Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting as far back as 1650 and powerful panel data stationarity tests that allow for endogenous multiple structural breaks. Results show that all the series are stationary after allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. Test results on the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis, which states that relative commodity prices follow a downward secular trend, are mixed but with a majority of series showing negative trends. We also make a first attempt at identifying the potential drivers of the structural breaks. We end by investigating the dynamics of the volatility of the 25 relative primary commodity prices also allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. We describe the often time-varying volatility in commodity prices and show that it has increased in recent years.

Phosphorus Adsorption onto an Industrial Acidified Laterite By‒Product: Equilibrium and Thermodynamic Investigation

The present research investigates the uptake of phosphate ions from aqueous solutions using acidified laterite (ALS), a by-product from the production of ferric aluminium sulfate using laterite. Phosphate adsorption experiments were performed in batch systems to determine the amount of phosphate adsorbed as a function of solution pH, adsorbent dosage and thermodynamic parameters per fixed P concentration. Kinetic studies were also carried out to study the effect of adsorbent particle sizes. The maximum removal capacity of ALS observed at pH 5 was 3.68 mg P g^-1. It was found that as the adsorbent dosage increases, the equilibrium pH decreases, so an adsorbent dosage of 1.0 g L^-1 of ALS was selected. Adsorption capacity (q_m) calculated from the Langmuir isotherm was found to be 2.73 mg g^-1. Kinetic experimental data were mathematically well described using the pseudo first-order model over the full range of the adsorbent particle size. The adsorption reactions were endothermic, and the process of adsorption was favoured at high temperature; the ΔG and ΔH values implied that the main adsorption mechanism of P onto ALS is physisorption. The desorption studies indicated the need to consider a NaOH 0.1M solution as an optimal solution for practical regeneration applications.

Optimal Time Series Momentum

We develop a continuous-time asset price model to capture the timeseries momentum documented recently. The underlying stochastic delay differentialsystem facilitates the analysis of effects of different time horizons used bymomentum trading. By studying an optimal asset allocation problem, we find thatthe performance of time series momentum strategy can be significantly improvedby combining with market fundamentals and timing opportunity with respect tomarket trend and volatility. Furthermore, the results also hold for different timehorizons, the out-of-sample tests and with short-sale constraints. The outperformanceof the optimal strategy is immune to market states, investor sentiment andmarket volatility.

Ionic liquids for efficient hydrogen sulfide and thiol scavenging

Functionalised pyridinium and ammonium ionic liquids bearing a Michael acceptor are shown to scavenge H₂S gas and various thiols, in most cases, without the aid of any added bases. Utilising the effective non-volatility of ionic liquids and ‘tagging’ malodourous substances to an ionic matrix renders them odourless.

Radiosensitising Nanoparticles as Novel Cancer Therapeutics — Pipe Dream or Realistic Prospect?

The field of high atomic number nanoparticle radiosensitising agents is reviewed. After a brief discussion of the new mode of physicochemical action implied by irradiation of high atomic number nanoparticles embedded in biological systems, a series of exemplars are discussed. Silver-, gadolinium- and gold-based nanoparticles are discussed in order of increasing atomic number with functionalisation strategies being outlined. In vitro and in vivo evidence for radio-enhancement and the mechanisms attributed to the increased biological effect are discussed.

Time-Varying Liquidity and Momentum Profits

A basic intuition is that arbitrage is easier when markets are most liquid. Surprisingly, we find that momentum profits are markedly larger in liquid market states. This finding is not explained by variation in liquidity risk, time-varying exposure to risk factors, or changes in macroeconomic condition, cross-sectional return dispersion, and investor sentiment. The predictive performance of aggregate market illiquidity for momentum profits uniformly exceed that of market return and market volatility states. While momentum strategies are unconditionally unprofitable in US, Japan, and Eurozone countries in the last decade, they are substantial following liquid market states.

The P/2010 A2 Asteroid Collision Confirmed by Rosetta/OSIRIS Observation

The discovery of P/2010 A2 by the LINEAR survey in January 2010 revealed an object displaying a large trail of material similar in shape to a cometary tail although no central condensation or coma could be detected. The appearance of this object in an asteroidal orbit in the inner main belt attracted attention as a potential new member of the Main Belt Comets class (MBCs) but the discovery of a nucleus, with an estimated diameter of 120 m, around 1500 km away from the trail implied that the extended object we were seeing could be the debris trail from a recent collision rather than the tail of a comet. Due to the low inclination of its orbit, it is difficult to conclude about the nature of P/2010 A2 from Earth-based data only, as different scenarios lead to the same appearance in the orbital configuration at the times of observations. We present here another set of images, acquired from the unique viewing geometry provided by ESA's Rosetta spacecraft en route to comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. Albeit faint (22 magnitude), the object could be observed by the high-resolution camera OSIRIS. We used a Finson-Probstein model to simulate the shape of the trail, and estimate the time of emission and β parameter (ratio between solar radiation pressure and gravity) for the dust grains. Simulations were compared to the OSIRIS images and ground based observations acquired at NTT and Palomar telescopes. Thanks to the different phase angle provided by Rosetta, we could reduce the number of solutions to a unique model, leading to the conclusive demonstration that the trail is due to a single event rather than a period of cometary activity.

Gas generation in interconnected power systems with high wind power penetration

Increasing installed capacities of wind power in an effort to achieve sustainable power systems for future generations pose problems for system operators. Volatility in generation volumes due to the adoption of stochastic wind power is increasing. Storage has been shown to act as a buffer for these stochastic energy sources, facilitating the integration of renewable energy into a historically inflexible power system. This paper examines peak and off peak benefits realised by installing a short term discharge storage unit in a system with a high penetration of wind power in 2020. A fully representative unit commitment and economic dispatch model is used to analyse two scenarios, one ‘with storage’ and one ‘without storage’. Key findings of this preliminary study show that wind curtailment can be reduced in the storage scenario, with a larger reduction in peak time ramping of gas generators is realised.

Correlates of food choice in unemployed young people: The role of demographic factors, self-efficacy, food involvement, food poverty and physical activity

Associations between socio-demographic and psychological factors and food choice patterns were explored in unemployed young people who constitute a vulnerable group at risk of poor dietary health. Volunteers (N = 168), male (n = 97) and female (n = 71), aged 15–25 years were recruited through United Kingdom (UK) community-based organisations serving young people not in education training or employment (NEET). Survey questionnaire enquired on food poverty, physical activity and measured responses to the Food Involvement Scale (FIS), Food Self-Efficacy Scale (FSS) and a 19-item Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ). A path analysis was undertaken to explore associations between age, gender, food poverty, age at leaving school, food self-efficacy (FS-E), food involvement (FI) (kitchen; uninvolved; enjoyment), physical activity and the four food choice patterns (junk food; healthy; fast food; high fat). FS-E was strong in the model and increased with age. FS-E was positively associated with more
frequent choice of healthy food and less frequent junk or high fat food (having controlled for age, gender and age at leaving school). FI (kitchen and enjoyment) increased with age. Higher FI (kitchen) was associated with less frequent junk food and fast food choice. Being uninvolved with food was associated with
more frequent fast food choice. Those who left school after the age of 16 years reported more frequent physical activity. Of the indirect effects, younger individuals had lower FI (kitchen) which led to frequent junk and fast food choice. Females who were older had higher FI (enjoyment) which led to less frequent fast food choice. Those who had left school before the age of 16 had low food involvement (uninvolved) which led to frequent junk food choice. Multiple indices implied that data were a good fit to the model which indicated a need to enhance food self-efficacy and encourage food involvement in order to improve dietary health among these disadvantaged young people.

Professional Negligence, Solicitors: Recent Case Law, 2014

In preparation for this talk I have reviewed cases of interest in the High Courts and Courts of Appeal of England and Wales and Northern Ireland from the past two years or so on professional negligence and liability and principally relating to solicitors.

There are six topics of interest: the general duty of care demanded of solicitors in the carrying out of their professional obligations; whether there is a specific duty on a solicitor to warn or advise a client of any implied risk in, say, a commercial transaction; what is the scope of the duty on a solicitor to explain the content of or clauses in a legal document; a recent case of interest applying the White v Jones principle to a disappointed beneficiary seeking to make a claim against a solicitor who negligently prepared a will; the practical, limitation issue of how to pinpoint in a professional negligence claim when the damage was first sustained by the claimant; and finally some case law here and in England and Wales on the (costs) implications for solicitors relating to any failure to adhere to case management protocols or related court directions.

Uncovering BRCA1-regulated signalling pathways by microarray-based expression profiling

The introduction of microarray technology to the scientific and medical communities has dramatically changed the way in which we now address basic biomedical questions. Expression profiling using microarrays facilitates an experimental approach where alterations in the transcript level of entire transcriptomes can be simultaneously assayed in response to defined stimuli. We have used microarray analysis to identify downstream transcriptional targets of the BRCA1 (Breast Cancer 1) tumour-suppressor gene as a means of defining its function. BRCA1 has been implicated in the predisposition to early onset breast and ovarian cancer and while its exact function remains to be defined, roles in DNA repair, cell-cycle control and transcriptional regulation have been implied. In the current study we have generated cell lines with tetracycline-regulated, inducible expression of BRCA1 as a tool to identify genes, which might represent important effectors of BRCA1 function. Oligonucleotide array-based expression profiling identified a number of genes that were upregulated at various times following inducible expression of BRCA1 including the DNA damage-responsive gene GADD45 (Growth Arrest after DNA Damage). Identified targets were confirmed by Northern blot analysis and their functional significance as BRCA1 targets examined.

Combining Bio- and Chemo-catalysis for the Conversion of Bio-Renewable Alcohols

The use of biomass as a source of fuel is on the sharp increase. In parallel with this expansion, new chemical processes and technologies are required to improve efficiency, sustainability, and profitability.
Biocatalytic and chemocatalytic methods can be combined to affect the conversion of bio-alcohols, and convert them to valuable chemical targets in an atom efficient and environmentally benign manor. Fermentation offers a useful first step in biomass conversion, as whole cell biocatalysts can provide sustained activity when fed with crude biomass. Coupling this with homogeneous and/or heterogeneous catalysis enables the preparation of a diverse product range. The transition between biocatalytic and chemocatalytic steps can be assisted by utilising ionic liquids.
Ionic liquids have potential roles in biorefineries that generate alcohols; as an extractant, reaction medium, and catalytic reagent. Underpinning the potential of ionic liquids in this area is: 1. the ability of ionic liquids to solubilize polyols and alcohols; 2. the facility to functionalise ionic liquids and tune properties; 3. the low volatility of ionic liquids.
The FP7 project GRAIL will be highlighted; this project focusses on the utilisation of glycerol formed as a by-product in biodiesel synthesis.

Equilibration and nonclassicality of a double-well potential

A double-well loaded with bosonic atoms represents an ideal candidate to simulate some of the most interesting aspects in the phenomenology of thermalisation and equilibration. Here we report an exhaustive analysis of the dynamics and steady state properties of such a system locally in contact with different temperature reservoirs. We show that thermalisation only occurs 'accidentally'. We further examine the nonclassical features and energy fluxes implied by the dynamics of the double-well system, thus exploring its finite-time thermodynamics in relation to the settlement of nonclassical correlations between the wells.

Identifying the relative importance of stock characteristics

There is no consensus in the literature as to which stock characteristic best explains returns. In this study, we employ a novel econometric approach better suited than the traditional characteristic sorting method to answer this question for the UK market. We evaluate the relative explanatory power of market, size, momentum, volatility, liquidity and book-to-market factors in a semiparametric characteristic-based factor model which does not require constructing characteristic portfolios. We find that momentum is the most important factor and liquidity is the least important based on their relative contribution to the fit of the model and the proportion of sample months for which factor returns are significant. Overall, this study provides strong evidence to support that the momentum characteristic can best explain stock returns in the UK market. The econometric approach employed in this study is a novel way to assess relevant investment risk in international financial markets outside U.S. Moreover, multinational institutions and investors can use this approach to identify regional factors in order to diversify their portfolios.

Magnitude, form and bioavailability of fluvial carbon exports from Irish organic soils under pasture

Organic soils are widespread in Ireland and vulnerable to degradation via drainage for agriculture. The soil-landuse combination of pasture on organic soils may play a disproportionate role in regional C dynamics but is yet to receive study. Fluvial C fluxes and labile organic fractions were determined for two such sites at nested field (c.4 ha) and subcatchment scales (>40 ha); one relatively dry and nutrient rich, the other wetter and nutrient poor. Field scale flux from the nutrient poor site over 2 years was 38.9 ± 6.6 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ with DIC > DOC > POC at 57, 32 and 11 % respectively, and 72 % DIC was comprised of above equilibrium CO₂. At the nutrient rich site, which overlies limestone geology, field scale export over an individual year was 90.4 g C m⁻² with DIC > DOC > POC at 49, 42 and 9 %, but with 90 % DIC as bicarbonate. By comparison with the nutrient poor site, the magnitude and composition of inorganic C exports from the nutrient rich site implied considerable export of soil-respiratory C as bicarbonate, and lower evasion losses due to carbonate system buffering. Labile DOC determined using dark incubations indicated small fractions (5–10 %) available for remineralisation over typical downstream transit times of days to weeks. These fractions are probably conservative as photolysis in the environment can increase the proportion of labile compounds via photocleavage and directly remineralise organic matter. This study demonstrates that monitoring at soil–water interfaces can aid capture of total landscape fluvial fluxes by precluding the need to incorporate prior C evasion, although rapid runoff responses at field scales can necessitate high resolution flow proportional, and hydrograph sampling to constrain uncertainty of flux estimates.