4 ◦C and beyond: what did this mean for biodiversity in the past?

How do the predicted climatic changes (IPCC, 2007) for the next century compare in magnitude and rate to those that Earth has previously encountered? Are there comparable intervals of rapid rates of temperature change, sea-level rise and levels of atmospheric CO2 that can be used as analogues to assess possible biotic responses to future change? Or are we stepping into the great unknown? This perspective article focuses on intervals in time in the fossil record when atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased up to 1200 ppmv, temperatures in mid- to high-latitudes increased by greater than 4 ?C within 60 years, and sea levels rose by up to 3 m higher than present. For these intervals in time, case studies of past biotic responses are presented to demonstrate the scale and impact of the magnitude and rate of such climate changes on biodiversity. We argue that although the underlying mechanisms responsible for these past changes in climate were very different (i.e. natural processes rather than anthropogenic), the rates and magnitude of climate change are similar to those predicted for the future and therefore potentially relevant to understanding future biotic response. What emerges from these past records is evidence for rapid community turnover, migrations, development of novel ecosystems and thresholds from one stable ecosystem state to another, but there is very little evidence for broad-scale extinctions due to a warming world. Based on this evidence from the fossil record, we make four recommendations for future climate-change integrated conservation strategies.

Simulated predator extinctions: Predator identity affects survival and recruitment of oysters

The rate of species loss is increasing at a global scale, and human-induced extinctions are biased toward predator species. We examined the effects of predator extinctions on a foundation species, the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica). We performed a factorial experiment manipulating the presence and abundance of three of the most common predatory crabs, the blue crab (Callinectes sapidus), stone crab (Menippe mercenaria), and mud crab (Panopeus herbstii) in estuaries in the eastern United States. We tested the effects of species richness and identity of predators on juvenile oyster survival, oyster recruitment, and organic matter content of sediment. We also manipulated the density of each of the predators and controlled for the loss of biomass of species by maintaining a constant mass of predators in one set of treatments and simultaneously using an additive design. This design allowed us to test the density dependence of our results and test for functional compensation by other species. The identity of predator species, but not richness, affected oyster populations. The loss of blue crabs, alone or in combination with either of the other species, affected the survival rate of juvenile oysters. Blue crabs and stone crabs both affected oyster recruitment and sediment organic matter negatively. Mud crabs at higher than ambient densities, however, could fulfill some of the functions of blue and stone crabs, suggesting a level of ecological redundancy. Importantly, the strong effects of blue crabs in all processes measured no longer occurred when individuals were present at higher-than-ambient densities. Their role as dominant predator is, therefore, dependent on their density within the system and the density of other species within their guild (e.g., mud crabs). Our findings support the hypothesis that the effects of species loss at higher trophic levels are determined by predator identity and are subject to complex intraguild interactions that are largely density dependent. Understanding the role of biodiversity in ecosystem functioning or addressing practical concerns, such as loss of predators owing to overharvesting, remains complicated because accurate predictions require detailed knowledge of the system and should be drawn from sound experimental evidence, not based on observations or generalized models.

Deforestation and apparent extinctions of endemic forest beetles in Madagascar

Madagascar has lost about half of its forest cover since 1953 with much regional variation, for instance most of the coastal lowland forests have been cleared. We sampled the endemic forest dwelling Helictopleurini dung beetles across Madagascar during 2002–2006. Our samples include 29 of the 51 previously known species for which locality information is available. The most significant factor explaining apparent extinctions (species not collected by us) is forest loss within the historical range of the focal species, suggesting that deforestation has already caused the extinction, or effective extinction, of a large number of insect species with small geographical ranges, typical for many endemic taxa in Madagascar. Currently, roughly 10% of the original forest cover remains. Species–area considerations suggest that this will allow roughly half of the species to persist. Our results are consistent with this prediction.

Maximizing the Localized Relaxation: The Origin of the Outstanding Oxygen Storage Capacity of kappa-Ce2Zr2O8

Pretty vacant: The excellent oxygen storage capacity (OSC) of ?-Ce2Zr2O8 (see picture; Ce gray, Zr green, O red) is shown to be a result of its unique structural features; after removing oxygen atoms, the structural relaxation is local (vacancy shown in brown), and both the localized structural relaxation and the number of localized structural relaxations are maximized.

Genomes of "phiKMV-like viruses" of Pseudomonas aeruginosa contain localized single-strand interruptions

The "phiKMV-like viruses" comprise an important genus of T7 related phages infecting Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The genomes of these bacteriophages have localized single-strand interruptions (nicks), a distinguishing genomic trait previously thought to be unique for T5 related coliphages. Analysis of this feature in the newly sequenced phage fkF77 shows all four nicks to be localized on the non-coding DNA strand. They are present with high frequencies within the phage population and are introduced into the phage DNA at late stages of the lytic cycle. The general consensus sequence in the nicks (5'-CGACxxxxxCCTAoh pCTCCGG-3') was shown to be common among all phiKMV-related phages.

Refugial persistence and postglacial recolonization of North America by the cold-tolerant herbaceous plant Orthilia secunda

Previous phylogeographical and palaeontological studies on the biota of northern North America have revealed a complex scenario of glacial survival in multiple refugia and differing patterns of postglacial recolonization. Many putative refugial regions have been proposed both north and south of the ice sheets for species during the Last Glacial Maximum, but the locations of many of these refugia remain a topic of great debate. In this study, we used a phylogeographical approach to elucidate the refugial and recolonization history of the herbaceous plant species Orthilia secunda in North America, which is found in disjunct areas in the west and east of the continent, most of which were either glaciated or lay close to the limits of the ice sheets. Analysis of 596-bp of the chloroplast trnS-trnG intergenic spacer and five microsatellite loci in 84 populations spanning the species' range in North America suggests that O.secunda persisted through the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in western refugia, even though palaeodistribution modelling indicated a suitable climate envelope across the entire south of the continent. The present distribution of the species has resulted from recolonization from refugia north and south of the ice sheets, most likely in Beringia or coastal regions of Alaska and British Columbia, the Washington/Oregon region in the northwest USA, and possibly from the region associated with the putative 'ice-free corridor' between the Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheets. Our findings also highlight the importance of the Pacific Northwest as an important centre of intraspecific genetic diversity, owing to a combination of refugial persistence in the area and recolonization from other refugia.