Towards optimal clinical and epidemiological registration of haematological malignancies: Guidelines for recording progressions, transformations and multiple diagnoses

Haematological malignancies (HM) represent over 6% of the total cancer incidence in Europe and affect all ages, ranging between 45% of all cancers in children and 7% in the elderly. Thirty per cent of childhood cancer deaths are due to HM, 8% in the elderly. Their registration presents specific challenges, mainly because HM may transform or progress in the course of the disease into other types of HM. In the context of cancer registration decisions have to be made about classifying subsequent notifications on the same patient as the same tumour (progression), a transformation or a new tumour registration. Allocation of incidence date and method of diagnosis must also be standardised. We developed European Network of Cancer Registries (ENCR) recommendations providing specific advice for cancer registries to use haematology and molecular laboratories as data sources, conserve the original date of incidence in case of change of diagnosis, make provision for recording both the original as well as transformed tumour and to apply precise rules for recording and counting multiple diagnoses. A reference table advising on codes which reflect a potential transformation or a new tumour is included. This work will help to improve comparability of data produced by population-based cancer registries, which are indispensable for aetiological research, health care planning and clinical research, an increasing important area with the application of targeted therapies.

Derivation of scientific software from mathematical specifications

Often the modification and enhancement of large scientific software systems are severely hampered because many components of the system are written in an implementation dependent fashion, they are inadequately documented, and their functionalities are not precisely known. In this paper we consider how mathematics may be employed to alleviate some of these problems. In particular, we illustrate how the formal specification notation VDM-SL is being used to specify precisely abstract data types for use in the development of scientific software.

Mathematical anxiety is linked to reduced cognitive reflection: A potential road from discomfort in the mathematics classroom to susceptibility to biases

Background
When asked to solve mathematical problems, some people experience anxiety and threat, which can lead to impaired mathematical performance (Curr Dir Psychol Sci 11:181–185, 2002). The present studies investigated the link between mathematical anxiety and performance on the cognitive reflection test (CRT; J Econ Perspect 19:25–42, 2005). The CRT is a measure of a person’s ability to resist intuitive response tendencies, and it correlates strongly with important real-life outcomes, such as time preferences, risk-taking, and rational thinking.

Methods
In Experiments 1 and 2 the relationships between maths anxiety, mathematical knowledge/mathematical achievement, test anxiety and cognitive reflection were analysed using mediation analyses. Experiment 3 included a manipulation of working memory load. The effects of anxiety and working memory load were analysed using ANOVAs.

Results
Our experiments with university students (Experiments 1 and 3) and secondary school students (Experiment 2) demonstrated that mathematical anxiety was a significant predictor of cognitive reflection, even after controlling for the effects of general mathematical knowledge (in Experiment 1), school mathematical achievement (in Experiment 2) and test anxiety (in Experiments 1–3). Furthermore, Experiment 3 showed that mathematical anxiety and burdening working memory resources with a secondary task had similar effects on cognitive reflection.

Conclusions
Given earlier findings that showed a close link between cognitive reflection, unbiased decisions and rationality, our results suggest that mathematical anxiety might be negatively related to individuals’ ability to make advantageous choices and good decisions.

Urban planning after the Black Death: townscape transformations in later-medieval England (1350-1530)

This article offers a reconsideration of planning and development in
English towns and cities after the Black Death (1348). Conventional historical
accounts have stressed the occurrence of urban ‘decay’ in the later fourteenth and fifteenth centuries. Here, instead, a case is made that after 1350 urban planning continued to influence towns and cities in England through the transformation of their townscapes. Using the conceptual approaches of urban morphologists in particular, the article demonstrates that not only did the foundation of new towns and creation of new suburbs characterize the period 1350–1530, but so too did the redevelopment of existing urban landscapes through civic improvements and public works. These reveal evidence for the particular ‘agents of change’ involved in the planning and development process, such as surveyors, officials, patrons and architects, and also the role played by maps and drawn surveys. In this reappraisal, England’s urban experiences can be seen to have been closely connected with those instances of urban planning after the Black Death occurring elsewhere in contemporary continental Europe.

Reducible Diffusions with Time-Varying Transformations with Application to Short-Term Interest Rates

Reducible diffusions (RDs) are nonlinear transformations of analytically solvable Basic Diffusions (BDs). Hence, by construction RDs are analytically tractable and flexible diffusion processes. Existing literature on RDs has mostly focused on time-homogeneous transformations, which to a significant extent fail to explore the full potential of RDs from both theoretical and practical points of view. In this paper, we propose flexible and economically justifiable time variations to the transformations of RDs. Concentrating on the Constant Elasticity Variance (CEV) RDs, we consider nonlinear dynamics for our time-varying transformations with both deterministic and stochastic designs. Such time variations can greatly enhance the flexibility of RDs while maintaining sufficient tractability of the resulting models. In the meantime, our modeling approach enjoys the benefits of classical inferential techniques such as the Maximum Likelihood (ML). Our application to the UK and the US short-term interest rates suggests that from an empirical point of view time-varying transformations are highly relevant and statistically significant. We expect that the proposed models can describe more truthfully the dynamic time-varying behavior of economic and financial variables and potentially improve out-of-sample forecasts significantly.

Mineralogical Characteristics and Transformations during Long-Term Operation of a Zerovalent Iron Reactive Barrier

Design and operation of Fe⁰ permeable reactive barriers (PRBs) can be improved by understanding the long-term mineralogical transformations that occur within PRBs. Changes in mineral precipitates, cementation, and corrosion of Fe⁰ filings within an in situ pilot-scale PRB were examined after the first 30 months of operation and compared with results of a previous study of the PRB conducted 15 months earlier using X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy employing energy dispersive X-ray and backscatter electron analyses. Iron (oxy)hydroxides, aragonite, and maghemite and/or magnetite occurred throughout the cores collected 30 mo after installation. Goethite, lepidocrocite, mackinawite, aragonite, calcite, and siderite were associated with oxidized and cemented areas, while green rusts were detected in more reduced zones. Basic differences from our last detailed investigation include (i) mackinawite crystallized from amorphous FeS, (ii) aragonite transformed into calcite, (iii) akaganeite transformed to goethite and lepidocrocite, (iv) iron (oxy)hydroxides and calcium and iron carbonate minerals increased, (v) cementation was greater in the more recent study, and (vi) oxidation, corrosion, and disintegration of Fe⁰ filings were greater, especially in cemented areas, in the more recent study. If the degree of corrosion and cementation that was observed from 15 to 30 mo after installation continues, certain portions of the PRB (i.e., up-gradient entrance of the ground water to the Fe⁰ section of the PRB) may last less than five more years, thus reducing the effectiveness of the PRB to mitigate contaminants.

The Equiprobability Bias from a Mathematical and Psychological Perspective

The equiprobability bias (EB) is a tendency to believe that every process in which randomness is involved corresponds to a fair distribution, with equal probabilities for any possible outcome. The EB is known to affect both children and adults, and to increase with probability education. Because it results in probability errors resistant to pedagogical interventions, it has been described as a deep misconception about randomness: the erroneous belief that randomness implies uniformity. In the present paper, we show that the EB is actually not the result of a conceptual error about the definition of randomness. On the contrary, the mathematical theory of randomness does imply uniformity. However, the EB is still a bias, because people tend to assume uniformity even in the case of events that are not random. The pervasiveness of the EB reveals a paradox: The combination of random processes is not necessarily random. The link between the EB and this paradox is discussed, and suggestions are made regarding educational design to overcome difficulties encountered by students as a consequence of the EB.

Mathematical modelling of quantum yield enhancements of methyl orange photooxidation in aqueous TiO2 suspensions under controlled periodic UV LED illumination

Quantum yields of the photocatalytic degradation of methyl orange under controlled periodic illumination (CPI) have been modelled using existing models. A modified Langmuir-Hinshelwood (L-H) rate equation was used to predict the degradation reaction rates of methyl orange at various duty cycles and a simple photocatalytic model was applied in modelling quantum yield enhancement of the photocatalytic process due to the CPI effect. A good agreement between the modelled and experimental data was observed for quantum yield modelling. The modified L-H model, however, did not accurately predict the photocatalytic decomposition of the dye under periodic illumination.

Bdellovibrio predation in the presence of decoys:Three-way bacterial interactions revealed by mathematical and experimental analyses

Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus is a small, gram-negative, motile bacterium that preys upon other gram-negative bacteria, including several known human pathogens. Its predation efficiency is usually studied in pure cultures containing solely B. bacteriovorus and a suitable prey. However, in natural environments, as well as in any possible biomedical uses as an antimicrobial, Bdellovibrio is predatory in the presence of diverse decoys, including live nonsusceptible bacteria, eukaryotic cells, and cell debris. Here we gathered and mathematically modeled data from three-member cultures containing predator, prey, and nonsusceptible bacterial decoys. Specifically, we studied the rate of predation of planktonic late-log-phase Escherichia coli S17-1 prey by B. bacteriovorus HD100, both in the presence and in the absence of Bacillus subtilis nonsporulating strain 671, which acted as a live bacterial decoy. Interestingly, we found that although addition of the live Bacillus decoy did decrease the rate of Bdellovibrio predation in liquid cultures, this addition also resulted in a partially compensatory enhancement of the availability of prey for predation. This effect resulted in a higher final yield of Bdellovibrio than would be predicted for a simple inert decoy. Our mathematical model accounts for both negative and positive effects of predator-prey-decoy interactions in the closed batch environment. In addition, it informs considerations for predator dosing in any future therapeutic applications and sheds some light on considerations for modeling the massively complex interactions of real mixed bacterial populations in nature.