Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Background: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.

Methods: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.
Findings: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women.

Interpretation: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.

Metabolically-inactive glucagon-like peptide-1(9-36)amide confers selective protective actions against post-myocardial infarction remodelling

BACKGROUND: Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) therapies are routinely used for glycaemic control in diabetes and their emerging cardiovascular actions have been a major recent research focus. In addition to GLP-1 receptor activation, the metabolically-inactive breakdown product, GLP-1(9-36)amide, also appears to exert notable cardiovascular effects, including protection against acute cardiac ischaemia. Here, we specifically studied the influence of GLP-1(9-36)amide on chronic post-myocardial infarction (MI) remodelling, which is a major driver of heart failure progression.

METHODS: Adult female C57BL/6 J mice were subjected to permanent coronary artery ligation or sham surgery prior to continuous infusion with GLP-1(9-36)amide or vehicle control for 4 weeks.

RESULTS: Infarct size was similar between groups with no effect of GLP-1(9-36)amide on MI-induced cardiac hypertrophy, although modest reduction of in vitro phenylephrine-induced H9c2 cardiomyoblast hypertrophy was observed. Whilst echocardiographic systolic dysfunction post-MI remained unchanged, diastolic dysfunction (decreased mitral valve E/A ratio, increased E wave deceleration rate) was improved by GLP-1(9-36)amide treatment. This was associated with modulation of genes related to extracellular matrix turnover (MMP-2, MMP-9, TIMP-2), although interstitial fibrosis and pro-fibrotic gene expression were unaltered by GLP-1(9-36)amide. Cardiac macrophage infiltration was also reduced by GLP-1(9-36)amide together with pro-inflammatory cytokine expression (IL-1β, IL-6, MCP-1), whilst in vitro studies using RAW264.7 macrophages revealed global potentiation of basal pro-inflammatory and tissue protective cytokines (e.g. IL-1β, TNF-α, IL-10, Fizz1) in the presence of GLP-1(9-36)amide versus exendin-4.

CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that GLP-1(9-36)amide confers selective protection against post-MI remodelling via preferential preservation of diastolic function, most likely due to modulation of infiltrating macrophages, indicating that this often overlooked GLP-1 breakdown product may exert significant actions in this setting which should be considered in the context of GLP-1 therapy in patients with cardiovascular disease.