Economic modelling of antenatal screening and ultrasound scanning programmes for identification of fetal abnormalities

Objective Within the framework of a health technology assessment and using an economic model, to determine the most clinically and cost effective policy of scanning and screening for fetal abnormalities in early pregnancy. Design A discrete event simulation model of 50,000 singleton pregnancies. Setting Maternity services in Scotland. Population Women during the first 24 weeks of their pregnancy. Methods The mathematical model was populated with data on uptake of screening, prevalence, detection and false positive rates for eight fetal abnormalities and with costs for ultrasound scanning and serum screening. Inclusion of abnormalities was based on the relative prevalence and clinical importance of conditions and the availability of data. Six strategies for the identification of abnormalities prenatally including combinations of first and second trimester ultrasound scanning and first and second trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities were compared. Main outcome measures The number of abnormalities detected and missed, the number of iatrogenic losses resulting from invasive tests, the total cost of strategies and the cost per abnormality detected were compared between strategies. Results First trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities costs more than second trimester screening but results in fewer iatrogenic losses. Strategies which include a second trimester ultrasound scan result in more abnormalities being detected and have lower costs per anomaly detected. Conclusions The preferred strategy includes both first and second trimester ultrasound scans and a first trimester screening test for chromosomal abnormalities. It has been recommended that this policy is offered to all women in Scotland.

Applying an Agility/Discipline Assessment for a Small Software Organisation

The adoption of agile software development methodologies may appear to be a rather straightforward process yielding instantly improved software in less time and increasingly satisfied customers. This paper will show that such a notion is a misunderstanding and can be harmful to small software development organisations. A more reasonable approach involves a careful risk assessment and framework for introducing agile practices to address specific risks. A case study with a small software development organisation is provided to show the assessment in practice and the resulting risk mitigation strategies for process improvement.

Honest and dishonest displays, motivational state and subsequent decisions in hermit crab shell fights

Animal fights are typically preceded by displays and there is debate whether these are always honest. We investigated the prefight period in hermit crabs, Pagurus bernhardus, during which up to four types of display plus other activities that might provide information are performed. We determined how each display influences or predicts various fight decisions, and related these displays to the motivational state of the attacker, as determined by a startle response, and of the motivational state of the defender, as determined by the duration for which it resisted eviction from its shell. Two displays appeared to have consistent but different effects. Cheliped presentation, where the claws were held in a stationary position, often by both crabs but for longer by the larger, seemed to be honest, and allowed for mutual size assessment. This display enhanced the motivation and the success of the larger crab. In contrast, cheliped extension, involving the rapid thrust of the open chelae towards the opponent, did not seem to allow for mutual size assessment and may contain an element of bluff. It was performed more by the smaller crab and enhanced its success. The complexity of displays in this species appears to allow for both honesty and manipulation.

Self-assessment by males during energetically costly contests over precopula females in amphipods

In animal contests, individuals can either engage in mutual assessment of both their own and their opponent's resource-holding potential (RHP) and adjust their behaviour according to estimated differences, or instead persist in accordance with thresholds determined by assessment of just their own RHP. We examined the predictions of alternative mutual assessment and self-assessment models for decision rules in contest resolution during struggles between males over females in precopula in the amphipod Gammarus pulex. Contest duration was positively related to the weight of the loser but not the weight of the winner. Our results support the hypothesis that males rely on information about their own RHP in determining contest behaviour and do not use information about their opponent. Fighting was energetically costly, and energy reserves were depleted during contests. Contest duration was associated with the physiological state of the loser (but not the winner) at the end of the contest, and to a lesser extent his size, further supporting self-assessment. (c) 2006 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of fighting ability in animal contests

Selection should favour accurate information gathering regarding the likely costs and benefits of continued conflict. Here we consider how variation in the abilities of contestants to assess resource-holding potential (RHP) influences fights. This has been examined in various game theory models. However, discriminating between assessment strategies has proven difficult and has resulted in confusion. To add clarity, we group existing models into three main types that differ in the information about RHP that contestants are presumed to gather: (1) pure self-assessment, (2) cumulative assessment and (3) mutual assessment. Within this framework we outline methods advocated to discriminate successfully between the three main assessment models. We discuss support for each model, before highlighting a number of conflicting and inconclusive studies, leading us to consider alternative approaches to investigate assessment. Furthermore, we examine support for newly emerging concepts such as 'varying degrees of assessment', 'switching assessment' strategies and the possibility of contestants adopting different assessment strategies within a fight involving distinctive roles. We suggest future studies will benefit by judicious use of a battery of techniques to determine how animals settle contests. Finally, we highlight difficulties with current game theory models, and raise concerns regarding the use of certain behavioural criteria to accept or reject a model, particularly since this may conflict with evidence for a given assessment strategy. Furthermore, the failure of existing models to account for newly emerging concepts points to limitations of their use and leads us to challenge game theoreticians to develop upon them. (C) 2009 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The perspectives of young children in care about their circumstances and implications for social work practice

Recent reviews of research regarding children in care have concluded that there remains little research which specifically focuses on young children. This paper presents the findings of research carried out with a sample of young children in care (aged 4-7 years) regarding their perspectives of their circumstances. The findings reveal that they have deeply held views regarding living with risk; removal from their families; unresolved feelings of guilt and loss; and not being listened to. This paper considers the implications of these findings for social work practice. It concludes by stressing the capacity of young children in care to express their perspectives, and the importance of practitioners seeking these views and incorporating them into assessment and decision-making processes.

The Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation provisional criteria for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile dermatomyositis.

Objective To develop a provisional definition for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile dermatomyositis (DM) based on the Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation juvenile DM core set of variables. Methods Thirty-seven experienced pediatric rheumatologists from 27 countries achieved consensus on 128 difficult patient profiles as clinically improved or not improved using a stepwise approach (patient's rating, statistical analysis, definition selection). Using the physicians' consensus ratings as the “gold standard measure,” chi-square, sensitivity, specificity, false-positive and-negative rates, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and kappa agreement for candidate definitions of improvement were calculated. Definitions with kappa values >0.8 were multiplied by the face validity score to select the top definitions. Results The top definition of improvement was at least 20% improvement from baseline in 3 of 6 core set variables with no more than 1 of the remaining worsening by more than 30%, which cannot be muscle strength. The second-highest scoring definition was at least 20% improvement from baseline in 3 of 6 core set variables with no more than 2 of the remaining worsening by more than 25%, which cannot be muscle strength (definition P1 selected by the International Myositis Assessment and Clinical Studies group). The third is similar to the second with the maximum amount of worsening set to 30%. This indicates convergent validity of the process. Conclusion We propose a provisional data-driven definition of improvement that reflects well the consensus rating of experienced clinicians, which incorporates clinically meaningful change in core set variables in a composite end point for the evaluation of global response to therapy in juvenile DM.

Peer Rating for Feedback in Group Projects

The National Student Survey (NSS) in the UK has since 2005 questioned final year
undergraduate students on a broad range of issues relating to their university experience.
Across disciplines and universities students have expressed least satisfaction in the areas of
assessment and feedback. In response to these results many educational practitioners have
reviewed and revised their procedures and the UK Higher Education Academy (HEA) has
produced guidelines of best practice to assist academics in improving these specific areas.
The Product Design and Development (PDD) degree at Queen’s University Belfast is
structured with an integrated curriculum with group Design Build Test (DBT) projects as the
core of each year of the undergraduate programme. Based on the CDIO syllabus and
standards the overall learning outcomes for the programme are defined and developed in a
staged manner, guided by Bloom’s taxonomy of learning domains.
Feedback in group DBT projects, especially in relation to the development of personal and
professional skills, represents a different challenge to that of individual assignment feedback.
A review of best practice was carried out to establish techniques which could be applied to
the particular context of the PDD degree without modification and also to identify areas
where a different approach would need to be applied.
A revised procedure was then developed which utilised the structure of the PDD degree to
provide a mechanism for enhanced feedback in group project work, while at the same time
increasing student development of self and peer evaluation skills. Key to this improvement
was the separation of peer ratings from assessment in the perception of the students and the
introduction of more frequent face to face feedback interviews.
This paper details the new procedures developed and additional issues which have been
raised and addressed, with reference to the published literature, during 3 years of operation.

The level playing field: the impact of assessment practice on professional development

Context: The effects of assessment practice on students’ learning are unclear, particularly regarding professional development. Corralling in objective structured clinical examinations (OSCEs) is designed to reduce illicit passing of examination information. Candidates completing an examination are kept secluded until the next cohort of examinees has begun. We used the introduction of corralling as a context in which to explore social influences on examination misconduct, with the aims of improving understanding of the hidden effects of assessment, and evaluating the acceptability of corralling from the student perspective.

Methods: A questionnaire was administered to students corralled post-OSCE for the first time. Eleven semi-structured interviews were subsequently conducted. Questionnaire data were analysed for descriptive statistics and thematic analysis of interview transcripts was carried out.

Results: The questionnaire response rate was 95.4% (251/263). Before corralling, 80.9% (203/251) of students were aware of the sharing of information among peers and 78.5% (197/251) agreed that such misconduct was unprofessional. The majority were in favour of corralling (90.8%, 228/251). Four themes emerged from the semi-structured interviews: the student network versus the individual; assessment-driven culture; the deferring of professionalism, and the ‘level playing field’. Students saw interaction within the student network, on a background of assessment-driven culture, as the key driver in examination misconduct. Conforming to the rules of the social network was prioritised over individual agency, although the mismatch between the rules of the network and the dominant professional discourse caused some conflict for individuals. Deferred professionalism (described as the practice of taking on the norms of professional behaviour only when qualified) was a rationalisation used to minimise this conflict. Corralling provided a ‘level playing field’ in which the influences of the network were minimised.

Conclusions: Examination misconduct is thus a complex social construction with implications for individual learners in terms of professional development. Corralling is one mechanism for addressing misconduct that is acceptable to students, but assessment processes have important hidden effects which educators should acknowledge.

The place(s) of student voice in 14-19 education policy reform: reflections on consultation and participation

Certain policy areas with considerable impact on young people's educational experiences and achievements, notably assessment and qualifications, do not involve consultation with young people to any meaningful extent. Findings from a national study, which included focus groups with 243 students in the 14-19 phase, are presented with respect to student consultation and participation in such policy areas. A lack of meaningful consultation regarding what students see as ‘higher level’ policy agendas was found (such as qualifications provision, choice or structure). Students are therefore ‘voiceless’ in relation to major qualifications reforms

Renal replacement therapy in multiple myeloma and systemic amyloidosis

Renal failure frequently complicates both multiple myeloma and systemic amyloidosis. Renal replacement therapy (RRT) may be poorly tolerated and its role in such patients is not clearly defined. Of fifty patients (26 males and 24 females) referred to a single centre because of renal failure associated with multiple myeloma or systemic amyloidosis 37 progressed to end-stage renal failure and 30 of these patients received RRT. Nine patients have been treated by CAPD, 13 by haemodialysis, and 8 patients have required both forms of dialysis. Overall one year and two year survival rates were 66% and 57% respectively. The median duration on RRT was 7.5 months (range 1-96 months) with a 51% one year, and a 46% two year survival rate. Of 7 patients with amyloidosis who underwent renal transplantation, 3 died within 6 months of transplantation. Undiagnosed cardiac involvement contributed to this early mortality. We conclude that renal replacement therapy is appropriate for some patients with multiple myeloma and systemic amyloidosis who develop endstage renal failure. Careful assessment and selection of patients is necessary prior to renal transplantation.

Arsenic behaviour from groundwater and soil to crops:impacts on agriculture and food safety

High levels of As in groundwater commonly found in Bangladesh and other parts of Asia not only pose a risk via drinking water consumption but also a risk in agricultural sustainability and food safety. This review attempts to provide an overview of current knowledge and gaps related to the assessment and management of these risks, including the behaviour of As in the soil-plant system, uptake, phytotoxicity, As speciation in foods, dietary habits, and human health risks. Special emphasis has been given to the situation in Bangladesh, where groundwater via shallow tube wells is the most important source of irrigation water in the dry season. Within the soil-plant system, there is a distinct difference in behaviour of As under flooded conditions, where arsenite (AsIII) predominates, and under nonflooded conditions, where arsenate (AsV) predominates. The former is regarded as most toxic to humans and plants. Limited data indicate that As-contaminated irrigation water can result in a slow buildup of As in the topsoil. In some cases the buildup is reflected by the As levels in crops, in others not. It is not yet possible to predict As uptake and toxicity in plants based on soil parameters. It is unknown under what conditions and in what time frame As is building up in the soil. Representative phytotoxicity data necessary to evaluate current and future soil concentrations are not yet available. Although there are no indications that crop production is currently inhibited by As, long-term risks are clearly present. Therefore, with concurrent assessments of the risks, management options to further prevent As accumulation in the topsoil should already have been explored. With regard to human health, data on As speciation in foods in combination with food consumption data are needed to assess dietary exposure, and these data should include spatial and seasonal variability. It is important to control confounding factors in assessing the risks. In a country where malnutrition is prevalent, levels of inorganic As in foods should be balanced against the nutritional value of the foods. Regarding agriculture, As is only one of the many factors that may pose a risk to the sustainability of crop production. Other risk factors such as nutrient depletion and loss of organic matter also must be taken into account to set priorities in terms of research, management, and overall strategy.