Encouraging children to think counterfactually enhances blocking in a causal learning task

According to a higher order reasoning account, inferential reasoning processes underpin the widely observed cue competition effect of blocking in causal learning. The inference required for blocking has been described as modus tollens (if p then q, not q therefore not p). Young children are known to have difficulties with this type of inference, but research with adults suggests that this inference is easier if participants think counterfactually. In this study, 100 children (51 five-year-olds and 49 six- to seven-year-olds) were assigned to two types of pretraining groups. The counterfactual group observed demonstrations of cues paired with outcomes and answered questions about what the outcome would have been if the causal status of cues had been different, whereas the factual group answered factual questions about the same demonstrations. Children then completed a causal learning task. Counterfactual pretraining enhanced levels of blocking as well as modus tollens reasoning but only for the younger children. These findings provide new evidence for an important role for inferential reasoning in causal learning.

The development of the experience and anticipation of regret

Although recent studies have established that children experience regret from around 6 years, we do not yet know when the ability to anticipate this emotion emerges, despite the importance of the anticipation of regret in decision-making. We examined whether children will anticipate they will feel regret if they were to find out in a box-choosing game that, had they made a different choice, they would have obtained a better prize. Experiment 1 replicated Guttentag and Ferrell’s study in which children were asked what they hoped was in a non-chosen box. Even 8- to 9-year olds find this question difficult. However, when asked what might make them feel sadder, 7- to 8-year olds (but not younger children) predicted that finding the larger prize in the unchosen box would make them feel this way. In Experiments 2 and 3, children predicted how they would feel if the unchosen box contained either a larger or smaller prize, in order to examine anticipation of both regret and of relief. Although 6- to 7-year olds do experience regret when they find out they could have won a better prize, they do not correctly anticipate feeling this way. By around 8 years, the majority of children are able to anticipate both regret and relief.

Causal knowledge and the development of inductive reasoning

We explored the development of sensitivity to causal relations in children’s inductive reasoning. Children (5-, 8-, and 12-year-olds) and adults were given trials in which they decided whether a property known to be possessed by members of one category was also possessed by members of (a) a taxonomically related category or (b) a causally related category. The direction of the causal link was either predictive (prey → predator) or diagnostic (predator → prey), and the property that participants reasoned about established either a taxonomic or causal context. There was a causal asymmetry effect across all age groups, with more causal choices when the causal link was predictive than when it was diagnostic. Furthermore, context-sensitive causal reasoning showed a curvilinear development, with causal choices being most frequent for 8-year-olds regardless of context. Causal inductions decreased thereafter because 12-year-olds and adults made more taxonomic choices when reasoning in the taxonomic context. These findings suggest that simple causal relations may often be the default knowledge structure in young children’s inductive reasoning, that sensitivity to causal direction is present early on, and that children over-generalize their causal knowledge when reasoning.

Trajectories of Learning Dispositions and Attitudes in Upper Primary Schools in Northern Ireland: What exactly is going on?

There is increasing research and policy interest in the importance of attitudes to learning, learning orientations and learning dispositions (however they are labelled), not only because they influence traditional measures of school achievement but also because they facilitate how well children function at school, with implications for their future learning. This paper reports the findings on pupils’ learning dispositions and attitudes from two separate cohorts of pupils as they progress through upper primary school (Key Stage 2) in 50 schools in Northern Ireland. (These data are drawn from two different longitudinal studies and the data collection period predates the introduction of the new Northern Ireland Curriculum.) Approximately 1200 pupils completed seven scales from the Assessment of Learner-Centred Practices, ALCPs (McCombs and Lauer, 1997) at three time points, at the end of P5 (9 year olds), at the end of P6 (10 years olds) and at the end of P7 (11 year olds). ALCPs draws on an extensive research base that has identified cognitive and motivational dispositions and attitudes that are associated with a positive orientation to learning, and ultimately with positive progress in school (Alexander and Murphy, 1998). Although each scale can be considered separately, the seven scales cluster into two groups: self-efficacy, mastery orientation, active learning strategies and curiosity are all predicted to be pro-learning; and challenge avoidance, work avoidance, and – to a lesser extent – performance orientation, are predicted to be negatively associated with learning. The general trajectory in the children’s self-evaluations shows that they are becoming less pro-learning over time, with significant decreases in their self-ratings of active learning, curiosity, mastery orientation and self-efficacy. At the same time, there is some evidence that they work harder and put more effort into their work but this is not accompanied by maintaining their previous pro-learning motivations and strategies. The pattern is consistently more negative for boys than for girls. There are very few differences between the two cohorts indicating that the pattern is not confined to a specific cohort. These findings are challenging and will be interrogated with regard to two questions – are the changes related to the influence of the children’s school experiences per se or are they more related to developmental differences as children adopt more critical appraisals of their personal attributes and efforts as they get older? Whatever the reason, these learning dispositions and attitudes are important as they contribute significantly to school achievement even when the more traditional predictors like gender and ability are taken into account.

Dietary patterns and cardiovascular risk factors in adolescents and young adults: the Northern Ireland Young Hearts Project

Dietary pattern (DP) analysis allows examination of the combined effects of nutrients and foods on the markers of CVD. Very few studies have examined these relationships during adolescence or young adulthood. Traditional CVD risk biomarkers were analysed in 12-15-year-olds (n 487; Young Hearts (YH)1) and again in the same individuals at 20-25 years of age (n 487; YH3). Based on 7 d diet histories, in the present study, DP analysis was performed using a posteriori principal component analysis for the YH3 cohort and the a priori Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) was calculated for both YH1 and YH3 cohorts. In the a posteriori DP analysis, YH3 participants adhering most closely to the 'healthy' DP were found to have lower pulse wave velocity (PWV) and homocysteine concentrations, the 'sweet tooth' DP were found to have increased LDL concentrations, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure and decreased HDL concentrations, the 'drinker/social' DP were found to have lower LDL and homocysteine concentrations, but exhibited a trend towards a higher TAG concentration, and finally the 'Western' DP were found to have elevated homocysteine and HDL concentrations. In the a priori dietary score analysis, YH3 participants adhering most closely to the Mediterranean diet were found to exhibit a trend towards a lower PWV. MDS did not track between YH1 and YH3, and nor was there a longitudinal relationship between the change in the MDS and the change in CVD risk biomarkers. In conclusion, cross-sectional analysis revealed that some associations between DP and CVD risk biomarkers were already evident in the young adult population, namely the association between the healthy DP (and the MDS) and PWV; however, no longitudinal associations were observed between these relatively short time periods.

The Millennium child with autism: Early childhood trajectories for health, education and economic wellbeing

Objective: Most of what we know about children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is based on post-diagnostic, retrospective, self-select studies. Oftentimes, there is no direct comparison between trajectories of children with ASD and children without ASD.

Methods: To circumvent both of these problems, the present secondary data analysis utilised a large-scale longitudinal general population survey of children born in the year 2000 (i.e. the Millennium Cohort Study; MCS; n=18522). Bi-annual MCS data were available from five data sweeps (children aged 9 months to 11 years of age).

Results: Pre-diagnostic data showed early health problems differentiated children later diagnosed with autism from non-diagnosed peers. Prevalence was much higher than previously estimated (3.5% for 11-year olds). Post-diagnosis, trajectories deteriorated significantly for the children with ASD and their families in relation to education, health and economic wellbeing.

Conclusion: These findings raise many issues for service delivery and the rights of persons with disabilities and their families.

Is the shortened dental arch an underused treatment strategy in the Republic of Ireland?

OBJECTIVES: To determine the proportion of Republic of Ireland 35-44 and 65+ year-olds currently satisfying the criteria for a classic shortened dental arch (SDA) of 20 anterior teeth.

RESEARCH DESIGN: Secondary analysis of data collected in the 2000/02 epidemiological survey of the oral health of Irish adults.

CLINICAL SETTING: Participants underwent a clinical oral examination in health board dental clinics and completed a detailed interview pertaining to dental and general health.

PARTICIPANTS: The analysis is based on a random sample of adults, aged 35 to 44 years (n = 978), and 65 years and older (n = 714).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The SDA was measured as 20 teeth in the mouth in the positions normally described as from the left second premolar to the right second premolar in each arch.

RESULTS: Only one of the 35-44 year-olds and none of the 65+ year-olds had teeth in their mouths in positions normally described as a classic SDA. However, of the 35-44 year old age group only five patients who had at least a premolar dentition of 20 contiguous teeth had been provided with a removable denture compared to one patient from the 65+ years group.

CONCLUSIONS: Very few older patients in the Republic of Ireland have a SDA based on the measure used. However, very few have been provided with removable dentures where they already possess at least a premolar dentition of 20 contiguous teeth. Suggested reasons for this may include limitations of the data recorded, patient preferences and economic factors.

Emotional development among early school-age children: Gender differences in the role of problem behaviours

There has been an increasing focus on social and emotional development in educational programmes in early childhood as both variables are believed to influence behavioural outcomes in the classroom. However, relationships between social and emotional development and behaviour in early childhood have rarely been explored. This article sets out to investigate the conceptualisation of these variables and their inter-relationships. Structural equation models were used to assess if differences exist between boys and girls in relation to social and emotional competences, which could affect the relative success of such programmes. This article is based on cross-sectional data collected from 749 four- to six-year-olds and their teachers. The findings generally supported the hypothesised relationships between social and emotional development variables and prosocial behaviour (including internalising behaviour) for boys and girls. However, some gender differences were noted in externalising behaviour, which teachers often consider to be most significant due to its potentially disruptive nature in the classroom.

Alcohol use and positive screening results for depression and anxiety are highly prevalent among chinese children with strabismus

Purpose: To study associations between strabismus and alcohol use, anxiety, and depression among 10- to 17-year-old children in Guangdong, southern China. Design: Cross-sectional, population-based study. Methods: Among 7537 children aged 6-17 years from 9 randomly selected primary and middle schools, ocular alignment was assessed with the Hirschberg light reflex, cover-uncover testing, and alternate cover testing at distance (6 m) and near (40 cm). Additionally, 4000 children (53.1%) aged 10+ years received self-administered questionnaires containing screening questions on alcohol use, anxiety, and depression. Results: Examinations were completed on 7464 of 7537 subjects (99.0%), including 3928 boys (52.6%), with a mean age of 11.1 ± 1.8 years. The prevalence of any strabismus, including exotropia (2.7%), esotropia (0.2%), and intermittent exotropia (3.9%), was 6.8%. Strabismus was more prevalent in urban students (7.3%) and female subjects (7.4%) compared to rural students (6.0%) and male subjects (6.2%) (all P <.05). In multivariate regression models, any strabismus was associated with older age and rural vs urban residence. Among 3903 children (97.6%) answering questionnaires, history of alcohol use (62.3% vs 36.3%) and positive screening responses for depression (26.0% vs 11.6%) and anxiety (10.3% vs 4.9%) were significantly (P <.01 for all) more common among children with strabismus. Conclusion: These Chinese children with strabismus had a significantly higher prevalence of alcohol use and possible markers of emotional problems than children without strabismus. Further research should focus on the appropriateness of classifying surgical treatment for strabismus as "cosmetic" (ineligible for reimbursement) under China's rural health insurance.

The Development of Regret and Relief About the Outcomes of Risky Decisions

Although a number of studies have examined the developmental emergence of counterfactual emotions of regret and relief, none of these have used tasks that resemble those used with adolescents and adults, which typically involve risky decision making. We examined the development of the counterfactual emotions of regret and relief in two experiments using a task in which children chose between one of two gambles that varied in risk. In regret trials they always received the best prize from that gamble but were then shown that they would have obtained a better prize had they chosen the alternative gamble, whereas in relief trials the other prize was worse. We compared two methods of measuring regret and relief based on children’s reported emotion on discovering the outcome of the alternative gamble, one in which children judged whether they now felt the same, happier, or sadder on seeing the other prize and one in which children made emotion ratings on a 7-point scale after the other prize was revealed. On both these methods, we found that 6- to 7-year-olds’ and 8- to 9-year-olds’ emotions varied appropriately depending on whether the alternative outcome was better or worse than the prize they had actually obtained, although the former method was more sensitive. Our findings indicate that by at least 6-7 years, children experience the same sorts of counterfactual emotions as adults in risky decision making tasks, and also suggest that such emotions are best measured by asking children to make comparative emotion judgments.

Is Longer-Distance Migration Slowing? An Analysis of the Annual Record for England and Wales since the 1970s

This paper is prompted by the widespread acceptance that the rates of inter-county and inter-state migration have been falling in the USA and sets itself the task of examining whether this decline in migration intensities is also the case in the UK. It uses annual inter-area migration matrices available for England and Wales since the 1970s by broad age group. The main methodological challenge, arising from changes in the geography of health areas for which the inter-area flows are given, is addressed by adopting the lowest common denominator of 80 areas. Care is also taken to allow for the effect of economic cycles in producing short-term fluctuations on migration rates and to isolate the effect of a sharp rise in rates for 16-24 year olds in the 1990s, which is presumed to be related to the expansion of higher education. The findings suggest that, unlike for the USA, there has not been a substantial decline in the intensity of internal migration between the first two decades of the study period and the second two. If there has been any major decline in the intensity of address changing in England and Wales, it can only be for the within-area moves that this time series does not cover. This latter possibility is examined in a companion paper using a very different data set (Champion and Shuttleworth, 2016).

Emergence of episodic future though in pre-school aged children

Three experiments examined the development of episodic future thinking: the ability to think ahead about novel future situations (Atance & O’Neill, 2001). Each experiment used three novel tasks, similar to the Blow Football task used by Russell, Alexis, and Clayton (2010). In each, there was a different table top with two sides. Children played a game on one side of a table, and then were asked to choose a tool to play with a similar game on the other side of the table the next day. For example, children used a toy fishing rod to catch magnetic fish on one side of the table; playing the same game from the other side of the table required a different type of fishing rod. At test, children chose between 2 or 3 tools: a) the tool they used today, b) the tool suitable for the other side (correct) and c) a distractor tool which was not suitable for either side. In Experiment 1, 24 four-year-olds selected 1 out of 2 tools for tomorrow. Children selected the correct item above chance level in all tasks (p < 0.001). In Experiment 2, in which children were not allowed to look at the apparatus when choosing, 21 three-year olds selected 1 out of 2 tools for tomorrow. This group also selected the right tool above chance level in all tasks (p < 0.001).The results of Experiments 1 and 2 imply that 3- and 4-year olds might indeed show episodic future foresight. However, they could have also selected the right tool by default. To control for this, a third tool distractor was introduced in Experiment 3. This time, 3-4 year olds did not perform above chance levels, suggesting that there is an alternative explanation as to why they performed so well in the previous two experiments.

Characteristics of change triggered temper outbursts in children with PWS and ASD and how these may impact on the efficacy of behavioural intervention strategies.

Background
Temper outbursts are prevalent in individuals with PWS and are often triggered by unexpected changes to routines or plans. However, such outbursts are also common in individuals with several other neurodevelopmental disorders, including those with a diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). We compared the profile of temper outbursts in children with PWS to that in children with ASD. We examined whether differences in the temper outburst profile predicted differences in the outcomes of two caregiver led intervention strategies aiming to reduce change triggered outbursts.
Methods and results
Thirteen 7-15 year olds with PWS – taking part in a larger study involving 60 children evidencing temper outbursts following changes – were individually matched for age to children with ASD (mean ages: 10.70; 10.76 yrs). Caregivers participated in a structured/semi-structured interview on children's outbursts; completed a web-based outburst diary over a 6 month baseline; and are currently using either a change signalling intervention to reliably warn children of forthcoming changes; or a planning ahead intervention to reduce children's exposure to unexpected changes.
As reported at interview, on average, children with PWS showed more frequent temper outbursts than those with ASD (closer to daily vs. weekly). For seven children with PWS and six with ASD, 60% or more of their temper outbursts were reported to be triggered by changes. Whilst outbursts had similar durations when triggered by changes or by other events in children with PWS; change triggered outbursts in children with ASD were generally shorter. The most commonly reported outburst components in children with PWS included indicators of heightened emotional arousal but this was not the case for children with ASD. Data on behavioural change associated with each of the intervention strategies will be discussed.
Conclusions
Change triggered temper outbursts can be a problem for children PWS and ASD, however subtle differences appear to exist in the profile of these outbursts. Some of these differences may be relevant for the expected efficacy of different behavioural intervention strategies that target outbursts.
Summary
Temper outbursts (tantrums) were compared in children with PWS or autism spectrum disorder before and during use of one of two helping strategies. Helping strategies were led by caregivers and aimed to reduce outbursts that follow changes to routines or plans by making such changes more predictable, or by reducing the quantity of changes. Characteristics of outbursts may be important to help us predict which helping strategies may be most effective.

Effect of radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery on 10-year recurrence and 15-year breast cancer death: meta-analysis of individual patient data for 10,801 women in 17 randomised trials

Background: After breast-conserving surgery, radiotherapy reduces recurrence and breast cancer death, but it may do so more for some groups of women than for others. We describe the absolute magnitude of these reductions according to various prognostic and other patient characteristics, and relate the absolute reduction in 15-year risk of breast cancer death to the absolute reduction in 10-year recurrence risk.
Methods: We undertook a meta-analysis of individual patient data for 10?801 women in 17 randomised trials of radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery, 8337 of whom had pathologically confirmed node-negative (pN0) or node-positive (pN+) disease.
Findings: Overall, radiotherapy reduced the 10-year risk of any (ie, locoregional or distant) first recurrence from 35·0% to 19·3% (absolute reduction 15·7%, 95% CI 13·7–17·7, 2p<0·00001) and reduced the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 25·2% to 21·4% (absolute reduction 3·8%, 1·6–6·0, 2p=0·00005). In women with pN0 disease (n=7287), radiotherapy reduced these risks from 31·0% to 15·6% (absolute recurrence reduction 15·4%, 13·2–17·6, 2p<0·00001) and from 20·5% to 17·2% (absolute mortality reduction 3·3%, 0·8–5·8, 2p=0·005), respectively. In these women with pN0 disease, the absolute recurrence reduction varied according to age, grade, oestrogen-receptor status, tamoxifen use, and extent of surgery, and these characteristics were used to predict large (=20%), intermediate (10–19%), or lower (<10%) absolute reductions in the 10-year recurrence risk. Absolute reductions in 15-year risk of breast cancer death in these three prediction categories were 7·8% (95% CI 3·1–12·5), 1·1% (–2·0 to 4·2), and 0·1% (–7·5 to 7·7) respectively (trend in absolute mortality reduction 2p=0·03). In the few women with pN+ disease (n=1050), radiotherapy reduced the 10-year recurrence risk from 63·7% to 42·5% (absolute reduction 21·2%, 95% CI 14·5–27·9, 2p<0·00001) and the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 51·3% to 42·8% (absolute reduction 8·5%, 1·8–15·2, 2p=0·01). Overall, about one breast cancer death was avoided by year 15 for every four recurrences avoided by year 10, and the mortality reduction did not differ significantly from this overall relationship in any of the three prediction categories for pN0 disease or for pN+ disease.
Interpretation: After breast-conserving surgery, radiotherapy to the conserved breast halves the rate at which the disease recurs and reduces the breast cancer death rate by about a sixth. These proportional benefits vary little between different groups of women. By contrast, the absolute benefits from radiotherapy vary substantially according to the characteristics of the patient and they can be predicted at the time when treatment decisions need to be made.
Funding: Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and UK Medical Research Council.

Objective assessment of cardiopulmonary resuscitation skills of 10-11 year-old schoolchildren using two different external chest compression to ventilation ratios

Study which shows that 10-11 yr olds are capable of effective CPR after a single 2 hour training session using the ABC for Life programme. However they perfrom more effective CPR when using a ratio of 15:2 rather than 30:2 chest compressions : ventilations