Managing Future offshore wind power variability in a European Supergrid

The future European power system will have a hierarchical structure created by layers of system control from a Supergrid via regional high-voltage transmission through to medium and low-voltage distribution. Each level will have generation sources such as large-scale offshore wind, wave, solar thermal, nuclear directly connected to this Supergrid and high levels of embedded generation, connected to the medium-voltage distribution system. It is expected that the fuel portfolio will be dominated by offshore wind in Northern Europe and PV in Southern Europe. The strategies required to manage the coordination of supply-side variability with demand-side variability will include large scale interconnection, demand side management, load aggregation and storage in the context of the Supergrid combined with the Smart Grid. The design challenge associated with this will not only include control topology, data acquisition, analysis and communications technologies, but also the selection of fuel portfolio at a macro level. This paper quantifies the amount of demand side management, storage and so-called 'back-up generation' needed to support an 80% renewable energy portfolio in Europe by 2050. © 2013 IEEE.

Managing the variability of supply in the European power system with high wind energy penetration

The power system of the future will have a hierarchical structure created by layers of system control from via regional high-voltage transmission through to medium and low-voltage distribution. Each level will have generation sources such as large-scale offshore wind, wave, solar thermal, nuclear directly connected to this Supergrid and high levels of embedded generation, connected to the medium-voltage distribution system. It is expected that the fuel portfolio will be dominated by offshore wind in Northern Europe and PV in Southern Europe. The strategies required to manage the coordination of supply-side variability with demand-side variability will include large scale interconnection, demand side management, load aggregation and storage in the concept of the Supergrid combined with the Smart Grid. The design challenge associated with this will not only include control topology, data acquisition, analysis and communications technologies, but also the selection of fuel portfolio at a macro level. This paper quantifies the amount of demand side management, storage and so-called ‘back-up generation’ needed to support an 80% renewable energy portfolio in Europe by 2050.

High variability in the dosing of commonly used antibiotics revealed by a Europe-wide point prevalence study: implications for research and dissemination

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic dosing in neonates varies between countries and centres, suggesting suboptimal exposures for some neonates. We aimed to describe variations and factors influencing the variability in the dosing of frequently used antibiotics in European NICUs to help define strategies for improvement.

METHODS: A sub-analysis of the European Study of Neonatal Exposure to Excipients point prevalence study was undertaken. Demographic data of neonates receiving any antibiotic on the study day within one of three two-week periods from January to June 2012, the dose, dosing interval and route of administration of each prescription were recorded. The British National Formulary for Children (BNFC) and Neofax were used as reference sources. Risk factors for deviations exceeding ±25% of the relevant BNFC dosage recommendation were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS: In 89 NICUs from 21 countries, 586 antibiotic prescriptions for 342 infants were reported. The twelve most frequently used antibiotics - gentamicin, penicillin G, ampicillin, vancomycin, amikacin, cefotaxime, ceftazidime, meropenem, amoxicillin, metronidazole, teicoplanin and flucloxacillin - covered 92% of systemic prescriptions. Glycopeptide class, GA <32 weeks, 5(th) minute Apgar score <5 and geographical region were associated with deviation from the BNFC dosage recommendation. While the doses of penicillins exceeded recommendations, antibiotics with safety concerns followed (gentamicin) or were dosed below (vancomycin) recommendations.

CONCLUSIONS: The current lack of compliance with existing dosing recommendations for neonates needs to be overcome through the conduct of well-designed clinical trials with a limited number of antibiotics to define pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics, efficacy and safety in this population and by efficient dissemination of the results.

Proportioning variability in the dispensation of hand-mixed dental cements

Objectives: The purpose of this investigation was to determine for dispensed multiples (1 through 4) of powder (P) and liquid (L) in hand-mixed dental cement whether: (1) the mean (P/L) ratio (m/m) and (2) the maximum difference in (P/L) ratio is dependent on the number of multiples dispensed. The Null hypotheses were: (a) mean (P/L) ratio is independent of the number of multiples dispensed and (b) maximum difference in (P/L) ratio is independent of the number of multiples dispensed.
Methods: The materials investigated are listed in the Table. The masses of dispensed aliquots of powder and liquid were measured by a single operator (n=10, for multiples 1 through 4) on a 4-place analytical balance. All measurements were made independently and all possible (P/L) ratios calculated for each sample. The effect of multiple dispensations on (P/L) ratios and maximum (P/L) differences was by one-way ANOVA and linear regression, respectively, with the Tukey post-hoc correction for multiple comparisons.MULTIPLE DISPENSEDDISPENSED MU(x1)(x2)(x3)(x4)Zinc phosphateHeraeus12.271(0.691)a13.051(1.269)b13.215(0.824)b13.118(1.149)bFuji IXGC4.209(0.373)a4.085(0.275)b4.095(0.226)b4.095(0.217)bIRMDentsply7.933(0.767)a7.430(0.451)b7.977(0.729)a8.186(0.929)aKetac-Cem3M Espe9.6206(0.613)a9.714(0.523)a9.298(0.314)b9.321(0.292)bMean (SD) powder/liquid ratio (m/m). Superscript letters represent significances (α = 0.05) within each material
Results: Mean (SD) (P/L) ratios are presented in the Table. Null hypothesis (a) is rejected: either (x1) or (x2) dispensation yields a different (P/L) ratio to (x3) or (x4) (p < 0.05). Null hypothesis (b) is rejected: a negative correlation is observed in max (P/L) ratio difference with dispensed multiple for Ketac Cem (p = 0.029).
Conclusion: For hand-mixed dental cements: (1) more consistent (P/L) ratios may be observed with multiple dispensations of powder & liquid; (2) maximum differences in (P/L) ratio may be negatively correlated with dispensation multiple in some materials.

North Atlantic surface ocean 14C variability between 30 – 40 kyr. BP

The Faroe-Shetland channel is situated in the main path of the inflow of warm North Atlantic surface water to the Nordic seas and further provides an escape route for the cold Norwegian Sea Deep Water. AMS 14C dates of planktonic foraminifera covering Marine Isotope Stage 3 from two cores in the Faroe-Shetland channel will be used to trace past variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The reservoir age R shows considerable variability ranging between 50 to 2750 14C years. In particular high R values are observed during Heinrich event 4 (H4) with values around 1550 14C years and during the Laschamp magnetic excursion with R values as high as 2700 14C years. The period between Greenland interstadial 8 (GI8) and GI5 show highly variable R values with interstadial R values around 500 – 650 14C years, i.e. slightly higher than ‘normal’, whereas stadials show either significantly higher or lower R values. From GI5 towards the Last Glacial Maximum R values are generally around 1000 14C years or higher. Using magnetic susceptibility, IRD and δ13C and δ18O values measured on the planktic foraminifera species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, we compare the observed R variability with reconstructed changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Furthermore a climate model of intermediate complexity (GENIE) including 14C is used as conceptual tool for identifying oceanographic configuration explaining the observed R variability.

Nong Thale Pron - a key site from southern Thailand for studying monsoon variability during the past 15000 years

Studies of marine sediments, cave speleothemes, annually laminated corals, and tree rings from Asian monsoon regions have added knowledge to our understanding of the factors that control inter-annual to millennial monsoon variability in the past and have provided important constraints for climate modeling scenarios. In contrast, the spatial and temporal pattern of sub-millennial scale monsoon variability and its impact on land cover in SE Asia are still unresolved. This shortcoming stems from the fact that temporally well-resolved paleo-environmental studies are missing from large parts of SE Asia, especially from Thailand. Given that global and regional climate models are increasingly using terrestrial paleo- data to test their performance, past changes in land cover are therefore important variables to better understand feedbacks between different Earth systems. We obtained sediments from Lake Nong Thale Pron, in southern Thailand (8º 10`N, 99 º23`E; 380 m.asl). The aim of our study is to reconstruct lake status changes and to evaluate whether the extent of these changes are linked to known shifts in monsoon intensity and variability. Preliminary results show that lake infilling started more than 15,000 years ago and that the sediments cover the last deglaciation and the Holocene. Current analyses include Itrax XRF core scanning, loss-on-ignition (LOI at 950 and 550ºC), CN elemental and isotopic composition. We expect that our results will be able to give a picture of how the lake's status has changed over time and whether the extent of these changes is linked to known shifts in monsoon intensity and variability.

Spatial and temporal variability of the freshwater reservoir effect (FRE) in lacustrine sediments in a cold climate zone, Northwest Territories (Canada)

Climate variability along the 600 km Tibbitt to Contwyoto Winter Road (TCWR) in central Northwest Territories is poorly understood. With the transportation of goods from Yellowknife to the mines projected to increase significantly as new mines open, it is critical that planners and mine developers have reasonable data on the future viability of the road, as alternative transportation costs (e.g. air transport) are prohibitively high.

The research presented here is part of a paleoclimate study based on the analysis of multiple proxy data derived from freeze cores in lakes along the TCWR.

Attending Physician Variability: A Model of Four Supervisory Styles

Purpose: There is wide variability in how attending physician roles on teaching teams, including patient care and trainee learning, are enacted. This study sought to better understand variability by considering how different attendings configured and rationalized direct patient care, trainee oversight, and teaching activities. 

Method: Constructivist grounded theory guided iterative data collection and analyses. Data were interviews with 24 attending physicians from two academic centers in Ontario, Canada, in 2012. During interviews, participants heard a hypothetical presentation and reflected on it as though it were presented to their team during a typical admission case review. 

Results: Four supervisory styles were identified: direct care, empowerment, mixed practice, and minimalist. Driven by concerns for patient safety, direct care involves delegating minimal patient care responsibility to trainees. Focused on supporting trainees’ progressive independence, empowerment uses teaching and oversight strategies to ensure quality of care. In mixed practice, patient care is privileged over teaching and is adjusted on the basis of trainee competence and contextual features such as patient volume. Minimalist style involves a high degree of trust in senior residents, delegating most patient care, and teaching to them. Attendings rarely discussed their styles with the team. 

Conclusions: The model adds to the literature on variability in supervisory practice, showing that the four styles reflect different ways of responding to tensions in the role and context. This model could be refined through observational research exploring the impact of context on style development and enactment. Making supervisory styles explicit could support improvement of team competence.

CSI 2264: Simultaneous Optical and Infrared Light Curves of Young Disk-bearing Stars in NGC 2264 with CoRoT and Spitzer—Evidence for Multiple Origins of Variability

We present the Coordinated Synoptic Investigation of NGC 2264, a continuous 30 day multi-wavelength photometric monitoring campaign on more than 1000 young cluster members using 16 telescopes. The unprecedented combination of multi-wavelength, high-precision, high-cadence, and long-duration data opens a new window into the time domain behavior of young stellar objects. Here we provide an overview of the observations, focusing on results from Spitzer and CoRoT. The highlight of this work is detailed analysis of 162 classical T Tauri stars for which we can probe optical and mid-infrared flux variations to 1% amplitudes and sub-hour timescales. We present a morphological variability census and then use metrics of periodicity, stochasticity, and symmetry to statistically separate the light curves into seven distinct classes, which we suggest represent different physical processes and geometric effects. We provide distributions of the characteristic timescales and amplitudes and assess the fractional representation within each class. The largest category (>20%) are optical "dippers" with discrete fading events lasting ~1-5 days. The degree of correlation between the optical and infrared light curves is positive but weak; notably, the independently assigned optical and infrared morphology classes tend to be different for the same object. Assessment of flux variation behavior with respect to (circum)stellar properties reveals correlations of variability parameters with Hα emission and with effective temperature. Overall, our results point to multiple origins of young star variability, including circumstellar obscuration events, hot spots on the star and/or disk, accretion bursts, and rapid structural changes in the inner disk. Based on data from the Spitzer and CoRoT missions. The CoRoT space mission was developed and is operated by the French space agency CNES, with participation of ESA's RSSD and Science Programmes, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Germany, and Spain.

Young Stellar Object VARiability (YSOVAR): Long Timescale Variations in the Mid-infrared

The YSOVAR (Young Stellar Object VARiability) Spitzer Space Telescope observing program obtained the first extensive mid-infrared (3.6 and 4.5 μm) time series photometry of the Orion Nebula Cluster plus smaller footprints in 11 other star-forming cores (AFGL 490, NGC 1333, Mon R2, GGD 12-15, NGC 2264, L1688, Serpens Main, Serpens South, IRAS 20050+2720, IC 1396A, and Ceph C). There are ~29,000 unique objects with light curves in either or both IRAC channels in the YSOVAR data set. We present the data collection and reduction for the Spitzer and ancillary data, and define the "standard sample" on which we calculate statistics, consisting of fast cadence data, with epochs roughly twice per day for ~40 days. We also define a "standard sample of members" consisting of all the IR-selected members and X-ray-selected members. We characterize the standard sample in terms of other properties, such as spectral energy distribution shape. We use three mechanisms to identify variables in the fast cadence data—the Stetson index, a χ2 fit to a flat light curve, and significant periodicity. We also identified variables on the longest timescales possible of six to seven years by comparing measurements taken early in the Spitzer mission with the mean from our YSOVAR campaign. The fraction of members in each cluster that are variable on these longest timescales is a function of the ratio of Class I/total members in each cluster, such that clusters with a higher fraction of Class I objects also have a higher fraction of long-term variables. For objects with a YSOVAR-determined period and a [3.6]-[8] color, we find that a star with a longer period is more likely than those with shorter periods to have an IR excess. We do not find any evidence for variability that causes [3.6]-[4.5] excesses to appear or vanish within our data set; out of members and field objects combined, at most 0.02% may have transient IR excesses.

YSOVAR: Mid-infrared Variability in the Star-forming Region Lynds 1688

The emission from young stellar objects (YSOs) in the mid-infrared (mid-IR) is dominated by the inner rim of their circumstellar disks. We present IR data from the Young Stellar Object VARiability (YSOVAR) survey of ~800 objects in the direction of the Lynds 1688 (L1688) star-forming region over four visibility windows spanning 1.6 yr using the Spitzer Space Telescope in its warm mission phase. Among all light curves, 57 sources are cluster members identified based on their spectral energy distribution and X-ray emission. Almost all cluster members show significant variability. The amplitude of the variability is larger in more embedded YSOs. Ten out of 57 cluster members have periodic variations in the light curves with periods typically between three and seven days, but even for those sources, significant variability in addition to the periodic signal can be seen. No period is stable over 1.6 yr. Nonperiodic light curves often still show a preferred timescale of variability that is longer for more embedded sources. About half of all sources exhibit redder colors in a fainter state. This is compatible with time-variable absorption toward the YSO. The other half becomes bluer when fainter. These colors can only be explained with significant changes in the structure of the inner disk. No relation between mid-IR variability and stellar effective temperature or X-ray spectrum is found.

YSOVAR: Mid-infrared Variability of Young Stellar Objects and Their Disks in the Cluster IRAS 20050+2720

We present a time-variability study of young stellar objects (YSOs) in the cluster IRAS 20050+2720, performed at 3.6 and 4.5 μm with the Spitzer Space Telescope; this study is part of the Young Stellar Object VARiability (YSOVAR) project. We have collected light curves for 181 cluster members over 60 days. We find a high variability fraction among embedded cluster members of ca. 70%, whereas young stars without a detectable disk display variability less often (in ca. 50% of the cases) and with lower amplitudes. We detect periodic variability for 33 sources with periods primarily in the range of 2–6 days. Practically all embedded periodic sources display additional variability on top of their periodicity. Furthermore, we analyze the slopes of the tracks that our sources span in the color–magnitude diagram (CMD). We find that sources with long variability time scales tend to display CMD slopes that are at least partially influenced by accretion processes, while sources with short variability timescales tend to display extinction-dominated slopes. We find a tentative trend of X-ray detected cluster members to vary on longer timescales than the X-ray undetected members.