Nonlinear time series prediction based on a power-law noise model

In this paper we investigate the influence of a power-law noise model, also called noise, on the performance of a feed-forward neural network used to predict time series. We introduce an optimization procedure that optimizes the parameters the neural networks by maximizing the likelihood function based on the power-law model. We show that our optimization procedure minimizes the mean squared leading to an optimal prediction. Further, we present numerical results applying method to time series from the logistic map and the annual number of sunspots demonstrate that a power-law noise model gives better results than a Gaussian model.

Creating a spontaneous conversational speech corpus

Speech recognition and language analysis of spontaneous speech arising in naturally spoken conversations are becoming the subject of much research. However, there is a shortage of spontaneous speech corpora that are freely available for academics. We therefore undertook the building of a natural conversation speech database, recording over 200 hours of conversations in English by over 600 local university students. With few exceptions, the students used their own cell phones from their own rooms or homes to speak to one another, and they were permitted to speak on any topic they chose. Although they knew that they were being recorded and that they would receive a small payment, their conversations in the corpus are probably very close to being natural and spontaneous. This paper describes a detailed case study of the problems we faced and the methods we used to make the recordings and control the collection of these social science data on a limited budget.

The POINT-AGAPE survey: 4 high signal-to-noise microlensing candidates detected towards M 31

We have carried out a survey of the Andromeda galaxy for unresolved microlensing (pixel lensing). We present a subset of four short timescale, high signal-to-noise microlensing candidates found by imposing severe selection criteria: the source flux variation exceeds the flux of an R = 21 magnitude star and the full width at half maximum timescale is less than 25 days. Remarkably, in three out of four cases, we have been able to measure or strongly constrain the Einstein crossing time of the event. One event, which lies projected on the M 31 bulge, is almost certainly due to a stellar lens in the bulge of M 31. The other three candidates can be explained either by stars in M 31 and M 32 or by MACHOs.

Spontaneous intramedullary apoptosis is present in disorders other than myelodysplasia

Myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) is a group of hematopoietic disorders characterized by peripheral cytopenias in the presence of normo- or hypercellular dysplastic marrow. It has been suggested that premature intramedullary apoptosis may contribute to this phenomenon. We used terminal dUTP nick-end labeling (TUNEL) of bone marrow biopsy specimens and cytocentrifuge preparations from patients with MDS and a variety of other hematopoietic disorders to determine whether there is increased intramedullary apoptosis in MDS and whether any such effect is specific to MDS. TUNEL labeling of bone marrow from 24 patients with MDS revealed significant positivity in 10 of 11 patients with refractory anemia (RA), five of seven with RA and excess of blasts (RAEB), all three patients with RAEB in transformation (RAEB-t), and all three patients with RA with ring sideroblasts (RARS). The percent of positive cells ranged from 5 to 50% but showed no apparent correlation with morphological subtype. In a series of 29 patients with acute leukemia, 17 showed significant positivity (13 of 13 with myeloid disease: three M1, seven M2, one M3, two M4; four of 16 patients with lymphoid disease: one Burkitt-type lymphoma, two null acute leukemia, and one common acute lymphoid leukemia). Intramedullary apoptosis was associated with myeloid or early committed progenitor cells and was highest in secondary acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Normal bone marrow samples from 12 individuals showed no evidence of apoptosis. Our results suggest that an increased level of intramedullary apoptosis is apparent in both patients with MDS and those with AML; those with secondary AML have the highest levels. The relative absence of such findings in lymphoid malignancy suggests that the apoptotic pathways are different in this lineage.