Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strategies for adding features to CAD models in order to optimize performance

This paper presents an approach which enables new parameters to be added to a CAD model for optimization purposes. It aims to remove a common roadblock to CAD based optimization, where the parameterization of the model does not offer the shape sufficient flexibility for a truly optimized shape to be created. A technique has been developed which uses adjoint based sensitivity maps to predict
the sensitivity of performance to the addition to a model of four different feature types, allowing the feature providing the greatest benefit to be selected. The optimum position to add the feature is also discussed. It is anticipated that the approach could be used to iteratively add features to a model, providing greater flexibility to the shape of the model, and allowing the newly-added parameters to be used as design variables in a subsequent shape optimization.

Received signal strength in large-scale wireless relay sensor network: a stochastic ray approach

The authors consider a point percolation lattice representation of a large-scale wireless relay sensor network (WRSN) deployed in a cluttered environment. Each relay sensor corresponds to a grid point in the random lattice and the signal sent by the source is modelled as an ensemble of photons that spread in the space, which may 'hit' other sensors and are 'scattered' around. At each hit, the relay node forwards the received signal to its nearest neighbour through direction-selective relaying. The authors first derive the distribution that a relay path reaches a prescribed location after undergoing certain number of hops. Subsequently, a closed-form expression of the average received signal strength (RSS) at the destination can be computed as the summation of all signal echoes' energy. Finally, the effect of the anomalous diffusion exponent ß on the mean RSS in a WRSN is studied, for which it is found that the RSS scaling exponent e is given by (3ß-1)/ß. The results would provide useful insight into the design and deployment of large-scale WRSNs in future. © 2011 The Institution of Engineering and Technology.

Reliability Assessment of 3-D Space Frame Structures Applying Stochastic Finite Element Analysis

Throughout design development of satellite structure, stress engineer is usually challenged with randomness in applied loads and material properties. To overcome such problem, a risk-based design is applied which estimates satellite structure probability of failure under static and thermal loads. Determining probability of failure can help to update initially applied factors of safety that were used during structure preliminary design phase. These factors of safety are related to the satellite mission objective. Sensitivity-based analysis is to be implemented in the context of finite element analysis (probabilistic finite element method or stochastic finite element method (SFEM)) to determine the probability of failure for satellite structure or one of its components.