Range expansion in an invasive small mammal: influence of life-history and habitat quality.

Invasive species pose a major threat to biodiversity but provide an opportunity to describe the processes that lead to changes in a species’ range. The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is an invasive rodent that was introduced to Ireland in the early twentieth century. Given its continuing range expansion, the substantial empirical data on its spread thus far, and the absence of any eradication program, the bank vole in Ireland represents a unique model system for studying the mechanisms influencing the rate of range expansion in invasive small mammals. We described the invasion using a reaction–diffusion model informed by empirical data on life history traits and demographic parameters. We subsequently modelled the processes involved in its range expansion using a rule-based spatially explicit simulation. Habitat suitability interacted with density-dependent parameters to influence dispersal, most notably the density at which local populations started to donate emigrating individuals, the number of dispersing individuals and the direction of dispersal. Whilst local habitat variability influenced the rate of spread, on a larger scale the invasion resembled a simple reaction–diffusion process. Our results suggest a Type 1 range expansion where the rate of expansion is generally constant over time, but with some evidence for a lag period following introduction. We demonstrate that a two-parameter empirical model and a rule-based spatially explicit simulation are sufficient to accurately describe the invasion history of a species that exhibits a complex, density-dependent pattern of dispersal.

Transient Heat Conduction of Variable Stiffness Composite Laminate

Recent research on Variable Stiffness (VS) laminates, which are constructed by steering the fiber orientation as a spatial function of location, have shown to improve laminate performance under mechanical loads. Two distinct cases of stiffness variation can be achieved either by variation of the fiber orientation in the direction of the global x-axis, or perpendicular to it. In the present paper, thermal analysis of a VS laminate is performed to study the effect of steering fibers on transient heat conduction under uniform heat flux using finite element method. The goal of the present paper is a parametric study of the effect of variable stiffness properties on transient response including time to reach steady state and temperature profile. Also, stress resultants and maximum stress location are investigated under different boundary conditions. A FEM algorithm is applied to exactly incorporate the boundary conditions for stress resultant analysis.

Transient Heat Conduction of Variable Stiffness Composite Laminate

Recent research on Variable Stiffness (VS) laminates, which are constructed by steering the fiber orientation as a spatial function of location, have shown to improve laminate performance under mechanical loads. Two distinct cases of stiffness variation can be achieved either by variation of the fiber orientation in the direction of the global x-axis, or perpendicular to it. In the present paper, thermal analysis of VS laminate is performed to study the effect of steering fibers on transient heat conduction under uniform heat flux using finite element method. The goal of the present paper is a parametric study of the
effect of variable stiffness properties on transient response including time to reach steady state and temperature profile. Also, stress resultants and maximum stress location are investigated under different boundary conditions. A FEM algorithm is applied to exactly incorporate the boundary conditions.

Stochastic particle acceleration in the lobes of giant radio galaxies

We investigate the acceleration of particles by Alfven waves via the second-order Fermi process in the lobes of giant radio galaxies. Such sites are candidates for the accelerators of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECR). We focus on the nearby Fanaroff-Riley type I radio galaxy Centaurus A. This is motivated by the coincidence of its position with the arrival direction of several of the highest energy Auger events. The conditions necessary for consistency with the acceleration time-scales predicted by quasi-linear theory are reviewed. Test particle calculations are performed in fields which guarantee electric fields with no component parallel to the local magnetic field. The results of quasi-linear theory are, to an order of magnitude, found to be accurate at low turbulence levels for non-relativistic Alfven waves and at both low and high turbulence levels in the mildly relativistic case. We conclude that for pure stochastic acceleration via Alfven waves to be plausible as the generator of UHECR in Cen A, the baryon number density would need to be several orders of magnitude below currently held upper limits.

How Prepared are UK Medical Graduates for Practice? Final report from a programme of research commissioned by the General Medical Council

This programme of research aimed to understand the extent to which current UK medical graduates are prepared for practice. Commissioned by the General Medical Council, we conducted: (1) A Rapid Review of the literature between 2009 and 2013; (2) narrative interviews with a range of stakeholders; and (3) longitudinal audio-diaries with Foundation Year 1 doctors. The Rapid Review (RR) resulted in data from 81 manuscripts being extracted and mapped against a coding framework (including outcomes from Tomorrow's Doctors (2009) (TD09)). A narrative synthesis of the data was undertaken. Narrative interviews were conducted with 185 participants from 8 stakeholder groups: F1 trainees, newly registered trainee doctors, clinical educators, undergraduate and postgraduate deans and foundation programme directors, other healthcare professionals, employers, policy and government and patient and public representatives. Longitudinal audio-diaries were recorded by 26 F1 trainees over 4 months. The data were analysed thematically and mapped against TD09. Together these data shed light onto how preparedness for practice is conceptualised, measured, how prepared UK medical graduates are for practice, the effectiveness of transition interventions and the currently debated issue of bringing full registration forward to align with medical students’ graduation. Preparedness for practice was conceptualised as both a long- and short-term venture that included personal readiness as well as knowledge, skills and attitudes. It has mainly been researched using self-report measures of generalised incidents that have been shown to be problematic. In terms of transition interventions: assistantships were found to be valuable and efficacious for proactive students as team members, shadowing is effective when undertaken close to employment/setting of F1 post and induction is generally effective but of inconsistent quality. The August transition was highlighted in our interview and audio-diary data where F1s felt unprepared, particularly for the step-change in responsibility, workload, degree of multitasking and understanding where to go for help. Evidence of preparedness for specific tasks, skills and knowledge was contradictory: trainees are well prepared for some practical procedures but not others, reasonably well prepared for history taking and full physical examinations, but mostly unprepared for adopting an holistic understanding of the patient, involving patients in their care, safe and legal prescribing, diagnosing and managing complex clinical conditions and providing immediate care in medical emergencies. Evidence for preparedness for interactional and interpersonal aspects of practice was inconsistent with some studies in the RR suggesting graduates were prepared for team working and communicating with colleagues and patients, but other studies contradicting this. Interview and audio-diary data highlights concerns around F1s preparedness for communicating with angry or upset patients and relatives, breaking bad news, communicating with the wider team (including interprofessionally) and handover communication. There was some evidence in the RR to suggest that graduates were unprepared for dealing with error and safety incidents and lack an understanding of how the clinical environment works. Interview and audio-diary data backs this up, adding that F1s are also unprepared for understanding financial aspects of healthcare. In terms of being personally prepared, RR, interview and audio diary evidence is mixed around graduates’ preparedness for identifying their own limitations, but all data points to graduates’ difficulties in the domain of time management. In terms of personal and situational demographic factors, the RR found that gender did not typically predict perceptions of preparedness, but graduates from more recent cohorts, graduate entry students, graduates from problem based learning courses, UK educated graduates and graduates with an integrated degree reported feeling better prepared. The longitudinal audio-diaries provided insights into the preparedness journey for F1s. There seems to be a general development in the direction of trainees feeling more confident and competent as they gain more experience. However, these developments were not necessarily linear as challenging circumstances (e.g. new specialty, new colleagues, lack of staffing) sometimes made them feel unprepared for situations where they had previously indicated preparedness.

Hα and EUV observations of a partial CME

We have obtained H$\alpha$ high spatial and time resolution observations of the upper solar chromosphere and supplemented these with multi-wavelength observations from the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) and the {\it Hinode} ExtremeUltraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS). The H$\alpha$ observations were conducted on 11 February 2012 with the Hydrogen-Alpha Rapid Dynamics Camera (HARDcam) instrument at the National Solar Observatory's Dunn Solar Telescope. Our H$\alpha$ observations found large downflows of chromospheric material returning from coronal heights following a failed prominence eruption. We have detected several large condensations ("blobs") returning to the solar surface at velocities of $\approx$200 km s$^{-1}$ in both H$\alpha$ and several SDO AIA band passes. The average derived size of these "blobs" in H$\alpha$ is 500 by 3000 km$^2$ in the directions perpendicular and parallel to the direction of travel, respectively. A comparison of our "blob" widths to those found from coronal rain, indicate there are additional smaller, unresolved "blobs" in agreement with previous studies and recent numerical simulations. Our observed velocities and decelerations of the "blobs" in both H$\alpha$ and SDO bands are less than those expected for gravitational free-fall and imply additional magnetic or gas pressure impeding the flow. We derived a kinetic energy $\approx$2 orders of magnitude lower for the main eruption than a typical CME, which may explain its partial nature.

The Pluralism of Human Rights Adjudication

This chapter considers judicial reasoning in ‘human rights’ cases. Are there techniques that courts share, or are different techniques adopted, to decide how human rights, in this broader sense, are protected? The chapter aims to adopt a comparative approach to the examination of this reasoning, through a detailed examination of similar human rights issues in a range of jurisdictions. The aim of the chapter is to examine the similarities and divergences in the reasoning developed by courts when addressing comparable human rights questions. The chapter shows that human rights reasoning involves distinctive and particular forms of legal reasoning, but that its form and content differ significantly
from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, and over time within jurisdictions. Building upon these findings, the chapter explores what these similarities and differences tell us about the nature, and the direction of travel, of human rights law which comprises notionally universal norms.

The Meaning of Drug Use among Homeless Young People:A longitudinal pathways analysis

A strong link between drug use and homelessness has long since been documented in the international literature. However, much of the research has concentrated on the direction of the relationship between drug use and homelessness, seeking to establish drug use as a cause or consequence of homelessness, with far less attention to the intersection of drug and homeless ‘careers’. This paper examines the drug and homeless pathways of young people who are participants in a qualitative longitudinal study of homeless youth in Dublin, Ireland. The findings highlight downward drug transitions as associated with exiting homelessness and continued or escalated consumption as associated with remaining homeless. Analyses of the meanings young people attach to drug use over time reveal the importance of housing as an enabler to engaging with treatment and as assisting the process of becoming and remaining drug free. Young people who remained homeless did not accept their situations, as ‘acculturation’ accounts would suggest; rather, they aspired to changing their situations. However, they also face strong barriers to accessing housing which in turn hamper their efforts to address the matter of their drug use. The implications for how the homeless/drug use ‘nexus’ is conceptualised and understood, as well as implications for policy, are discussed.

Whole Genome Sequencing Reveals Local Transmission Patterns of Mycobacterium bovis in Sympatric Cattle and Badger Populations

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) technology holds great promise as a tool for the forensic epidemiology of bacterial pathogens. It is likely to be particularly useful for studying the transmission dynamics of an observed epidemic involving a largely unsampled 'reservoir' host, as for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in British and Irish cattle and badgers. BTB is caused by Mycobacterium bovis, a member of the M. tuberculosis complex that also includes the aetiological agent for human TB. In this study, we identified a spatio-temporally linked group of 26 cattle and 4 badgers infected with the same Variable Number Tandem Repeat (VNTR) type of M. bovis. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) between sequences identified differences that were consistent with bacterial lineages being persistent on or near farms for several years, despite multiple clear whole herd tests in the interim. Comparing WGS data to mathematical models showed good correlations between genetic divergence and spatial distance, but poor correspondence to the network of cattle movements or within-herd contacts. Badger isolates showed between zero and four SNP differences from the nearest cattle isolate, providing evidence for recent transmissions between the two hosts. This is the first direct genetic evidence of M. bovis persistence on farms over multiple outbreaks with a continued, ongoing interaction with local badgers. However, despite unprecedented resolution, directionality of transmission cannot be inferred at this stage. Despite the often notoriously long timescales between time of infection and time of sampling for TB, our results suggest that WGS data alone can provide insights into TB epidemiology even where detailed contact data are not available, and that more extensive sampling and analysis will allow for quantification of the extent and direction of transmission between cattle and badgers. © 2012 Biek et al.

Time-lapse monitoring of fluid induced geophysical property variations within an unstable earthwork using P-wave refraction

A significant portion of the UK’s transportation system relies on a network of geotechnical earthworks (cuttings and embankments) that were constructed more than 100 years ago, whose stability is affected by the change in precipitation patterns experienced over the past few decades. The vulnerability of these structures requires a reliable, cost- and time-effective monitoring of their geomechanical condition. We have assessed the potential application of P-wave refraction for tracking the seasonal variations of seismic properties within an aged clay-filled railway embankment, located in southwest England. Seismic data were acquired repeatedly along the crest of the earthwork at regular time intervals, for a total period of 16 months. P-wave first-break times were picked from all available recorded traces, to obtain a set of hodocrones referenced to the same spatial locations, for various dates along the surveyed period of time. Traveltimes extracted from each acquisition were then compared to track the pattern of their temporal variability. The relevance of such variations over time was compared with the data experimental uncertainty. The multiple set of hodocrones was subsequently inverted using a tomographic approach, to retrieve a time-lapse model of VPVP for the embankment structure. To directly compare the reconstructed VPVP sections, identical initial models and spatial regularization were used for the inversion of all available data sets. A consistent temporal trend for P-wave traveltimes, and consequently for the reconstructed VPVP models, was identified. This pattern could be related to the seasonal distribution of precipitation and soil-water content measured on site.

Laterality as an indicator of emotional stress in ewes and lambs during a separation test

We assessed motor laterality in sheep to explore species-specific brain hemi-field dominance and how this could be affected by genetic or developmental factors. Further, we investigated whether directionality and strength of laterality could be linked to emotional stress in ewes and their lambs during partial separation. Forty-three ewes and their singleton lambs were scored on the (left/right) direction of turn in a y-maze to rejoin a conspecific (laterality test). Further, their behavioural response (i.e. time spent near the fence, vocalisations, and activity level) during forced separation by an open-mesh fence was assessed (separation test). Individual laterality was recorded for 44.2 % ewes (significant right bias) and 81.4 % lambs (equally biased to the left and the right). There was no significant association in side bias between dams and offspring. The Chi-squared test revealed a significant population bias for both groups (p < 0.05). Evolutionary adaptive strategies or stimuli-related visual laterality may provide explanation for this decision-making process. Absolute strength of laterality (irrespective of side) was high (Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, dams: D = 0.2; p < 0.001; lambs: D = 0.36, p < 0.0001). The Wilcoxon test showed that lateralised lambs and dams spent significantly more time near each other during separation than non-lateralised animals (p < 0.05), and that lateralised dams were also more active than non-lateralised ones. Arguably, the lateralised animals showed a greater attraction to their pair because they were more disturbed and thus required greater reassurance. The data show that measures of laterality offer a potential novel non-invasive indicator of separation stress.

The duration compression effect is mediated by adaptation of both retinotopic and spatiotopic mechanisms

The duration compression effect is a phenomenon in which prior adaptation to a spatially circumscribed dynamic stimulus results in the duration of subsequent subsecond stimuli presented in the adapted region being underestimated. There is disagreement over the frame of reference within which the duration compression phenomenon occurs. One view holds that the effect is driven by retinotopic-tuned mechanisms located at early stages of visual processing, and an alternate position is that the mechanisms are spatiotopic and occur at later stages of visual processing (MT+). We addressed the retinotopic-spatiotopic question by using adapting stimuli – drifting plaids - that are known to activate global-motion mechanisms in area MT. If spatiotopic mechanisms contribute to the duration compression effect, drifting plaid adaptors should be well suited to revealing them. Following adaptation participants were tasked with estimating the duration of a 600ms random dot stimulus, whose direction was identical to the pattern direction of the adapting plaid, presented at either the same retinotopic or the same spatiotopic location as the adaptor. Our results reveal significant duration compression in both conditions, pointing to the involvement of both retinotopic-tuned and spatiotopic-tuned mechanisms in the duration compression effect.

Modelling mortality: Are we heading in the right direction?

Predicting life expectancy has become of upmost importance in society. Pension providers, insurance companies, government bodies and individuals in the developed world have a vested interest in understanding how long people will live for. This desire to better understand life expectancy has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models many of which identify linear trends in mortality rates by time. In making use of such models for forecasting purposes we rely on the assumption that the direction of the linear trend (determined from the data used for fitting purposes) will not change in the future, recent literature has started to question this assumption. In this paper we carry out a comprehensive investigation of these types of models using male and female data from 30 countries and using the theory of structural breaks to identify changes in the extracted trends by time. We find that structural breaks are present in a substantial number of cases, that they are more prevalent in male data than in female data, that the introduction of additional period factors into the model reduces their presence, and that allowing for changes in the trend improves the fit and forecast substantially.