A strategic review of electricity systems models

Electricity systems models are software tools used to manage electricity demand and the electricity systems, to trade electricity and for generation expansion planning purposes. Various portfolios and scenarios are modelled in order to compare the effects of decision making in policy and on business development plans in electricity systems so as to best advise governments and industry on the least cost economic and environmental approach to electricity supply, while maintaining a secure supply of sufficient quality electricity. The modelling techniques developed to study vertically integrated state monopolies are now applied in liberalised markets where the issues and constraints are more complex. This paper reviews the changing role of electricity systems modelling in a strategic manner, focussing on the modelling response to key developments, the move away from monopoly towards liberalised market regimes and the increasing complexity brought about by policy targets for renewable energy and emissions. The paper provides an overview of electricity systems modelling techniques, discusses a number of key proprietary electricity systems models used in the USA and Europe and provides an information resource to the electricity analyst not currently readily available in the literature on the choice of model to investigate different aspects of the electricity system.

Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers in cancer progression and survival: a systematic review

Objective: To investigate the association between angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) and disease progression and survival in cancer patients.

Methods: Using terms for cancer and ACEIs/ARBs, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science were systematically searched for observational/interventional studies that used clinically relevant outcomes for cancer progression and survival.

Results: Ten studies met the inclusion criteria. Two studies showed a significant improvement in overall survival (OS) with ACEI/ARB use among patients with advanced pancreatic (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29–0.88) and non-small cell lung cancer (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.33–0.95). An improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) was also reported for pancreatic cancer patients (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.34–0.95) and patients with renal cell carcinoma (HR 0.54, p = 0.02). ACEI/ARB use was protective against breast cancer recurrence (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.37–0.96), colorectal cancer distant metastasis (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.08–0.65) and prostate specific antigen (PSA) failure in prostate cancer patients (p = 0.034). One study observed a worse OS (HR 2.01, 95% CI 1.00–4.05) and PFS in ACEI users with multiple myeloma (p = 0.085) while another reported an increased risk of breast cancer recurrence (HR = 1.56, 95% CI 1.02–2.39).

Conclusion: There is some evidence to suggest that ACEI or ARB use may be associated with improved outcomes in cancer patients. Larger, more robust studies are required to explore this relationship further.

Accuracy of LightCycler® SeptiFast for the detection and identification of pathogens in the blood of patients with suspected sepsis: a systematic review protocol

Background: There is growing interest in the potential utility of molecular diagnostics in improving the detection of life-threatening infection (sepsis). LightCycler® SeptiFast is a multipathogen probebased real-time PCR system targeting DNA sequences of bacteria and fungi present in blood samples within a few hours. We report here the protocol of the first systematic review of published clinical diagnostic accuracy studies of this technology when compared with blood culture in the setting of suspected sepsis. Methods/design: Data sources: the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), the Health Technology Assessment Database (HTA), the NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHSEED), The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, BIOSIS Previews, MEDION and the Aggressive Research Intelligence Facility Database (ARIF). Study selection: diagnostic accuracy studies that compare the real-time PCR technology with standard culture results performed on a patient's blood sample during the management of sepsis. Data extraction: three reviewers, working independently, will determine the level of evidence, methodological quality and a standard data set relating to demographics and diagnostic accuracy metrics for each study. Statistical analysis/data synthesis: heterogeneity of studies will be investigated using a coupled forest plot of sensitivity and specificity and a scatter plot in Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) space. Bivariate model method will be used to estimate summary sensitivity and specificity. The authors will investigate reporting biases using funnel plots based on effective sample size and regression tests of asymmetry. Subgroup analyses are planned for adults, children and infection setting (hospital vs community) if sufficient data are uncovered. Dissemination: Recommendations will be made to the Department of Health (as part of an open-access HTA report) as to whether the real-time PCR technology has sufficient clinical diagnostic accuracy potential to move forward to efficacy testing during the provision of routine clinical care.

Treatment Foster Care for improving outcomes in children and young people (Review)

Background: Treatment foster care (TFC) is a foster family-based intervention that aims to provide young people (and, where appropriate, their families) with a tailored programme designed to effect positive changes in their lives. TFC was designed specifically to cater for the needs of children whose difficulties or circumstances place them at risk of multiple placements and/or more restrictive placements such as hospital or secure residential or youth justice settings.

Objectives: To assess the impact of TFC on psychosocial and behavioural outcomes, delinquency, placement stability, and discharge status for children and adolescents who require out-of-home placement.

Search methods: We searched the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (CENTRAL) 2006 (Issue 4), MEDLINE (1966 to January 2007), CINAHL (1982 to December 2006), PsycINFO (1872 to January 2007), ASSIA (1987 to January 2007), LILACS (1982 to January 2007), ERIC (1966 to January 2007), Sociological Abstracts (1963 to January 2007), and the National Research Register 2006 (Issue 4).

Selection criteria: Included studies were randomised controlled trials investigating the effectiveness of TFC with children and young people up to the age of 18 who, for reasons of severe medical, social, psychological and behavioural problems, were placed in out of home care in restrictive settings (e.g. secure residential care, psychiatric hospital) or at risk of placement in such settings.

Data collection and analysis: Titles and abstracts identified in the search were independently assessed for eligibility by the two authors (GM and WT) who also extracted and entered into REVMAN. Date were synthesised on the few occasions where this was possible. Results are presented in tabular, graphical (forest plots) and textual form.

Main results: Five studies including 390 participants were included in this review. Data suggest that treatment foster care may be a useful intervention for children and young people with complex emotional, psychological and behavioural need, who are at risk of placements in nonfamily settings that restrict their liberty and opportunities for social inclusion.

Authors’ conclusions: Although the inclusion criteria for this systematic review set a study design threshold higher than that of previous reviews, the results mirror those of earlier reviews but also highlights the tendency of the perceived effectiveness of popular interventions to outstrip their evidence base. Whilst the results of individual studies generally indicate that TFC is a promising intervention for children and youth experiencing mental health problems, behavioural problems or problems of delinquency, the evidence base is less robust than that usually reported.The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews is a peer reviewed, international journal, published electronically each month. The 2010 Inpact Factor for the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews was 6.185.The CDSR is now ranked in the top 10 of the 151 in the Medicine, General & Internal category.

Natural history of idiopathic erythrocytosis - A retrospective case series review

Idiopathic Erythrocytosis (IE) is a diagnosis given to patients who have an absolute erythrocytosis (red cell mass more than 25% above their mean normal predicted value) but who do not have a known form of primary or secondary erythrocytosis (BCSH guideline, 2005). We report here the results of a follow-up study of 80 patients (44 male and 36 female) diagnosed with IE from the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland over a 10 year period. Baseline information was initially collected when investigating for molecular causes of erythrocytosis in this group. The diagnosis of IE was made on the basis of a raised red cell mass >25% above mean normal predicted value, absence of Polycythaemia Vera (PV) based on the criteria of Pearson and Messinezy (1996), and the exclusion of secondary erythrocytosis (oxygen saturation >92% on pulse oximetry, no history of sleep apnoea, no renal or hepatic pathology, and a normal oxygen dissociation curve (if indicated). The average age at diagnosis of erythrocytosis was 34.5 (2–74 years). Erythropoietin levels were available for 77/80 of the patients and were low in 18 (23%) and normal or high in 59 (74%). Ultrasound imaging was carried out in 67 patients (84%) at time of diagnosis and no significant abnormalities found. Fourteen patients had a family history of erythrocytosis. These patients have now been followed up for an average of 9.4 years (range 1–39). Out of 80 patients 56 patients can still be classified as having IE, of whom 52 are living (cause of death in the other 4 - lung cancer, RTA, sepsis, unknown). Thirty-five of these patients are regularly venesected, 3 take hydroxyurea (one also venesected), 11 receive no treatment while treatment is unknown in 2. Twenty take aspirin, 1 warfarin and 31 no thromboprophylaxis. Four of these patients had suffered thromboembolic complications (3 with CVA/TIAs and 1 with recurrent DVT) at or before their original diagnosis. Since diagnosis 8 patients have had 9 thrombotic events of which 7 were arterial (1 CVA, 3 TIAs, 1 MI, 2 PVD) and 2 venous (DVT/PE). Twenty take aspirin, 1 dipyridamole, 1 warfarin and 30 take no thromboprophylaxis. Out of the 24 patients who now have a diagnosis other than IE, 8 have been diagnosed with myelo-proliferative disease. Thirteen patients have a molecular abnormality which is likely to account for their erythrocytosis (11 VHL, 1 PHD-2, 1 EPO-receptor mutations). Three patients have secondary erythrocytosis. Older case studies identified a heterogenous group of patients, some of whom probably had apparent erythrocytosis and some who had either primary polycythaemia or secondary causes later identified (Modan and Modan, Najean et al). More recent reviews have identified a more homogenous group with low rates of transformation to myelofibrosis/acute leukaemia and low rates of thrombosis of around 1% patient-year. Follow up of our initial patient group does indeed reveal a heterogeneous group of patients with 10% now diagnosed with an MPD, although when analysis is confined to those patients who continue to fulfil the criteria for IE, the clinical course has been more stable. There has been no progression to MDS or leukaemia in this group (one patient with PV progressed to AML). The rate of thrombosis is 1.6% patient-years which is lower than the rate seen in PV and is consistent with the rate identified in other series. Molecular defects continue to be identified in this group and future investigation is likely to reveal further abnormalities.

Quantitative study of the ionization-induced refraction of picosecond laser pulses in gas-jet targets

A quantitative study of refractive whole beam defocusing and small scale breakup induced by optical ionization of subpicosecond and picosecond, 0.25 and 1 mu m, laser pulses in gas-jet targets at densities above 1 x 10(19) cm(-3) has been carried out. A significant reduction of the incident laser intensity was observed due to refraction from ionization-induced density gradients. The level of refraction measured with optical probing correlated well with the fraction of energy transmitted through the plasma. The numerical and analytical models were found to agree well with experimental observations.

A review and psychometric evaluation of pregnancy-specific stress measures

Considerable evidence has accumulated on the association between pregnancy-specific stress and adverse birth outcomes with an increasing number of measures of pregnancy-specific stress being developed internationally. However, the introduction of these measures has not always been theoretically or psychometrically grounded, resulting in questions about the quality and direction of such research. This review summarizes evidence on the reliability and validity of pregnancy-specific stress measures identified between 1980 and October 2010. Fifteen pregnancy-specific stress measures were identified. Cronbach’s alpha coefficient ranged from 0.51–0.96 and predictive validity data on preterm birth were reported for five measures. Convergent validity data suggest that pregnancy-specific stress is related to, but distinct from, global stress. Findings from this review consolidate current knowledge on pregnancy-specific stress as a consistent predictor of premature birth. This review also advances awareness of the range of measures of pregnancy-specific stress and documents their strengths and limitations based on published reliability and validity data. Careful consideration needs to be given as to which measures to use in future research to maximize the development of stress theory in pregnancy and appropriate interventions for women who experience stress in pregnancy. An international, strategic collaboration is recommended to advance knowledge in this area of study.

Thalidomide for managing cancer cachexia [review paper]

Cancer cachexia is a multidimensional syndrome characterised by wasting, loss of weight, loss of appetite, metabolic alterations, fatigue and reduced performance status. A significant number of patients with advanced cancer develop cachexia before death. There is no identified optimum treatment for cancer cachexia. While the exact mechanism of the action of thalidomide is unclear, it is known to have immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory properties, which are thought to help reduce the weight loss associated with cachexia. Preliminary studies of thalidomide have demonstrated encouraging results. This review aimed to (1) evaluate the effectiveness of thalidomide, and (2) identify and assess adverse effects from thalidomide for cancer cachexia. Electronic searches were undertaken in CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and CINAHL (from inception to April 2011). Reference lists from reviewed articles, trial registers, relevant conference documents and thalidomide manufacturers identified additional literature. This review included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-RCTs. Participants were adults diagnosed with advanced or incurable cancer and weight loss or a clinical diagnosis of cachexia who were administered thalidomide. All titles and abstracts retrieved by electronic searching were downloaded to a reference management database. Duplicates were removed and the remaining citations were read by two review authors and checked for eligibility. Studies that were deemed ineligible for inclusion had clear reasons for exclusion documented. Data were extracted independently by two review authors for all eligible studies. While a meta-analysis was planned for this review, this was not possible due to the small number of studies included and high heterogeneity among them. Thus a narrative synthesis of the findings is presented. The literature search revealed a dearth of large, well conducted trials in this area. This has hindered the review authors' ability to make an informed decision about thalidomide for the management of cancer cachexia. At present, there is insufficient evidence to refute or support the use of thalidomide for the management of cachexia in advanced cancer patients. The review authors cannot confirm or refute previous literature on the use of thalidomide for patients with advanced cancer who have cachexia and there is inadequate evidence to recommend it for clinical practice. Additional, well conducted, large RCTs are needed to test thalidomide both singularly and in combination with other treatment modalities to ascertain its true benefit, if any, for this population. Furthermore, one study (out of the three reviewed) highlighted that thalidomide was poorly tolerated and its use needs to be explored further in light of the frailty of this population

The effect of sperm DNA fragmentation on miscarriage rates: a systematic review and meta-analysis

STUDY QUESTION Is there an association between high levels of sperm DNA damage and miscarriage?SUMMARY ANSWERMiscarriage rates are positively correlated with sperm DNA damage levels.WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADYMost ejaculates contain a subpopulation of sperm with DNA damage, also referred to as DNA fragmentation, in the form of double or single-strand breaks which have been induced in the DNA prior to or following ejaculation. This DNA damage may be particularly elevated in some subfertile men, hence several studies have examined the link between sperm DNA damage levels and conception and miscarriage rates.STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATIONA systematic review and meta-analysis of studies which examined the effect of sperm DNA damage on miscarriage rates was performed. Searches were conducted on MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library without any language restrictions from database inception to January 2012.PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODSWe used the terms 'DNA damage' or 'DNA fragmentation' combined with 'miscarriage', 'abortion' or 'pregnancy' to generate a set of relevant citations. Data extraction was performed by two reviewers. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Meta-analysis of relative risks of miscarriage was performed with a random effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed by the type of DNA damage test, whether the sperm examined were prepared or from raw semen and for pregnancies resulting from IVF or ICSI treatment.MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCEWe identified 16 cohort studies (2969 couples), 14 of which were prospective. Eight studies used acridine orange-based assays, six the TUNEL assay and two the COMET assay. Meta-analysis showed a significant increase in miscarriage in patients with high DNA damage compared with those with low DNA damage [risk ratio (RR) = 2.16 (1.54, 3.03), P <0.00001)]. A subgroup analysis showed that the miscarriage association is strongest for the TUNEL assay (RR = 3.94 (2.45, 6.32), P <0.00001).LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTIONThere is some variation in study characteristics, including the use of different assays and different thresholds for DNA damage and the definition of pregnancy loss.WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGSThe use of methods which select sperm without DNA damage for use in assisted conception treatment may reduce the risk of miscarriage. This finding indicates that assays detecting DNA damage could be considered in those suffering from recurrent pregnancy loss. Further research is necessary to study the mechanisms of DNA damage and the potential therapeutic effects of antioxidant therapy.STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)None.

A feasibility study on the development and integration of a teaching aid for pharmacology

Traditional methods of teaching and learning in higher education are ever-evolving. This report assesses the feasibility of developing a teaching aid for pharmacology modules. Focus groups were established to gauge student and staff opinions on the use of teaching aids and an extensive literature review was conducted. The study identifies and critically evaluates a range of possibilities that could be developed and discusses practical issues such as accessibility, inclusion and assessment, associated with these potential aids. This initial study concludes that a suitable aid could take the form of a student-led development of a wiki-type website resource that included access to case-studies giving students ‘real-life’ experience of the concepts being studied. This type of project requires considerable time and financial support; nevertheless, this idea could be extended for many drugs and could be used in any health science course.