How Outcomes Are Defined in Clinical Trials of Mechanically Ventilated Adults and Children

Systematic reviews have considerable potential to provide evidence-based data to aid clinical decision-making. However, there is growing recognition that trials involving mechanical ventilation lack consistency in the definition and measurement of ventilation outcomes, creating difficulties in combining data for meta-analyses. To address the inconsistency in outcome definitions, international standards for trial registration and clinical trial protocols published recommendations, effectively setting the “gold standard” for reporting trial outcomes. In this Critical Care Perspective, we review the problems resulting from inconsistent outcome definitions and inconsistent reporting of outcomes (outcome sets). We present data highlighting the variability of the most commonly reported ventilation outcome definitions. Ventilation outcomes reported in trials over the last 6 years typically fall into four domains: measures of ventilator dependence; adverse outcomes; mortality; and resource use. We highlight the need, first, for agreement on outcome definitions and, second, for a minimum core outcome set for trials involving mechanical ventilation. A minimum core outcome set would not restrict trialists from measuring additional outcomes, but would overcome problems of variability in outcome selection, measurement, and reporting, thereby enhancing comparisons across trials.

Neonatal intensive care and late preterm infants:Health and family functioning at three years

Background: Late preterm infants (LPIs), born at 34 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks of gestation contribute a significant proportion of all neonatal intensive care (NIC) admissions and are regarded as being at risk of adverse outcomes compared to term-born infants.

Aim: To explore the health outcomes and family functioning of LPIs who required neonatal intensive care, at three years of age.

Study design and subjects: This cohort study included 225 children born late preterm, between 1 January and 31 December 2006 in Northern Ireland. Children admitted for NIC (study group, n = 103) were compared with children who did not require NIC or who required special care only for up to three days (comparison group, n = 122).

Outcome measures
Health outcomes were measured using the Health Status Questionnaire, health service usage by parent report and family functioning using the PedsQL™ Family Impact Module.

Results: LPIs who required NIC revealed similar health outcomes at three years in comparison to those who did not. Despite this, more parents of LPIs who required NIC reported visiting their GP and medical specialists during their child's third year of life. Differences in family functioning were also observed with mothers of LPIs who required NIC reporting, significantly lower levels of social and physical functioning, increased difficulties with communication and increased levels of worry.

Conclusions: LPIs were observed to have similar health outcomes at three years of age regardless of NIC requirement. The increase in GP and medical specialist visits and family functioning difficulties observed among those infants who required NIC merits further investigation.

Abbreviations: LPI, late preterm infant; NIC, neonatal intensive care; HSQ, Health Status Questionnaire; GP, general practitioner

When does information about causal structure improve statistical reasoning?

Base rate neglect on the mammography problem can be overcome by explicitly presenting a causal basis for the typically vague false-positive statistic. One account of this causal facilitation effect is that people make probabilistic judgements over intuitive causal models parameterized with the evidence in the problem. Poorly defined or difficult-to-map evidence interferes with this process, leading to errors in statistical reasoning. To assess whether the construction of parameterized causal representations is an intuitive or deliberative process, in Experiment 1 we combined a secondary load paradigm with manipulations of the presence or absence of an alternative cause in typical statistical reasoning problems. We found limited effects of a secondary load, no evidence that information about an alternative cause improves statistical reasoning, but some evidence that it reduces base rate neglect errors. In Experiments 2 and 3 where we did not impose a load, we observed causal facilitation effects. The amount of Bayesian responding in the causal conditions was impervious to the presence of a load (Experiment 1) and to the precise statistical information that was presented (Experiment 3). However, we found less Bayesian responding in the causal condition than previously reported. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings and the suggestion that there may be population effects in the accuracy of statistical reasoning.

Gaussian States in Quantum Information

These notes originated out of a set of lectures in Quantum Optics and Quantum Information given by one of us (MGAP) at the University of Napoli and the University of Milano. A quite broad set of issues are covered, ranging from elementary concepts to current research topics, and from fundamental concepts to applications. A special emphasis has been given to the phase space analysis of quantum dynamics and to the role of Gaussian states in continuous variable quantum information.

Scotland, Renewable Energy and the Independence Debate: Will Head or Heart Rule the Roost?

Political support for renewable energy development, especially offshore renewables, is particularly conspicuous in Scotland and is a centrepiece of SNP policy. However, this is built on something of a paradox because, put simply, without the subsidies paid by electricity consumers in the rest of the UK, the Scottish Government's ambitious targets for renewable energy would be politically unachievable. We argue in this paper that if Scotland does move towards independence, then there could be little reason for the UK to continue paying (much) of the subsidies since the resulting renewable generation would no longer contribute towards UK renewable energy targets. We suggest that the potential scenarios, and their implications, needs to be far better considered in the arguments around the Scottish constitutional position and the broader aims of UK energy policy.

Lightweight Risk Management in Agile projects

Risk management in software engineering has become a recognized project management practice but it seems that not all companies are systematically applying it. At the same time, agile methods have become popular, partly because proponents claim that agile methods implicitly reduce risks due
to, for example, more frequent and earlier feedback, shorter periods of development time and easier prediction of cost. Therefore, there is a need to investigate how risk management can be usable in iterative and evolutionary software development processes. This paper investigates the gathering of empirical data on risk management from the project environment and presents
a novel approach to manage risk in agile projects. Our approach is based on a prototype tool, Agile Risk Tool (ART). This tool reduces human effort in risk management by using software agents to identify, assess and monitor risk, based on input and data collected from the project environment and by applying
some designated rules. As validation, groups of student project data were used to provide evidence of the efficacy of this approach. We demonstrate the approach and the feasibility of using a lightweight risk management tool to alert, assess and monitor risk with reduced human effort.

Biomarkers in nutrition: new frontiers in research and application

Nutritional biomarkers-biochemical, functional, or clinical indices of nutrient intake, status, or functional effects--are needed to support evidence-based clinical guidance and effective health programs and policies related to food, nutrition, and health. Such indices can reveal information about biological or physiological responses to dietary behavior or pathogenic processes, and can be used to monitor responses to therapeutic interventions and to provide information on interindividual differences in response to diet and nutrition. Many nutritional biomarkers are available; yet there has been no formal mechanism to establish consensus regarding the optimal biomarkers for particular nutrients and applications.

Significance Driven Computation on Next-Generation Unreliable Platforms

In this paper, we propose a design paradigm for energy efficient and variation-aware operation of next-generation multicore heterogeneous platforms. The main idea behind the proposed approach lies on the observation that not all operations are equally important in shaping the output quality of various applications and of the overall system. Based on such an observation, we suggest that all levels of the software design stack, including the programming model, compiler, operating system (OS) and run-time system should identify the critical tasks and ensure correct operation of such tasks by assigning them to dynamically adjusted reliable cores/units. Specifically, based on error rates and operating conditions identified by a sense-and-adapt (SeA) unit, the OS selects and sets the right mode of operation of the overall system. The run-time system identifies the critical/less-critical tasks based on special directives and schedules them to the appropriate units that are dynamically adjusted for highly-accurate/approximate operation by tuning their voltage/frequency. Units that execute less significant operations can operate at voltages less than what is required for correct operation and consume less power, if required, since such tasks do not need to be always exact as opposed to the critical ones. Such scheme can lead to energy efficient and reliable operation, while reducing the design cost and overheads of conventional circuit/micro-architecture level techniques.

Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age

The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological 14C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

Falls prevention and support:: translating research, integrating services and promoting the contribution of service users for quality and innovative programmes of care

Falls are a significant threat to the safety, health and independence of older citizens. Despite the substantial evidence that is available around effective falls prevention programmes and interventions, their translation into falls reduction programmes and policies has yet to be fully realised. While hip fracture rates are decreasing, the number and incidence of fall-related hospital admissions among older people continue to rise. Given the demographic trends that highlight increasing numbers of older people in the UK, which is broadly reflected internationally, there is a financial and social imperative to minimise the rate of falls and associated injuries. Falling is closely aligned to growing older (Slips, Trips and Falls Update: From Acute and Community Hospitals and Mental Health Units in England and Wales, Department of Health, HMSO, London, 2010). According to the World Health Organization, around 30% of older people aged over 65 and 50% of those over 80 will fall each year (Falls Fact Sheet Number 344, WHO, Geneva, 2010). Falls happen as a result of many reasons and can have harmful consequences, including loss of mobility and independence, confidence and in many cases even death (Cochrane Database Syst Rev 15, 2009, 146; Slips, Trips and Falls Update: From Acute and Community Hospitals and Mental Health Units in England and Wales, Department of Health, HMSO, London, 2010; Falling Standards, Broken Promises: Report of the National
Audit of Falls and Bone Health in Older People 2010, Health Care Quality
Improvement Partnership, London, 2011). What is neither fair nor correct is the
common belief by old and young alike that falls are just another inconvenience to put up with. The available evidence justifiably supports the view that well-organised services, based upon national standards and expert guidance, can prevent future falls among older people and reduce death and disability from fractures. This paper will draw from the UK, as an exemplar for policy and practice, to discuss the strategic direction of falls prevention programmes for older people and the partnerships that need to exist between researchers, service providers and users of services to translate evidence to the clinical setting. Second, it will propose some mechanisms for disseminating evidence to healthcare professionals and other stakeholders, to improve the quality and capacity of the clinical workforce.

The G20 and Monetary Policy Stasis

Since the financial crash of 2008 monetary policy has been in a state of stasis – a condition in which things are not changing, moving, or progressing, but rather appear frozen. Interest rates have been frozen at low levels for a considerable period time. Inflation targets have consistently been missed, through phases of both overshooting and undershooting. At the same time, a variety of unconventional monetary policies involving asset purchases and liquidity provision have been pursued. Questions have been raised from a variety of sources, including various international organizations, covering distinct BIS and IMF positions about the continuing validity and sustainability of existing monetary policy frameworks, not least because inflation targeting has ceased to act as reliable guide for policy for over six years. Despite this central banks have been reluctant to debate moving to a new formal policy framework. This article argues that as an apex policy forum only the G20 leaders’ summits has the necessary political authority to call their central banks to account and initiate a wide ranging debate on the future of monetary policy. A case is made for convening a monetary policy working group to discuss a range of positions, including those of the BIS and IMF, and to make recommendations, because the G20 has been most effective in displaying international financial leadership, when leaders have convened and made use of specialist working groups.

Integração de evidências em redes credais e a regra de Jeffrey

Credal networks provide a scheme for dealing with imprecise probabilistic models. The inference algorithms often used in credal networks compute the interval of the posterior probability of an event of interest given evidence of the specific kind -- evidence that describe the current state of a set of variables. These algorithms do not perform evidential reasoning in case of the evidence must be processed according to the conditioning rule proposed by RC Jeffrey. This paper describes a procedure to integrate evidence with Jeffrey's rule when performing inferences with credal nets.

Successful balance training is associated with improved multisensory function in fall-prone older adults

Balance maintenance relies on a complex interplay between many different sensory modalities. Although optimal multisensory processing is thought to decline with ageing, inefficient integration is particularly associated with falls in older adults. We investigated whether improved balance control, following a novel balance training intervention, was associated with more efficient multisensory integration in older adults, particularly those who have fallen in the past. Specifically, 76 healthy and fall-prone older adults were allocated to either a balance training programme conducted over 5 weeks or to a passive control condition. Balance training involved a VR display in which the on-screen position of a target object was controlled by shifts in postural balance on a Wii balance board. Susceptibility to the sound-induced flash illusion, before and after the intervention (or control condition), was used as a measure of multisensory function. Whilst balance and postural control improved for all participants assigned to the Intervention group, improved functional balance was correlated with more efficient multisensory processing in the fall-prone older adults only. Our findings add to growing evidence suggesting important links between balance control and multisensory interactions in the ageing brain and have implications for the development of interventions designed to reduce the risk of falls.

Animal models of diabetic retinopathy

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a major cause of visual impairment worldwide. The precise pathogenesis of this diabetic complication remains ill-defined and this is reflected in the limited options for preventing development and progression of this disease. The value of animal models to understand and treat human disease is well recognised and this chapter focuses on the range of in vivo model systems that are available for studying DR. These models have been developed over many decades and utilised to aid our understanding of what causes DR, about how microvascular and neural lesions develop and to provide evidence for key cellular and molecular mechanisms that drive this pathology. A wide range of animal models of DR are currently available, each with advantages and disadvantages that need to be understood and evaluated for their scientific and clinical value. As transgenic and imaging technology improves, more models will be developed and they will continue to play a critical role in the development of new therapeutic approaches to DR by providing robust, preclinical evidence prior to clinical trial.

Spiritual capital and democratization in Zimbabwe:A case study of a progressive charismatic congregation

Throughout Africa, charismatic Christianity has been caricatured as an inhibitor of democratization. Its adherents are said either to withdraw from the rough and tumble of politics ('pietism') or to preach a prosperity gospel that encourages believers to pour their resources into their churches in the hope that God will 'bless' them. Both courses of action are said to encourage such people to be politically quietist, with no interest in democratization or other forms of political activity. This is said to thwart democratization. This article utilizes an ethnographic case study of a 'progressive' charismatic congregation in Harare, Zimbabwe, in 2007, to provide evidence that 'pietism' and 'prosperity' are not the only options for charismatic Christianity. Drawing on the concept of 'spiritual capital', it argues that some varieties of charismatic Christianity have the resources to contribute to democratization. For example, this congregation's self-styled 'de-institutionalization' process is opening up new avenues for people to learn democratic skills and develop a worldview that is relationship-centred, participatory, and anti-authoritarian. The article concludes that spiritual capital can be a useful tool for analysing the role of religions in democratizations. It notes, however, that analysts should take care to identify and understand what variety of spiritual capital is generated in particular situations, focusing on the worldviews it produces and the consequences of those worldviews for democratization. © 2009 Taylor & Francis.