Climate Change Adaptation for Conservation in Madagascar

Madagascar's imperilled biota are now experiencing the effects of a new threat—climate change (Raxworthy et al. 2008). With more than 90% endemism among plants, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, the stakes are high. The pristine landscapes that allowed this exceptional biodiversity to survive past climate changes are largely gone. Deforestation has claimed approximately 90% of the island's natural forest (Ingram & Dawson 2005; Harper et al. 2007) and what remains is highly fragmented, providing a poor template for large-scale species range shifts. The impacts of current and future climate change may therefore be much different than past impacts, with profound implications for biodiversity.
We review evidence of past response to climate change, models of future change and projected biological response, developing insights to formulate adaptation actions for reducing extinction in Madagascar's biota. We then explore the cost of implementing actions and examine new income opportunities developing through efforts to mitigate climate change.

Panel unit root tests in the presence of cross-sectional dependence: finite sample performance and an application

This paper examines the finite sample properties of three testing regimes for the null hypothesis of a panel unit root against stationary alternatives in the presence of cross-sectional correlation. The regimes of Bai and Ng (2004), Moon and Perron (2004) and Pesaran (2007) are assessed in the presence of multiple factors and also other non-standard situations. The behaviour of some information criteria used to determine the number of factors in a panel is examined and new information criteria with improved properties in small-N panels proposed. An application to the efficient markets hypothesis is also provided. The null hypothesis of a panel random walk is not rejected by any of the tests, supporting the efficient markets hypothesis in the financial services sector of the Australian Stock Exchange.

PANEL DATA UNIT ROOT TEST WITH FIXED TIME DIMENSION

The consideration of the limit theory in which T is fixed and N is allowed to go to infinity improves the finite-sample properties of the tests and avoids the imposition of the relative rates at which T and N go to infinity.

Applying species distribution modelling to identify areas of high conservation value for endangered species: A case study using Margaritifera margaritifera (L.)

The development and implementation of a population supplementation and restoration plan for any endangered species should involve an understanding of the species’ habitat requirements prior to the release of any captive bred individuals. The freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera, has undergone dramatic declines over the last century and is now globally endangered. In Northern Ireland, the release of captive bred individuals is being used to support wild populations and repatriate the species in areas where it once existed. We employed a combination of maximum entropy modelling (MAXENT) and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) to identify ecological parameters necessary to support wild populations using GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale environmental parameters. The GIS-based landscape scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with altitude and soil characteristics including the carbon, clay, sand, and silt content. Notably, mussels were associated with a relatively narrow band of variance indicating that M. margaritifera has a highly specific landscape niche. The ground-truthed habitat scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with stable consolidated substrates, the extent of bankside trees, presence of indicative macrophyte species and fast flowing water. We propose a three phase conservation strategy for M. margaritifera identifying suitable areas within rivers that (i) have a high conservation value yet needing habitat restoration at a local level, (ii) sites for population supplementation of existing populations and (iii) sites for species reintroduction to rivers where the mussel historically occurred but is now locally extinct. A combined analytical approach including GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale models provides a robust method by which suitable release sites can be identified for the population supplementation and restoration of an endangered species. Our results will be highly influential in the future management of M. margaritifera in Northern Ireland.

Conservation genetics of Neotropical pollinators revisited: microsatellite analysis suggests that diploid males are rare in orchid bees

Allozyme analyses have suggested that Neotropical orchid bee (Euglossini) pollinators are vulnerable because of putative high frequencies of diploid males, a result of loss of sex allele diversity in small hymenopteran populations with single locus complementary sex determination. Our analysis of 1010 males from 27 species of euglossine bees sampled across the Neotropics at 2-11 polymorphic microsatellite loci revealed only 5 diploid males at an overall frequency of 0.005 (95% CIs 0.002-0.010); errors through genetic non-detection of diploid males were likely small. In contrast to allozyme-based studies, we detected very weak or insignificant population genetic structure, even for a pair of populations >500 km apart, possibly accounting for low diploid male frequencies. Technical flaws in previous allozyme-based analyses have probably led to considerable overestimation of diploid male production in orchid bees. Other factors may have a more immediate impact on population persistence than the genetic load imposed by diploid males on these important Neotropical pollinators.

Microsatellite standardization and evaluation of genotyping error in a large multi-partner research programme for conservation of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.).

Microsatellite genotyping is a common DNA characterization technique in population, ecological and evolutionary genetics research. Since different alleles are sized relative to internal size-standards, different laboratories must calibrate and standardize allelic designations when exchanging data. This interchange of microsatellite data can often prove problematic. Here, 16 microsatellite loci were calibrated and standardized for the Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, across 12 laboratories. Although inconsistencies were observed, particularly due to differences between migration of DNA fragments and actual allelic size ('size shifts'), inter-laboratory calibration was successful. Standardization also allowed an assessment of the degree and partitioning of genotyping error. Notably, the global allelic error rate was reduced from 0.05 ± 0.01 prior to calibration to 0.01 ± 0.002 post-calibration. Most errors were found to occur during analysis (i.e. when size-calling alleles; the mean proportion of all errors that were analytical errors across loci was 0.58 after calibration). No evidence was found of an association between the degree of error and allelic size range of a locus, number of alleles, nor repeat type, nor was there evidence that genotyping errors were more prevalent when a laboratory analyzed samples outside of the usual geographic area they encounter. The microsatellite calibration between laboratories presented here will be especially important for genetic assignment of marine-caught Atlantic salmon, enabling analysis of marine mortality, a major factor in the observed declines of this highly valued species.

Modelling distributional trends to inform conservation strategies for endangered species

Aim: Species loss has increased significantly over the last 1000 years and is ultimately attributed to the direct and indirect consequences of increased human population growth across the planet. A growing number of species are becoming endangered and require human intervention to prevent their local extirpation or complete extinction. Management strategies aimed at mitigating a species loss can benefit greatly from empirical approaches that indicate the rate of decline of a species providing objective information on the need for immediate conservation actions, e.g. captive breeding; however, this is rarely employed. The current study used a novel method to examine the distributional trends of a model endangered species, the freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera (L.).
Location: United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland.
Methods: Using species presence data within 10-km grid squares since records began three-parameter logistic regression curves were fitted to extrapolate an estimated date of regional extinction.
Results: This study has shown that freshwater pearl mussel distribution has contracted since known historical records and outlier populations were lost first. Within the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland, distribution loss has been greatest in Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and England, respectively, with the Republic of Ireland containing the highest relative proportion of M. margaritifera distribution, in 1998.
Main conclusions: This study provides empirical evidence that this species could become extinct throughout countries within the United Kingdom within 170 years under the current trends and emphasizes that regionally specific management strategies need to be implemented to prevent extirpation of this species.

Assessing the conservation status of the freshwater pearl mussel in the North of Ireland - Relevance of growth and age characteristics

In order to conserve the freshwater pearl mussel in Ireland, populations that have a high risk of extinction must he identified and given priority for conservation. Growth of freshwater pearl mussels has been found to vary among populations on a wide geographic scale as well as on a local scale. Populations having a high growth constant (k), because of the small size of individuals and their shorter life-span and thus lower reproductive output, may be more likely to become extinct than those which have a low k and hence larger size and greater reproductive output. This study attempts to estimate the growth constant (k) in rivers in Donegal and Northern Ireland based on measuring lire largest shell in each population. Large differences in values of k were found among rivers and these are discussed in relation to catchment bedrock types and the identification of conservation priorities. Appropriate conservation strategies are recommended for Margaritifera margaritifera populations in the north of Ireland.

Towards a strategy for the conservation of the freshwater pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera in County Donegal, Ireland

This study attempts to identify the habitat requirements of the pearl mussel Margaritifea margaritifera in County Donegal, in north west Ireland, an area with little urban, industrial or intensive agricultural development. No mussels occur in rivers where calcium and conductivity levels are high or where the substratum is predominantly bedrock or fine sediment but it was not possible to distinguish clearly between mussel and non-mussel sites on the basis of ordination analysis. However, rivers which still support mussels and rivers with historical records of mussels are loosely grouped. Rivers which formerly supported mussels but lack living M. margaritifera appear to have suitable habitat for mussels; pearl fishing is the most likely reason for the extinction of these mussel populations. Where population densities are high, for example in locations on the rivers Eske, Clady and Owenea, conservation may necessitate the establishment of reserves. The prospect for the successful reintroduction of mussels into former mussel rivers such as the Finn and Eany Water, where suitable habitat exists and water quality is high, is very good.