Late-Glacial and early Holocene marine 14C reservoir ages off North Iceland (16-9 cal kyr BP)

Tephrochronological age models and 48 14C age determinations on molluscs and foraminifera (planktonic and benthic) are applied for the calculation of marine 14C reservoir age variability during a time period covering the Heinrich event H1 to early Holocene (16–9 cal kyr BP). Our data source consists of four high-resolution marine sediment cores (HM107-04, HM107-05, MD99-2271, MD99-2275) from the North Icelandic shelf. The marine reservoir age (ΔR) is found to be extremely variable, ranging from 385 to 1065 14C years. Extreme ΔR values occur at the end of H1, with values around 1000 14C years (~15 cal kyr BP), probably due to reduced northward flow of well-ventilated subtropical surface waters and a southward expansion of polar waters, as well as an expansion of sea ice limiting air-sea gas exchange. With the onset of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, the ΔR values decrease towards 0 14C years suggesting a more vigorous North Atlantic Current and an active meridional overturning circulation system. During the Younger Dryas stadial, ΔR values are consistently around 700 14C years suggesting e renewed expansion of polar waters and a weakened meridional overtuning circulation. Interestingly, ΔR values remain high (~200 14C years) at the onset of the Holocene suggesting continued high influence of polar waters. Subsequently, ΔR values rapidly decrease to ~¬ 250 14C years around 11 cal kyr BP, indicating increased air-sea CO2 exchange with the coeval atmosphere. The ΔR values average around 0 14C years from around 10.5 to 9.0 cal kyr BP.

Validating the accuracy of a model to predict the onset of myopia in children.

PURPOSE: To assess the sensitivity and specificity of models predicting myopia onset among ethnically Chinese children. METHODS: Visual acuity, height, weight, biometry (A-scan, keratometry), and refractive error were assessed at baseline and 3 years later using the same equipment and protocol in primary schools in Xiamen (China) and Singapore. A regression model predicting the onset of myopia < -0.75 diopters (D) after 3 years in either eye among Xiamen children was validated with Singapore data. RESULTS: Baseline data were collected from 236 Xiamen children (mean age, 7.82 ± 0.63 years) and from 1979 predominantly Chinese children in Singapore (7.83 ± 0.84 years). Singapore children were significantly taller and heavier, and had more myopia (31.4% vs. 6.36% < -0.75 D in either eye, P < 0.001) and longer mean axial length. Three-year follow-up was available for 80.0% of Xiamen children and 83.1% in Singapore. For Xiamen, the area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) in a model including ocular biometry, height, weight, and presenting visual acuity was 0.974 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.945-0.997). In Singapore, the same model achieved sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of 0.844, 0.650, and 0.669, with an AUC of 0.815 (95% CI, 0.791-0.839). CONCLUSIONS: Accuracy in predicting myopia onset based on simple measurements may be sufficient to make targeted early intervention practical in settings such as Singapore with high myopia prevalence. Models based on cohorts with a greater prevalence of high myopia than that in Xiamen could be used to assess accuracy of models predicting more severe forms of myopia.