Using Coxian Phase-Type Distributions to Identify Patient Characteristics for Duration of Stay in Hospital

Coxian phase-type distributions are a special type of Markov model that describes duration until an event occurs in terms of a process consisting of a sequence of latent phases. This paper considers the use of Coxian phase-type distributions for modelling patient duration of stay for the elderly in hospital and investigates the potential for using the resulting distribution as a classifying variable to identify common characteristics between different groups of patients according to their (anticipated) length of stay in hospital. The identification of common characteristics for patient length of stay groups would offer hospital managers and clinicians possible insights into the overall management and bed allocation of the hospital wards.

Length of Stay-Based Patient Flow Models: Recent Developments and Future Directions

Modelling patient flow in health care systems is vital in understanding the system activity and may therefore prove to be useful in improving their functionality. An extensively used measure is the average length of stay which, although easy to calculate and quantify, is not considered appropriate when the distribution is very long-tailed. In fact, simple deterministic models are generally considered inadequate because of the necessity for models to reflect the complex, variable, dynamic and multidimensional nature of the systems. This paper focuses on modelling length of stay and flow of patients. An overview of such modelling techniques is provided, with particular attention to their impact and suitability in managing a hospital service.

Simulating Coxian Phase-type Distributions for Patient Survival

Coxian phase-type distributions are a special type of Markov model that can be used to represent survival times in terms of phases through which an individual may progress until they eventually leave the system completely. Previous research has considered the Coxian phase-type distribution to be ideal in representing patient survival in hospital. However, problems exist in fitting the distributions. This paper investigates the problems that arise with the fitting process by simulating various Coxian phase-type models for the representation of patient survival and examining the estimated parameter values and eigenvalues obtained. The results indicate that numerical methods previously used for fitting the model parameters do not always converge. An alternative technique is therefore considered. All methods are influenced by the choice of initial parameter values. The investigation uses a data set of 1439 elderly patients and models their survival time, the length of time they spend in a UK hospital.

Effect of tailored practice and patient care plans on secondary prevention of heart disease in general practice: cluster randomised controlled trial

Objective: To test the effectiveness of a complex intervention designed, within a theoretical framework, to improve outcomes for patients with coronary heart disease. Design: Cluster randomised controlled multicentre trial. Setting: General practices in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, regions with different healthcare systems. Participants: 903 patients with established coronary heart disease registered with one of 48 practices. Intervention: Tailored care plans for practices (practice based training in prescribing and behaviour change, administrative support, quarterly newsletter), and tailored care plans for patients (motivational interviewing, goal identification, and target setting for lifestyle change) with reviews every four months at the practices. Control practices provided usual care. Main outcome measures: The proportion of patients at 18 month follow-up above target levels for blood pressure and total cholesterol concentration, and those admitted to hospital, and changes in physical and mental health status (SF-12). Results: At baseline the numbers (proportions) of patients above the recommended limits were: systolic blood pressure greater than 140 mm Hg (305/899; 33.9%, 95% confidence interval 30.8% to 33.9%), diastolic blood pressure greater than 90 mm Hg (111/901; 12.3%, 10.2% to 14.5%), and total cholesterol concentration greater than 5 mmol/l (188/860; 20.8%, 19.1% to 24.6%). At the 18 month follow-up there were no significant differences between intervention and control groups in the numbers (proportions) of patients above the recommended limits: systolic blood pressure, intervention 98/360 (27.2%) v control, 133/405 (32.8%), odds ratio 1.51 (95% confidence interval 0.99 to 2.30; P=0.06); diastolic blood pressure, intervention 32/360 (8.9%) v control, 40/405 (9.9%), 1.40 (0.75 to 2.64; P=0.29); and total cholesterol concentration, intervention 52/342 (15.2%) v control, 64/391 (16.4%), 1.13 (0.63 to 2.03; P=0.65). The number of patients admitted to hospital over the 18 month study period significantly decreased in the intervention group compared with the control group: 107/415 (25.8%) v 148/435 (34.0%), 1.56 (1.53 to 2.60; P=0.03). Conclusions: Admissions to hospital were significantly reduced after an intensive 18 month intervention to improve outcomes for patients with coronary heart disease, but no other clinical benefits were shown, possibly because of a ceiling effect related to improved management of the disease. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN24081411.

Copying letters to patients with cystic fibrosis (CF): Letter content and patient perceptions of benefit

Background: Copying letters involves generating an extra copy of all correspondence between healthcare professionals about the patient, to the patient.

Birthweight and the risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes: a meta-analysis of observational studies using individual patient data

Aims/hypothesis: We investigated whether children who are heavier at birth have an increased risk of type 1 diabetes. Methods: Relevant studies published before February 2009 were identified from literature searches using MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE. Authors of all studies containing relevant data were contacted and asked to provide individual patient data or conduct pre-specified analyses. Risk estimates of type 1 diabetes by category of birthweight were calculated for each study, before and after adjustment for potential confounders. Meta-analysis techniques were then used to derive combined ORs and investigate heterogeneity between studies. Results: Data were available for 29 predominantly European studies (five cohort, 24 case-control studies), including 12,807 cases of type 1 diabetes. Overall, studies consistently demonstrated that children with birthweight from 3.5 to 4 kg had an increased risk of diabetes of 6% (OR 1.06 [95% CI 1.01-1.11]; p=0.02) and children with birthweight over 4 kg had an increased risk of 10% (OR 1.10 [95% CI 1.04-1.19]; p=0.003), compared with children weighing 3.0 to 3.5 kg at birth. This corresponded to a linear increase in diabetes risk of 3% per 500 g increase in birthweight (OR 1.03 [95% CI 1.00-1.06]; p=0.03). Adjustments for potential confounders such as gestational age, maternal age, birth order, Caesarean section, breastfeeding and maternal diabetes had little effect on these findings. Conclusions/interpretation: Children who are heavier at birth have a significant and consistent, but relatively small increase in risk of type 1 diabetes. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.


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The effect of patient characteristics upon uptake of the influenza vaccination: a study comparing community based older adults in two healthcare systems

Background: Uptake of influenza vaccination represents a simple marker of proactive care of older people. However, many still do not receive the vaccine. To understand this challenge better, we investigated the relationship between patient characteristics (demographic, physical and psychological health, and health service use) and vaccination uptake in a sample of community-dwelling older people in two adjacent but differently structured healthcare systems (Northern Ireland (NI) and the Republic of Ireland (RoI)). Methods: 2,033 randomly selected community-dwelling older adults (65 years and older) were interviewed in their homes. Results: Rates of uptake were 78% in NI and 72% in RoI. Uptake was greater with older age (odds ratio (OR) 1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.3-2.1, p

Pre-Operative Visits to Reduce Patient Anxiety: A Study

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of pre-operative visits by theatre nurses on pre- and post-operative levels of anxiety in two groups of general surgical patients, and to see if the outcome was reflected in the level of post-operative pain, nausea, mobility or length of hospitalisation. One group received pre-operative visits while the other group did not. Results of the study showed a significant decrease in anxiety 24 to 72 hours post-operatively for the visited group. A positive relationship between pre-operative anxiety levels and the level of pain, nausea and lack of independence experienced by both groups was also found. Length of hospitalisation was unaffected by the level of anxiety experienced in both groups. The author recommends that all surgical patients should receive a visit from theatre nurses before their operation.

Promoting Health Behaviour Change in the Cardiac Patient

The importance of giving patients advice in relation to positive health behaviour change geared towards maximizing physical health must not be overlooked and is an important role of the cardiac nurse in contemporary health care. However, over-reliance on offering advice can often be counter-productive and less likely to achieve effective change. Patients are more likely to make positive health behaviour changes when they self-generate their own solutions to the health issues and problems that they face. In this article, the authors encourage cardiac nurses to embrace a less directive and more facilitative approach to patient health behaviour change in light of the mounting evidence that exists to the effectiveness of motivational interviewing techniques.

Recurrent lower gastrointestinal bleeding secondary to cytomegalovirus-associated colonic ulcer in a non human immunodeficiency virus infected patient:Timely diagnosis and treatment averted surgery

Mr C, a 68-year-old Chinese male with diabetes mellitus, previous stroke and ischaemic cardiomyopathy on clopidogrel, presented with haematochezia. Colonoscopy showed a sigmoid ulcer, which was treated endoscopically. Histology of the biopsy from the ulcer revealed non-specific changes. However, he presented with recurrent bleeding from this non-healing sigmoid ulcer. A review of the histologic specimen revealed CMV intranuclear inclusion bodies. He was treated with intravenous ganciclovir, with no further hematochezia.

Keywords Hematochezia, cytomegalovirus, ulcer