The Great Recession and the changing distribution of economic vulnerability by social class:The Irish case

Ireland provides an interesting case study of the distributional consequences of the Great Recession. To explore such effects we develop a measure of economic vulnerability based on a multidimensional risk profile for income poverty, material deprivation and economic stress. In the context of conflicting expectations of trends in social class differentials, we provide a comparison of pre and post-recession periods. Our analysis reveals a doubling of levels of economic vulnerability and a significant change in multidimensional profiles. Income poverty became less closely associated with material deprivation and economic stress and the degree of polarization between vulnerable and non-vulnerable classes was significantly reduced. Economic vulnerability is highly stratified by social class for both pre and post-recession periods. Focusing on absolute change, the main contrast is between the salariat and the non-agricultural self-employed and the remaining classes; providing some support for notions of polarization. In terms of relative change the higher salariat, the non-agricultural self-employed, the semi-unskilled manual and those who never worked gained relative to the remaining classes. This provides support the notion of ‘middle class squeeze’. The changing relationship between social class and household work intensity reflected a similar pattern. The impact of the latter on economic vulnerability declined sharply, while it came to play an increasing role in mediating the impact of membership of the non-agricultural middle classes. Responding to the political pressures likely to be associated with ‘middle class squeeze’ while sustaining the social welfare arrangements that have traditionally protected the economically vulnerable presents formidable challenges in terms of maintaining social cohesion and political legitimacy.

Neural correlates of task switching in paternal 15q11-q13 deletion Prader-Willi syndrome

We report a first study of brain activity linked to task switching in individuals with Prader-Willi syndrome (PWS) PWS individuals show a specific cognitive deficit in task switching which may be associated with the display of temper outbursts and repetitive questioning The performance of participants with PWS and typically developing controls was matched in a cued task switching procedure and brain activity was contrasted on switching and non switching blocks using SARI Individuals with PWS did not show the typical frontal-parietal pattern of neural activity associated with switching blocks, with significantly reduced activation in regions of the posterior parietal and ventromedial prefrontal cortices We suggest that this is linked to a difficulty in PWS in setting appropriate attentional weights to enable task set reconfiguration In addition to this, PWS individuals did not show the typical pattern of deactivation, with significantly less deactivation in an anterior region of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex One plausible explanation for this is that individuals with PWS show dysfunction within the default mode network which has been linked to attentional control The data point to functional changes in the neural circuitry supporting task switching in PWS even when behavioural performance is matched to controls and thus highlight neural mechanisms that may be involved in a specific pathway between genes cognition and behaviour (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Heterogeneity assumptions in the specification of bargaining models: a study of household level trade-offs between commuting time and salary

With many real world decisions being made in conjunction with other decision makers, or single agent decisions having an influence on other members of the decision maker's immediate entourage, there is strong interest in studying the relative weight assigned to different agents in such contexts. In the present paper, we focus on the case of one member of a two person household being asked to make choices affecting the travel time and salary of both members. We highlight the presence of significant heterogeneity across individuals not just in their underlying sensitivities, but also in the relative weight they assign to their partner, and show how this weight varies across attributes. This is in contrast to existing work which uses weights assigned to individual agents at the level of the overall utility rather than for individual attributes. We also show clear evidence of a risk of confounding between heterogeneity in marginal sensitivities and heterogeneity in the weights assigned to each member. We show how this can lead to misleading model results, and argue that this may also explain past results showing bargaining or weight parameters outside the usual [0,1] range in more traditional joint decision making contexts. In terms of substantive results, we find that male respondents place more weight on their partner's travel time, while female respondents place more weight on their partner's salary.

Gene Sets Net Correlations Analysis (GSNCA): a multivariate differential coexpression test for gene sets

Motivation: To date, Gene Set Analysis (GSA) approaches primarily focus on identifying differentially expressed gene sets (pathways). Methods for identifying differentially coexpressed pathways also exist but are mostly based on aggregated pairwise correlations, or other pairwise measures of coexpression. Instead, we propose Gene Sets Net Correlations Analysis (GSNCA), a multivariate differential coexpression test that accounts for the complete correlation structure between genes.

Results: In GSNCA, weight factors are assigned to genes in proportion to the genes' cross-correlations (intergene correlations). The problem of finding the weight vectors is formulated as an eigenvector problem with a unique solution. GSNCA tests the null hypothesis that for a gene set there is no difference in the weight vectors of the genes between two conditions. In simulation studies and the analyses of experimental data, we demonstrate that GSNCA, indeed, captures changes in the structure of genes' cross-correlations rather than differences in the averaged pairwise correlations. Thus, GSNCA infers differences in coexpression networks, however, bypassing method-dependent steps of network inference. As an additional result from GSNCA, we define hub genes as genes with the largest weights and show that these genes correspond frequently to major and specific pathway regulators, as well as to genes that are most affected by the biological difference between two conditions. In summary, GSNCA is a new approach for the analysis of differentially coexpressed pathways that also evaluates the importance of the genes in the pathways, thus providing unique information that may result in the generation of novel biological hypotheses.

Potential of Microneedles in Enhancing Delivery of Photosensitising Agents for Photodynamic Therapy

Photodynamic therapy can be used in the treatment of pre-malignant and malignant diseases. It offers advantages over other therapies currently used in the treatment of skin lesions including avoidance of damage to surrounding tissue and minimal or no scarring. Unfortunately, systemic delivery of photosensitising agents can result in adverse effects, such as prolonged cutaneous photosensitivity; while topical administration lacks efficacy in the clearance of deeper skin lesions and those with a thick overlying keratotic layer. Therefore, enhancement of conventional photosensitiser delivery is desired. However, the physicochemical properties of photosensitising agents, such as extreme hydrophilicity or lipophilicity and large molecular weights make this challenging. This paper reviews the potential of microneedles as a viable method to overcome these delivery-limiting physicochemical characteristics and discusses the current benefits and limitations of solid, dissolving and hydrogel-forming microneedles. Clinical studies in which microneedles have successfully improved photodynamic therapy are also discussed, along with benefits which microneedles offer, such as precise photosensitiser localisation, painless application and reduction in waiting times between photosensitiser administration and irradiation highlighted.

Optical coherence tomography for the diagnosis, monitoring and guiding of treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration:a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND: Age-related macular degeneration is the most common cause of sight impairment in the UK. In neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD), vision worsens rapidly (over weeks) due to abnormal blood vessels developing that leak fluid and blood at the macula.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the optimal role of optical coherence tomography (OCT) in diagnosing people newly presenting with suspected nAMD and monitoring those previously diagnosed with the disease.

DATA SOURCES: Databases searched: MEDLINE (1946 to March 2013), MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations (March 2013), EMBASE (1988 to March 2013), Biosciences Information Service (1995 to March 2013), Science Citation Index (1995 to March 2013), The Cochrane Library (Issue 2 2013), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (inception to March 2013), Medion (inception to March 2013), Health Technology Assessment database (inception to March 2013).

REVIEW METHODS: Types of studies: direct/indirect studies reporting diagnostic outcomes.

INDEX TEST: time domain optical coherence tomography (TD-OCT) or spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT).

COMPARATORS: clinical evaluation, visual acuity, Amsler grid, colour fundus photographs, infrared reflectance, red-free images/blue reflectance, fundus autofluorescence imaging, indocyanine green angiography, preferential hyperacuity perimetry, microperimetry. Reference standard: fundus fluorescein angiography (FFA). Risk of bias was assessed using quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies, version 2. Meta-analysis models were fitted using hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves. A Markov model was developed (65-year-old cohort, nAMD prevalence 70%), with nine strategies for diagnosis and/or monitoring, and cost-utility analysis conducted. NHS and Personal Social Services perspective was adopted. Costs (2011/12 prices) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were discounted (3.5%). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS: In pooled estimates of diagnostic studies (all TD-OCT), sensitivity and specificity [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 88% (46% to 98%) and 78% (64% to 88%) respectively. For monitoring, the pooled sensitivity and specificity (95% CI) was 85% (72% to 93%) and 48% (30% to 67%) respectively. The FFA for diagnosis and nurse-technician-led monitoring strategy had the lowest cost (£39,769; QALYs 10.473) and dominated all others except FFA for diagnosis and ophthalmologist-led monitoring (£44,649; QALYs 10.575; incremental cost-effectiveness ratio £47,768). The least costly strategy had a 46.4% probability of being cost-effective at £30,000 willingness-to-pay threshold.

LIMITATIONS: Very few studies provided sufficient information for inclusion in meta-analyses. Only a few studies reported other tests; for some tests no studies were identified. The modelling was hampered by a lack of data on the diagnostic accuracy of strategies involving several tests.

CONCLUSIONS: Based on a small body of evidence of variable quality, OCT had high sensitivity and moderate specificity for diagnosis, and relatively high sensitivity but low specificity for monitoring. Strategies involving OCT alone for diagnosis and/or monitoring were unlikely to be cost-effective. Further research is required on (i) the performance of SD-OCT compared with FFA, especially for monitoring but also for diagnosis; (ii) the performance of strategies involving combinations/sequences of tests, for diagnosis and monitoring; (iii) the likelihood of active and inactive nAMD becoming inactive or active respectively; and (iv) assessment of treatment-associated utility weights (e.g. decrements), through a preference-based study.

STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012001930.

FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

AGWAN: A Generative Model for Labelled, Weighted Graphs

Real-world graphs or networks tend to exhibit a well-known set of properties, such as heavy-tailed degree distributions, clustering and community formation. Much effort has been directed into creating realistic and tractable models for unlabelled graphs, which has yielded insights into graph structure and evolution. Recently, attention has moved to creating models for labelled graphs: many real-world graphs are labelled with both discrete and numeric attributes. In this paper, we presentAgwan (Attribute Graphs: Weighted and Numeric), a generative model for random graphs with discrete labels and weighted edges. The model is easily generalised to edges labelled with an arbitrary number of numeric attributes. We include algorithms for fitting the parameters of the Agwanmodel to real-world graphs and for generating random graphs from the model. Using real-world directed and undirected graphs as input, we compare our approach to state-of-the-art random labelled graph generators and draw conclusions about the contribution of discrete vertex labels and edge weights to graph structure.

Ageing through Austerity: critical perspectives from Ireland

The book’s main contribution is the bringing together of varied discourses concerning the social policy impact of ageing within the context of fiscal austerity. As the editors rightly state, the economic recession has sharpened the focus of governments on the implication of demographic ageing. It is vital therefore, that the social policy implications of societal ageing are studied and understood within a wider political economy of austerity. Of course the fiscal crisis of the 1970s and the ensuing first wave of neo-liberalism in the Anglo-Saxon countries [in the 1980s] gave us a foretaste of the various ways in which the public burden thesis has been applied with great force to the older population. This recession is different, certainly in Ireland, but a combination of neo-liberal ideology and neo-classical economics is enforcing severe budgetary constraint on a range of countries (within and outside of the Eurozone) in the name of funding deficits. Policy makers appear to be disinterested in both the origins of the 2008 financial crisis and the distributional consequences of their austerity policies. In the absence of official concern social science research has a key role to play.

Docking the value of pigmeat? Prevalence and financial implications of welfare lesions in Irish slaughter pigs.

Expansion of the meat inspection process to incorporate animal-based welfare measurements could contribute towards significant improvements in pig (Sus scrofa domesticus) welfare and farm profitability. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of different welfare-related lesions on the carcase and their relationship with carcase condemnations (CC) and carcase weight (CW). The financial implications of losses associated with CC and CW reductions related to the welfare lesions were also estimated. Data on tail lesions, loin bruising and bursitis, CW and condemnation/trimming outcome (and associated weights) were collected for 3,537slaughter pigs (mean [± SEM] carcase weight: 79.2 [± 8.82] kg). Overall, 72.5% of pigs had detectable tail lesions, whilst 16.0 and 44.0% were affected by severe loin bruising and hind limb bursitis, respectively. There were 2.5% of study carcases condemned and a further 3.3% were trimmed. The primary cause of CC was abscessation. While tail lesion severity did not increase the risk of abscessation, it was significantly associated with CC. Male pigs had a higher risk of tail lesions and of CC. The financial loss to producers associated with CC and trimmings was estimated at €1.10 per study pig. CW was reduced by up to 12 kg in cases of severe tail lesions. However, even mild lesions were associated with a significant reduction in CW of 1.2 kg. The value of the loss in potential CW associated with tail lesions was €0.59 per study pig. Combined with losses attributable to CC and trimmings this represented a loss of 43% of the profit margin per pig, at the time of the study, attributable to tail biting. These findings illustrate the magnitude of the impact of tail biting on pig welfare and on profitability of the pig industry. They also emphasise the potential contribution that the inclusion of welfare parameters at meat inspection could make to pig producers in informing herd health and welfare management plans.

A Characteristic Function Approach to Inconsistency Measures for Knowledge Bases.

Knowledge is an important component in many intelligent systems.
Since items of knowledge in a knowledge base can be conflicting, especially if
there are multiple sources contributing to the knowledge in this base, significant
research efforts have been made on developing inconsistency measures for
knowledge bases and on developing merging approaches. Most of these efforts
start with flat knowledge bases. However, in many real-world applications, items
of knowledge are not perceived with equal importance, rather, weights (which
can be used to indicate the importance or priority) are associated with items of
knowledge. Therefore, measuring the inconsistency of a knowledge base with
weighted formulae as well as their merging is an important but difficult task. In
this paper, we derive a numerical characteristic function from each knowledge
base with weighted formulae, based on the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence.
Using these functions, we are able to measure the inconsistency of the knowledge
base in a convenient and rational way, and are able to merge multiple knowledge
bases with weighted formulae, even if knowledge in these bases may be
inconsistent. Furthermore, by examining whether multiple knowledge bases are
dependent or independent, they can be combined in different ways using their
characteristic functions, which cannot be handled (or at least have never been
considered) in classic knowledge based merging approaches in the literature.

Coherence and discontinuity in the scaling of species' distribution patterns

The spatial distribution of a species can be characterized at many different spatial scales, from fine-scale measures of local population density to coarse-scale geographical-range structure. Previous studies have shown a degree of correlation in species' distribution patterns across narrow ranges of scales, making it possible to predict fine-scale properties from coarser-scale distributions. To test the limits of such extrapolation, we have compiled distributional information on 16 species of British plants, at scales ranging across six orders of magnitude in linear resolution (1 in to 100 km). As expected, the correlation between patterns at different spatial scales tends to degrade as the scales become more widely separated. There is, however, an abrupt breakdown in cross-scale correlations across intermediate (ca. 0.5 km) scales, suggesting that local and regional patterns are influenced by essentially non-overlapping sets of processes. The scaling discontinuity may also reflect characteristic scales of human land use in Britain, suggesting a novel method for analysing the 'footprint' of humanity on a landscape.

Evaluating environmental enrichment options for commercial broiler chickens

Implications Provision of environmental enrichment in line with that required by welfare-based quality assurance schemesdoes not always appear to lead to clear improvements in broiler chicken welfare. This research perhaps serves to highlightthe deficit in information regarding the ‘real world’ implications of enrichment with perches, string and straw bales.

Introduction Earlier work showed that provision of natural light and straw bales improved leg health in commercial broilerchickens (Bailie et al., 2013). This research aimed to determine if additional welfare benefits were shown in windowedhouses by increasing straw bale provision (Study 1), or by providing perches and string in addition to straw bales (Study 2).

Material and methods Commercial windowed houses in Northern Ireland containing ~23,000 broiler chickens (placed inhouses as hatched) were used in this research which took place in 2011. In Study 1 two houses on a single farm wereassigned to one of two treatments: (1) 30 straw bales per house (1 bale/44m2), or (2) 45 straw bales per house (1bale/29m2). Bales of wheat straw, each measuring 80cm x 40cm x 40cm were provided from day 10 of the rearing cycle,as in Bailie et al. (2013). Treatments were replicated over 6 production cycles (using 276,000 Ross 308 and Cobb birds),and were swapped between houses in each replicate. In Study 2, four houses on a single farm were assigned to 1 of 4treatments in a 2 x 2 factorial design. Treatments involved 2 levels of access to perches (present (24/house), or absent), and2 levels of access to string (present (24/house), or absent), and both types of enrichment were provided from the start of thecycle. Each perch consisted of a horizontal, wooden beam (300 cm x 5 cm x 5cm) with a rounded upper edge resting on 2supports (15 cm high). In the string treatment, 6 pieces of white nylon string (60 cm x 10 mm) were tied at their mid-pointto the wire above each of 4 feeder lines. Thirty straw bales were also provided per house from day 10. This study wasreplicated over 4 production cycles using 368,000 Ross 308 birds. In both studies behaviour was observed between 0900and 1800 hours in weeks 3-5 of the cycle. In Study 1, 8 focal birds were selected in each house each week, and generalactivity, exploratory and social behaviours recorded directly for 10 minutes. In Study 2, 10 minute video recordings weremade of 6 different areas (that did not contain enrichment) of each house each week. The percentage of birds engaged inlocomotion or standing was determined through scan sampling these recordings at 120 second intervals. Four perches andfour pieces of string were filmed for 25 mins in each house that contained these enrichments on one day per week. The totalnumber of times the perch or string was used was recorded, along with the duration of each bout. In both studies, gaitscores (0 (perfect) to 5 (unable to walk)) and latency to lie (measured in seconds from when a bird had been encouraged tostand) were recorded in 25 birds in each house each week. Farm and abattoir records were also used in both studies todetermine the number of birds culled for leg and other problems, mortality levels, slaughter weights, and levels of pododermatitis and hock burn. Data were analysed using SPSS (version 20.0) and treatment and age effects on behaviouralparameters were determined in normally distributed data using ANOVA (‘Straw bale density*week’, or‘string*perches*week’ as appropriate), and in non-normally distributed data using Kuskall-Wallace tests (P<0.05 forsignificance) . Treatment (but not age) effects on performance and health data were determined using the same testsdepending on normality of data.

Results Average slaughter weight, and levels of mortality, culling, hock burn and pododermatitis were not affected bytreatment in either study (P<0.05). In Study 1 straw bale (SB) density had no significant effect on the frequency orduration of behaviours including standing, walking, ground pecking, dust bathing, pecking at bales or aggression, or onaverage gait score (P>0.05). However, the average latency to lie was greater when fewer SB were provided (30SB 23.38s,45SB 18.62s, P<0.01). In Study 2 there was an interaction between perches (Pe) and age in lying behaviour, with higherpercentages of birds observed lying in the Pe treatment during weeks 4 and 5 (week 3 +Pe 77.0 -Pe 80.9, week 4 +Pe 79.5 -Pe 75.2, week 5 +Pe 78.4 -Pe 76.2, P<0.02). There was also a significant interaction between string (S) and age inlocomotory behaviour, with higher percentages of birds observed in locomotion in the string treatment during week 3 butnot weeks 4 and 5 (week 3 +S 4.9 -S 3.9, week 4 +S 3.3 -S 3.7, week 5 +S 2.6 -S 2.8, P<0.04). There was also aninteraction between S and age in average gait scores, with lower gait scores in the string treatment in weeks 3 and 5 (week3: +S 0.7, -S 0.9, week 4: +S 1.5, -S 1.4, week 5: +S 1.9, -S 2.0, P<0.05). On average per 25 min observation there were15.1 (±13.6) bouts of perching and 19.2 (±14.08) bouts of string pecking, lasting 117.4 (±92.7) and 4.2 (±2.0) s for perchesand string, respectively.

Conclusion Increasing straw bale levels from 1 bale/44m2 to 1 bale/29m2 floor space does not appear to lead to significantimprovements in the welfare of broilers in windowed houses. The frequent use of perches and string suggests that thesestimuli have the potential to improve welfare. Provision of string also appeared to positively influence walking ability.However, this effect was numerically small, was only shown in certain weeks and was not reflected in the latency to lie.Further research on optimum design and level of provision of enrichment items for broiler chickens is warranted. Thisshould include measures of overall levels of activity (both in the vicinity of, and away from, enrichment items).

Retrieving Regions of Interest for User Exploration

We consider an application scenario where points of interest (PoIs) each have a web presence and where a web user wants to iden- tify a region that contains relevant PoIs that are relevant to a set of keywords, e.g., in preparation for deciding where to go to conve- niently explore the PoIs. Motivated by this, we propose the length- constrained maximum-sum region (LCMSR) query that returns a spatial-network region that is located within a general region of in- terest, that does not exceed a given size constraint, and that best matches query keywords. Such a query maximizes the total weight of the PoIs in it w.r.t. the query keywords. We show that it is NP- hard to answer this query. We develop an approximation algorithm with a (5 + ǫ) approximation ratio utilizing a technique that scales node weights into integers. We also propose a more efficient heuris- tic algorithm and a greedy algorithm. Empirical studies on real data offer detailed insight into the accuracy of the proposed algorithms and show that the proposed algorithms are capable of computingresults efficiently and effectively.

Design and physicochemical characterisation of novel dissolving polymeric microneedle arrays for transdermal delivery of high dose, low molecular weight drugs

We describe formulation and evaluation of novel dissolving polymeric microneedle (MN) arrays for the facilitated delivery of low molecular weight, high dose drugs. Ibuprofen sodium was used as the model here and was successfully formulated at approximately 50% w/w in the dry state using the copolymer poly(methylvinylether/maleic acid). These MNs were robust and effectively penetrated skin in vitro, dissolving rapidly to deliver the incorporated drug. The delivery of 1.5mg ibuprofen sodium, the theoretical mass of ibuprofen sodium contained within the dry MN alone, was vastly exceeded, indicating extensive delivery of the drug loaded into the baseplates. Indeed in in vitro transdermal delivery studies, approximately 33mg (90%) of the drug initially loaded into the arrays was delivered over 24h. Iontophoresis produced no meaningful increase in delivery. Biocompatibility studies and in vivo rat skin tolerance experiments raised no concerns. The blood plasma ibuprofen sodium concentrations achieved in rats (263μgml(-1) at the 24h time point) were approximately 20 times greater than the human therapeutic plasma level. By simplistic extrapolation of average weights from rats to humans, a MN patch design of no greater than 10cm(2) could cautiously be estimated to deliver therapeutically-relevant concentrations of ibuprofen sodium in humans. This work, therefore, represents a significant progression in exploitation of MN for successful transdermal delivery of a much wider range of drugs.

Extreme learning machines for virtual metrology and etch rate prediction

Virtual metrology (VM) aims to predict metrology values using sensor data from production equipment and physical metrology values of preceding samples. VM is a promising technology for the semiconductor manufacturing industry as it can reduce the frequency of in-line metrology operations and provide supportive information for other operations such as fault detection, predictive maintenance and run-to-run control. Methods with minimal user intervention are required to perform VM in a real-time industrial process. In this paper we propose extreme learning machines (ELM) as a competitive alternative to popular methods like lasso and ridge regression for developing VM models. In addition, we propose a new way to choose the hidden layer weights of ELMs that leads to an improvement in its prediction performance.