Discrete Conditional Phase-type model (DC_Ph) for patient waiting time with a logistic regression component to predict patient admission to hospital

Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models are a family of models which represent skewed survival data conditioned on specific inter-related discrete variables. The survival data is modeled using a Coxian phase-type distribution which is associated with the inter-related variables using a range of possible data mining approaches such as Bayesian networks (BNs), the Naïve Bayes Classification method and classification regression trees. This paper utilizes the Discrete Conditional Phase-type model (DC-Ph) to explore the modeling of patient waiting times in an Accident and Emergency Department of a UK hospital. The resulting DC-Ph model takes on the form of the Coxian phase-type distribution conditioned on the outcome of a logistic regression model.

Modelling and Control of Shape Memory Alloy Actuators by using Preisach Model, Genetic Algorithm and Fuzzy Logic

Shapememoryalloy (SMA) actuators, which have the ability to return to a predetermined shape when heated, have many potential applications in aeronautics, surgical tools, robotics and so on. Nonlinearity hysteresis effects existing in SMA actuators present a problem in the motion control of these smart actuators. This paper investigates the control problem of SMA actuators in both simulation and experiment. In the simulation, the numerical Preisachmodel with geometrical interpretation is used for hysteresis modeling of SMA actuators. This model is then incorporated in a closed loop PID control strategy. The optimal values of PID parameters are determined by using geneticalgorithm to minimize the mean squared error between desired output displacement and simulated output. However, the control performance is not good compared with the simulation results when these parameters are applied to the real SMA control since the system is disturbed by unknown factors and changes in the surrounding environment of the system. A further automated readjustment of the PID parameters using fuzzylogic is proposed for compensating the limitation. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed controller, real time control experiment results are presented.

The Conditional Phase-type distribution: Graphical Models for Continuous Non-Normal Data:The Conditional Phase-type (C-Ph) distribution:

Conditional Gaussian (CG) distributions allow the inclusion of both discrete and continuous variables in a model assuming that the continuous variable is normally distributed. However, the CG distributions have proved to be unsuitable for survival data which tends to be highly skewed. A new method of analysis is required to take into account continuous variables which are not normally distributed. The aim of this paper is to introduce the more appropriate conditional phase-type (C-Ph) distribution for representing a continuous non-normal variable while also incorporating the causal information in the form of a Bayesian network.

Ethnic Competition and the logic of party system transformation

This article adapts and expands a recent model of ethnic competition by exploring its implications over a long period spanning crucial stages in the modernisation of the political system. It illustrates the model by reference to developments in Northern Ireland since its modern party system was launched in the 1880s. This offers an exceptionally clear example of the interaction of central elements of the model: the initial bedding down of a system of bipartisan ethnic competition, with two parties having a remarkable capacity to resist ethnic outbidding; the fragmentation of this system following the introduction of a set of major institutional forms that facilitated ethnic outbidding; and the continuing resilience of ethnically based parties in warding off challenges from groups seeking to prioritise other political dimensions. The model's implications are tested against a comprehensive collection of ecological and survey data.

Logic feels so good-I like it! Evidence for intuitive detection of logicality in syllogistic reasoning

When people evaluate syllogisms, their judgments of validity are often biased by the believability of the conclusions of the problems. Thus, it has been suggested that syllogistic reasoning performance is based on an interplay between a conscious and effortful evaluation of logicality and an intuitive appreciation of the believability of the conclusions (e.g., Evans, Newstead, Allen, & Pollard, 1994). However, logic effects in syllogistic reasoning emerge even when participants are unlikely to carry out a full logical analysis of the problems (e.g., Shynkaruk & Thompson, 2006). There is also evidence that people can implicitly detect the conflict between their beliefs and the validity of the problems, even if they are unable to consciously produce a logical response (e.g., De Neys, Moyens, & Vansteenwegen, 2010). In 4 experiments we demonstrate that people intuitively detect the logicality of syllogisms, and this effect emerges independently of participants' conscious mindset and their cognitive capacity. This logic effect is also unrelated to the superficial structure of the problems. Additionally, we provide evidence that the logicality of the syllogisms is detected through slight changes in participants' affective states. In fact, subliminal affective priming had an effect on participants' subjective evaluations of the problems. Finally, when participants misattributed their emotional reactions to background music, this significantly reduced the logic effect.

The link between logic, mathematics and imagination: evidence from children with developmental dyscalculia and mathematically gifted children

This study examined performance on transitive inference problems in children with developmental dyscalculia (DD), typically developing controls matched on IQ, working memory and reading skills, and in children with outstanding mathematical abilities. Whereas mainstream approaches currently consider DD as a domain-specific deficit, we hypothesized that the development of mathematical skills is closely related to the development of logical abilities, a domain-general skill. In particular, we expected a close link between mathematical skills and the ability to reason independently of one's beliefs. Our results showed that this was indeed the case, with children with DD performing more poorly than controls, and high maths ability children showing outstanding skills in logical reasoning about belief-laden problems. Nevertheless, all groups performed poorly on structurally equivalent problems with belief-neutral content. This is in line with suggestions that abstract reasoning skills (i.e. the ability to reason about content without real-life referents) develops later than the ability to reason about belief-inconsistent fantasy content.A video abstract of this article can be viewed at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90DWY3O4xx8.

Merging Knowledge Bases in Possibilistic Logic by Lexicographic Aggregation

Belief merging is an important but difficult problem in Artificial Intelligence, especially when sources of information are pervaded with uncertainty. Many merging operators have been proposed to deal with this problem in possibilistic logic, a weighted logic which is powerful for handling inconsistency and deal-ing with uncertainty. They often result in a possibilistic knowledge base which is a set of weighted formulas. Although possibilistic logic is inconsistency tolerant, it suffers from the well-known "drowning effect". Therefore, we may still want to obtain a consistent possibilistic knowledge base as the result of merging. In such a case, we argue that it is not always necessary to keep weighted information after merging. In this paper, we define a merging operator that maps a set of possibilistic knowledge bases and a formula representing the integrity constraints to a classical knowledge base by using lexicographic ordering. We show that it satisfies nine postulates that generalize basic postulates for propositional merging given in [11]. These postulates capture the principle of minimal change in some sense. We then provide an algorithm for generating the resulting knowledge base of our merging operator. Finally, we discuss the compatibility of our merging operator with propositional merging and establish the advantage of our merging operator over existing semantic merging operators in the propositional case.

Imprecise probabilistic query answering using measures of ignorance and degree of satisfaction

In conditional probabilistic logic programming, given a query, the two most common forms for answering the query are either a probability interval or a precise probability obtained by using the maximum entropy principle. The former can be noninformative (e.g.,interval [0; 1]) and the reliability of the latter is questionable when the priori knowledge isimprecise. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose some methods to quantitativelymeasure if a probability interval or a single probability is sufficient for answering a query. We first propose an approach to measuring the ignorance of a probabilistic logic program with respect to a query. The measure of ignorance (w.r.t. a query) reflects howreliable a precise probability for the query can be and a high value of ignorance suggests that a single probability is not suitable for the query. We then propose a method to measure the probability that the exact probability of a query falls in a given interval, e.g., a second order probability. We call it the degree of satisfaction. If the degree of satisfaction is highenough w.r.t. the query, then the given interval can be accepted as the answer to the query. We also prove our measures satisfy many properties and we use a case study to demonstrate the significance of the measures. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Switching between molecular switch types by module rearrangement:Ca -enabled, H-driven 'off-on-off', H-driven YES and PASS 0 as well as H, Ca-driven AND logic operations

Several logic gates and switches can be accessed from two different combinations of a single set of fluorophore, receptor and spacer components.

Tailoring Plasmonic Metamaterials for DNA Molecular Logic Gates

Structural and functional information encoded in DNA combined with unique properties of nanomaterials could be of use for the construction of novel biocomputational circuits and intelligent biomedical nanodevices. However, at present their practical applications are still limited by either low reproducibility of fabrication, modest sensitivity, or complicated handling procedures. Here, we demonstrate the construction of label-free and switchable molecular logic gates that use specific conformation modulation of a guanine- and thymine- rich DNA, while the optical readout is enabled by the tunable alphabetical metamaterials, which serve as a substrate for surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy (MetaSERS). By computational and experimental investigations, we present a comprehensive solution to tailor the plasmonic responses of MetaSERS with respect to the metamaterial geometry, excitation energy, and polarization. Our tunable MetaSERS-based DNA logic is simple to operate, highly reproducible, and can be stimulated by ultra-low concentration of the external inputs, enabling an extremely sensitive detection of mercury ions.

Tools for Finding Inconsistencies in Real-world Logic-based Systems

Currently there is extensive theoretical work on inconsistencies in logic-based systems. Recently, algorithms for identifying inconsistent clauses in a single conjunctive formula have demonstrated that practical application of this work is possible. However, these algorithms have not been extended for full knowledge base systems and have not been applied to real-world knowledge. To address these issues, we propose a new algorithm for finding the inconsistencies in a knowledge base using existing algorithms for finding inconsistent clauses in a formula. An implementation of this algorithm is then presented as an automated tool for finding inconsistencies in a knowledge base and measuring the inconsistency of formulae. Finally, we look at a case study of a network security rule set for exploit detection (QRadar) and suggest how these automated tools can be applied.