Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995–2009: analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control.

METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights.

FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease.

INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems.

High-dose therapy and autologous stem cell transplantation in first relapse for diffuse large B cell lymphoma in the rituximab era:an analysis based on data from the European Blood and Marrow Transplantation Registry

Autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) consolidation remains the treatment of choice for patients with relapsed diffuse large B cell lymphoma. The impact of rituximab combined with chemotherapy in either first- or second-line therapy on the ultimate results of ASCT remains to be determined, however. This study was designed to evaluate the benefit of ASCT in patients achieving a second complete remission after salvage chemotherapy by retrospectively comparing the disease-free survival (DFS) after ASCT for each patient with the duration of the first complete remission (CR1). Between 1990 and 2005, a total of 470 patients who had undergone ASCT and reported to the European Blood and Bone Transplantation Registry with Medical Essential Data Form B information were evaluated. Of these 470 patients, 351 (74%) had not received rituximab before ASCT, and 119 (25%) had received rituximab before ASCT. The median duration of CR1 was 11 months. The median time from diagnosis to ASCT was 24 months. The BEAM protocol was the most frequently used conditioning regimen (67%). After ASCT, the 5-year overall survival was 63% (95% confidence interval, 58%-67%) and 5-year DFS was 48% (95% confidence interval, 43%-53%) for the entire patient population. Statistical analysis showed a significant increase in DFS after ASCT compared with duration of CR1 (median, 51 months versus 11 months; P < .001). This difference was also highly significant for patients with previous exposure to rituximab (median, 10 months versus not reached; P < .001) and for patients who had experienced relapse before 1 year (median, 6 months versus 47 months; P < .001). Our data indicate that ASCT can significantly increase DFS compared with the duration of CR1 in relapsed diffuse large B cell lymphoma and can alter the disease course even in patients with high-risk disease previously treated with rituximab.

Clinical end points for drug treatment trials in BCR-ABL1-negative classic myeloproliferative neoplasms: consensus statements from European LeukemiaNET (ELN) and Internation Working Group-Myeloproliferative Neoplasms Research and Treatment (IWG-MRT)

The discovery of somatic mutations, primarily JAK2V617F and CALR, in classic BCR-ABL1-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) has generated interest in the development of molecularly targeted therapies, whose accurate assessment requires a standardized framework. A working group, comprised of members from European LeukemiaNet (ELN) and International Working Group for MPN Research and Treatment (IWG-MRT), prepared consensus-based recommendations regarding trial design, patient selection and definition of relevant end points. Accordingly, a response able to capture the long-term effect of the drug should be selected as the end point of phase II trials aimed at developing new drugs for MPNs. A time-to-event, such as overall survival, or progression-free survival or both, as co-primary end points, should measure efficacy in phase III studies. New drugs should be tested for preventing disease progression in myelofibrosis patients with early disease in randomized studies, and a time to event, such as progression-free or event-free survival should be the primary end point. Phase III trials aimed at preventing vascular events in polycythemia vera and essential thrombocythemia should be based on a selection of the target population based on new prognostic factors, including JAK2 mutation. In conclusion, we recommended a format for clinical trials in MPNs that facilitates communication between academic investigators, regulatory agencies and drug companies.

Ophthalmic epidemiology in Europe: the “European Eye Epidemiology” (E3) consortium

The European Eye Epidemiology (E3) consortium is a recently formed consortium of 29 groups from 12 European countries. It already comprises 21 population-based studies and 20 other studies (case-control, cases only, randomized trials), providing ophthalmological data on approximately 170,000 European participants. The aim of the consortium is to promote and sustain collaboration and sharing of data and knowledge in the field of ophthalmic epidemiology in Europe, with particular focus on the harmonization of methods for future research, estimation and projection of frequency and impact of visual outcomes in European populations (including temporal trends and European subregions), identification of risk factors and pathways for eye diseases (lifestyle, vascular and metabolic factors, genetics, epigenetics and biomarkers) and development and validation of prediction models for eye diseases. Coordinating these existing data will allow a detailed study of the risk factors and consequences of eye diseases and visual impairment, including study of international geographical variation which is not possible in individual studies. It is expected that collaborative work on these existing data will provide additional knowledge, despite the fact that the risk factors and the methods for collecting them differ somewhat among the participating studies. Most studies also include biobanks of various biological samples, which will enable identification of biomarkers to detect and predict occurrence and progression of eye diseases. This article outlines the rationale of the consortium, its design and presents a summary of the methodology.

Outlier SNP markers reveal fine-scale genetic structuring across European hake populations (Merluccius merluccius)

Shallow population structure is generally reported for most marine fish and explained as a consequence of high dispersal, connectivity and large population size. Targeted gene analyses and more recently genome-wide studies have challenged such view, suggesting that adaptive divergence might occur even when neutral markers provide genetic homogeneity across populations. Here, 381 SNPs located in transcribed regions were used to assess large- and fine-scale population structure in the European hake (Merluccius merluccius), a widely distributed demersal species of high priority for the European fishery. Analysis of 850 individuals from 19 locations across the entire distribution range showed evidence for several outlier loci, with significantly higher resolving power. While 299 putatively neutral SNPs confirmed the genetic break between basins (F(CT) = 0.016) and weak differentiation within basins, outlier loci revealed a dramatic divergence between Atlantic and Mediterranean populations (F(CT) range 0.275-0.705) and fine-scale significant population structure. Outlier loci separated North Sea and Northern Portugal populations from all other Atlantic samples and revealed a strong differentiation among Western, Central and Eastern Mediterranean geographical samples. Significant correlation of allele frequencies at outlier loci with seawater surface temperature and salinity supported the hypothesis that populations might be adapted to local conditions. Such evidence highlights the importance of integrating information from neutral and adaptive evolutionary patterns towards a better assessment of genetic diversity. Accordingly, the generated outlier SNP data could be used for tackling illegal practices in hake fishing and commercialization as well as to develop explicit spatial models for defining management units and stock boundaries.

Investigating clinical predictors of arteriovenous fistula functional patency in a European cohort

Background: Arteriovenous fistula (AVF) failure to mature (FTM) rates contribute to excessive dependence on central venous catheters for haemodialysis. Choosing the most appropriate vascular access site for an individual patient is guided largely by their age, co-morbidities and clinical examination. We investigated the clinical predictors of AVF FTM in a European cohort of patients and applied an existing clinical risk prediction model for AVF FTM to this population.
Methods: A prospective cohort study was designed that included all patients undergoing AVF creation between January 2009 and December 2014 in a single centre (Belfast City Hospital) who had a functional AVF outcome observed by March 2015.
Results: A total of 525 patients had a functional AVF outcome recorded and were included in the FTM analysis. In this cohort, 309 (59%) patients achieved functional AVF patency and 216 (41%) patients had FTM. Female gender [P < 0.001, odds ratio (OR) 2.03 (CI 1.37–3.02)] and lower-arm AVF [P < 0.001, OR 4.07 (CI 2.77–5.92)] were associated with AVF FTM. The Lok model did not predict FTM outcomes based on the associated risk stratification in our population.
Conclusions: In this European study, female gender was associated with twice the risk of AVF FTM and a lower-arm AVF with four times the risk of FTM. The FTM risk prediction model was not found to be discriminative in this population. Clinical risk factors for AVF FTM vary between populations;we would recommend that units investigate their own clinical predictors of FTM to maximize AVF functional patency and ultimately survival in dialysis patients. Clinical predictors of AVF FTM may not be sufficient on their own to improve vascular access functional patency rates.

ANRIL Variants and Aggressive Periodontitis in European and African Populations

Introduction: The chromosome 9p21 locus has been identified as a marker of coronary artery disease. In this locus studies have focused on variations in the ANRIL gene that has also been identified as a strong candidate for association with aggressive periodontitis (AgP).
Objective: To investigate possible associations between gene variants of ANRIL and AgP in European and African populations.
Methods: European AgP cases (n= 213) and age-matched periodontally healthy controls (n= 81) were recruited from centres in the United Kingdom (Belfast, Glasgow, Newcastle and London). African AgP cases (n= 95) and controls (n= 105) were recruited in Khartoum, Sudan. Five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in ANRIL were genotyped using Sequenom and analysed using Haploview with permutation testing to correct for multiple candidates. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated.
Results: In the European subjects there was a significant association between rs518394 (p=0.0013; OR = 1.81, 95%CI 1.26-2.61) and rs1333049 (p=0.0028; OR = 1.75, 95%CI 1.21-2.52) and AgP. These associations remained significant after permutation testing. In addition there was an association between rs 1360590 (p=0.035) and AgP in females. In the African subjects there was a significant association between only one SNP rs1537415 and AgP (p=0.036; OR = 1.59, 95%CI 1.04-2.43), however, this was not significant following permutation testing. There were no significant associations with rs3217992 in either population.
Conclusions: SNP variants in the ANRIL locus were shown to be significantly associated with AgP in a European population and for the first time in an African population confirming this as the best replicated locus for aggressive periodontitis.

Validation of night blindness reports among children and women in a vitamin A deficient population in rural Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: This study validates different definitions of reported night blindness (XN) in a vitamin A deficient African population with no local term for XN. DESIGN: Case-control study with follow-up after treatment. SETTING: Eight primary schools and health centres in rural Tanzania. SUBJECTS: A total of 1214 participants were screened for reported XN and other eye signs of xerophthalmia: 461 children aged 24-71 months, 562 primary school-age children and 191 pregnant or breast-feeding women. All 152 cases of reported XN were selected for the validation study and group matched with 321 controls who did not complain of XN. XN reports were validated against serum retinol concentrations and pupillary dark adaptation measurements in cases and controls. INTERVENTION: All children and women who reported XN or had other signs of active xerophthalmia were treated with vitamin A and followed up 3-4 weeks later. Half of the untreated control group who had their serum retinol examined in the baseline examination were also followed up. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of reported XN was 12.5%. At baseline, mean pupillary threshold (-1.52 vs -1.55 log cd/m(2), P=0.501) and median serum retinol concentrations (0.95 vs 0.93 micromol/l, P=0.734) were not significantly different in cases and controls either overall or in each population group. More restricted case definitions reduced the prevalence of reported XN to 5.5% (P<0.001), but there was still no significant difference between cases and controls although the results were in the expected direction. After treatment, the median serum retinol concentration improved significantly only in the most deficient group, the young children. Dark adaptation improved in all the subgroups but the difference was only significant for young children and primary school-age children when the restricted case definitions were used. CONCLUSIONS: XN reports are a poor indicator of vitamin A deficiency in this population. SPONSORSHIP: Task Force Sight and Life, Basel, Switzerland.

Progression of left atrial volume index in a population at risk for heart failure:a substudy of the STOP-HF (St Vincent's Screening TO Prevent Heart Failure) trial

AIMS: Limited data are available concerning the evolution of the left atrial volume index (LAVI) in pre-heart failure (HF) patients. The aim of this study was to investigate clinical characteristics and serological biomarkers in a cohort with risk factors for HF and evidence of serial atrial dilatation.

METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a prospective substudy within the framework of the STOP-HF cohort (NCT00921960) involving 518 patients with risk factors for HF electively undergoing serial clinical, echocardiographic, and natriuretic peptide assessment. Mean follow-up time between assessments was 15 ± 6 months. 'Progressors' (n = 39) were defined as those with serial LAVI change ≥3.5 mL/m(2) (and baseline LAVI between 20 and 34 mL/m(2)). This cut-off was derived from a calculated reference change value above the biological, analytical, and observer variability of serial LAVI measurement. Multivariate analysis identified significant baseline clinical associates of LAVI progression as increased age, beta-blocker usage, and left ventricular mass index (all P < 0.05). Serological biomarkers were measured in a randomly selected subcohort of 30 'Progressors' matched to 30 'Non-progressors'. For 'Progressors', relative changes in matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP9), tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1 (TIMP1), and the TIMP1/MMP9 ratio, markers of interstitial remodelling, tracked with changes in LAVI over time (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION: Accelerated LAVI increase was found to occur in up to 14% of all pre-HF patients undergoing serial echocardiograms over a relatively short follow-up period. In a randomly selected subcohort of 'Progressors', changes in LAVI were closely linked with alterations in MMP9, TIMP1, and the ratio of these enzymes, a potential aid in highlighting this at-risk group.

Migrant identities in a new immigrant destination: revealing the limitations of the ‘hard working’ migrant identity

Migrant labour has transformed local economies in many places, often helping to reverse long-term decline. The emergence of new immigrant destinations (NID) globally brings mixed opportunities for the individuals involved. This article uses empirical evidence, focusing on the workplace, to show the performance, construction and significance of migrant identity. By using social identity theory to examine what it means to be a ‘migrant’, it follows from Goffman’s overarching concern with social interactions and his promotion of microanalysis as analytical lenses.
The article reveals the ambiguity of the label ‘migrant’. It shows how the external application or internal enactment of migrant identities bestow particular status that represents an asset or an obstacle to integration. It can mean ‘hard working’, ‘less deserving’ and ‘exploitable’ and it also denotes ‘lazy’ and individuals. While some individuals assume the hard working migrant and ‘exploitable’ identity in certain circumstances because of the benefits that it brings, this status can also cause high levels of dissatisfaction and distress among migrants. The research shows how the creation of a migrant identity limits the structures and networks from which migrants may draw resources and in so doing curtails the possibilities for social change due to migration.

Future trends in cystic fibrosis demography in 34 European countries

Median survival has increased in people with cystic fibrosis (CF) during the past six decades, which has led to an increased number of adults with CF. The future impact of changes in CF demographics has not been evaluated. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of children and adults with CF in 34 European countries by 2025. Data were obtained from the European Cystic Fibrosis Society Patient Registry. Population forecasts were performed for countries that have extensive CF population coverage and at least 4 years of longitudinal data by modelling future entering and exiting flows in registry cohorts. For the other countries, population projections were performed based on assumptions from knowledge of current CF epidemiology. Western European countries' forecasts indicate that an increase in the overall number of CF patients by 2025, by approximately 50%, corresponds to an increase by 20% and by 75% in children and adults, respectively. In Eastern European countries the projections suggest a predominant increase in the CF child population, although the CF adult population would also increase.It was concluded that a large increase in the adult CF population is expected in the next decade. A significant increase in adult CF services throughout Europe is urgently required.

Troponin I and cardiovascular risk prediction in the general population: the BiomarCaRE consortium

AIMS: Our aims were to evaluate the distribution of troponin I concentrations in population cohorts across Europe, to characterize the association with cardiovascular outcomes, to determine the predictive value beyond the variables used in the ESC SCORE, to test a potentially clinically relevant cut-off value, and to evaluate the improved eligibility for statin therapy based on elevated troponin I concentrations retrospectively.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project, we analysed individual level data from 10 prospective population-based studies including 74 738 participants. We investigated the value of adding troponin I levels to conventional risk factors for prediction of cardiovascular disease by calculating measures of discrimination (C-index) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). We further tested the clinical implication of statin therapy based on troponin concentration in 12 956 individuals free of cardiovascular disease in the JUPITER study. Troponin I remained an independent predictor with a hazard ratio of 1.37 for cardiovascular mortality, 1.23 for cardiovascular disease, and 1.24 for total mortality. The addition of troponin I information to a prognostic model for cardiovascular death constructed of ESC SCORE variables increased the C-index discrimination measure by 0.007 and yielded an NRI of 0.048, whereas the addition to prognostic models for cardiovascular disease and total mortality led to lesser C-index discrimination and NRI increment. In individuals above 6 ng/L of troponin I, a concentration near the upper quintile in BiomarCaRE (5.9 ng/L) and JUPITER (5.8 ng/L), rosuvastatin therapy resulted in higher absolute risk reduction compared with individuals <6 ng/L of troponin I, whereas the relative risk reduction was similar.

CONCLUSION: In individuals free of cardiovascular disease, the addition of troponin I to variables of established risk score improves prediction of cardiovascular death and cardiovascular disease.

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor antidepressant use in first trimester pregnancy and risk of specific congenital anomalies: a European register-based study

Evidence of an association between early pregnancy exposure to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) and congenital heart defects (CHD) has contributed to recommendations to weigh benefits and risks carefully. The objective of this study was to determine the specificity of association between first trimester exposure to SSRIs and specific CHD and other congenital anomalies (CA) associated with SSRI exposure in the literature (signals). A population-based case-malformed control study was conducted in 12 EUROCAT CA registries covering 2.1 million births 1995-2009 including livebirths, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestation and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. Babies/fetuses with specific CHD (n = 12,876) and non-CHD signal CA (n = 13,024), were compared with malformed controls whose diagnosed CA have not been associated with SSRI in the literature (n = 17,083). SSRI exposure in first trimester pregnancy was associated with CHD overall (OR adjusted for registry 1.41, 95% CI 1.07-1.86, fluoxetine adjOR 1.43 95% CI 0.85-2.40, paroxetine adjOR 1.53, 95% CI 0.91-2.58) and with severe CHD (adjOR 1.56, 95% CI 1.02-2.39), particularly Tetralogy of Fallot (adjOR 3.16, 95% CI 1.52-6.58) and Ebstein's anomaly (adjOR 8.23, 95% CI 2.92-23.16). Significant associations with SSRI exposure were also found for ano-rectal atresia/stenosis (adjOR 2.46, 95% CI 1.06-5.68), gastroschisis (adjOR 2.42, 95% CI 1.10-5.29), renal dysplasia (adjOR 3.01, 95% CI 1.61-5.61), and clubfoot (adjOR 2.41, 95% CI 1.59-3.65). These data support a teratogenic effect of SSRIs specific to certain anomalies, but cannot exclude confounding by indication or associated factors.