Transmission Potential of Rift Valley Fever virus over the course of the 2010 epidemic in South Africa

A Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemic affecting animals on domestic livestock farms was reported in South Africa during January-August 2010. The first cases occurred after heavy rainfall, and the virus subsequently spread countrywide. To determine the possible effect of environmental conditions and vaccination on RVF virus transmissibility, we estimated the effective reproduction number (R) for the virus over the course of the epidemic by extending the Wallinga and Teunis algorithm with spatial information. Re reached its highest value in mid-February and fell below unity around mid-March, when vaccination coverage was 7.5%-45.7% and vector-suitable environmental conditions were maintained. The epidemic fade-out likely resulted first from the immunization of animals following natural infection or vaccination. The decline in vector-suitable environmental conditions from April onwards and further vaccination helped maintain R below unity. Increased availability of vaccine use data would enable evaluation of the effect of RVF vaccination campaigns.

Integrating geophysical data and upscaling techniques to support regional groundwater flow modelling: A practical example of the Lagan Valley, Northern Ireland

When studying heterogeneous aquifer systems, especially at regional scale, a degree of generalization is anticipated. This can be due to sparse sampling regimes, complex depositional environments or lack of accessibility to measure the subsurface. This can lead to an inaccurate conceptualization which can be detrimental when applied to groundwater flow models. It is important that numerical models are based on observed and accurate geological information and do not rely on the distribution of artificial aquifer properties. This can still be problematic as data will be modelled at a different scale to which it was collected. It is proposed here that integrating geophysics and upscaling techniques can assist in a more realistic and deterministic groundwater flow model. In this study, the sedimentary aquifer of the Lagan Valley in Northern Ireland is chosen due to intruding sub-vertical dolerite dykes. These dykes are of a lower permeability than the sandstone aquifer. The use of airborne magnetics allows the delineation of heterogeneities, confirmed by field analysis. Permeability measured at the field scale is then upscaled to different levels using a correlation with the geophysical data, creating equivalent parameters that can be directly imported into numerical groundwater flow models. These parameters include directional equivalent permeabilities and anisotropy. Several stages of upscaling are modelled in finite element. Initial modelling is providing promising results, especially at the intermediate scale, suggesting an accurate distribution of aquifer properties. This deterministic based methodology is being expanded to include stochastic methods of obtaining heterogeneity location based on airborne geophysical data. This is through the Direct Sample method of Multiple-Point Statistics (MPS). This method uses the magnetics as a training image to computationally determine a probabilistic occurrence of heterogeneity. There is also a need to apply the method to alternate geological contexts where the heterogeneity is of a higher permeability than the host rock.

Aspects of dietary carbohydrate intake are not related to risk of colorectal polyps in the Tennessee Colorectal Polyp Study

Purpose: High digestible carbohydrate intakes can induce hyperglycemia and hyperinsulinemia and collectively have been implicated in colorectal tumor development. Our aim was to explore the association between aspects of dietary carbohydrate intake and risk of colorectal adenomas and hyperplastic polyps in a large case–control study.

Methods: Colorectal polyp cases (n = 1,315 adenomas only, n = 566 hyperplastic polyps only and n = 394 both) and controls (n = 3,184) undergoing colonoscopy were recruited between 2003 and 2010 in Nashville, Tennessee, USA. Dietary intakes were estimated by a 108-item food frequency questionnaire. Unconditional logistic regression analysis was applied to determine odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for colorectal polyps according to dietary carbohydrate intakes, after adjustment for potential confounders.

Results: No significant associations were detected for risk of colorectal adenomas when comparing the highest versus lowest quartiles of intake for total sugars (OR 1.03; 95 % CI 0.84–1.26), starch (OR 1.01; 95 % CI 0.81–1.26), total or available carbohydrate intakes. Similar null associations were observed between dietary carbohydrate intakes and risk of hyperplastic polyps, or concurrent adenomas and hyperplastic polyps.

Conclusion: In this US population, digestible carbohydrate intakes were not associated with risk of colorectal polyps, suggesting that dietary carbohydrate does not have an etiological role in the early stages of colorectal carcinogenesis.

Latent and Explicit Authority in Hierarchical Organizations

We consider the problem of the exercise of authority within social production organizations, embedding the decision makers into a structure of formal authority relationships. We distinguish two types of behavior. First, we introduce an equilibrium notion implementing latent authority under which subordinates submit themselves to authority even though such authority is not en- forced explicitly. Second, we compare this with a non-cooperative equilibrium concept describing explicit exercise of authority. We show that for low enough enforcement costs both forms of authority will be exercised in equilibrium, but for higher enforcement costs latent authority will be exercised while explicit authority will not.

Authority, Nationality, and Minorities

Prominent normative theories for accommodating minority national groups appeal to the value of national cultures and/or the psychology of group recognition. This article aims to show that an argument from political authority provides a better justification. Building on Joseph Raz's theory of authority, the article argues that members of minority national groups are disadvantaged in relation to their majority counterparts under standard democratic institutions; such institutions do not provide minority national groups with comparable access to the conditions for legitimate political authority. Constitutional arrangements for accommodating minority national groups—such as territorial self-government or power-sharing—are justified insofar as they might offset this disadvantage.