Ecological dynamics of extinct species in empty habitat networks. 1. The role of habitat pattern and quantity, stochasticity and dispersal

We examined a remnant host plant (Primula veris L.) habitat network that was last inhabited by the rare butterfly Hamearis lucina L. in north Wales in 1943, to assess the relative contribution of several spatial parameters to its regional extinction. We first examined relationships between P. veris characteristics and H. lucina eggs in surviving H. lucina populations, and used these to predict the suitability and potential carrying capacity of the habitat network in north Wales. This resulted in an estimate of roughly 4500 eggs (ca 227 adults). We developed a discrete space, discrete time metapopulation model to evaluate the relative contribution of dispersal distance, habitat and environmental stochasticity as possible causes of extinction. We simulated the potential persistence of the butterfly in the current network as well as in three artificial (historical and present) habitat networks that differed in the quantity (current and X3) and fragmentation of the habitat (current and aggregated). We identified that reduced habitat quantity and increased isolation would have increased the probability of regional extinction, in conjunction with environmental stochasticity and H. lucina's dispersal distance. This general trend did not change in a qualitative manner when we modified the ability of dispersing females to stay in, and find suitable habitats (by changing the size of the grid cells used in the model). Contrary to most metapopulation model predictions, system persistence declined with increasing migration rate, suggesting that the mortality of migrating individuals in fragmented landscapes may pose significant risks to system-wide persistence. Based on model predictions for the present landscape we argue that a major programme of habitat restoration would be required for a re-established metapopulation to persist for > 100 years.

Conical Horn Antenna with Spiral Phase Plate for Difference Pattern Generation

This paper describes the performance characteristics and experimental validation of a compact conical horn antenna with a dielectric cylinder spiral phase plate attached at its aperture. This performs the function of a spatial phase imprinting device creating a helical wave-front which results in a null in the far field radiation pattern of the antenna assembly.

A Far-field Pattern Separation Approach for the Synthesis of Directional Modulation Transmitter Arrays (Invited)

In this paper a far-field power pattern separation approach is proposed for the synthesis of directional modulation (DM) transmitter arrays. Separation into information pattern and interference patterns is enabled by far-field pattern null steering. Compared with other DM synthesis methods, e.g., BER-driven DM optimization and orthogonal vector injection, this approach facilitates manipulation of artificial interference spatial distributions. With such capability more interference power can be projected into those most vulnerable to eavesdropping spatial directions in free space, i.e., the information sidelobes. In such a fashion information leaked through radiation sidelobes can be effectively mitigated in a transmitter power efficient manner. The proposed synthesis approach is further validated via bit error rate (BER) simulations.

CD38 expression level and pattern of expression remains a reliable and robust marker of progressive disease in chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) follows a variable clinical course which is difficult to predict at diagnosis. We assessed somatic mutation (SHM) status, CD38 and ZAP-70 expression in 87 patients (49 male, 38 female) with stage A CLL and known cytogenetic profile to compare their role in predicting disease progression, which was assessed by the treatment free interval (TFI) from diagnosis. Sixty (69%) patients were SHM+, 24 (28%) were CD38+ and ten (12%) were ZAP-70+. The median TFI for: (i) SHM + versus SHM- patients was 124 versus 26 months; hazard ratio (HR) = 3.6 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.8 - 7.3; P = 0.001]: (ii) CD38- versus CD38+ patients was 120 versus 34 months; HR = 2.4 (95% CI = 1.4 - 5.3; P = 0.02); and (iii) ZAP70- versus ZAP70+ was 120 versus 16 months; HR = 3.4 (95% CI = 1.4 - 8.7; P = 0.01). SHM status and CD38 retained prognostic significance on multivariate analysis whereas ZAP-70 did not. We conclude that ZAP-70 analysis does not provide additional prognostic information in this group of patients.

Flow Pattern in Compound Channel with Floodplain Double Groyne

The results of an experimental study and velocity analysis of the flow characteristics in the vicinityof a floodplain with two rows of permeable/impermeable groynes in compound channels with oneand two floodplains are presented. A 60% permeable groyne model with three different lengthsrelative to the floodplain width was used. The results showed that double groyne could beconsidered as one groyne (one block) for aspect ratio Sr < 2 (Sr = distance between twosuccessive groynes/groyne length). When Sr > 2, each groyne started to act independently.The velocity reduction was more than 45-52% of the floodplain’s approach velocity compared with30-35% in the case of a single groyne. The significant velocity reduction was located at a distance1.5-2 times the groyne length downstream of the single or the double groynes. Generally, themaximum velocities in the main channel ranged from 1.1 to 1.35 times the original approachingvelocity. The effective groyne relative length and aspect ratio should not to be more than 0.5 and 2,respectively.

Night-to-night variation of pulse oximetry in children with sleep-disordered breathing

BACKGROUND: Sleep-disordered breathing is a common and serious feature of many paediatric conditions and is particularly a problem in children with Down syndrome. Overnight pulse oximetry is recommended as an initial screening test, but it is unclear how overnight oximetry results should be interpreted and how many nights should be recorded.

METHODS: This retrospective observational study evaluated night-to-night variation using statistical measures of repeatability for 214 children referred to a paediatric respiratory clinic, who required overnight oximetry measurements. This included 30 children with Down syndrome. We measured length of adequate trace, basal SpO2, number of desaturations (>4% SpO2 drop for >10 s) per hour ('adjusted index') and time with SpO2<90%. We classified oximetry traces into normal or abnormal based on physiology.

RESULTS: 132 out of 214 (62%) children had three technically adequate nights' oximetry, including 13 out of 30 (43%) children with Down syndrome. Intraclass correlation coefficient for adjusted index was 0.54 (95% CI 0.20 to 0.81) among children with Down syndrome and 0.88 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.91) for children with other diagnoses. Negative predictor value of a negative first night predicting two subsequent negative nights was 0.2 in children with Down syndrome and 0.55 in children with other diagnoses.

CONCLUSIONS: There is substantial night-to-night variation in overnight oximetry readings among children in all clinical groups undergoing overnight oximetry. This is a more pronounced problem in children with Down syndrome. Increasing the number of attempted nights' recording from one to three provides useful additional clinical information.