Incorporating Higher Moments into Value at Risk Forecasting

Value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting generally relies on a parametric density function of portfolio returns that ignores higher moments or assumes them constant. In this paper, we propose a simple approach to forecasting of a portfolio VaR. We employ the Gram-Charlier expansion (GCE) augmenting the standard normal distribution with the first four moments, which are allowed to vary over time. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the GCE approach to other models of VaR forecasting and conclude that it provides accurate and robust estimates of the realized VaR. In spite of its simplicity, on our dataset GCE outperforms other estimates that are generated by both constant and time-varying higher-moments models.

History, an Exit Strategy: The Retrofuture Fabulations of kara lynch

A cartographer constructs a map of an individual creative history, that of the American artist kara lynch, as it emerges in connection to a collective history of African American cultural expression. Positioning history as complex, dynamic systems of interwoven memory networks, the map follows lynch’s traversals through various “zones of cultural haunting”: places where collective memories made invisible through systematic processes of cultural erasure may be recovered and revived. Through these traversals, which are inspired by lynch’s “forever project” Invisible, the map covers such terrains as haunted narratives, mechanisms of abstraction and coding within African American media production, water as an informational technology, the distribution of memory in blood, the dialectics of materiality and immateriality that frame considerations of black subjectivity, and the possibility that place of music might not be the site of sound but instead the social production of memory.

Gamma Knife Radiosurgery as a Therapeutic Strategy for Intracranial Sarcomatous Metastases

Purpose: To determine the indication and outcomes for Gamma Knife stereotactic radiosurgery (GKSRS) in the care of patients with intracranial sarcomatous metastases. Methods and Materials: Data from 21 patients who underwent radiosurgery for 60 sarcomatous intracranial metastases (54 parenchymal and 6 dural-based) were studied. Nine patients had radiosurgery for solitary tumors and 12 for multiple tumors. The primary pathology was metastatic leiomyosarcoma (4 patients), osteosarcoma (3 patients), soft-tissue sarcoma (5 patients), chondrosarcoma (2 patients), alveolar soft part sarcoma (2 patients), and rhabdomyosarcoma, Ewing's sarcoma, liposarcoma, neurofibrosarcoma, and synovial sarcoma (1 patient each). Twenty patients received multimodality management for their primary tumor, and 1 patient had no evidence of systemic disease. The mean tumor volume was 6.2 cm 3 (range, 0.07-40.9 cm 3), and a median margin dose of 16 Gy was administered. Three patients had progressive intracranial disease despite fractionated whole-brain radiotherapy before SRS. Results: A local tumor control rate of 88% was achieved (including patients receiving boost, up-front, and salvage SRS). New remote brain metastases developed in 7 patients (33%). The median survival after diagnosis of intracranial metastasis was 16 months, and the 1-year survival rate was 61%. Conclusions: Gamma Knife radiosurgery was a well-tolerated and initially effective therapy in the management of patients with sarcomatous intracranial metastases. However, many patients, including those who also received fractionated whole-brain radiotherapy, developed progressive new brain disease. © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Boost radiosurgery as a strategy after failure of initial management of pediatric primitive neuroectodermal tumors Clinical article

The aim in this study was to determine the outcomes of boost stereotactic radiosurgery, specifically Gamma Knife surgery (GKS), for recurrent primitive neuroectodermal tumors (PNETs) in children in whom initial multimodality management had failed.

Towards a strategy for the conservation of the freshwater pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera in County Donegal, Ireland

This study attempts to identify the habitat requirements of the pearl mussel Margaritifea margaritifera in County Donegal, in north west Ireland, an area with little urban, industrial or intensive agricultural development. No mussels occur in rivers where calcium and conductivity levels are high or where the substratum is predominantly bedrock or fine sediment but it was not possible to distinguish clearly between mussel and non-mussel sites on the basis of ordination analysis. However, rivers which still support mussels and rivers with historical records of mussels are loosely grouped. Rivers which formerly supported mussels but lack living M. margaritifera appear to have suitable habitat for mussels; pearl fishing is the most likely reason for the extinction of these mussel populations. Where population densities are high, for example in locations on the rivers Eske, Clady and Owenea, conservation may necessitate the establishment of reserves. The prospect for the successful reintroduction of mussels into former mussel rivers such as the Finn and Eany Water, where suitable habitat exists and water quality is high, is very good.