Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: Are major surprises inevitable?

Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.

Ecological coherence in marine reserve network design: an empirical evaluation of sequential site selection using genetic structure

Ecological coherence is a multifaceted conservation objective that includes some potentially conflicting concepts. These concepts include the extent to which the network maximises diversity (including genetic diversity) and the extent to which protected areas interact with non-reserve locations. To examine the consequences of different selection criteria, the preferred location to complement protected sites was examined using samples taken from four locations around each of two marine protected areas: Strangford Lough and Lough Hyne, Ireland. Three different measures of genetic distance were used: FST, Dest and a measure of allelic dissimilarity, along with a direct assessment of the total number of alleles in different candidate networks. Standardized site scores were used for comparisons across methods and selection criteria. The average score for Castlehaven, a site relatively close to Lough Hyne, was highest, implying that this site would capture the most genetic diversity while ensuring highest degree of interaction between protected and unprotected sites. Patterns around Strangford Lough were more ambiguous, potentially reflecting the weaker genetic structure around this protected area in comparison to Lough Hyne. Similar patterns were found across species with different dispersal capacities, indicating that methods based on genetic distance could be used to help maximise ecological coherence in reserve networks. ⺠Ecological coherence is a key component of marine protected area network design. ⺠Coherence contains a number of competing concepts. ⺠Genetic information from field populations can help guide assessments of coherence. ⺠Average choice across different concepts of coherence was consistent among species. ⺠Measures can be combined to compare the coherence of different network designs.

On the dimensionality of ecological stability

Ecological stability is touted as a complex and multifaceted concept, including components such as variability, resistance, resilience, persistence and robustness. Even though a complete appreciation of the effects of perturbations on ecosystems requires the simultaneous measurement of these multiple components of stability, most ecological research has focused on one or a few of those components analysed in isolation. Here, we present a new view of ecological stability that recognises explicitly the non-independence of components of stability. This provides an approach for simplifying the concept of stability. We illustrate the concept and approach using results from a field experiment, and show that the effective dimensionality of ecological stability is considerably lower than if the various components of stability were unrelated. However, strong perturbations can modify, and even decouple, relationships among individual components of stability. Thus, perturbations not only increase the dimensionality of stability but they can also alter the relationships among components of stability in different ways. Studies that focus on single forms of stability in isolation therefore risk underestimating significantly the potential of perturbations to destabilise ecosystems. In contrast, application of the multidimensional stability framework that we propose gives a far richer understanding of how communities respond to perturbations.

Exploiting spatio-temporal constraints for robust 2D pose tracking

We present a Spatio-temporal 2D Models Framework (STMF) for 2D-Pose tracking. Space and time are discretized and a mixture of probabilistic "local models" is learnt associating 2D Shapes and 2D Stick Figures. Those spatio-temporal models generalize well for a particular viewpoint and state of the tracked action but some spatio-temporal discontinuities can appear along a sequence, as a direct consequence of the discretization. To overcome the problem, we propose to apply a Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filter (RBPF) in the 2D-Pose eigenspace, thus interpolating unseen data between view-based clusters. The fitness to the images of the predicted 2D-Poses is evaluated combining our STMF with spatio-temporal constraints. A robust, fast and smooth human motion tracker is obtained by tracking only the few most important dimensions of the state space and by refining deterministically with our STMF.