Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: Are major surprises inevitable?

Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.

Restoration of adipose function in obese, glucose-tolerant men following pioglitazone treatment is associated with CCAAT enhancer-binding protein β upregulation

Obese AT (adipose tissue) exhibits increased macrophage number. Pro-inflammatory CD16+ peripheral monocyte numbers are also reported to increase with obesity. The present study was undertaken to simultaneously investigate obesity-associated changes in CD16+ monocytes and ATMs (AT macrophages). In addition, a pilot randomized placebo controlled trial using the PPAR (peroxisome-proliferator-activated receptor) agonists, pioglitazone and fenofibrate was performed to determine their effects on CD14+/CD16+ monocytes, ATM and cardiometabolic and adipose dysfunction indices. Obese glucose-tolerant men (n=28) were randomized to placebo, pioglitazone (30 mg/day) and fenofibrate (160 mg/day) for 12 weeks. A blood sample was taken to assess levels of serum inflammatory markers and circulating CD14+/CD16+ monocyte levels via flow cytometry. A subcutaneous AT biopsy was performed to determine adipocyte cell surface and ATM number, the latter was determined via assessment of CD68 expression by IHC (immunohistochemistry) and real-time PCR. Subcutaneous AT mRNA expression of CEBPß (CCAAT enhancer-binding protein ß), SREBP1c (sterol-regulatory-element-binding protein 1c), PPAR?2, IRS-1 (insulin receptor substrate-1), GLUT4 (glucose transporter type 4) and TNFa (tumour necrosis factor a) were also assessed. Comparisons were made between obese and lean controls (n=16) at baseline, and pre- and post-PPAR agonist treatment. Obese individuals had significantly increased adipocyte cell surface, percentage CD14+/CD16+ monocyte numbers and ATM number (all P=0.0001). Additionally, serum TNF-a levels were significantly elevated (P=0.017) and adiponectin levels reduced (total: P=0.0001; high: P=0.022) with obesity. ATM number and percentage of CD14+/CD16+ monocytes correlated significantly (P=0.05). Pioglitazone improved adiponectin levels significantly (P=0.0001), and resulted in the further significant enlargement of adipocytes (P=0.05), without effect on the percentage CD14+/CD16+ or ATM number. Pioglitazone treatment also significantly increased subcutaneous AT expression of CEBPß mRNA. The finding that improvements in obesity-associated insulin resistance following pioglitazone were associated with increased adipocyte cell surface and systemic adiponectin levels, supports the centrality of AT to the cardiometabolic derangement underlying the development of T2D (Type 2 diabetes) and CVD (cardiovascular disease).

Ecological coherence in marine reserve network design: an empirical evaluation of sequential site selection using genetic structure

Ecological coherence is a multifaceted conservation objective that includes some potentially conflicting concepts. These concepts include the extent to which the network maximises diversity (including genetic diversity) and the extent to which protected areas interact with non-reserve locations. To examine the consequences of different selection criteria, the preferred location to complement protected sites was examined using samples taken from four locations around each of two marine protected areas: Strangford Lough and Lough Hyne, Ireland. Three different measures of genetic distance were used: FST, Dest and a measure of allelic dissimilarity, along with a direct assessment of the total number of alleles in different candidate networks. Standardized site scores were used for comparisons across methods and selection criteria. The average score for Castlehaven, a site relatively close to Lough Hyne, was highest, implying that this site would capture the most genetic diversity while ensuring highest degree of interaction between protected and unprotected sites. Patterns around Strangford Lough were more ambiguous, potentially reflecting the weaker genetic structure around this protected area in comparison to Lough Hyne. Similar patterns were found across species with different dispersal capacities, indicating that methods based on genetic distance could be used to help maximise ecological coherence in reserve networks. ⺠Ecological coherence is a key component of marine protected area network design. ⺠Coherence contains a number of competing concepts. ⺠Genetic information from field populations can help guide assessments of coherence. ⺠Average choice across different concepts of coherence was consistent among species. ⺠Measures can be combined to compare the coherence of different network designs.

Body size in ecological networks

Body size determines a host of species traits that can affect the structure and dynamics of food webs, and other ecological networks, across multiple scales of organization. Measuring body size provides a relatively simple means of encapsulating and condensing a large amount of the biological information embedded within an ecological network. Recently, important advances have been made by incorporating body size into theoretical models that explore food web stability, the patterning of energy fluxes, and responses to perturbations. Because metabolic constraints underpin bodysize scaling relationships, metabolic theory offers a potentially useful new framework within which to develop novel models to describe the structure and functioning of ecological networks and to assess the probable consequences of biodiversity change.