An analysis of implied volatility jump dynamics: Novel functional data representation in crude oil markets

The predominant fear in capital markets is that of a price spike. Commodity markets differ in that there is a fear of both upward and down jumps, this results in implied volatility curves displaying distinct shapes when compared to equity markets. The use of a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach, provides a framework to produce and interpret functional objects that characterise the underlying dynamics of oil future options. We use the FDA framework to examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Examining a WTI crude oil sample for the 2007–2013 period, which includes the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring, strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. This is used as a basis for an FDA-derived Merton (1976) jump diffusion optimised delta hedging strategy, which exhibits superior portfolio management results over traditional methods.

Promoting Harmonious Relations and Equitable Well-Being: Peace Psychology and “Intractable” Conflicts

The chapter explores Bar-Tal’s legacy in relation to key concepts, perspectives, and findings that comprise the growing field of peace psychology, specifically the promotion of sustainable peace through the indivisible constructs of harmonious relations and equitable wellbeing. Analyzed through a peace psychology lens, Bar-Tal’s work highlights both the barriers to and bridges for achieving sustainable peace. Central concepts from his work, such as fear, insecurity, and an ethos of conflict, demonstrate key obstacles to fostering harmonious intergroup relations based on social justice. Bar-Tal’s work also identifies processes that can overcome these barriers, which is consistent with peace psychology’s emphasis on the development of constructive responses to violence and conflict. For example, the chapter outlines how confidence-building mechanisms, mutually respectful identities, and reconciliation processes, may help foster an ethos of peace that can be embedded in the structure of societies through peace education. The chapter concludes with implications and suggestions for future research, with a focus on the role of young people in settings of prolonged intergroup division and generational approaches to peacebuilding, as conceptualized through a peace psychology lens.

Potential of hydrogel-forming and dissolving microneedles for use in paediatric populations

Development of formulations and drug delivery strategies for paediatric use is challenging, partially due to the age ranges within this population, resulting in varying requirements to achieve optimised patient outcomes. Although the oral route of drug delivery remains the preferred option, there are problematic issues, such as difficulty swallowing and palatability of medicines specific to this population. The parenteral route is not well accepted by children due to needle-related fear and pain. Accordingly, a plethora of alternative routes of drug administration have been investigated. Microneedles (MN) breach the stratum corneum (SC), the outermost layer of skin, increasing the number of drug substances amenable to transdermal delivery. This strategy involves the use of micron-sized needles to painlessly, and without drawing blood, create transient aqueous conduits in the SC. In this study, polymeric dissolving MN and hydrogel-forming MN were fabricated incorporating two model drugs commonly used in paediatric patients (caffeine and lidocaine hydrochloride). The potential efficacy of these MN for paediatric dosing was investigated via in vitro and in vivo studies. Views pertaining to MN technology were sought amongst school children in Northern Ireland, members of the UK general public and UK-based paediatricians, to determine perceived benefits, acceptance, barriers and concerns for adoption of this technology. In this study, polymeric MN were shown to substantially enhance skin permeability of the model therapeutic molecules in vitro and in vivo. In particular, hydrogel-forming MN led to a 6.1-fold increase in caffeine delivery whilst lidocaine HCl delivery was increased by 3.3-fold using dissolving MN in vitro. Application of caffeine-loaded MN led to a caffeine plasma concentration of 23.87μg/mL in rats at 24h. This research also highlighted a strong consensus regarding MN technology amongst schoolchildren, paediatricians and the general public, regarding potential use of MN in the paediatric population. Overall, 93.6% of general public respondents and 85.9% of paediatricians regarded the use of MN as a positive approach.

Practicing peace: Psychological roots of transforming conflicts

The practice of sustainable peace is a process that must be initiated, nourished and revised. The
“social energies” of conflict transformation – truth, mercy, justice, peace – offer a useful model to describe the transformative power of this practice. These social energies can be conceptualized as a combination of norms or values, on the one hand, and actions directed toward social reconstruction, on the other. As such, the social energies of conflict transformation are both the guideposts and the engine in the journey of practicing sustainable peace. This article begins by
linking psychological constructs of narrative/voice, empathy/altruism, individual/collective guilt, and security/fear with the social energies, highlighting the interdependence of processes and shifting the focus away from pathology toward an emphasis on harmony. An empirical application of how the four social energies contribute to the mobilization, maintenance and adaptations in on-going peace processes in post-war Guatemala is then presented. By analyzing the interaction among diverse actors and goals in the decade and a half since the signing of the 1996 Peace Accords, current theory is extended in two ways: a) differentiation between elite and grassroots initiatives, and b) specification and evaluation the impact of various efforts on episodic and structural violence. We conclude that although national and local processes have
had limited success, more integrated practices of truth, mercy, justice and peace are necessary if Guatemala is to make sustainable peace a reality. The findings from this case study have policy and practical implications for other countries facing protracted, violent conflict.

Socioeconomic inequalities in attitudes towards cancer: An international cancer benchmarking partnership study

Socioeconomic status (SES) differences in attitudes towards cancer have been implicated in the differential screening uptake and the timeliness of symptomatic presentation. However, the predominant emphasis of this work has been on cancer fatalism, and many studies focus on specific community subgroups. This study aimed to assess SES differences in positive and negative attitudes towards cancer in UK adults. A population-based sample of UK adults (n=6965, age≥50 years) completed the Awareness and Beliefs about Cancer scale, including six belief items: three positively framed (e.g. 'Cancer can often be cured') and three negatively framed (e.g. 'A cancer diagnosis is a death sentence'). SES was indexed by education. Analyses controlled for sex, ethnicity, marital status, age, self-rated health, and cancer experience. There were few education-level differences for the positive statements, and overall agreement was high (all>90%). In contrast, there were strong differences for negative statements (all Ps<0.001). Among respondents with lower education levels, 57% agreed that 'treatment is worse than cancer', 27% that cancer is 'a death sentence' and 16% 'would not want to know if I have cancer'. Among those with university education, the respective proportions were 34, 17 and 6%. Differences were not explained by cancer experience or health status. In conclusion, positive statements about cancer outcomes attract near-universal agreement. However, this optimistic perspective coexists alongside widespread fears about survival and treatment, especially among less-educated groups. Health education campaigns targeting socioeconomically disadvantaged groups might benefit from a focus on reducing negative attitudes, which is not necessarily achieved by promoting positive attitudes.

Managing pain medications in long-term care: nurses' views

The purpose of this study was to explore nurses' perceptions of their current practices related to administering pain medications to long-term care (LTC) residents. A cross-sectional survey design was used, including both quantitative and open-ended questions. Data were collected from 165 nurses (59% response rate) at nine LTC homes in southern Ontario, Canada. The majority (85%) felt that the medication administration system was adequate to help them manage residents' pain and 98% felt comfortable administering narcotics. In deciding to administer a narcotic, nurses were influenced by pain assessments, physician orders, diagnosis, past history, effectiveness of non-narcotics and fear of making dosage miscalculations or developing addictions. Finally, most nurses stated that they trusted the physicians and pharmacists to ensure orders were safe. These findings highlight nurses' perceptions of managing pain medications in LTC and related areas where continuing education initiatives for nurses are needed.

Safety of Spectacles for Children's Vision: A Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial.

Purpose: To study safety of children’s glasses in rural China, where fear that glasses harm vision is an important barrier for families and policy-makers. Design: Exploratory analysis from a cluster-randomized, investigator-masked, controlled trial.Methods: Among primary schools (n=252) in western China, children were randomized by school to one of three interventions: free glasses provided in class, vouchers for free glasses at a local facility or glasses prescriptions only (Control group). The main outcome of this analysis is uncorrected visual acuity after 8 months, adjusted for baseline acuity.Results: Among 19,934 children randomly selected for screening, 5852 myopic (spherical equivalent refractive error <= -0.5 D) eyes of 3001 children (14.7%, mean age 10.5 years) had VA <= 6/12 without glasses correctable to > 6/12 with glasses, and were eligible. Among these, 1903 (32.5%), 1798 (30.7%), and 2151 (36.8%) were randomized to Control, Voucher and Free Glasses respectively. Intention-to-treat analyses were performed on all 1831 (96.2%), 1699 (94.5%), and 2007 (93.3%) eyes of children with follow-up in Control, Voucher and Free Glasses groups. Final visual acuity for eyes of children in the treatment groups (Free Glasses and Voucher) was significantly better than for Control children, adjusting only for baseline visual acuity (difference of 0.023 logMAR units [0.23 vision chart lines, 95% CI: 0.03, 0.43]) or for other baseline factors as well (0.025 logMAR units [0.25 lines, 95% CI 0.04, 0.45]). Conclusion: We found no evidence that spectacles promote decline in uncorrected vision with aging among children.

Adjusting HIV Prevalence Estimates for Non-participation: an Application to Demographic Surveillance

Introduction: HIV testing is a cornerstone of efforts to combat the HIV epidemic, and testing conducted as part of surveillance provides invaluable data on the spread of infection and the effectiveness of campaigns to reduce the transmission of HIV. However, participation in HIV testing can be low, and if respondents systematically select not to be tested because they know or suspect they are HIV positive (and fear disclosure), standard approaches to deal with missing data will fail to remove selection bias. We implemented Heckman-type selection models, which can be used to adjust for missing data that are not missing at random, and established the extent of selection bias in a population-based HIV survey in an HIV hyperendemic community in rural South Africa.

Methods: We used data from a population-based HIV survey carried out in 2009 in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. In this survey, 5565 women (35%) and 2567 men (27%) provided blood for an HIV test. We accounted for missing data using interviewer identity as a selection variable which predicted consent to HIV testing but was unlikely to be independently associated with HIV status. Our approach involved using this selection variable to examine the HIV status of residents who would ordinarily refuse to test, except that they were allocated a persuasive interviewer. Our copula model allows for flexibility when modelling the dependence structure between HIV survey participation and HIV status.

Results: For women, our selection model generated an HIV prevalence estimate of 33% (95% CI 27–40) for all people eligible to consent to HIV testing in the survey. This estimate is higher than the estimate of 24% generated when only information from respondents who participated in testing is used in the analysis, and the estimate of 27% when imputation analysis is used to predict missing data on HIV status. For men, we found an HIV prevalence of 25% (95% CI 15–35) using the selection model, compared to 16% among those who participated in testing, and 18% estimated with imputation. We provide new confidence intervals that correct for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is unknown and requires estimation.

Conclusions: We confirm the feasibility and value of adopting selection models to account for missing data in population-based HIV surveys and surveillance systems. Elements of survey design, such as interviewer identity, present the opportunity to adopt this approach in routine applications. Where non-participation is high, true confidence intervals are much wider than those generated by standard approaches to dealing with missing data suggest.

Reasons for non-participation in the Northern Ireland Bowel Cancer Screening Programme: a qualitative study

OBJECTIVES: To identify the reasons why some people do not participate in bowel cancer screening so that steps can be taken to improve informed decision-making.

DESIGN: Qualitative study, using focus groups with thematic analysis of data to identify, analyse and report patterns. Transcripts were repeatedly read and inductively coded using a phenomenological perspective, and organised into key themes.

SETTING: Belfast and Armagh, two areas of Northern Ireland with relatively low uptake of bowel cancer screening.

PARTICIPANTS: Ten women and 18 men in three single-gender focus groups (two male and one female), each with 9-10 participants. Study participants were recruited by convenience sampling from the general public and were eligible for, but had not taken part in, the Northern Ireland Bowel Cancer Screening Programme.

RESULTS: Key themes identified were fear of cancer; the test procedure; social norms; past experience of cancer and screening; lack of knowledge or understanding about bowel cancer screening; and resulting behaviour towards the test. Fear about receiving bad news and reluctance to conduct the test themselves were reactions that participants seemed willing to overcome after taking part in open discussion about the test.

CONCLUSIONS: We identified barriers to participation in bowel cancer screening and used these insights to develop new materials to support delivery of the programme. Some of the issues raised have been identified in other UK settings, suggesting that knowledge about barriers, and strategies to improve uptake, may be generalisable.

The Dublin Lock Hospital: Medicine, Morality, Disease and Sin

Anecdotal evidence has it that when Dublin’s venereal disease hospital closed its doors for the last time in the 1950s, its administrative staff began to burn its records, starting with the most recent. This attempt to conceal the results of sexual profligacy is perhaps understandable in the rarefied climate of mid-century Catholic Ireland. However, the sense of shame attached to this institution has been pervasive. For example, of all Dublin’s major hospitals, the lock hospital remains the only one without a dedicated history. And, throughout its two centuries of existence, the ‘lock’ had often been a site of controversy and approbation.

The institution began in the eighteenth century as the most peripatetic, poor relation of the city’s voluntary hospitals, wandering indiscriminately through a series of temporary premises before finally achieving a permanent home and official recognition as a military-sponsored medical hospital in 1792. It also gained architectural extensions by both Richard and Francis Johnston and in the following decades. This new-found status and a growing re-conceptualisation of venereal disease as a legitimate medical problem rather than a matter of morality was, however, somewhat compromised by the choice of site at Townsend Street. The institution occupied a hidden part of city, appropriating the vacated home of the Hospital for Incurables, another marginalised group whose presence in the city had been viewed through the lens of superstition and fear. For the rest of its existence, the lock hospital would share this experience occupying a nebulous position between medicine and morality; disease and sin.

Using what’s left of the hospital’s records and a series of original architectural drawings, this paper discusses the presence and role of the lock hospital in the city in the eighteenth and early nineteenth century, tracking how changes in its administration and architectural form reflected wider attitudes towards disease, sexuality and gender in Georgian Dublin.

Behavioural reactivity of ewes and lambs during partial and total social isolation

This work investigated the differences in the reactivity of Sarda (primiparous n= 18, multiparous n= 17) and Dorset (multiparous n= 8) breeds of sheep and their singleton lambs to two challenging test situations involving a mother-lamb partial separation test and an isolation test. Non-parametric analysis used single behavioural variables and fear scores to evaluate the effect of parity, sex of lambs, and the association between mother-lamb behaviour. Amongst ewes, Dorset were characterised by a more calm temperament while Sarda (especially primiparous ewes) were more active in their response to challenge (i.e. more attempts to escape). As with their dams, lambs reflected to a certain extent this divergence and overall during isolation lamb fear score was on average significantly higher than dams. Correlations between measures of behavioural reactivity across tests were carried out to search for predictive measures of fear. A very strong correlation emerged linking vocalisation to locomotor activity. Vocalisation could be a good candidate as predictor factor of an active reaction of sheep to a fearful situation.

Validity of model devices used to assess canine temperament in behavioral tests

Temperament tests are widely accepted as instruments for profiling behavioral variability in dogs, and they are applied in numerous areas of investigation (e.g. suitability for adoption or for breeding). During testing, to elicit a dog's reaction toward novel stimuli and predict its behavior in everyday life, model devices such as a child-like doll, or a fake dog, are often employed. However, the reliability of these devices to accurately stimulate dogs' reactions to children or dogs, is unknown and perhaps overestimated. This may be a particular concern in the case of aggressive behavior toward humans, a significant public health issue. The aim of this study was to: (1) evaluate the correlation between dogs' reactions to these devices, and owners' reports of their dog's aggression history (using the C-BARQ ??); (2) compare reactions toward the devices of dogs with and without histories of aggression. Subjects were selected among those visiting for behavioral consultation at the Veterinary Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, and previously categorized as aggressive toward unfamiliar children, conspecifics, or as non-aggressive dogs (control). The test consisted of different components: an unfamiliar female tester approaching the dog; the presentation of a child-like doll, an ambiguous object, and a fake plastic dog. All tests were videotaped and durations of behaviors were later analyzed on the basis of a specified ethogram. Dogs' reactions were compared to C-BARQ scores, and interesting correlations emerged for 'dog-directed aggression/fear' (R = 0.48, P = 0.004), and 'stranger-directed aggression' (R = 0.58, P <0.001) factors. Dogs differed in their reactions toward the devices: the child-like doll and the fake dog elicited more social behaviors than the ambiguous object used as a control stimulus. Issues concerning the reliability of these tools to assess canine temperament are discussed. ?? 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spectacle acceptance among secondary school students in rural China: the Xichang Pediatric Refractive Error Study (X-PRES)--report 5.

PURPOSE: To assess determinants of spectacle acceptance and use among rural Chinese children. METHODS: Children with uncorrected acuity < or = 6/12 in either eye and whose presenting vision could be improved > or = 2 lines with refraction were identified from a school-based sample of 1892 students. Information on obtaining glasses and the benefits of spectacles was provided to children, families, and teachers. Purchase of new spectacles and reasons for nonpurchase were assessed by direct inspection and interview 3 months later. RESULTS: Among 674 (35.6%) children requiring spectacles (mean age, 14.7 +/- 0.8 years), 597 (88.6%) were followed up. Among 339 children with no glasses at baseline, 30.7% purchased spectacles, whereas 43.2% of 258 children with inaccurate glasses replaced them. Most (70%) subjects paid US$13 to $26. Among children with bilateral vision < or = 6/18, 45.6% bought glasses. In multivariate models, presenting vision < 6/12 (P < 0.009), refractive error < -2.0 D (P < 0.001), and amount willing to pay for glasses (P = 0.01) were predictors of purchase. Reasons for nonpurchase included satisfaction with current vision (78% of those with glasses at baseline, 49% of those without), concerns over price or parental refusal (18%), and fear glasses would weaken the eyes (13%). Only 26% of children stated that they usually wore their new glasses. CONCLUSIONS: Many families in rural China will pay for glasses, though spectacle acceptance was < 50%, even among children with poor vision. Acceptance could be improved by price reduction, education showing that glasses will not harm the eyes, and parent-focused interventions.

Change in psychological distress in longer-term oesophageal cancer carers: are clusters of illness perception change a useful determinant?

Objective: This study provides a longitudinal assessment of distress in longer-term oesophageal cancer carers, while examining illness perception schema as a possible determinant of change in distress over time.
Methods: Oesophageal cancer carers (n=171), 48-months post-diagnosis, were assessed at baseline and 12-months later with the Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised, Cancer Coping Questionnaire, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and Concerns About Recurrence Scale.
Results: Findings report deterioration from normal to probable anxiety in 35.7% of carers and probable depression in 28.7% carers over time. Fear of recurrence remained stable. Changes in control, consequence and cause beliefs were identified as key determinants of a change in psychological morbidity.
Conclusions: Illness beliefs appear to be valuable targets for psychological intervention to improve wellbeing among carers of people with oesophageal cancer.