Risk: A Study of Its Origins, History and Politics

Over a period of several centuries, the academic study of risk has evolved as a distinct body of thought, which continues to influence conceptual developments in fields such as economics, management, politics and sociology. However, few scholarly works have given a chronological account of cultural and intellectual trends relating to the understanding and analysis of risks. Risk: A Study of its Origins, History and Politics aims to fill this gap by providing a detailed study of key turning points in the evolution of society's understanding of risk. Using a wide range of primary and secondary materials, Matthias Beck and Beth Kewell map the political origins and moral reach of some of the most influential ideas associated with risk and uncertainty at specific periods of time. The historical focus of the book makes it an excellent introduction for readers who wish to go beyond specific risk management techniques and their theoretical underpinnings, to gain an understanding of the history and politics of risk.

Concise Review: Stem Cell Effects in Radiation Risk

Stem cells of normal mammalian tissues are defined as nonspecialized cells that have two critical properties: (a) the ability to renew themselves through cell division and (b) the potency to differentiate into other cell types. Therefore, they play a crucial role in development and in tissue homeostasis during adult life. Being long-lived, they can be the targets of environmental carcinogens leading to the accumulation of consecutive genetic changes. Hence, the genome of stem cells must be exceptionally well protected, and several protective mechanisms have evolved to ensure the genetic integrity of the stem cell compartment in any given tissue. Ionizing radiation exposure can disrupt tissue homeostasis both through the induction of cell killing/depletion of radiosensitive stem cells, leading to loss of tissue functionality and by genotoxic damage, increasing overall risk of cancer. We will review the current knowledge about radiation effects in adult stem cells of specific normal tissues, including skin, breast, and brain, examine parallels, as well as differences with cancer stem cells, and discuss the relevance of stem cell effects to radiation risk and radiotherapy. STEM CELLS 2011;29:1315-1321

Unfunded pension liabilities and sponsoring firm credit risk: an international analysis of corporate bond spreads

This paper tests empirically whether pension information derived by corporate pension accounting disclosures is priced in corporate bond spreads. The model represents a hybrid of more traditional accounting ratio-based models of credit risk and structural models of bond spreads initiated by Merton (1974). The model is fitted to 5 years of data from 2002 to 2006 featuring companies from the US and Europe. The paper finds that while unfunded pension liabilities are priced in the overall sample, they are not priced as aggressively as traditional leverage. Furthermore, an extended model shows that the pension–credit risk relation is most evident in the US and Germany, where unfunded pension liabilities are priced more aggressively than traditional forms of leverage. No pension–credit risk relation is found in the other countries sampled, notably the UK, Netherlands and France.

Evidence for Alteration of EZH2, BMI1, and KDM6A and Epigenetic Reprogramming in Human Papillomavirus Type 16 E6/E7-Expressing Keratinocytes

A number of epigenetic alterations occur in both the virus and host cellular genomes during human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated carcinogenesis, and investigations of such alterations, including changes in chromatin proteins and histone modifications, have the potential to lead to therapeutic epigenetic reversion. We report here that transformed HPV16 E6/E7-expressing primary human foreskin keratinocytes (HFKs) (E6/E7 cells) demonstrate increased expression of the PRC2 methyltransferase EZH2 at both the mRNA and protein levels but do not exhibit the expected increase in trimethylated H3K27 (H3K27me3) compared to normal keratinocytes. In contrast, these cells show a reduction in global H3K27me3 levels in vitro, as well as upregulation of the KDM6A demethylase. We further show for the first time that transformation with the HPV16 E6 and E7 oncogenes also results in an increase in phosphorylated EZH2 serine 21 (P-EZH2-Ser21), mediated by active Akt, and in a downregulation of the PRC1 protein BMI1 in these cells. High-grade squamous cervical intraepithelial lesions also showed a loss of H3K27me3 in the presence of increased expression of EZH2. Correlating with the loss of H3K27me3, E6/E7 cells exhibited derepression of specific EZH2-, KMD6A-, and BMI1-targeted HOX genes. These results suggest that the observed reduction in H3K27me3 may be due to a combination of reduced activities/levels of specific polycomb proteins and increases in demethylases. The dysregulation of multiple chromatin proteins resulting in the loss of global H3K27me3 and the transcriptional reprogramming in HPV16 E6/E7-infected cells could provide an epigenetic signature associated with risk and/or progression of HPV16-associated cancers, as well as the potential for epigenetic reversion in the future.

Dynamic mechanical analysis of polymeric systems of pharmaceutical and biomedical significance

Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) is an analytical technique in which an oscillating stress is applied to a sample and the resultant strain measured as functions of both oscillatory frequency and temperature. From this, a comprehensive knowledge of the relationships between the various viscoelastic parameters, e.g. storage and loss moduli, mechanical damping parameter (tan delta), dynamic viscosity, and temperature may be obtained. An introduction to the theory of DMA and pharmaceutical and biomedical examples of the use of this technique are presented in this concise review. In particular, examples are described in which DMA has been employed to quantify the storage and loss moduli of polymers, polymer damping properties, glass transition temperature(s), rate and extent of curing of polymer systems, polymer-polymer compatibility and identification of sol-gel transitions. Furthermore, future applications of the technique for the optimisation of the formulation of pharmaceutical and biomedical systems are discussed. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The Governance of Sexual Offending Across Europe: Penal Policies, Political Economies and the Institutionalization of Risk

This article examines why England and Wales have comparatively one of the most stringent systems for the governance of sexual offending within Western Europe. While England and Wales, like the USA, have adopted broadly exclusionary, managerialist penal policies based around incapacitation and targeted surveillance, many other Western European countries have opted for more inclusionary therapeutic interventions. Divergences in state approaches to sex offender risk, particularly in relation to notification and vetting schemes, are initially examined with reference to the respective theoretical frameworks of ‘policy transfer’ and differing political economies. Chiefly, however, differences in penal policies are attributed to the social and political construction of risk and its control. There may be multiple expressions of risk relating to expert, lay, moral or emotive aspects. It is argued, however, that it is the particular convergence and alignment of these dimensions on the part of the various stakeholders in the UK – government, media, public and professional – that leads to risk becoming institutionalized in the form of punitive regulatory policies for managing the dangerous.

Breast Cancer Risk in Relation to Occupations with Exposure to Carcinogens and Endocrine Disruptors:a Canadian Case-Control Study

Background

Endocrine disrupting chemicals and carcinogens, some of which may not yet have been classified as such, are present in many occupational environments and could increase breast cancer risk. Prior research has identified associations with breast cancer and work in agricultural and industrial settings. The purpose of this study was to further characterize possible links between breast cancer risk and occupation, particularly in farming and manufacturing, as well as to examine the impacts of early agricultural exposures, and exposure effects that are specific to the endocrine receptor status of tumours.

Methods

1005 breast cancer cases referred by a regional cancer center and 1147 randomly-selected community controls provided detailed data including occupational and reproductive histories. All reported jobs were industry- and occupation-coded for the construction of cumulative exposure metrics representing likely exposure to carcinogens and endocrine disruptors. In a frequency-matched case?control design, exposure effects were estimated using conditional logistic regression.

Results

Across all sectors, women in jobs with potentially high exposures to carcinogens and endocrine disruptors had elevated breast cancer risk (OR = 1.42; 95% CI, 1.18-1.73, for 10 years exposure duration). Specific sectors with elevated risk included: agriculture (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.01-1.82); bars-gambling (OR = 2.28; 95% CI, 0.94-5.53); automotive plastics manufacturing (OR = 2.68; 95% CI, 1.47-4.88), food canning (OR = 2.35; 95% CI, 1.00-5.53), and metalworking (OR = 1.73; 95% CI, 1.02-2.92). Estrogen receptor status of tumors with elevated risk differed by occupational grouping. Premenopausal breast cancer risk was highest for automotive plastics (OR = 4.76; 95% CI, 1.58-14.4) and food canning (OR = 5.70; 95% CI, 1.03-31.5).

Conclusions

These observations support hypotheses linking breast cancer risk and exposures likely to include carcinogens and endocrine disruptors, and demonstrate the value of detailed work histories in environmental and occupational epidemiology.

Arsenic behaviour from groundwater and soil to crops:impacts on agriculture and food safety

High levels of As in groundwater commonly found in Bangladesh and other parts of Asia not only pose a risk via drinking water consumption but also a risk in agricultural sustainability and food safety. This review attempts to provide an overview of current knowledge and gaps related to the assessment and management of these risks, including the behaviour of As in the soil-plant system, uptake, phytotoxicity, As speciation in foods, dietary habits, and human health risks. Special emphasis has been given to the situation in Bangladesh, where groundwater via shallow tube wells is the most important source of irrigation water in the dry season. Within the soil-plant system, there is a distinct difference in behaviour of As under flooded conditions, where arsenite (AsIII) predominates, and under nonflooded conditions, where arsenate (AsV) predominates. The former is regarded as most toxic to humans and plants. Limited data indicate that As-contaminated irrigation water can result in a slow buildup of As in the topsoil. In some cases the buildup is reflected by the As levels in crops, in others not. It is not yet possible to predict As uptake and toxicity in plants based on soil parameters. It is unknown under what conditions and in what time frame As is building up in the soil. Representative phytotoxicity data necessary to evaluate current and future soil concentrations are not yet available. Although there are no indications that crop production is currently inhibited by As, long-term risks are clearly present. Therefore, with concurrent assessments of the risks, management options to further prevent As accumulation in the topsoil should already have been explored. With regard to human health, data on As speciation in foods in combination with food consumption data are needed to assess dietary exposure, and these data should include spatial and seasonal variability. It is important to control confounding factors in assessing the risks. In a country where malnutrition is prevalent, levels of inorganic As in foods should be balanced against the nutritional value of the foods. Regarding agriculture, As is only one of the many factors that may pose a risk to the sustainability of crop production. Other risk factors such as nutrient depletion and loss of organic matter also must be taken into account to set priorities in terms of research, management, and overall strategy.

What do men understand about lifetime risk following genetic testing?:The effect of context and numeracy.

Genetic testing for gene mutations associated with specific cancers provides an opportunity for early detection, surveillance, and intervention (Smith, Cokkinides, & Brawley, 2008). Lifetime risk estimates provided by genetic testing refer to the risk of developing a specific disease within one's lifetime, and evidence suggests that this is important for the medical choices people make, as well as their future family and financial plans. The present studies tested whether adult men understand the lifetime risks of prostate cancer informed by genetic testing. In 2 experiments, adult men were asked to interpret the lifetime risk information provided in statements about risks of prostate cancer. Statement format was manipulated such that the most appropriate interpretation of risk statements referred to an absolute risk of cancer in experiment 1 and a relative risk in experiment 2. Experiment 1 revealed that few men correctly interpreted the lifetime risks of cancer when these refer to an absolute risk of cancer, and numeracy levels positively predicted correct responding. The proportion of correct responses was greatly improved in experiment 2 when the most appropriate interpretation of risk statements referred instead to a relative rather than an absolute risk, and numeracy levels were less involved. Understanding of lifetime risk information is often poor because individuals incorrectly believe that these refer to relative rather than absolute risks of cancer.

Genetic and Epigenetic Risk Factors for Diabetic Kidney Disease

Diabetes is increasing at daunting rates worldwide, and approximately 40% of affected individuals will develop kidney complications. Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is the leading cause of end-stage kidney disease, and there are significant healthcare costs providing appropriate renal replacement therapies to affected individuals. For several decades, investigators have sought to discover inherited risk factors and biomarkers for DKD. In recent years, advances in high-throughput laboratory techniques and computational analyses, coupled with the establishment of multicenter consortia, have helped to identify genetic loci that are replicated across multiple populations. Several genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been conducted for DKD with further meta-analysis of GWAS and comprehensive ”single gene” meta-analyses now published. Despite these efforts, much of the inherited predisposition to DKD remains unexplained. Meta-analyses and integrated–omics pathway studies are being used to help elucidate underlying genetic risks. Epigenetic phenomena are increasingly recognized as important drivers of disease risk, and several epigenome-wide association studies have now been completed. This review describes key findings and ongoing genetic and epigenetic initiatives for DKD.

Dietary Carbohydrate Intake, Glycemic Index, and Glycemic Load and Endometrial Cancer Risk: A Prospective Cohort Study

Endometrial cancer risk has been directly associated with glycemic load. However, few studies have investigated this link, and the etiological role of specific dietary carbohydrate components remains unclear. Our aim was to investigate associations of carbohydrate intake, glycemic index, and glycemic load with endometrial cancer risk in the US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Recruitment took place in 1993-2001. Over a median of 9.0 years of follow-up through 2009, 386 women developed endometrial cancer among 36,115 considered in the analysis. Dietary intakes were assessed using a 124-item diet history questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Significant inverse associations were detected between endometrial cancer risk and total available carbohydrate intake (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49, 0.90), total sugars intake (HR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.52, 0.96), and glycemic load (HR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.84) when women in the highest quartile of intake were compared with those in the lowest. These inverse associations were strongest among overweight and obese women. No associations with endometrial cancer risk were observed for glycemic index or dietary fiber. Our findings contrast with previous evidence and suggest that high carbohydrate intakes and glycemic loads are protective against endometrial cancer development. Further clarification of these associations is warranted.

Achalasia: A review of clinical diagnosis, epidemiology, treatment and outcomes

Achalasia is a neurodegenerative motility disorder of the oesophagus resulting in deranged oesophageal peristalsis and loss of lower oesophageal sphincter function. Historically, annual achalasia incidence rates were believed to be low, approximately 0.5-1.2 per 100000. More recent reports suggest that annual incidence rates have risen to 1.6 per 100000 in some populations. The aetiology of achalasia is still unclear but is likely to be multi-factorial. Suggested causes include environmental or viral exposures resulting in inflammation of the oesophageal myenteric plexus, which elicits an autoimmune response. Risk of achalasia may be elevated in a sub-group of genetically susceptible people. Improvement in the diagnosis of achalasia, through the introduction of high resolution manometry with pressure topography plotting, has resulted in the development of a novel classification system for achalasia. This classification system can evaluate patient prognosis and predict responsiveness to treatment. There is currently much debate over whether pneumatic dilatation is a superior method compared to the Heller's myotomy procedure in the treatment of achalasia. A recent comparative study found equal efficacy, suggesting that patient preference and local expertise should guide the choice. Although achalasia is a relatively rare condition, it carries a risk of complications, including aspiration pneumonia and oesophageal cancer. The risk of both squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus is believed to be significantly increased in patients with achalasia, however the absolute excess risk is small. Therefore, it is currently unknown whether a surveillance programme in achalasia patients would be effective or cost-effective.

Polymorphisms near TBX5 and GDF7 are associated with increased risk for Barrett's esophagus

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Barrett's esophagus (BE) increases the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We found the risk to be BE has been associated with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on chromosome 6p21 (within the HLA region) and on 16q23, where the closest protein-coding gene is FOXF1. Subsequently, the Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium (BEACON) identified risk loci for BE and esophageal adenocarcinoma near CRTC1 and BARX1, and within 100 kb of FOXP1. We aimed to identify further SNPs that increased BE risk and to validate previously reported associations.

METHODS: We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify variants associated with BE and further analyzed promising variants identified by BEACON by genotyping 10,158 patients with BE and 21,062 controls.

RESULTS: We identified 2 SNPs not previously associated with BE: rs3072 (2p24.1; odds ratio [OR] = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.09-1.18; P = 1.8 × 10(-11)) and rs2701108 (12q24.21; OR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.86-0.93; P = 7.5 × 10(-9)). The closest protein-coding genes were respectively GDF7 (rs3072), which encodes a ligand in the bone morphogenetic protein pathway, and TBX5 (rs2701108), which encodes a transcription factor that regulates esophageal and cardiac development. Our data also supported in BE cases 3 risk SNPs identified by BEACON (rs2687201, rs11789015, and rs10423674). Meta-analysis of all data identified another SNP associated with BE and esophageal adenocarcinoma: rs3784262, within ALDH1A2 (OR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93; P = 3.72 × 10(-9)).

CONCLUSIONS: We identified 2 loci associated with risk of BE and provided data to support a further locus. The genes we found to be associated with risk for BE encode transcription factors involved in thoracic, diaphragmatic, and esophageal development or proteins involved in the inflammatory response.

How much risk ought we to take? Exploring the possibilities of risk-sensitive consequentialism in the context of climate engineering

When it comes to assessing the deontic status of acts and policies in the context of risk and uncertainty, moral theories are often at a loss. In this paper we hope to show that employing a multi-dimensional consequentialist framework provides ethical guidance for decision-making in complex situations. The paper starts by briefly rehearsing consequentialist responses to the issue of risk, as well as their shortcomings. We then go on to present our own proposal based on three dimensions: wellbeing, fairness and probability. In the last section we apply our approach to a comparison of different climate policy options, including stratospheric solar-radiation management.

THE SAAF STUDY: evaluation of the Safeguarding Children Assessment and Analysis Framework (SAAF), compared with management as usual, for improving outcomes for children and young people who have experienced, or are at risk of, maltreatment: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Serious case reviews and research studies have indicated weaknesses in risk assessments conducted by child protection social workers. Social workers are adept at gathering information but struggle with analysis and assessment of risk. The Department for Education wants to know if the use of a structured decision-making tool can improve child protection assessments of risk.

Methods/design: This multi-site, cluster-randomised trial will assess the effectiveness of the Safeguarding Children Assessment and Analysis Framework (SAAF). This structured decision-making tool aims to improve social workers' assessments of harm, of future risk and parents' capacity to change. The comparison is management as usual.

Inclusion criteria: Children's Services Departments (CSDs) in England willing to make relevant teams available to be randomised, and willing to meet the trial's training and data collection requirements.

Exclusion criteria: CSDs where there were concerns about performance; where a major organisational restructuring was planned or under way; or where other risk assessment tools were in use.

Six CSDs are participating in this study. Social workers in the experimental arm will receive 2 days training in SAAF together with a range of support materials, and access to limited telephone consultation post-training. The primary outcome is child maltreatment. This will be assessed using data collected nationally on two key performance indicators: the first is the number of children in a year who have been subject to a second Child Protection Plan (CPP); the second is the number of re-referrals of children because of related concerns about maltreatment. Secondary outcomes are: i) the quality of assessments judged against a schedule of quality criteria and ii) the relationship between the three assessments required by the structured decision-making tool (level of harm, risk of (re) abuse and prospects for successful intervention).

Discussion: This is the first study to examine the effectiveness of SAAF. It will contribute to a very limited literature on the contribution that structured decision-making tools can make to improving risk assessment and case planning in child protection and on what is involved in their effective implementation.