Multi-agents modelling of EV purchase willingness based on questionnaires

Traditional experimental economics methods often consume enormous resources of qualified human participants, and the inconsistence of a participant’s decisions among repeated trials prevents investigation from sensitivity analyses. The problem can be solved if computer agents are capable of generating similar behaviors as the given participants in experiments. An experimental economics based analysis method is presented to extract deep information from questionnaire data and emulate any number of participants. Taking the customers’ willingness to purchase electric vehicles (EVs) as an example, multi-layer correlation information is extracted from a limited number of questionnaires. Multi-agents mimicking the inquired potential customers are modelled through matching the probabilistic distributions of their willingness embedded in the questionnaires. The authenticity of both the model and the algorithm is validated by comparing the agent-based Monte Carlo simulation results with the questionnaire-based deduction results. With the aid of agent models, the effects of minority agents with specific preferences on the results are also discussed.

Accumulating research: a systematic account of how cumulative meta-analyses would have provided knowledge, improved health, reduced harm and saved resources

BACKGROUND: "Cumulative meta-analysis" describes a statistical procedure to calculate, retrospectively, summary estimates from the results of similar trials every time the results of a further trial in the series had become available. In the early 1990 s, comparisons of cumulative meta-analyses of treatments for myocardial infarction with advice promulgated through medical textbooks showed that research had continued long after robust estimates of treatment effects had accumulated, and that medical textbooks had overlooked strong, existing evidence from trials. Cumulative meta-analyses have subsequently been used to assess what could have been known had new studies been informed by systematic reviews of relevant existing evidence and how waste might have been reduced.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a systematic approach to identify and summarise the findings of cumulative meta-analyses of studies of the effects of clinical interventions, published from 1992 to 2012. Searches were done of PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Methodology Register and Science Citation Index. A total of 50 eligible reports were identified, including more than 1,500 cumulative meta-analyses. A variety of themes are illustrated with specific examples. The studies showed that initially positive results became null or negative in meta-analyses as more trials were done; that early null or negative results were over-turned; that stable results (beneficial, harmful and neutral) would have been seen had a meta-analysis been done before the new trial; and that additional trials had been much too small to resolve the remaining uncertainties.

CONCLUSIONS: This large, unique collection of cumulative meta-analyses highlights how a review of the existing evidence might have helped researchers, practitioners, patients and funders make more informed decisions and choices about new trials over decades of research. This would have led to earlier uptake of effective interventions in practice, less exposure of trial participants to less effective treatments, and reduced waste resulting from unjustified research.

Economical and coordinated dispatch of CHP based microgrid with renewable energy resources

The advantages of high energy efficiency and economic benefit promote the wide application of combined heat and power system (CHP) based microgrid. Firstly, a mathematical model of the CHP based microgrid is developed. Then, a cost function for the coordination of heat and electric load is proposed. Finally, an optimal dispatch model is developed to achieve the economical and coordinated operation of the CHP based microgrid system. Simulation results verify effectiveness of the proposed dispatch model, which is a powerful tool for the energy management of CHP based microgrid with renewable energy resources.

Using OPAL Citizen Science Resources to explore science outside the classroom

Explore the free OPAL resources including surveys from air quality, water quality, tree health, biodiversity of hedgerows, soil and earthwork survey and bug count survey

Genomic Resources Notes Accepted 1 June 2015 - 31 July 2015

This article documents the public availability of (i) microbiomes in diet and gut of larvae from the dipteran Dilophus febrilis using massive parallel sequencing, (ii) SNP and SSR discovery and characterization in the transcriptome of the Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus, L) and (iii) assembled transcriptome for an endangered, endemic Iberian cyprinid fish (Squalius pyrenaicus).

Laser Driven Nuclear Physics at ELI–NP

High power lasers have proven being capable to produce high energy γ-rays, charged particles and neutrons, and to induce all kinds of nuclear reactions. At ELI, the studies with high power lasers will enter for the first time into new domains of power and intensities: 10 PW and 10^23 W/cm^2. While the development of laser based radiation sources is the main focus at the ELI-Beamlines pillar of ELI, at ELI-NP the studies that will benefit from High Power Laser System pulses will focus on Laser Driven Nuclear Physics (this TDR, acronym LDNP, associated to the E1 experimental area), High Field Physics and QED (associated to the E6 area) and fundamental research opened by the unique combination of the two 10 PW laser pulses with a gamma beam provided by the Gamma Beam System (associated to E7 area). The scientific case of the LDNP TDR encompasses studies of laser induced nuclear reactions, aiming for a better understanding of nuclear properties, of nuclear reaction rates in laser-plasmas, as well as on the development of radiation source characterization methods based on nuclear techniques. As an example of proposed studies: the promise of achieving solid-state density bunches of (very) heavy ions accelerated to about 10 MeV/nucleon through the RPA mechanism will be exploited to produce highly astrophysical relevant neutron rich nuclei around the N~126 waiting point, using the sequential fission-fusion scheme, complementary to any other existing or planned method of producing radioactive nuclei.

The studies will be implemented predominantly in the E1 area of ELI-NP. However, many of them can be, in a first stage, performed in the E5 and/or E4 areas, where higher repetition laser pulses are available, while the harsh X-ray and electromagnetic pulse (EMP) environments are less damaging compared to E1.

A number of options are discussed through the document, having an important impact on the budget and needed resources. Depending on the TDR review and subsequent project decisions, they may be taken into account for space reservation, while their detailed design and implementation will be postponed.

The present TDR is the result of contributions from several institutions engaged in nuclear physics and high power laser research. A significant part of the proposed equipment can be designed, and afterwards can be built, only in close collaboration with (or subcontracting to) some of these institutions. A Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is currently under preparation with each of these key partners as well as with others that are interested to participate in the design or in the future experimental program.