Limitations of instantaneous water quality sampling in surface-water catchments: Comparison with near-continuous phosphorus time-series data.

The validity of load estimates from intermittent, instantaneous grab sampling is dependent on adequate spatial coverage by monitoring networks and a sampling frequency that re?ects the variability in the system under study. Catchments with a ?ashy hydrology due to surface runoff pose a particular challenge as intense short duration rainfall events may account for a signi?cant portion of the total diffuse transfer of pollution from soil to water in any hydrological year. This can also be exacerbated by the presence of strong background pollution signals from point sources during low flows. In this paper, a range of sampling methodologies and load estimation techniques are applied to phosphorus data from such a surface water dominated river system, instrumented at three sub-catchments (ranging from 3 to 5 km2 in area) with near-continuous monitoring stations. Systematic and Monte Carlo approaches were applied to simulate grab sampling using multiple strategies and to calculate an estimated load, Le based on established load estimation methods. Comparison with the actual load, Lt, revealed signi?cant average underestimation, of up to 60%, and high variability for all feasible sampling approaches. Further analysis of the time series provides an insight into these observations; revealing peak frequencies and power-law scaling in the distributions of P concentration, discharge and load associated with surface runoff and background transfers. Results indicate that only near-continuous monitoring that re?ects the rapid temporal changes in these river systems is adequate for comparative monitoring and evaluation purposes. While the implications of this analysis may be more tenable to small scale ?ashy systems, this represents an appropriate scale in terms of evaluating catchment mitigation strategies such as agri-environmental policies for managing diffuse P transfers in complex landscapes.

Politics and Literary Prizes:A Case Study of Spanish America and the Premio Cervantes

The Premio Cervantes, one of the most prestigious prizes awarded for literature in the Spanish language, was established in 1976 as Spain negotiated the Transition to democracy in the post-Franco era. This article examines the context in which the prize was created and subsequently used to negotiate inter-continental relations between Spain and Latin America. The article highlights the exchanges of economic, political and symbolic capital which took place between the Spanish State, its representative, the King of Spain, and winning Latin American authors. Significantly, the involvement of the Spanish State is shown to bring political capital into play in a way that commercial prizes do not. In so doing, the Premio Cervantes gives those formerly at the colonial periphery the opportunity to speak out and negotiate the terms of a new kind of relationship with the former colonial center.

Nonlinear time series prediction based on a power-law noise model

In this paper we investigate the influence of a power-law noise model, also called noise, on the performance of a feed-forward neural network used to predict time series. We introduce an optimization procedure that optimizes the parameters the neural networks by maximizing the likelihood function based on the power-law model. We show that our optimization procedure minimizes the mean squared leading to an optimal prediction. Further, we present numerical results applying method to time series from the logistic map and the annual number of sunspots demonstrate that a power-law noise model gives better results than a Gaussian model.

NHS Inquiries: A Time Series Analysis

This article provides a time series analysis of NHS public inquiries and inquiries related to health against the background of recent policy changes which are centralizing hazardous incident investigations within agencies such as the Healthcare Commission.

Spanish Golden Age Poetry in Motion: The Dynamics of Creation and Conversation.

The fourteen essays of this volume engage in distinct ways with the matter of motion in early modern Spanish poetics, without limiting the dialectic of stasis and movement to any single sphere or manifestation. Interrogation of the interdependence of tradition and innovation, poetry, power and politics, shifting signifiers, the intersection of topography and deviant temporalities, the movement between the secular and the sacred, tensions between centres and peripheries, issues of manuscript circulation and reception, poetic calls and echoes across continents and centuries, and between creative writing and reading subjects, all demonstrate that Helgerson's central notion of conspicuous movement is relevant beyond early sixteenth-century secular poetics, By opening it up we approximate a better understanding of poetry's flexible spatio-temporal co-ordinates in a period of extraordinary historical circumstances and conterminous radical cultural transformation