-510). Generally, fewer genes are differentially expressed among morphs in the younger crater lakes than in those from the older Great Lakes. Body shape, lower pharyngeal jaw size and shape, and stable isotopes (dC and dN) differ between all sympatric morphs, with the greatest differentiation in the Great Lake Nicaragua. Some ecological traits evolve in parallel (those related to foraging ecology; e.g. lip size, body and head shape) but others, somewhat surprisingly, do not (those related to diet and food processing; e.g. jaw size and shape, stable isotopes). Taken together, this case of parallelism among thick- and thin-lipped cichlids shows a mosaic pattern of parallel and nonparallel evolution. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Resumo:
Community structure depends on both deterministic and stochastic processes. However, patterns of community dissimilarity (e.g. difference in species composition) are difficult to interpret in terms of the relative roles of these processes. Local communities can be more dissimilar (divergence) than, less dissimilar (convergence) than, or as dissimilar as a hypothetical control based on either null or neutral models. However, several mechanisms may result in the same pattern, or act concurrently to generate a pattern, and much research has recently been focusing on unravelling these mechanisms and their relative contributions. Using a simulation approach, we addressed the effect of a complex but realistic spatial structure in the distribution of the niche axis and we analysed patterns of species co-occurrence and beta diversity as measured by dissimilarity indices (e.g. Jaccard index) using either expectations under a null model or neutral dynamics (i.e., based on switching off the niche effect). The strength of niche processes, dispersal, and environmental noise strongly interacted so that niche-driven dynamics may result in local communities that either diverge or converge depending on the combination of these factors. Thus, a fundamental result is that, in real systems, interacting processes of community assembly can be disentangled only by measuring traits such as niche breadth and dispersal. The ability to detect the signal of the niche was also dependent on the spatial resolution of the sampling strategy, which must account for the multiple scale spatial patterns in the niche axis. Notably, some of the patterns we observed correspond to patterns of community dissimilarities previously observed in the field and suggest mechanistic explanations for them or the data required to solve them. Our framework offers a synthesis of the patterns of community dissimilarity produced by the interaction of deterministic and stochastic determinants of community assembly in a spatially explicit and complex context.