Impacts of climate change on species, populations and communities: palaeobiogeographical insights and frontiers

Understanding climate change and its potential impact on species, populations and communities is one of the most pressing questions of twenty-fi rst-century conservation planning. Palaeobiogeographers working on Cenozoic fossil records and other lines of evidence are producing important insights into the dynamic nature of climate and the equally dynamic response of species, populations and communities. Climatic variations ranging in length from multimillennia to decades run throughout the palaeo-records of the Quaternary and earlier Cenozoic and have been shown to have had impacts ranging from changes in the genetic structure and morphology of individual species, population sizes and distributions, community composition to large-scale bio-diversity gradients. The biogeographical impacts of climate change may be due directly to the effects of alterations in temperature and moisture on species, or they may arise due to changes in factors such as disturbance regimes. Much of the recent progress in the application of palaeobiogegraphy to issues of climate change and its impacts can be attributed to developments along a number of still advancing methodological frontiers. These include increasingly finely resolved chronological resolution, more refi ned atmosphere-biosphere modelling, new biological and chemical techniques in reconstructing past species distributions and past climates, the development of large and readily accessible geo-referenced databases of biogeographical and climatic information, and new approaches in fossil morphological analysis and new molecular DNA techniques.

Serendipitous Asteroid Lightcurve Survey Using SuperWASP

The SuperWASP project is an ultra-wide angle search for extra solar planetary transits. However, it can also serendipitously detect solar system objects, such as asteroids and comets. Each SuperWASP instrument consists of up to eight cameras, combined with high-quality peltier-cooled CCDs, which photometrically survey large numbers of stars in the magnitude range 7 15. Each camera covers a 7.8 × 7.8 degree field of view. Located on La Palma, the SuperWASP-I instrument has been observing the Northern Hemisphere with five cameras since its inauguration in April 2004. The ultra-wide angle field of view gives SuperWASP the possibility of discovering new fast moving (near to Earth) asteroids that could have been missed by other instruments. However, it provides an excellent opportunity to produce a magnitude-limited lightcurve survey of known main belt asteroids. As slow moving asteroids stay within a single SuperWASP field for several weeks, and may be seen in many fields, a survey of all objects brighter than magnitude 15 is possible. This will provide a significant increase in the total number of lightcurves available for statistical studies without the inherent bias against longer periods present in the current data sets. We present the methodology used in the automated collection of asteroid data from SuperWASP and some of the first examples of lightcurves from numbered asteroids.

Analysing orchestrations with risk profiles and angel-daemon games

In this paper game theory is used to analyse the effect of a number of service failures during the execution of a grid orchestration. A service failure may be catastrophic in that it causes an entire orchestration to fail. Alternatively, a grid manager may utilise alternative services in the case of failure, allowing an orchestration to recover, A risk profile provides a means of modelling situations in a way that is neither overly optimistic nor overly pessimistic. Risk profiles are analysed using angel and daemon games. A risk profile can be assigned a valuation through an analysis of the structure of its associated Nash equilibria. Some structural properties of valuation functions, that show their validity as a measure for risk, are given. Two main cases are considered, the assessment of Orc expressions and the arrangement of a meeting using reputations.

Postglacial vegetation and climate dynamics in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex, central coastal British Columbia, Canada: palynological evidence from Tiny Lake.

A pollen-based study from Tiny Lake in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex of central coastal British Columbia, Canada, permits an evaluation of the dynamic response of coastal temperate rainforests to postglacial climate change. Open Pinus parklands grew at the site during the early Lateglacial when the climate was cool and dry, but more humid conditions in the later phases of the Lateglacial permitted mesophytic conifers to colonise the region. Early Holocene conditions were warmer than present and a successional mosaic of Tsuga heterophylla and Alnus occurred at Tiny Lake. Climate cooling and moistening at 8740?±?70 14C a BP initiated the development of closed, late successional T. heterophylla–Cupressaceae forests, which achieved modern character after 6860?±?50 14C a BP, when a temperate and very wet climate became established. The onset of early Holocene climate cooling and moistening at Tiny Lake may have preceded change at more southern locations, including within the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex, on a meso- to synoptic scale. This would suggest that an early Holocene intensification of the Aleutian Low pressure system was an important influence on forest dynamics in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex and that the study region was located near the southern extent of immediate influence of this semi-permanent air mass.

Developing NGO competencies in post-disaster reconstruction: a theoretical framework

In the aftermath of recent natural disasters, NGOs have become increasingly involved in the permanent reconstruction of affected communities. These organizations, often operating well outside their expertise, encounter significant barriers as they implement reconstruction programmes. This paper presents the theoretical bedrock of a current research project, the overall goal of which is to design a competency-based framework model that can be used by NGOs in post-disaster reconstruction projects. Drawing on established theories of management, a unique perspective has been developed from which a competency-based reconstruction theory emerges. This theoretical framework brings together three distinct fields; Disaster Management, Strategic Management and Project Management, each vital to the success of the model. This theoretical study will incorporate a critical review of literature within each field. It is imperative that NGOs involved in post-disaster reconstruction familiarize themselves with concepts and strategies. It is hoped that the competence-based frame-work model that is produced on the basis of this theory will help define the standard of best practice to which future NGO projects might align themselves.

A new method of measuring plastic limit of fine materials

Index properties such as the liquid limit and plastic limit are widely used to evaluate certain geotechnical parameters of fine-grained soils. Measurement of the liquid limit is a mechanical process, and the possibility of errors occurring during measurement is not significant. However, this is not the case for plastic limit testing, despite the fact that the current method of measurement is embraced by many standards around the world. The method in question relies on a fairly crude procedure known widely as the ‘thread rolling' test, though it has been the subject of much criticism in recent years. It is essential that a new, more reliable method of measuring the plastic limit is developed using a mechanical process that is both consistent and easily reproducible. The work reported in this paper concerns the development of a new device to measure the plastic limit, based on the existing falling cone apparatus. The force required for the test is equivalent to the application of a 54 N fast-static load acting on the existing cone used in liquid limit measurements. The test is complete when the relevant water content of the soil specimen allows the cone to achieve a penetration of 20 mm. The new technique was used to measure the plastic limit of 16 different clays from around the world. The plastic limit measured using the new method identified reasonably well the water content at which the soil phase changes from the plastic to the semi-solid state. Further evaluation was undertaken by conducting plastic limit tests using the new method on selected samples and comparing the results with values reported by local site investigation laboratories. Again, reasonable agreement was found.

An assessment of the earth pressure coefficient in overconsolidated clays

The determination of the earth pressure coefficient K 0 in a natural clay deposit is a problem of considerable significance in geotechnical engineering. While the methods for evaluation of K 0 are reliable for normally consolidated soils, significant difficulties still exist in evaluating K 0 in overconsolidated clays, given that it is influenced by the stress history of the material, together with the age, structure, mineralogical composition and depositional environment. Indeed, some of these factors are responsible for the soil becoming anisotropic. The existing framework for prediction of K 0 in overconsolidated soils does not account for any influences caused by anisotropy. The work reported in this paper evaluates the validity of a revised relationship between K 0oc and OCR (overconsolidation ratio) using data obtained from laboratory investigations. The tests were performed on reconstituted and undisturbed samples of Belfast Upper Boulder Clay, London Clay and Gault Clay. Tests were also performed on reconstituted samples of kaolin. The values of K 0oc were determined using various approaches, including on-sample measurements. The results have confirmed that reliable predictions of K 0oc can be made using the proposed relationship.

Coefficient of consolidation by plotting velocity against displacement

A method is presented for estimating the initial compression, the final compression and the coefficient of consolidation from an observed, experimental consolidation response, using a plot of velocity versus displacement and the conventional Taylor plot of compression versus the square root of time. Goodness of fit measures indicate that the method produces good agreement between fitted and measured displacement values, at least up until the point where the impact of secondary compression on the overall displacement response becomes significant.