Hierarchical Bayesian models in ecology: Reconstructing species interaction networks from non-homogeneous species abundance data

The relationships among organisms and their surroundings can be of immense complexity. To describe and understand an ecosystem as a tangled bank, multiple ways of interaction and their effects have to be considered, such as predation, competition, mutualism and facilitation. Understanding the resulting interaction networks is a challenge in changing environments, e.g. to predict knock-on effects of invasive species and to understand how climate change impacts biodiversity. The elucidation of complex ecological systems with their interactions will benefit enormously from the development of new machine learning tools that aim to infer the structure of interaction networks from field data. In the present study, we propose a novel Bayesian regression and multiple changepoint model (BRAM) for reconstructing species interaction networks from observed species distributions. The model has been devised to allow robust inference in the presence of spatial autocorrelation and distributional heterogeneity. We have evaluated the model on simulated data that combines a trophic niche model with a stochastic population model on a 2-dimensional lattice, and we have compared the performance of our model with L1-penalized sparse regression (LASSO) and non-linear Bayesian networks with the BDe scoring scheme. In addition, we have applied our method to plant ground coverage data from the western shore of the Outer Hebrides with the objective to infer the ecological interactions. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identifying Economically Vulnerable Groups as the Economic Crisis Emerged

A frequent refrain during recent debates on welfare cuts and tax increases has related to the need to "protect the vulnerable". However, it is far from clear that a consensus exists on which individuals or groups are to be included under this heading with a consequent lack of clarity for the policy implications of pursuing this goal. In this paper, operating with a conception of social exclusion that incorporates notions of dynamics and multidimensionality, we make use of EU-SILC 2008 data for Ireland to clarify the distinction between income poverty and economic vulnerability. We then proceed to consider the relationship between these outcomes and multiple deprivation, financial pressures and perceptions of recent and future economic prospects. Our analysis is then extended to compare patterns of risk for poverty and vulnerability in relation to key socio-economic groups. Finally, we will consider the relationship between poverty and vulnerability and the distribution of welfare dependence. Our analysis suggests that the vulnerable but non-poor group may need to be a key focus of policy attention in the future.

Understanding the socio-economic distribution of multiple deprivation: An application of self-organising maps

In this paper we seek to contribute to recent efforts to develop and implement multi-dimensional approaches to social exclusion by applying self-organising maps (SOMs) to a set of material deprivation indicators from the Irish component of EU-SILC. The first stage of our analysis involves the identification of sixteen clusters that confirm the multi-dimensional nature of deprivation in contemporary Ireland and the limitations of focusing solely on income. In going beyond this mapping stage, we consider both patterns of socio-economic differentiation in relation to cluster membership and the extent to which such membership contributes to our understanding of economic stress. Our analysis makes clear the continuing importance of traditional forms of stratification relating to factors such as income, social class and housing tenure in accounting for patterns of multiple deprivation. However, it also confirms the role of acute life events and life cycle and location influences. Most importantly, it demonstrates that conclusions relating to the relative impact of different kinds of socio-economic influences are highly dependent on the form of deprivation being considered. Our analysis suggests that debates relating to the extent to which poverty and social exclusion have become individualized should take particular care to distinguish between different kinds of outcomes. Further analysis demonstrates that the SOM approach is considerably more successful than a comparable latent class analysis in identifying those exposed to subjective economic stress. (C) 2010 International Sociological Association Research Committee 28 on Social Stratification and Mobility. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability and multiple deprivation perspectives on economic exclusion in Europe: A latent class analysis

In this paper we address issues relating to vulnerability to economic exclusion and levels of economic exclusion in Europe. We do so by applying latent class models to data from the European Community Household Panel for thirteen countries. This approach allows us to distinguish between vulnerability to economic exclusion and exposure to multiple deprivation at a particular point in time. The results of our analysis confirm that in every country it is possible to distinguish between a vulnerable and a non-vulnerable class. Association between income poverty, life-style deprivation and subjective economic strain is accounted for by allocating individuals to the categories of this latent variable. The size of the vulnerable class varies across countries in line with expectations derived from welfare regime theory. Between class differentiation is weakest in social democratic regimes but otherwise the pattern of differentiation is remarkably similar. The key discriminatory factor is life-style deprivation, followed by income and economic strain. Social class and employment status are powerful predictors of latent class membership in all countries but the strength of these relationships varies across welfare regimes. Individual biography and life events are also related to vulnerability to economic exclusion. However, there is no evidence that they account for any significant part of the socio-economic structuring of vulnerability and no support is found for the hypothesis that social exclusion has come to transcend class boundaries and become a matter of individual biography. However, the extent of socio-economic structuring does vary substantially across welfare regimes. Levels of economic exclusion, in the sense of current exposure to multiple deprivation, also vary systematically by welfare regime and social class. Taking both vulnerability to economic exclusion and levels of exclusion into account suggests that care should be exercised in moving from evidence on the dynamic nature of poverty and economic exclusion to arguments relating to the superiority of selective over universal social policies.

Economic Vulnerability and the Severity of Debt Problems::An Analysis of the Irish EU-SILC 2008

In this article, using Ireland where debt issues are of particular salience, as a test case, we seek to locate over-indebtedness and the severity of debt problems in the context of the broader economic circumstances of households. In doing so, we first identify an economically vulnerable segment of households and then explore the debt experience of vulnerable and non-vulnerable households. Our analysis reveals a striking contrast between the debt experiences of less than one in five households defined as economically vulnerable and all others. Financial exclusion, relating to access to a bank account and a credit card, was found to increase debt levels. However, such effects were modest. The impact of economic vulnerability seems to be largely a consequence of its relationship to a wide
range of socio-economic attributes and circumstances. The manner in which a potential debt crisis
unfolds will be shaped by the broader socio-economic structuring of life-chances. Any attempt to
respond to such problems by concentrating on financial exclusion or household behaviour or, indeed,
triggering factors without taking the wider social structuring of economic vulnerability is likely to be
both seriously misguided and largely ineffective.

Trends in economic vulnerability in the Republic of Ireland

In this paper we evaluate trends in levels of economic vulnerability in Ireland during the period 1994-2001. We also document changes in the consequences of such vulnerability for social exclusion and in the social demographic factors with which it is associated. Over time there was a sharp decline in economic vulnerability. Furthermore, the degree of differentiation between the vulnerable and non-vulnerable classes in relation to both economic exclusion and social exclusion, more broadly conceived, remained relatively constant. Ireland is characterised by levels of socio-economic inequality that place it at the more unequal end of the European spectrum. However, the dramatic reductions in levels of vulnerability across the socio-economic spectrum demonstrate that the fruits of the economic boom have been distributed relatively widely.

Economic boom and social mobility:The Irish experience

In this paper we examine the consequences for social mobility of the recent unprecedented period of economic growth experienced in Ireland and the implications of such developments for current theories of social fluidity. Contrary to suggestions that the "Celtic Tiger" experience has been associated with deepening problem marginalization, we found evidence for a substantial upgrading of the class structure, increased levels of social mobility and increased social fluidity in relation to long-range hierarchical mobility. Such increased openness could not be explained by changes in the mediating role of education. The pattern of change suggests that both the upgrading of the class structure and the recent unprecedented tightness of the labour market have led employers to increasingly apply criteria other than education in a manner that has facilitated increased social fluidity. The Irish case provides further support for the argument for reconsidering the balance that mobility research has struck between social fluidity and absolute mobility and encouraging increased attention to the evolution of firms and jobs. It also suggests that, in circumstances where policies in advanced industrial societies have shown an increasing tendency to diverge, increased social fluidity may come about as a consequence of very different economic and social policies. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimising sorting and washing of home-grown maize to reduce fumonisin contamination under laboratory-controlled conditions

Subsistence farming communities with low socio-economic status reliant on a mono cereal maize diet are exposed to fumonisin levels that exceed the provisional maximum tolerable daily intake of 2 mu g kg(-1) body weight day(-1) recommended by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives. In the rural Centane magisterial district, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa, it is customary during food preparation to sort visibly infected maize kernels from good maize kernels and to wash the good kernels prior to cooking. However, this customary practice seems not to sufficiently reduce the fumonisin levels. This is the first study to optimise the reduction of fumonisin mycotoxins in home-grown maize based on customary methods of a rural population, under laboratory-controlled conditions. Maize obtained from subsistence farmers was analysed for the major naturally occurring fumonisins (FB1, FB2 and FB3) by fluorescence HPLC. Large variations were observed in the unsorted and the experimental maize batches attributable to the non-homogeneous distribution of fumonisin contamination in maize kernels. Optimised hand-sorting of maize kernels by removing the visibly infected/damaged kernels (fumonisins, 53.7 +/- 15.0 mg kg(-1), 2.5% by weight) reduced the mean fumonisins from 2.32 +/- 1.16 mg kg(-1) to 0.68 +/- 0.42 mg kg(-1). Hand washing of the sorted good maize kernels for a period of 10 min at 25 degrees C resulted in optimal reduction with no additional improvement for wash periods up to 15 h. The laboratory optimised sorting reduced the fumonisins by 71 +/- 18% and an additional 13 +/- 12% with the 10 min wash. Based on these results and on local practices and practicalities the protocol that would be recommended to subsistence farmers consists of the removal of the infected/damaged kernels from the maize followed by a 10 min ambient temperature water wash. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

From non-porous crystalline to amorphous microporous metal(IV) bisphosphonates

Porous layered hybrid materials have been prepared by the reaction of organo-bisphosphonate ligands, 4-(4'-phosphonophenoxy)phenylphosphonic, 4,4'-biphenylenbisphosphonic and phenylphosphonic acids, with metal(IV) cations (Zr and Sn). Crystalline Zr(IV) and Sn(IV) layered bisphosphonates were also prepared, which were non-porous. The amorphous M(IV) bisphosphonates showed variable compositions and textural properties ranging from mainly mesoporous to highly microporous solids with BET surface areas varying from 300 to 480 m(2) g(-1), micropore volumes ranging 0.10-0.20 cm(3)/g, and narrow porous size distributions for some materials. N-2 isotherms suggest that Sn(IV) derivatives show a comparatively higher micropore contribution than the Zr(IV) analogous at least for the ether-bisphosphonate hybrids. Sn(IV) bisphosphonates exhibit high microporosities without the need of using harmful DMSO as solvent. If ether-bisphosphonic acid is partially replaced by less expensive phenylphosphonic ligand, porous products are also obtained. P-31 and F-17 MAS NMR and XPS data revealed the presence of hydrogen-phosphonate groups and small (F-, Cl- and OH-) anions, which act as spacer ligands within the inorganic layers, in these hybrid materials. The complexity of the inorganic layers is higher for the Sn(IV) bisphosphonates likely due to the larger amount of small bridging anions including fluorides. It is suggested that the presence of these small inorganic ligands may be a key factor influencing both, the interaction of the inorganic layer with the bisphosphonate groups, which bridge the inorganic layers, and the generation of internal voids within a given inorganic layer. Preliminary studies of gases adsorption (H-2 and NO) have been carried out for selected Sn(IV) bisphosphonates. The H-2 adsorption capacity at 77 K and 1 bar was low, 0.26 wt%, but the NO adsorption capacity at similar to 1 bar and 298 K was relatively high, 4.2 wt%. Moreover, the hysteresis in the NO isotherms is indicative of partial strong irreversible adsorption of NO. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Taking as Giving, Appropriation as Access: Transfers of Land Development Rights and China’s Recent Experiments

Economic development at both the domestic and global levels is associated with increasing tensions which are inextricably linked to the meaning and allocation of property rights, which has a great impact on appropriation of resources and may lead to different paths of development. “Taking”-- the appropriation of private land for public needs -- is a typical example that exhibits those tensions, posing a challenge to the conventional conception of property as individualistic and exclusive rights of possession, use, and disposition and to the associated neoliberal model of development. Should the individual landowner be left to bear the cost of a regulatory intervention which endures to the wider benefit of the whole community? How to mitigate the tensions between private ownership and public regulation? If we take the liberal concept of property, then private property seems to be in constant conflict with public interests and wider social concerns. Meanwhile, community, situating between the state and the individuals, and community’s relationship to development rights, have not provoked enough discussion. The paper explores the different ways land development rights might be seen both in Western, essentially common law systems, and in China, especially now and in view of two case studies. An empirical example in Wugang, China reveals the importance of integrating the “community lens” proposed by Roger Cotterrell into studies of the transfer of land development rights. Reading through the community lens, taking could be giving and appropriation could also be access. This approach provides a new perspective to re-evaluate the relationship between legal appropriation and development.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening for open angle glaucoma:A systematic review and economic evaluation

Objectives: To assess whether open angle glaucoma (OAG) screening meets the UK National Screening Committee criteria, to compare screening strategies with case finding, to estimate test parameters, to model estimates of cost and cost-effectiveness, and to identify areas for future research. Data sources: Major electronic databases were searched up to December 2005. Review methods: Screening strategies were developed by wide consultation. Markov submodels were developed to represent screening strategies. Parameter estimates were determined by systematic reviews of epidemiology, economic evaluations of screening, and effectiveness (test accuracy, screening and treatment). Tailored highly sensitive electronic searches were undertaken. Results: Most potential screening tests reviewed had an estimated specificity of 85% or higher. No test was clearly most accurate, with only a few, heterogeneous studies for each test. No randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of screening were identified. Based on two treatment RCTs, early treatment reduces the risk of progression. Extrapolating from this, and assuming accelerated progression with advancing disease severity, without treatment the mean time to blindness in at least one eye was approximately 23 years, compared to 35 years with treatment. Prevalence would have to be about 3-4% in 40 year olds with a screening interval of 10 years to approach cost-effectiveness. It is predicted that screening might be cost-effective in a 50-year-old cohort at a prevalence of 4% with a 10-year screening interval. General population screening at any age, thus, appears not to be cost-effective. Selective screening of groups with higher prevalence (family history, black ethnicity) might be worthwhile, although this would only cover 6% of the population. Extension to include other at-risk cohorts (e.g. myopia and diabetes) would include 37% of the general population, but the prevalence is then too low for screening to be considered cost-effective. Screening using a test with initial automated classification followed by assessment by a specialised optometrist, for test positives, was more cost-effective than initial specialised optometric assessment. The cost-effectiveness of the screening programme was highly sensitive to the perspective on costs (NHS or societal). In the base-case model, the NHS costs of visual impairment were estimated as £669. If annual societal costs were £8800, then screening might be considered cost-effective for a 40-year-old cohort with 1% OAG prevalence assuming a willingness to pay of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Of lesser importance were changes to estimates of attendance for sight tests, incidence of OAG, rate of progression and utility values for each stage of OAG severity. Cost-effectiveness was not particularly sensitive to the accuracy of screening tests within the ranges observed. However, a highly specific test is required to reduce large numbers of false-positive referrals. The findings that population screening is unlikely to be cost-effective are based on an economic model whose parameter estimates have considerable uncertainty, in particular, if rate of progression and/or costs of visual impairment are higher than estimated then screening could be cost-effective. Conclusions: While population screening is not cost-effective, the targeted screening of high-risk groups may be. Procedures for identifying those at risk, for quality assuring the programme, as well as adequate service provision for those screened positive would all be needed. Glaucoma detection can be improved by increasing attendance for eye examination, and improving the performance of current testing by either refining practice or adding in a technology-based first assessment, the latter being the more cost-effective option. This has implications for any future organisational changes in community eye-care services. Further research should aim to develop and provide quality data to populate the economic model, by conducting a feasibility study of interventions to improve detection, by obtaining further data on costs of blindness, risk of progression and health outcomes, and by conducting an RCT of interventions to improve the uptake of glaucoma testing. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2007. All rights reserved.

The effect of socio-economic deprivation on severity of glaucoma at presentation

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of socio-economic factors on severity of glaucoma at presentation

METHODS: All newly diagnosed glaucoma patients at the University Hospitals-NHS, Aberdeen and South Glasgow University Hospitals-NHS, in 2006, were included. Glaucoma was severe at presentation if there was a repeatable visual-field loss with a mean deviation index greater than 12 dB in the Humphreys visual fields test or an absolute paracentral scotoma within the central 5 degrees of the visual fields. Home address was used to determine the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) rank. The SIMD rank, demographics and severity of glaucoma at presentation were investigated using general linear modelling.

RESULTS: There were 48 patients with severe glaucoma and 74 patients with non-severe glaucoma. In four, the severity could not be determined. Severity of glaucoma at presentation was significantly associated with SIMD rank, being most severe in patients from areas with the lowest ranks (p = 0.026). Age was a significant factor (p = 0.024), with severe glaucoma being more common in elderly patients.

CONCLUSIONS: Age and socio-economic deprivation were associated with severity of glaucoma at presentation, with patients from areas of higher socio-economic deprivation presenting with more advanced glaucoma.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and collembola non-additively increase soil aggregation

Soil aggregation is a principal ecosystem process mediated by soil biota. Collembola and arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi are important groups in the soil, and can interact in various ways. Few studies have examined collembola effects on soil aggregation, while many have quantified AM effects. Here, we asked if collembola have any effect on soil aggregation, and if they alter AM fungi-mediated effects on soil aggregation.

We carried out a factorial greenhouse study, manipulating the presence of both collembola and AM fungi, using two different plant species, Sorghum vulgare and Daucus carota. We measured root length and biomass, AMF (and non-AMF) soil hyphal length, root colonization, and collembolan populations, and quantified water stable soil aggregates (WSA) in four size classes.

Soil exposed to growth of AMF hyphae and collembola individually had higher WSA than control treatments. Moreover, the interaction effects between AMF and collembola were significant, with nonadditive increases in the combined application compared to the single treatments.

Our findings show that collembola can play a crucial role in maintaining ecological sustainability through promoting soil aggregation, and point to the importance of considering organism interactions in understanding formation of soil structure. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GSP+ and Human Rights::Is the EU's Approach the Right One?

Among the purposes of the EU’s GSP+ programme is to link human rights to trade incentives, with the idea of using such incentives to promote developing countries’ adoption of the values found in core human rights treaties. With the re-renewal of the GSP (and GSP+) programmes to take effect in January 2014, it is fruitful to examine their efficacy and consistency with WTO law. In this article, I argue the GSP+ programme is not only ineffective in obtaining an improvement in human rights conditions for the vast majority of the world’s population, but it is also incompatible with WTO law. A stick-based regime where human rights abuses are linked to trade sanctions is a better way to proceed. After outlining the GSP+ system, and its linkage of human rights and trade, I analyse its efficacy and WTO consistency. Having shown that it is ineffective and contrary to WTO law, I argue that trade sanctions based on a PPM distinction and/or GATT XX(a) may be the appropriate means of linking trade and human rights. The article ends with some concluding remarks on the need for the careful design of such a system.