Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Background: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.

Methods: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.
Findings: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women.

Interpretation: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.

The value of adjuvant radiotherapy on survival and recurrence in triple-negative breast cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 5,507 patients

BACKGROUND: The value of adjuvant radiotherapy in triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) remains unclear. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted in TNBC patients to assess survival and recurrence outcomes associated with radiotherapy following either breast conserving therapy (BCT) or post-mastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT). METHODS: Four electronic databases were searched from January 2000 to November 2015 (PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science). Studies investigating overall survival and/or recurrence in TNBC patients according to radiotherapy administration were included. A random effects meta-analysis was conducted using mastectomy only patients as the reference.  RESULTS: Twelve studies were included. The pooled hazard ratio (HR) for locoregional recurrence comparing BCT and PMRT to mastectomy only was 0.61 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.41-0.90) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.44-0.86), respectively. Adjuvant radiotherapy was not significantly associated with distant recurrence. The pooled HR for overall survival comparing BCT and PMRT to mastectomy only was 0.57 (95% CI 0.36-0.88) and HR 1.12 (95% CI 0.75, 1.69). Comparing PMRT to mastectomy only, tests for interaction were not significant for stage (p=0.98) or age at diagnosis (p=0.85). However, overall survival was improved in patients with late-stage disease (T3-4, N2-3) pooled HR 0.53 (95% CI 0.32-0.86), and women <40 years, pooled HR 0.30 (95% CI 0.11-0.82). CONCLUSIONS: Adjuvant radiotherapy was associated with a significantly lower risk of locoregional recurrence in TNBC patients, irrespective of the type of surgery. While radiotherapy was not consistently associated with an overall survival gain, benefits may be obtained in women with late-stage disease and younger patients. 

Audit of mathematics learning support in Ireland in 2015 – the key findings

In 2015 the Irish Mathematics Learning Support Network (IMLSN) commissioned a comprehensive audit of the extent and nature of mathematics learning support (MLS) provision on the island of Ireland. An online survey was sent to 32 institutions, including universities, institutes of technology, further education and teacher training colleges, and a 97% response rate was achieved. While the headline figure – 84% of institutions that responded to the survey provide MLS – sounds good, deeper analysis reveals that the true state of MLS is not so solid. For example, in 25% of institutions offering MLS, only five hours per week (at most) of physical MLS are available, while in 20% of institutions the service is provided by only one or two staff members. Furthermore, training of tutors is minimal or non-existent in at least half of the institutions offering MLS. The results provide an illuminating picture, however, identifying the true state of MLS in Ireland is beneficial only if it informs developments in the years ahead. This talk will present some of the findings of the survey in more depth along with conclusions and recommendations. Key among these is the need for institutions to recognise MLS as a vital element of mathematics teaching and learning strategy at third level and devote the necessary resources to facilitate the provision of a service which can grow and adapt to meet student requirements.

Association Between Results of a Gene Expression Signature Assay and Recurrence-Free Interval in Patients With Stage II Colon Cancer in Cancer and Leukemia Group B 9581 (Alliance)

PURPOSE: Conventional staging methods are inadequate to identify patients with stage II colon cancer (CC) who are at high risk of recurrence after surgery with curative intent. ColDx is a gene expression, microarray-based assay shown to be independently prognostic for recurrence-free interval (RFI) and overall survival in CC. The objective of this study was to further validate ColDx using formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded specimens collected as part of the Alliance phase III trial, C9581.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: C9581 evaluated edrecolomab versus observation in patients with stage II CC and reported no survival benefit. Under an initial case-cohort sampling design, a randomly selected subcohort (RS) comprised 514 patients from 901 eligible patients with available tissue. Forty-nine additional patients with recurrence events were included in the analysis. Final analysis comprised 393 patients: 360 RS (58 events) and 33 non-RS events. Risk status was determined for each patient by ColDx. The Self-Prentice method was used to test the association between the resulting ColDx risk score and RFI adjusting for standard prognostic variables.

RESULTS: Fifty-five percent of patients (216 of 393) were classified as high risk. After adjustment for prognostic variables that included mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency, ColDx high-risk patients exhibited significantly worse RFI (multivariable hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.3 to 3.5; P < .01). Age and MMR status were marginally significant. RFI at 5 years for patients classified as high risk was 82% (95% CI, 79% to 85%), compared with 91% (95% CI, 89% to 93%) for patients classified as low risk.

CONCLUSION: ColDx is associated with RFI in the C9581 subsample in the presence of other prognostic factors, including MMR deficiency. ColDx could be incorporated with the traditional clinical markers of risk to refine patient prognosis.

Pleiotropic Analysis of Lung Cancer and Blood Triglycerides

Epidemiologically related traits may share genetic risk factors, and pleiotropic analysis could identify individual loci associated with these traits. Because of their shared epidemiological associations, we conducted pleiotropic analysis of genome-wide association studies of lung cancer (12 160 lung cancer case patients and 16 838 control subjects) and cardiovascular disease risk factors (blood lipids from 188 577 subjects, type 2 diabetes from 148 821 subjects, body mass index from 123 865 subjects, and smoking phenotypes from 74 053 subjects). We found that 6p22.1 (rs6904596, ZNF184) was associated with both lung cancer (P = 5.50x10(-6)) and blood triglycerides (P = 1.39x10(-5)). We replicated the association in 6097 lung cancer case patients and 204 657 control subjects (P = 2.40 × 10(-4)) and in 71 113 subjects with triglycerides data (P = .01). rs6904596 reached genome-wide significance in lung cancer meta-analysis (odds ratio = 1.15, 95% confidence interval = 1.10 to 1.21 ,: Pcombined = 5.20x10(-9)). The large sample size provided by the lipid GWAS data and the shared genetic risk factors between the two traits contributed to the uncovering of a hitherto unidentified genetic locus for lung cancer.

Patient-reported quality-of-life analysis of radium-223 dichloride from the phase III ALSYMPCA study

BACKGROUND: Radium-223 dichloride (radium-223), a first-in-class α-emitting radiopharmaceutical, is recommended in both pre- and post-docetaxel settings in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) and symptomatic bone metastases based on overall survival benefit demonstrated in the phase III ALSYMPCA study. ALSYMPCA included prospective measurements of health-related quality of life (QOL) using two validated instruments: the general EuroQoL 5D (EQ-5D) and the disease-specific Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Prostate (FACT-P).

PATIENTS AND METHODS: Analyses were conducted to determine treatment effects of radium-223 plus standard of care (SOC) versus placebo plus SOC on QOL using FACT-P and EQ-5D. Outcomes assessed were percentage of patients experiencing improvement, percentage of patients experiencing worsening, and mean QOL scores during the study.

RESULTS: Analyses were carried out on the intent-to-treat population of patients randomized to receive radium-223 (n = 614) or placebo (n = 307). The mean baseline EQ-5D utility and FACT-P total scores were similar between treatment groups. A significantly higher percentage of patients receiving radium-223 experienced meaningful improvement in EQ-5D utility score on treatment versus placebo {29.2% versus 18.5%, respectively; P = 0.004; odds ratio (OR) = 1.82 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-2.74]}. Findings were similar for FACT-P total score [24.6% versus 16.1%, respectively; P = 0.020; OR = 1.70 (95% CI 1.08-2.65)]. A lower percentage of patients receiving radium-223 experienced meaningful worsening versus placebo measured by EQ-5D utility score and FACT-P total score. Prior docetaxel use and current bisphosphonate use did not affect these findings. Treatment was a significant predictor of EQ-5D utility score, with radium-223 associated with higher scores versus placebo (0.56 versus 0.50, respectively; P = 0.002). Findings were similar for FACT-P total score (99.08 versus 95.22, respectively; P = 0.004).

CONCLUSIONS: QOL data from ALSYMPCA demonstrated that improved survival with radium-223 is accompanied by significant QOL benefits, including a higher percentage of patients with meaningful QOL improvement and a slower decline in QOL over time in patients with CRPC.

Conservative fluid management or deresuscitation for patients with sepsis or acute respiratory distress syndrome following the resuscitation phase of critical illness: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

It is unknown whether a conservative approach to fluid administration or deresuscitation (active removal of fluid using diuretics or renal replacement therapy) is beneficial following haemodynamic stabilisation of critically ill patients.

Purpose

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of conservative or deresuscitative fluid strategies in adults and children with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), sepsis or systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) in the post-resuscitation phase of critical illness.

Methods

We searched Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane central register of controlled trials from 1980 to June 2016, and manually reviewed relevant conference proceedings from 2009 to the present. Two reviewers independently assessed search results for inclusion and undertook data extraction and quality appraisal. We included randomised trials comparing fluid regimens with differing fluid balances between groups, and observational studies investigating the relationship between fluid balance and clinical outcomes.

Results

Forty-nine studies met the inclusion criteria. Marked clinical heterogeneity was evident. In a meta-analysis of 11 randomised trials (2051 patients) using a random-effects model, we found no significant difference in mortality with conservative or deresuscitative strategies compared with a liberal strategy or usual care [pooled risk ratio (RR) 0.92, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.82–1.02, I2 = 0 %]. A conservative or deresuscitative strategy resulted in increased ventilator-free days (mean difference 1.82 days, 95 % CI 0.53–3.10, I2 = 9 %) and reduced length of ICU stay (mean difference −1.88 days, 95 % CI −0.12 to −3.64, I2 = 75 %) compared with a liberal strategy or standard care.

Conclusions

In adults and children with ARDS, sepsis or SIRS, a conservative or deresuscitative fluid strategy results in an increased number of ventilator-free days and a decreased length of ICU stay compared with a liberal strategy or standard care. The effect on mortality remains uncertain. Large randomised trials are needed to determine optimal fluid strategies in critical illness.