Application of Evidence Theory and Discounting Techniques to Aerospace Design

Critical decisions are made by decision-makers throughout
the life-cycle of large-scale projects. These decisions are crucial as they
have a direct impact upon the outcome and the success of projects. To aid
decision-makers in the decision making process we present an evidential
reasoning framework. This approach utilizes the Dezert-Smarandache
theory to fuse heterogeneous evidence sources that suffer from levels
of uncertainty, imprecision and conflicts to provide beliefs for decision
options. To analyze the impact of source reliability and priority upon
the decision making process, a reliability discounting technique and a
priority discounting technique, are applied. A maximal consistent subset
is constructed to aid in dening where discounting should be applied.
Application of the evidential reasoning framework is illustrated using a
case study based in the Aerospace domain.

Net energy analysis of a solar combi system with Seasonal Thermal Energy Store

EU targets require nearly zero energy buildings (NZEB) by 2020. However few monitored examples exist of how NZEB has been achieved in practise in individual residential buildings. This paper provides an example of how a low-energy building (built in 2006), has achieved nearly zero energy heating through the addition of a solar domestic hot water and space heating system (“combi system”) with a Seasonal Thermal Energy Store (STES). The paper also presents a cumulative life cycle energy and cumulative life cycle carbon analysis for the installation based on the recorded DHW and space heating demand in addition to energy payback periods and net energy ratios. In addition, the carbon and energy analysis is carried out for four other heating system scenarios including hybrid solar thermal/PV systems in order to obtain the optimal system from a carbon efficiency perspective.

A well-to-wheel analysis of electric vehicles in the all-island Single Electricity Market

The European Union has set a target for 10% renewable energy in transport by 2020 to be met using biofuels and electric vehicles. In the case of biofuels, the biofuel must achieve greenhouse gas savings of 35% relative to the fossil fuel replaced. For biofuels, greenhouse gas savings can be calculated using life cycle analysis or the European Union default values. In contrast, all electricity used in transport is considered to be the same, regardless of the source or the type of electric vehicle. However, the choice of the electric vehicle and electricity source will have a major impact on the greenhouse gas saving. In this paper the initial findings of a well-to-wheel analysis of electric vehicle deployment in Northern Ireland are presented. The key finding indicates that electric vehicles require least amount of energy per mile on a well-to-wheel basis, consume the fewest resources, even accommodating inefficient fuel production, in comparison to standard internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles.

Astrochemistry

In the last 40 years a wide range of molecules, including neutrals, cations and anions, containing up to 13 atoms—in addition to detections of C₆₀ and C₇₀ — have been found in the harsh environment of the interstellar medium. The exquisite sensitivity and very high spectral and, more recently, spatial resolution, of modern telescopes has enabled the physics of star formation to be probed through rotational line emission. In this article, I review the basic properties of interstellar clouds and the processes that initiate the chemistry and generate chemical complexity, particularly in regions of star and planet formation. Our understanding of astrochemistry has evolved over the years. Before 1990, the general consensus was that molecules were formed in binary, gas-phase, or volume, reactions, most importantly ion-neutral reactions despite the very low ionization in clouds. Since then, observations have indicated unambiguously that there is also a contribution from surface processes, particularly on the icy mantles that form around refractory grain cores in cold, dense gas. The balance between these two processes depends on particular physical conditions and can vary during the life cycle of a particular volume of interstellar cloud.The complex chemistry that occurs in space is driven mostly through interaction of thegas with cosmic ray protons, a source of ionization that enables a rich ion-neutral chemistry. In addition, I show that the interaction between the gas and the dust in cold, dense regionsalso leads to additional chemical complexity through reactions that take place in ices at onlya few tens of degrees above absolute zero. Although densities are low compared to those in terrestrial environments, the extremely long life times of interstellar clouds and their enormous sizes, enable complex molecules to be synthesised and detected. I show that in some instances, particularly in reactions involving deuterium, the rotational populations of reactants, together with spin-selection rules, can determine the detailed abundances. Although the review is mainly focused on regions associated with star formation, I also consider chemistry in other interesting astronomical regions — in the early Universe and in the envelopes formed by mass loss during the final stages of stellar evolution.

A First Report of Anguina pacificae in Ireland

Anguina pacificae is a significant pest of Poa annua golf course greens in northern California. This study presents the first confirmed case of an A. pacificae infestation outside of North America, where the nematode's distribution is further restricted to a relatively limited coastal region. Species confirmation was made by morphometric and molecular methods and comparisons to closely related species including the European species, Anguina agropyri. The A. pacificae population detected on an Irish golf course was monitored over a 2-yr period and the life cycle compared with Californian population dynamics. A. pacificae was assessed for the potential risk of spreading to the local agricultural sector, in addition, the biosecurity risks from A. pacificae and plant parasitic nematodes in general were reviewed for northwest Europe.

Larval development of the pedunculate barnacles Octolasmis angulata Aurivillius 1894 and Octolasmis cor Aurivillius 1892 (Cirripedia: Thoracica: Poecilasmatidae) from the gills of the mud crab, Scylla tranquebarica Fabricius, 1798

Detailed studies of larval development of Octolasmis angulata and Octolasmis cor are pivotal in understanding the larval morphological evolution as well as enhancing the functional ecology. Six planktotrophic naupliar stages and one non-feeding cyprid stage are documented in details for the first time for the two species of Octolasmis. Morphologically, the larvae of O. angulata and O. cor are similar in body size, setation patterns on the naupliar appendages, labrum, dorsal setae-pores, frontal horns, cyprid carapace, fronto-lateral gland pores, and lattice organs. Numbers of peculiarities were observed on the gnathobases of the antennae and mandible throughout the naupliar life-cycle. The setation pattern on the naupliar appendages are classified based on the segmentation on the naupliar appendages. The nauplius VI of both species undergoes a conspicuous change before metamorphosis into cyprid stage. The cyprid structures begin to form and modify beneath the naupliar body towards the end of stage VI. This study emphasises the importance of the pedunculate barnacle larval developmental studies not only to comprehend the larval morphological evolution but also to fill in the gaps in understanding the modification of the naupliar structures to adapt into the cyprid life-style.

Understanding aerospace composite components' supply chain carbon emissions

This paper examines a large structural component and its supply chain. The component is representative of that used in the production of civil transport aircraft and is manufactured from carbon fibre epoxy resin prepreg, using traditional hand layup and autoclave cure. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to predict the component’s production carbon emissions. The results determine the distribution of carbon emissions within the supply chain, identifying the dominant production processes as carbon fibre manufacture and composite part manufacture. The elevated temperature processes of material and part creation, and the associated electricity usage, have a significant impact on the overall production emissions footprint. The paper also demonstrates the calculation of emissions footprint sensitivity to the geographic location and associated energy sources of the supply chain. The results verify that the proposed methodology is capable of quantitatively linking component and supply chain specifics to manufacturing processes and thus identifying the design drivers for carbon emissions in the manufacturing life of the component.

A Conventional Internal Combustion Engine Versus a Range Extended Electric Vehicle Under the Current Regulatory Regime in the United Kingdom

Transport accounts for 22% of greenhouse gas emissions in the United Kingdom and cars are expected tomore than double by 2050. Car manufacturers are continually aiming for a substantially reduced carbonfootprint through improved fuel efficiency and better powertrain performance due to the strict EuropeanUnion emissions standards. However, road tax, not just fuel efficiency, is a key consideration of consumerswhen purchasing a car. While measures have been taken to reduce emissions through stricter standards, infuture, alternative technologies will be used. Electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles and range extended electricvehicles have been identified as some of these future technologies. In this research a virtual test bed of aconventional internal combustion engine and a range extended electric vehicle family saloon car were builtin AVL’s vehicle and powertrain system level simulation tool, CRUISE, to simulate the New EuropeanDrive Cycle and the results were then soft-linked to a techno-economic model to compare the effectivenessof current support mechanisms over the full life cycle of both cars. The key finding indicates that althoughcarbon emissions are substantially reduced, switching is still not financially the best option for either theconsumer or the government in the long run.

Building information modeling based building design optimization for sustainability

Environmental problems, especially climate change, have become a serious global issue waiting for people to solve. In the construction industry, the concept of sustainable building is developing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, a building information modeling (BIM) based building design optimization method is proposed to facilitate designers to optimize their designs and improve buildings’ sustainability. A revised particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is applied to search for the trade-off between life cycle costs (LCC) and life cycle carbon emissions (LCCE) of building designs. In order tovalidate the effectiveness and efficiency of this method, a case study of an office building is conducted in Hong Kong. The result of the case study shows that this method can enlarge the searching space for optimal design solutions and shorten the processing time for optimal design results, which is really helpful for designers to deliver an economic and environmental friendly design scheme.

Genome Expression Profiling-Based Identification and Administration Efficacy of Host-Directed Antimicrobial Drugs against Respiratory Infection by Nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae

Therapies that are safe, effective, and not vulnerable to developing resistance are highly desirable to counteract bacterial infections. Host-directed therapeutics is an antimicrobial approach alternative to conventional antibiotics based on perturbing host pathways subverted by pathogens during their life cycle by using host-directed drugs. In this study, we identified and evaluated the efficacy of a panel of host-directed drugs against respiratory infection by nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi). NTHi is an opportunistic pathogen that is an important cause of exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We screened for host genes differentially expressed upon infection by the clinical isolate NTHi375 by analyzing cell whole-genome expression profiling and identified a repertoire of host target candidates that were pharmacologically modulated. Based on the proposed relationship between NTHi intracellular location and persistence, we hypothesized that drugs perturbing host pathways used by NTHi to enter epithelial cells could have antimicrobial potential against NTHi infection. Interfering drugs were tested for their effects on bacterial and cellular viability, on NTHi-epithelial cell interplay, and on mouse pulmonary infection. Glucocorticoids and statins lacked in vitro and/or in vivo efficacy. Conversely, the sirtuin-1 activator resveratrol showed a bactericidal effect against NTHi, and the PDE4 inhibitor rolipram showed therapeutic efficacy by lowering NTHi375 counts intracellularly and in the lungs of infected mice. PDE4 inhibition is currently prescribed in COPD, and resveratrol is an attractive geroprotector for COPD treatment. Together, these results expand our knowledge of NTHi-triggered host subversion and frame the antimicrobial potential of rolipram and resveratrol against NTHi respiratory infection.

Assessing the impact of shore-based shellfish collection on under-boulder communities in Strangford Lough.

Under-boulder communities are listed as a priority habitat as they provide shelter, shade and moisture and play an important role in the life-cycle of many marine algae and animals.

FlexiArch-stress ribbon combination for multi-span pedestrian bridges

The potential benefits of combining the elegance of the stress ribbon concept with the robustness and speed of construction of the FlexiArch is discussed. In combination, multi-span pedestrian/cycle bridges which are innovative, highly durable and have optimal full life cycle costs can be produced with lengths of over 100 m. As the stress ribbon system is well known, the main emphasis of this paper will be on the FlexiArch. Since 1900 few arch bridges have been built, but with the development of the innovative FlexiArch this trend can be reversed as they can be installed rapidly, are cost competitive, have all the attributes of masonry arches and are very sustainable. Thus the FlexiArch represents a very attractive alternative to heavily reinforced cast in situ arches currently used in combination with stress ribbon deck systems.