Integrating textual analysis and evidential reasoning for decision making in Engineering design

Decision making is an important element throughout the life-cycle of large-scale projects. Decisions are critical as they have a direct impact upon the success/outcome of a project and are affected by many factors including the certainty and precision of information. In this paper we present an evidential reasoning framework which applies Dempster-Shafer Theory and its variant Dezert-Smarandache Theory to aid decision makers in making decisions where the knowledge available may be imprecise, conflicting and uncertain. This conceptual framework is novel as natural language based information extraction techniques are utilized in the extraction and estimation of beliefs from diverse textual information sources, rather than assuming these estimations as already given. Furthermore we describe an algorithm to define a set of maximal consistent subsets before fusion occurs in the reasoning framework. This is important as inconsistencies between subsets may produce results which are incorrect/adverse in the decision making process. The proposed framework can be applied to problems involving material selection and a Use Case based in the Engineering domain is presented to illustrate the approach. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Arabidopsis microtubule-associated protein AtMAP65-1: Molecular analysis of its microtubule bundling activity

The 65-kD microtubule-associated protein (MAP65) family is a family of plant microtubule-bundling proteins. Functional analysis is complicated by the heterogeneity within this family: there are nine MAP65 genes in Arabidopsis thaliana, AtMAP65-1 to AtMAP65-9. To begin the functional dissection of the Arabidopsis MAP65 proteins, we have concentrated on a single isoform, AtMAP65-1, and examined its effect on the dynamics of mammalian microtubules. We show that recombinant AtMAP65-1 does not promote polymerization and does not stabilize microtubules against cold-induced microtubule depolymerization. However, we show that it does induce microtubule bundling in vitro and that this protein forms 25-nm cross-bridges between microtubules. We further demonstrate that the microtubule binding region resides in the C-terminal half of the protein and that Ala409 and Ala420 are essential for the interaction with microtubules. Ala420 is a conserved amino acid in the AtMAP65 family and is mutated to Val in the cytokinesis-defective mutant pleiade-4 of the AtMAP65-3/PLEIADE gene. We show that AtMAP65-1 can form dimers and that a region in the N terminus is responsible for this activity. Neither the microtubule binding region nor the dimerization region alone could induce microtubule bundling, strongly suggesting that dimerization is necessary to produce the microtubule cross-bridges. In vivo, AtMAP65-1 is ubiquitously expressed both during the cell cycle and in all plant organs and tissues with the exception of anthers and petals. Moreover, using an antiserum raised to AtMAP65-1, we show that AtMAP65-1 binds microtubules at specific stages of the cell cycle.

Theoretical and FE analysis of ultrasonic welding of aluminum alloy 3003

Ultrasonic welding (consolidation) process is a rapid manufacturing process that is used to join thin layers of metal at low temperature and low energy consumption. Experimental results have shown that ultrasonic welding is a combination of both surface (friction) and volume (plasticity) softening effects. In the presented work, an attempt has been made to simulate the ultrasonic welding of metals by taking into account these effects (surface and volume). A phenomenological material model has been proposed, which incorporates these two effects (i.e., surface and volume). The thermal softening due to friction and ultrasonic (acoustic) softening has been included in the proposed material model. For surface effects, a friction law with variable coefficient of friction that is dependent on contact pressure, slip, temperature, and number of cycles has been derived from experimental friction tests. The results of the thermomechanical analyses of ultrasonic welding of aluminum alloy have been presented. The goal of this work is to study the effects of ultrasonic welding process parameters, such as applied load, amplitude of ultrasonic oscillation, and velocity of welding sonotrode on the friction work at the weld interface. The change in the friction work at the weld interface has been explained on the basis of softening (thermal and acoustic) of the specimen during the ultrasonic welding process. In the end, a comparison between experimental and simulated results has been presented, showing a good agreement. Copyright © 2009 by ASME.

Dietary Carbohydrate Intake, Glycemic Index, and Glycemic Load and Endometrial Cancer Risk: A Prospective Cohort Study

Endometrial cancer risk has been directly associated with glycemic load. However, few studies have investigated this link, and the etiological role of specific dietary carbohydrate components remains unclear. Our aim was to investigate associations of carbohydrate intake, glycemic index, and glycemic load with endometrial cancer risk in the US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Recruitment took place in 1993-2001. Over a median of 9.0 years of follow-up through 2009, 386 women developed endometrial cancer among 36,115 considered in the analysis. Dietary intakes were assessed using a 124-item diet history questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Significant inverse associations were detected between endometrial cancer risk and total available carbohydrate intake (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49, 0.90), total sugars intake (HR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.52, 0.96), and glycemic load (HR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.84) when women in the highest quartile of intake were compared with those in the lowest. These inverse associations were strongest among overweight and obese women. No associations with endometrial cancer risk were observed for glycemic index or dietary fiber. Our findings contrast with previous evidence and suggest that high carbohydrate intakes and glycemic loads are protective against endometrial cancer development. Further clarification of these associations is warranted.

Numerical modelling of laboratory tests for TBM cutter indentation process analysis

Considering that TBMs are nowadays used for long Trans-Alpine tunnels, the
understanding of rock breaking and chipping due to TBM cutter disks mechanism, for deep tunnelling operations, becomes very interesting. In this paper, the results from carried out laboratory tests that simulate the disk cutter action at the rock tunnel face by means of an indentation tool, acting on a rock
specimen with proper size, and the related three-dimensional and two-dimensional numerical modelling are proposed. The developed numerical models simulate the different test conditions (applied load, boundary conditions) allowing the analysis of the stresses distributions along possible breaking planes.
The influence of a confinement-free area on one side of the specimen, simulating the formation of a groove near the tool, is pointed out.
The obtained results from numerical modelling put in evidence a satisfactory agreement with the experimental observations.

Managing Equivalent Representations of Design and Analysis Models

There is a requirement for better integration between design and analysis tools, which is difficult due to their different objectives, separate data representations and workflows. Currently, substantial effort is required to produce a suitable analysis model from design geometry. Robust links are required between these different representations to enable analysis attributes to be transferred between different design and analysis packages for models at various levels of fidelity.

This paper describes a novel approach for integrating design and analysis models by identifying and managing the relationships between the different representations. Three key technologies, Cellular Modeling, Virtual Topology and Equivalencing, have been employed to achieve effective simulation model management. These technologies and their implementation are discussed in detail. Prototype automated tools are introduced demonstrating how multiple simulation models can be linked and maintained to facilitate seamless integration throughout the design cycle.

Obesity and kidney disease in type 1 and 2 diabetes: an analysis of the National Diabetes Audit

Background: Obesity is increasingly prevalent in many countries. Obesity is a major risk factor for the development of type 2 diabetes but its relationship with diabetic kidney disease (DKD) remains unclear. Some studies have suggested that the metabolic syndrome (including obesity) may be associated with DKD in type 1 diabetes. Aim: To investigate the association between obesity and DKD. Design: Retrospective cross-sectional study. Methods: National Diabetes Audit data were available for the 2007–08 cycle. Type 1 and 2 diabetes patients with both a valid serum creatinine and urinary albumin:creatinine ratio were included. DKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.73 m2, albuminuria or both. Logistic regression was used to analyse associations of obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2) and other variables including year of birth, year of diagnosis, ethnicity and stage of kidney disease. Results: A total of 58 791 type 1 and 733 769 type 2 diabetes patients were included in the analysis. After adjustment, when compared with type 1 diabetes patients with normal renal function those with DKD were up to twice as likely to be obese. Type 2 DKD patients were also more likely to be obese. For example, type 2 diabetes patients with an eGFR <15 ml/min/1.73 m2 and normoalbuminuria, microalbuminuria or macroalbuminuria were all more likely to be obese; odds ratios (95% CI) 1.65 (1.3–2.1), 1.56 (1.28–1.92) and 1.27 (1.05–1.54), respectively. Conclusions: This study has highlighted a strong association between obesity and kidney disease in type 1 diabetes and confirmed their association in type 2 diabetes.

Micro-mechanical analysis of bonding failure in a particle-filled composite

Composites with a weak interface between the filler and matrix which are susceptible to interfacial crack formation are studied. A finite-element model is developed to predict the stres/strain behavior of particulate composites with an interfacial crack. This condition can be distinguished as a partially bonded inclusion. Another case arises when there is no bonding between the inclusion and the matrix. In this latter case the slip boundary condition is imposed on the section of the interface which remains closed. The states of stress and displacement fields are obtained for both cases. The location of any further deformation through crazing or shear band formation is identified as the crack tip. A completely unbonded inclusion with partial slip at a section of the interface reduces the concentration of the stress at the crack tip. Whereas this might lead to slightly higher strength, it decreases the load-transfer efficiency and stiffness of this type of composite. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finite element analysis of interfacial friction and slip in composites with fully unbonded filler

A finite element model is developed to predict the stress-strain behaviour of particulate composites with fully unbonded filler particles. This condition can occur because of the lack of adhesion property of the filler surface. Whilst part of the filler particle is separated from the matrix, another section of filler keeps in contact with the matrix because of the lateral compressive displacement of the matrix. The slip boundary condition is imposed on the section of the interface that remains closed. The states of stress and displacement fields are obtained. The location of any further deformation through crazing or shear band formation is identified. A completely unbonded inclusion with partial slip at a section of the interface reduces the concentration of the stress at the interface significantly. Whereas this might lead to slightly higher strength, it decreases the load transfer efficiency and stiffness of this type of composite.

3D coupled thermomechanical finite element analysis of ultrasonic consolidation

A 3-D coupled temperature-displacement finite element analysis is performed to study an ultrasonic consolidation process. Results show that ultrasonic wave is effective in causing deformation in aluminum foils. Ultrasonic vibration leads to an oscillating stress field. The oscillation of stress in substrate lags behind the ultrasonic vibration by about 0.1 cycle of ultrasonic wave. The upper foil, which is in contact with the substrate, has the most severe deformation. The substrate undergoes little deformation. Apparent material softening by ultrasonic wave, which is of great concern for decades, is successfully simulated. The higher the friction coefficient, the more obvious the apparent material softening effect.

Wear analysis and prediction of the life of a riveting die used in the automotive industry

Knowledge on the life span of the riveting dies used in the automotive industry is sparse. It is often the case that only when faulty products are produced are workers aware that their tool needs to be changed. This is of course costly both in terms of time and money. Responding to this challenge, this paper proposes a methodology which integrates wear and stress analysis to quantify the life of a riveting die. Experiments are carried out to measure the applied load required to split a rivet. The obtained results (i.e. force curves) are used to validate the wear mechanisms of the die observed using scanning electron microscopy. Sliding, impact, and adhesive wears are observed on the riveting die after a certain number of riveting cycles. The stress distribution on the die during riveting is simulated using a finite element (FE) approach. In order to confirm the accuracy of the FE model, the experimental force results are compared with the ones produced from FE simulation. The maximum and minimum von Mises' stresses generated from the FE model are input into a Goodman diagram and an S-N curve to compute the life of the riveting die. It is found that the riveting die is predicted to run for 4 980 000 cycles before failure.

Brunetta’s reform swan song? An assessment of its success in local governments through the analysis of its tools

The work aims at assessing the success of Brunetta’s reform (Legislative Decree n. 150/2009), a far-reaching reform that aimed at improving both organizational and individual performance in Italian public administration through a specific planning and control process (the performance cycle) and most of all through two new tools, Performance Plan and Performance Report. The success of the reform is assessed, with particular emphasis on local governments, analyzing the diffusion and use of these new tools. The study has been conducted using a deductive-inductive methodology. Thus, after a study of managerial reforms in Italy and performance measurement literature, a possible model (PerformEL Model) local governments could follow to draw up Performance Plan and Report as effective tools for performance measurement has been designed (deductive phase). Performance Plans 2011-2013 and Performance Report 2011 downloaded from Italian big sized municipalities’ websites have been analyzed in the light of PerformEL Model, to assess the diffusion of the documents and their coherence with legal requirements and suggestions from literature (inductive phase). Data arising from the empirical analysis have been studied to evaluate the diffusion and the effectiveness of big sized municipalities’ Performance Plans and Reports as performance measurement tools and thus to assess the success of the reform (feedback phase). The study shows a scarce diffusion of the documents; they are mostly drew up because of their compulsoriness or to gain legitimization. The results testify the failure of Brunetta’s reform, at least with regard to local governments.

The Influence of Structural Modeshape Variability on Limit Cycle Oscillation Behaviour

Modal analysis is a popular approach used in structural dynamic and aeroelastic problems due to its efficiency. The response of a structure is compo
sed of the sum of orthogonal eigenvectors or modeshapes and corresponding modal frequencies. This paper investigates the importance of modeshapes on the aeroelastic response of the Goland wing subject to structural uncertainties. The wing undergoes limit cycle oscillations (LCO) as a result of the inclusion of polynomial stiffness nonlinearities. The LCO computations are performed using a Harmonic Balance approach for speed, the modal properties of the system are extracted from MSC NASTRAN. Variability in both the wing’s structure and the store centre of gravity location is investigated in two cases:- supercritical and subcritical type LCOs. Results show that the LCO behaviour is only sensitive to change in modeshapes when the nature of the modes are changing significantly.

Mutational Analysis of the Rhodopsin Gene in Sector Retinitis Pigmentosa

Background: To determine the role of rhodopsin (RHO) gene mutations in patients with sector retinitis pigmentosa (RP) from Northern Ireland.

Design: A case series of sector RP in a tertiary ocular genetics clinic.

Participants: Four patients with sector RP were recruited from the Royal Victoria Hospital (Belfast, Northern Ireland) and Altnagelvin Hospital (Londonderry, Northern Ireland) following informed consent.

Methods: The diagnosis of sector RP was based on clinical examination, International Society for Clinical Electrophysiology of Vision (ISCEV) standard electrophysiology, and visual field analysis. DNA was extracted from peripheral blood leucocytes and the coding regions and adjacent flanking intronic sequences of the RHO gene were polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplified and cycle sequenced.

Main Outcome Measure: Rhodopsin mutational status.

Results: A heterozygous missense mutation in RHO (c.173C > T) resulting in a non-conservative substitution of threonine to methionine (p. Thr58Met) was identified in one patient and was absent from 360 control individuals. This non-conservative substitution (p.Thr58Met) replaces a highly evolutionary conserved polar hydrophilic threonine residue with a non-polar hydrophobic methionine residue at position 58 near the cytoplasmic border of helix A of RHO.

Conclusions: The study identified a RHO gene mutation (p.Thr58Met) not previously reported in RP in a patient with sector RP. These findings outline the phenotypic variability associated with RHO mutations. It has been proposed that the regional effects of RHO mutations are likely to result from interplay between mutant alleles and other genetic, epigenetic and environmental factors.