Flexible paleoclimate age-depth models using an autoregressive gamma process

Radiocarbon dating is routinely used in paleoecology to build chronolo- gies of lake and peat sediments, aiming at inferring a model that would relate the sediment depth with its age. We present a new approach for chronology building (called “Bacon”) that has received enthusiastic attention by paleoecologists. Our methodology is based on controlling core accumulation rates using a gamma autoregressive semiparametric model with an arbitrary number of subdivisions along the sediment. Using prior knowledge about accumulation rates is crucial and informative priors are routinely used. Since many sediment cores are currently analyzed, using different data sets and prior distributions, a robust (adaptive) MCMC is very useful. We use the t-walk (Christen and Fox, 2010), a self adjusting, robust MCMC sampling algorithm, that works acceptably well in many situations. Outliers are also addressed using a recent approach that considers a Student-t model for radiocarbon data. Two examples are presented here, that of a peat core and a core from a lake, and our results are compared with other approaches.

Distance limits to intermediate- and high-velocity clouds

We present optical spectra of 403 stars and quasi-stellar objects in order to obtain distance limits towards intermediate- and high-velocity clouds (IHVCs), including new Fibre-fed Extended Range Optical Spectrograph (FEROS) observations plus archival ELODIE, FEROS, High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer (HIRES) and Ultraviolet and Visual Echelle Spectrograph (UVES) data. The non-detection of Ca II K interstellar (IS) absorption at a velocity of −130 to −60 km s−1 towards HDE 248894 (d ∼ 3 kpc) and HDE 256725 (d ∼ 8 kpc) in data at signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) > 450 provides a new firm lower distance limit of 8 kpc for the anti-centre shell HVC. Similarly, the non-detection of Ca II K IS absorption towards HD 86248 at S/N ∼ 500 places a lower distance limit of 7.6 kpc for Complex EP, unsurprising since this feature is probably related to the Magellanic System. The lack of detection of Na I D at S/N = 35 towards Mrk 595 puts an improved upper limit for the Na I column density of log (NNaD <) 10.95 cm−2 towards this part of the Cohen Stream where Ca II was detected by Wakker et al. Absorption at ∼ −40 km s−1 is detected in Na I D towards the Galactic star PG 0039+049 at S/N = 75, placing a firm upper distance limit of 1 kpc for the intermediate-velocity cloud south (IVS), where a tentative detection had previously been obtained by Centurion et al. Ca ´ II K and Na I D absorption is detected at −53 km s−1 towards HD 93521, which confirms the upper distance limit of 2.4 kpc for part of the IV arch complex obtained using the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) data by Danly. Towards HD 216411 in Complex H a non-detection in Na D towards gas with log(NH I) = 20.69 cm−2 puts a lower distance limit of 6.6 kpc towards this HVC complex. Additionally, Na I D absorption is detected at −43.7 km s−1 in the star HD 218915 at a distance of 5.0 kpc in gas in the same region of the sky as Complex H. Finally, the Na I/Ca II and Ca II/H I ratios of the current sample are found to lie in the range observed for previous studies of IHVCs.

Lawyers in a Divided Society: Legal Culture and Legal Services in Northern Ireland",

Also published as Ch. 9 in Tomorrow's Lawyers (ed. P. Thomas) Oxford: Blackwell 1992. (With M. Fox.)

The type IIb SN 2008ax: the nature of the progenitor

A source coincident with the position of the type IIb supernova (SN) 2008ax is identified in pre-explosion Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 observations in three optical filters. We identify and constrain two possible progenitor systems: (i) a single massive star that lost most of its hydrogen envelope through radiatively driven mass-loss processes, prior to exploding as a helium-rich Wolf-Rayet star with a residual hydrogen envelope, and (ii) an interacting binary in a low-mass cluster producing a stripped progenitor. Late time, high-resolution observations along with detailed modelling of the SN will be required to reveal the true nature of this progenitor star.

SN 2004A: another type II-P supernova with a red supergiant progenitor

We present a monitoring study of SN 2004A and probable discovery of a progenitor star in pre-explosion Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images. The photometric and spectroscopic monitoring of SN 2004A show that it was a normal Type II-P which was discovered in NGC 6207 about two weeks after explosion. We compare SN 2004A to the similar Type II-P SN 1999em and estimate an explosion epoch of 2004 January 6. We also calculate three new distances to NGC 6207 of 21.0 +/- 4.3, 21.4 +/- 3.5 and 25.1 +/- 1.7 Mpc. The former was calculated using the Standard Candle Method (SCM) for SNe II-P, and the latter two from the brightest supergiants method (BSM). We combine these three distances with existing kinematic distances, to derive a mean value of 20.3 +/- 3.4 Mpc. Using this distance, we estimate that the ejected nickel mass in the explosion is 0.046(-0.017)(+0.031) M-circle dot. The progenitor of SN 2004A is identified in pre-explosion WFPC2 F814W images with a magnitude of m(F814W) = 24.3 +/- 0.3, but is below the detection limit of the F606W images. We show that this was likely a red supergiant (RSG) with a mass of 9(-2)(+3) M-circle dot. The object is detected at 4.7 sigma above the background noise. Even if this detection is spurious, the 5 sigma upper limit would give a robust upper mass limit of 12M(circle dot) for a RSG progenitor. These initial masses are very similar to those of two previously identified RSG progenitors of the Type II-P SNe 2004gd (8(-2)(+4) M circle dot) and 2005cs (9(-2)(+3) M-circle dot).

Interaction strengths in food webs: issues and opportunities

1. Recent efforts to understand how the patterning of interaction strength affects both structure and dynamics in food webs have highlighted several obstacles to productive synthesis. Issues arise with respect to goals and driving questions, methods and approaches, and placing results in the context of broader ecological theory.

Plasma HDL cholesterol and risk of myocardial infarction: A mendelian randomisation study

Background: High plasma HDL cholesterol is associated with reduced risk of myocardial infarction, but whether this association is causal is unclear. Exploiting the fact that genotypes are randomly assigned at meiosis, are independent of non-genetic confounding, and are unmodified by disease processes, mendelian random isation can be used to test the hypothesis that the association of a plasma biomarker with disease is causal.
Methods: We performed two mendelian randomisation analyses. First, we used as an instrument a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the endothelial lipase gene (LIPG Asn396Ser) and tested this SNP in 20 studies (20 913 myocardial infarction cases, 95 407 controls). Second, we used as an instrument a genetic score consisting of 14 common SNPs that exclusively associate with HDL cholesterol and tested this score in up to 12 482 cases of myocardial infarction and 41 331 controls. As a positive control, we also tested a genetic score of 13 common SNPs exclusively associated with LDL cholesterol.
Findings: Carriers of the LIPG 396Ser allele (2·6% frequency) had higher HDL cholesterol (0·14 mmol/L higher p=8×10-13) but similar levels of other lipid and non-lipid risk factors for myocardial infarction compared with noncarriers. This difference in HDL cholesterol is expected to decrease risk of myocardial infarction by 13% (odds ratio [OR] 0·87, 95% CI 0·84-0·91). However, we noted that the 396Ser allele was not associated with risk of myocardial infarction (OR 0·99, 95% CI 0·88-1·11, p=0·85). From observational epidemiology, an increase of 1 SD in HDL cholesterol was associated with reduced risk of myocardial infarction (OR 0·62, 95% CI 0·58-0·66). However, a 1 SD increase in HDL cholesterol due to genetic score was not associated with risk of myocardial infarction (OR 0·93 95% CI 0·68-1·26, p=0·63). For LDL cholesterol, the estimate from observational epidemiology (a 1 SD increase in LDL cholesterol associated with OR 1·54, 95% CI 1·45-1·63) was concordant with that from genetic score (OR 2·13 95% CI 1·69-2·69, p=2×10 -10).
Interpretation: Some genetic mechanisms that raise plasma HDL cholesterol do not seem to lower risk of myocardial infarction. These data challenge the concept that raising of plasma HDL cholesterol will uniformly translate into reductions in risk of myocardial infarction.

Assessing the extent to which temporal changes in waterbird community composition are driven by either local, regional or global factors.

1. Lough Neagh and Lough Beg Special Protection Area (SPA, hereafter Lough Neagh) is an important non-estuarine site in Britain and Ireland for overwintering wildfowl. Multivariate analysis of the winter counts showed a state-shift in the waterbird community following winter 2000/2001, mostly due to rapid declines in abundance (46–57% declines in the mean mid-winter January counts between 1993–2000 and 2002–2009) of members of the diving duck guild (pochard Aythya ferina, tufted duck Aythya fuligula and goldeneye Bucephala clangula) and coot (Fulica atra), a submerged macrophyte feeder.
2. Only pochard showed correlations between declines at Lough Neagh and those of overall species flyway population indices to suggest that global changes could contribute to declines at the site. However, indices from the Republic of Ireland showed no overall decline in the rest of Ireland. Tufted duck indices at the site were inversely related to indices in Great Britain. Lough Neagh goldeneye indices were positively correlated with indices in the Republic of Ireland and Great Britain, suggesting that short-stopping could contribute to declines at the site. Coot declines at Lough Neagh did not correlate with trends elsewhere, suggesting local factors involved in the decline.
3. These analyses indicate that although there are potentially different explanations for the dramatic declines in these four waterbird species at this site, the simultaneous nature of the declines across two feeding guilds strongly
suggest that local factors (such as loss of submerged macrophytes and benthic invertebrates) were involved. An assessment of the food supply, local disturbance and other factors at Lough Neagh is required to find an explanation for the observed adverse trends in wintering numbers of the affected species.
4. This study highlights the potential of waterbird community structure to reflect the status of aquatic systems, but confirms the need to establish site-specific factors responsible for the observed changes in abundance of key waterbird species at a site.

Minimizing side reactions in chemoenzymatic dynamic kinetic resolution: organometallic and material strategies

Chemoenzymatic dynamic kinetic resolution (DKR) of rac-1-phenyl ethanol into R-1-phenylethanol acetate was investigated with emphasis on the minimization of side reactions. The organometallic hydrogen transfer (racemization) catalyst was varied, and this was observed to alter the rate and extent of oxidation of the alcohol to form ketone side products. The performance of highly active catalyst [(pentamethylcyclopentadienyl) IrCl2(1-benzyl,3-methyl-imidazol-2-ylidene)] was found to depend on the batch of lipase B used. The interaction between the bio- and chemo-catalysts was reduced by employing physical entrapment of the enzyme in silica using a sol-gel process. The nature of the gelation method was found to be important, with an alkaline method preferred, as an acidic method was found to initiate a further side reaction, the acid catalyzed dehydration of the secondary alcohol. The acidic gel was found to be a heterogeneous solid acid.

The Role of Variation at AβPP, PSEN1, PSEN2, and MAPT in Late Onset Alzheimer's Disease

Rare mutations in AßPP, PSEN1, and PSEN2 cause uncommon early onset forms of Alzheimer's disease (AD), and common variants in MAPT are associated with risk of other neurodegenerative disorders. We sought to establish whether common genetic variation in these genes confer risk to the common form of AD which occurs later in life (>65 years). We therefore tested single-nucleotide polymorphisms at these loci for association with late-onset AD (LOAD) in a large case-control sample consisting of 3,940 cases and 13,373 controls. Single-marker analysis did not identify any variants that reached genome-wide significance, a result which is supported by other recent genome-wide association studies. However, we did observe a significant association at the MAPT locus using a gene-wide approach (p = 0.009). We also observed suggestive association between AD and the marker rs9468, which defines the H1 haplotype, an extended haplotype that spans the MAPT gene and has previously been implicated in other neurodegenerative disorders including Parkinson's disease, progressive supranuclear palsy, and corticobasal degeneration. In summary common variants at AßPP, PSEN1, and PSEN2 and MAPT are unlikely to make strong contributions to susceptibility for LOAD. However, the gene-wide effect observed at MAPT indicates a possible contribution to disease risk which requires further study.

Demersal fish biodiversity: species-level indicators and trends-based targets for the Marine Strategy Framework Directive

The maintenance of biodiversity is a fundamental theme of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Appropriate indicators to monitor change in biodiversity, along with associated targets representing "good environmental status" (GES), are required to be in place by July 2012. A method for selecting species-specific metrics to fulfil various specified indicator roles is proposed for demersal fish communities. Available data frequently do not extend far enough back in time to allow GES to be defined empirically. In such situations, trends-based targets offer a pragmatic solution. A method is proposed for setting indicator-level targets for the number of species-specific metrics required to meet their trends-based metric-level targets. This is based on demonstrating significant departures from the binomial distribution. The procedure is trialled using North Sea demersal fish survey data. Although fisheries management in the North Sea has improved in recent decades, management goals to stop further decline in biodiversity, and to initiate recovery, are yet to be met.

NO-loaded Zn2+-exchanged zeolite materials: A potential bifunctional anti-bacterial strategy

Nitric oxide (NO) is important for the regulation of a number of diverse biological processes, including vascular tone, neurotransmission, inflammatory cell responsiveness, defence against invading pathogens and wound healing. Transition metal exchanged zeolites are nanoporous materials with high-capacity storage properties for gases such as NO. The NO stores are liberated upon contact with aqueous environments, thereby making them ideal candidates for use in biological and clinical settings. Here, we demonstrate the NO release capacity and powerful bactericidal properties of a novel NO-storing Zn2+-exchanged zeolite material at a 50 wt.% composition in a polytetrafluoroethylene polymer. Further to our published data showing the anti-thrombotic effects of a similar NO-loaded zeolite, this study demonstrates the antibacterial properties of NO-releasing zeolites against clinically relevant strains of bacteria, namely Gram-negative Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Gram-positive methicillin-sensitive and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Clostridium difficile. Thus our study highlights the potential of NO-loaded zeolites as biocompatible medical device coatings with anti-infective properties. (C) 2009 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.