Cryptic introgression into the Kidney saxifrage (Saxifraga hirsuta) from its more abundant sympatric congener Saxifraga spathularis, and the potential risk of genetic assimilation

Background and Aims: Although hybridization can play a positive role in plant evolution, it has been shown that excessive unidirectional hybridization can result in replacement of a species’ gene pool, and even the extinction ofrare species via genetic assimilation. This study examines levels of introgression between the common Saxifraga spathularis and its rarer congener S. hirsuta, which have been observed to hybridize in the wild where they occursympatrically. 
Methods: Seven species-specific single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were analysed in 1025 plants representing both species and their hybrid, S. polita, from 29 sites across their ranges in Ireland. In addition, species distributionmodelling was carried out to determine whether the relative abundance of the two parental species is likely to change under future climate scenarios. 
Key Results: Saxifraga spathularis individuals tended to be genetically pure, exhibiting little or no introgression from S. hirsuta, but significant levels of introgression of S. spathularis alleles into S. hirsuta were observed, indicatingthat populations exhibiting S. hirsuta morphology are more like a hybrid swarm, consisting of backcrosses and F2s. Populations of the hybrid, S. polita, were generally comprised of F1s or F2s, with some evidence of backcrossing. Species distribution modelling under projected future climate scenarios indicated an increase in suitable habitats for both parental species.
Conclusions: Levels of introgression observed in this study in both S. spathularis and S. hirsuta would appear to be correlated with the relative abundance of the species. Significant introgression of S. spathularis alleles was detectedin the majority of the S. hirsuta populations analysed and, consequently, ongoing introgression would appear to represent a threat to the genetic integrity of S. hirsuta, particularly in areas where the species exists sympatricallywith its congener and where it is greatly outnumbered.

Presence of cave bears in western Austria before the onset of the Last Glacial Maximum: new radiocarbon dates and palaeoclimatic considerations

Tischoferhohle and Pendling-Barenhohle near Kufstein, Tyrol, are among the only locations where remains of cave bear, Ursus spelaeus-group, were found in the western part of Austria. One sample from each site was radiocarbon-dated four decades ago to ca. 28 C-14 ka BP. Here we report that attempts to date additional samples from Pendling-Barenhohle have failed due to the lack of collagen, casting doubts on the validity of the original measurement. We also unsuccessfully tried to date flowstone clasts embedded in the bone-bearing sediment to provide maximum constraints on the age of this sediment. Ten cave bear bones from Tischoferhohle showing good collagen preservation were radiocarbon-dated to 31.1-39.9 C-14 ka BP, again pointing towards an age underestimation by the original radiocarbon-dated sample from this site. These new dates from Tischoferhohle are therefore currently the only reliable cave bear dates in western Austria and constrain the interval of cave occupation to 44.3-33.5 cal ka BP. We re-calibrate and re-evaluate dates of alpine cave bear samples in the context of available palaeoclimate information from the greater alpine region covering the transition into the Last Glacial Maximum, eventually leading to the demise of this megafauna.

Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the Order Lagomorpha

Climate change during the last five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.

A Stubbornly Large Mass of Cold Dust in the Ejecta of Supernova 1987A

We present new Herschel photometric and spectroscopic observations of Supernova 1987A, carried out in 2012. Our dedicated photometric measurements provide new 70 mu m data and improved imaging quality at 100 and 160 mu m compared to previous observations in 2010. Our Herschel spectra show only weak CO line emission, and provide an upper limit for the 63 mu m [O-I] line flux, eliminating the possibility that line contaminations distort the previously estimated dustmass. The far-infrared spectral energy distribution (SED) is well fitted by thermal emission from cold dust. The newly measured 70 mu m flux constrains the dust temperature, limiting it to nearly a single temperature. The far-infrared emission can be fitted by 0.5 +/- 0.1M(circle dot) of amorphous carbon, about a factor of two larger than the current nucleosynthetic mass prediction for carbon. The observation of SiO molecules at early and late phases suggests that silicates may also have formed and we could fit the SED with a combination of 0.3M(circle dot) of amorphous carbon and 0.5M(circle dot) of silicates, totalling 0.8M(circle dot) of dust. Our analysis thus supports the presence of a large dust reservoir in the ejecta of SN 1987A. The inferred dust mass suggests that supernovae can be an important source of dust in the interstellar medium, from local to high-redshift galaxies.

Broadband XUV polarimetry of high harmonics from plasma surfaces using multiple Fresnel reflections

High-harmonic generation (HHG) by nonlinear interaction of intense laser pulses with gases or plasma surfaces is the most prominent way of creating highly coherent extreme ultraviolet (EUV/XUV) pulses. In the last years, several scientific applications have been found which require the measurement of the polarization of the harmonic radiation. We present a broadband XUV polarimeter based on multiple Fresnel reflections providing an extinction rate of 5-25 for 17-45 nm which is particularly suited for surface harmonics. The device has first been tested at a gas harmonic source providing linearly polarized XUV radiation. In a further experiment using HHG from plasma surfaces, the XUV polarimeter allowed a polarization measurement of high harmonic radiation from plasma surfaces for the first time which reveals a linear polarization state as predicted for our generation parameters. The generation and control of intense polarized XUV pulses-together with the availability of broadband polarizers in the XUV-open the way for a series of new experiments. For instance, dichroism in the XUV, elliptically polarized harmonics from aligned molecules, or the selection rules of relativistic surface harmonics can be studied with the broadband XUV polarimeter.

Slopes of Avian Species-Area Relationships, Human Population Density, and Environmental Factors

There is increasing interest in how humans influence spatial patterns in biodiversity. One of the most frequently noted and marked of these patterns is the increase in species richness with area, the species-area relationship (SAR). SARs are used for a number of conservation purposes, including predicting extinction rates, setting conservation targets, and identifying biodiversity hotspots. Such applications can be improved by a detailed understanding of the factors promoting spatial variation in the slope of SARs, which is currently the subject of a vigorous debate. Moreover, very few studies have considered the anthropogenic influences on the slopes of SARs; this is particularly surprising given that in much of the world areas with high human population density are typically those with a high number of species, which generates conservation conflicts. Here we determine correlates of spatial variation in the slopes of species-area relationships, using the British avifauna as a case study. Whilst we focus on human population density, a widely used index of human activities, we also take into account (1) the rate of increase in habitat heterogeneity with increasing area, which is frequently proposed to drive SARs, (2) environmental energy availability, which may influence SARs by affecting species occupancy patterns, and (3) species richness. We consider environmental variables measured at both local (10 km x 10 km) and regional (290 km x 290 km) spatial grains, but find that the former consistently provides a better fit to the data. In our case study, the effect of species richness on the slope SARs appears to be scale dependent, being negative at local scales but positive at regional scales. In univariate tests, the slope of the SAR correlates negatively with human population density and environmental energy availability, and positively with the rate of increase in habitat heterogeneity. We conducted two sets of multiple regression analyses, with and without species richness as a predictor. When species richness is included it exerts a dominant effect, but when it is excluded temperature has the dominant effect on the slope of the SAR, and the effects of other predictors are marginal.

The imprint of the geographical, evolutionary and ecological context on species-area relationships

Species-area relationships (SAR) are fundamental in the understanding of biodiversity patterns and of critical importance for predicting species extinction risk worldwide. Despite the enormous attention given to SAR in the form of many individual analyses, little attempt has been made to synthesize these studies. We conducted a quantitative meta-analysis of 794 SAR, comprising a wide span of organisms, habitats and locations. We identified factors reflecting both pattern-based and dynamic approaches to SAR and tested whether these factors leave significant imprints on the slope and strength of SAR. Our analysis revealed that SAR are significantly affected by variables characterizing the sampling scheme, the spatial scale, and the types of organisms or habitats involved. We found that steeper SAR are generated at lower latitudes and by larger organisms. SAR varied significantly between nested and independent sampling schemes and between major ecosystem types, but not generally between the terrestrial and the aquatic realm. Both the fit and the slope of the SAR were scale-dependent. We conclude that factors dynamically regulating species richness at different spatial scales strongly affect the shape of SAR. We highlight important consequences of this systematic variation in SAR for ecological theory, conservation management and extinction risk predictions.

Uses and abuses of fractal methodology in ecology

Fractals have found widespread application in a range of scientific fields, including ecology. This rapid growth has produced substantial new insights, but has also spawned confusion and a host of methodological problems. In this paper, we review the value of fractal methods, in particular for applications to spatial ecology, and outline potential pitfalls. Methods for measuring fractals in nature and generating fractal patterns for use in modelling are surveyed. We stress the limitations and the strengths of fractal models. Strictly speaking, no ecological pattern can be truly fractal, but fractal methods may nonetheless provide the most efficient tool available for describing and predicting ecological patterns at multiple scales.

Ecological dynamics of extinct species in empty habitat networks. 1. The role of habitat pattern and quantity, stochasticity and dispersal

We examined a remnant host plant (Primula veris L.) habitat network that was last inhabited by the rare butterfly Hamearis lucina L. in north Wales in 1943, to assess the relative contribution of several spatial parameters to its regional extinction. We first examined relationships between P. veris characteristics and H. lucina eggs in surviving H. lucina populations, and used these to predict the suitability and potential carrying capacity of the habitat network in north Wales. This resulted in an estimate of roughly 4500 eggs (ca 227 adults). We developed a discrete space, discrete time metapopulation model to evaluate the relative contribution of dispersal distance, habitat and environmental stochasticity as possible causes of extinction. We simulated the potential persistence of the butterfly in the current network as well as in three artificial (historical and present) habitat networks that differed in the quantity (current and X3) and fragmentation of the habitat (current and aggregated). We identified that reduced habitat quantity and increased isolation would have increased the probability of regional extinction, in conjunction with environmental stochasticity and H. lucina's dispersal distance. This general trend did not change in a qualitative manner when we modified the ability of dispersing females to stay in, and find suitable habitats (by changing the size of the grid cells used in the model). Contrary to most metapopulation model predictions, system persistence declined with increasing migration rate, suggesting that the mortality of migrating individuals in fragmented landscapes may pose significant risks to system-wide persistence. Based on model predictions for the present landscape we argue that a major programme of habitat restoration would be required for a re-established metapopulation to persist for > 100 years.

Ecological dynamics of extinct species in empty habitat networks. 2. The role of host plant dynamics

This paper explores the relative effects of host plant dynamics and butterfly-related parameters on butterfly persistence. It considers an empty habitat network where a rare butterfly (Cupido minimus) became extinct in 1939 in part of its historical range in north Wales, UK. Surviving populations of the butterfly in southern Britain were visited to assess use of its host plant (Anthyllis vulneraria) in order to calibrate habitat suitability and carrying capacity in the empty network in north Wales. These data were used to deduce that only a portion ( similar to 19%) of the host plant network from north Wales was likely to be highly suitable for oviposition. Nonetheless, roughly 65,460 eggs (3273 adult equivalents) could be expected to be laid in north Wales, were the empty network to be populated at the same levels as observed on comparable plants in surviving populations elsewhere. Simulated metapopulations of C. minimus in the empty network revealed that time to extinction and patch occupancy were significantly influenced by carrying capacity, butterfly mean dispersal distance and environmental stochasticity, although for most reasonable parameter values, the model system persisted. Simulation outputs differed greatly when host plant dynamics was incorporated into the modelled butterfly dynamics. Cupido minimus usually went extinct when host plant were at low densities. In these simulations host plant dynamics appeared to be the most important determinant of the butterfly's regional extirpation. Modelling the outcome of a reintroduction programme to C. minimus variation at high quality locations, revealed that 65% of systems survived at least 100 years. Given the current amount of resources of the north Wales landscape, the persistence of C. minimus under a realistic reintroduction programme has a good chance of being successful, if carried out in conjunction with a host plant management programme.

A metapopulation model of species boundaries

The majority, if not all, species have a limited geographic range bounded by a distribution edge. Violent ecotones such as sea coasts clearly produce edges for many species; however such ecotones, while sufficient for the formation of an edge, are not always necessary. We demonstrate this by simulation in discrete time of a spatially structured finite size metapopulation subjected to a spatial gradient in per-unit-time population extinction probability together with spatially structured dispersal and recolonisation. We find that relatively sharp edges separating a homeland or main geographical range from an outland or zone of relatively sparse and ephemeral colonisation can form in gradual environmental gradients. The form and placing of the edge is an emergent property of the metapopulation dynamics. The sharpness of the edge declines with increasing dispersal distance, and is dependent on the relative scales of dispersal distance and gradient length. The space over which the edge develops is short relative to the potential species range. The edge is robust against changes in both the shape of the environmental gradient and to a lesser extent to alterations in the kind of dispersal operating. Persistence times in the absence of environmental gradients are virtually independent of the shape of the dispersal function describing migration. The common finding of bell shaped population density distributions across geographic ranges may occur without the strict necessity of a niche mediated response to a spatially autocorrelated environment.

The Carnian Humid Episode of the late Triassic: A Review

From 1989 to 1994 a series of papers outlined evidence for a brief episode of climate change from arid to humid, and then back to arid, during the Carnian Stage of the late Triassic. This time of climate change was compared to marine and terrestrial biotic changes, mainly extinction and then radiation of flora and fauna. Subsequently termed, albeit incorrectly, the Carnian Pluvial Event (CPE) by successive authors, interest in this episode of climatic change has increased steadily, with new evidence being published as well as several challenges to the theory. The exact nature of this humid episode, whether reflecting widespread precipitation or more local effects, as well as its ultimate cause remains equivocal. Bed-by-bed sampling of the Carnian in the Southern Alps (Dolomites), shows the episode began with a negative carbon isotope excursion that lasted for only part of one ammonoid zone (A. austriacum). However, that the Carnian Humid Episode represents a significantly longer period, both environmentally and biotically, is irrefutable. The evidence is strongest in the European, Middle East, Himalayan, North American and Japanese successions, but not always so clear in South America, Antarctica and Australia. The eruption of the Wrangellia Large Igneous Province and global warming (causing increased evaporation in the Tethyan and Panthalassic oceans) are suggested as causes for the humid episode.

Properties of extragalactic dust inferred from linear polarimetry of Type Ia Supernovae

Aims
The aim of this paper is twofold: 1) to investigate the properties of extragalactic dust and compare them to what is seen in the Galaxy; 2) to address in an independent way the problem of the anomalous extinction curves reported for reddened Type Ia Supernovae (SN) in connection to the environments in which they explode. 

Methods
The properties of the dust are derived from the wavelength dependence of the continuum polarization observed in four reddened Type Ia SN: 1986G, 2006X, 2008fp, and 2014J. The method is based on the observed fact that Type Ia SN have a negligible intrinsic continuum polarization. This and their large luminosity makes them ideal tools to probe the dust properties in extragalactic environments.

Results
All four objects are characterized by exceptionally low total-to-selective absorption ratios (R<inf>V</inf>) and display an anomalous interstellar polarization law, characterized by very blue polarization peaks. In all cases the polarization position angle is well aligned with the local spiral structure. While SN 1986G is compatible with the most extreme cases of interstellar polarization known in the Galaxy, SN 2006X, 2008fp, and 2014J show unprecedented behaviours. The observed deviations do not appear to be connected to selection effects related to the relatively large amounts of reddening characterizing the objects in the sample.

Conclusions
The dust responsible for the polarization of these four SN is most likely of interstellar nature. The polarization properties can be interpreted in terms of a significantly enhanced abundance of small grains. The anomalous behaviour is apparently associated with the properties of the galactic environment in which the SN explode, rather than with the progenitor system from which they originate. For the extreme case of SN 2014J, we cannot exclude the contribution of light scattered by local material; however, the observed polarization properties require an ad hoc geometrical dust distribution.

SN 2009ib: a Type II-P supernova with an unusually long plateau

We present optical and near-infrared photometry and spectroscopy of SN 2009ib, a Type II-P supernova in NGC 1559. This object has moderate brightness, similar to those of the intermediate-luminosity SNe 2008in and 2009N. Its plateau phase is unusually long, lasting for about 130 d after explosion. The spectra are similar to those of the subluminous SN 2002gd, with moderate expansion velocities. We estimate the Ni-56 mass produced as 0.046 +/- A 0.015 M-aS (TM). We determine the distance to SN 2009ib using both the expanding photosphere method (EPM) and the standard candle method. We also apply EPM to SN 1986L, a Type II-P SN that exploded in the same galaxy. Combining the results of different methods, we conclude the distance to NGC 1559 as D = 19.8 +/- A 3.0 Mpc. We examine archival, pre-explosion images of the field taken with the Hubble Space Telescope, and find a faint source at the position of the SN, which has a yellow colour [(V - I)(0) = 0.85 mag]. Assuming it is a single star, we estimate its initial mass as M-ZAMS = 20 M-aS (TM). We also examine the possibility, that instead of the yellow source the progenitor of SN 2009ib is a red supergiant star too faint to be detected. In this case, we estimate the upper limit for the initial zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass of the progenitor to be similar to 14-17 M-aS (TM). In addition, we infer the physical properties of the progenitor at the explosion via hydrodynamical modelling of the observables, and estimate the total energy as similar to 0.55 x 10(51) erg, the pre-explosion radius as similar to 400 R-aS (TM), and the ejected envelope mass as similar to 15 M-aS (TM), which implies that the mass of the progenitor before explosion was similar to 16.5-17 M-aS (TM).

Optical and near-infrared observations of SN 2011dh - The first 100 days

We present optical and near-infrared (NIR) photometry and spectroscopy of the Type IIb supernova (SN) 2011dh for the first 100 days. We complement our extensive dataset with Swift ultra-violet (UV) and Spitzer mid-infrared (MIR) data to build a UV to MIR bolometric lightcurve using both photometric and spectroscopic data. Hydrodynamical modelling of the SN based on this bolometric lightcurve have been presented in Bersten et al. (2012, ApJ, 757, 31). We find that the absorption minimum for the hydrogen lines is never seen below ~11 000 km s-1 but approaches this value as the lines get weaker. This suggests that the interface between the helium core and hydrogen rich envelope is located near this velocity in agreement with the Bersten et al. (2012) He4R270 ejecta model. Spectral modelling of the hydrogen lines using this ejecta model supports the conclusion and we find a hydrogen mass of 0.01-0.04 M⊙ to be consistent with the observed spectral evolution. We estimate that the photosphere reaches the helium core at 5-7 days whereas the helium lines appear between ~10 and ~15 days, close to the photosphere and then move outward in velocity until ~40 days. This suggests that increasing non-thermal excitation due to decreasing optical depth for the γ-rays is driving the early evolution of these lines. The Spitzer 4.5 μm band shows a significant flux excess, which we attribute to CO fundamental band emission or a thermal dust echo although further work using late time data is needed. Thedistance and in particular the extinction, where we use spectral modelling to put further constraints, is discussed in some detail as well as the sensitivity of the hydrodynamical modelling to errors in these quantities. We also provide and discuss pre- and post-explosion observations of the SN site which shows a reduction by ~75 percent in flux at the position of the yellow supergiant coincident with SN 2011dh. The B, V and r band decline rates of 0.0073, 0.0090 and 0.0053 mag day-1 respectively are consistent with the remaining flux being emitted by the SN. Hence we find that the star was indeed the progenitor of SN 2011dh as previously suggested by Maund et al. (2011, ApJ, 739, L37) and which is also consistent with the results from the hydrodynamical modelling. Figures 2, 3, Tables 3-10, and Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.orgThe photometric tables are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/562/A17