Population enumeration and assessing conservation status in a widespread amphibian: A case study of Rana temporaria in Ireland

Global amphibian declines are a major element of the current biodiversity crisis. Monitoring changes in the distribution and abundance of target species is a basic component in conservation decision making and requires robust and repeatable sampling. For EU member states, surveillance of designated species, including the common frog Rana temporaria, is a formal requirement of the 'EC Habitats & Species Directive'. We deployed established methods for estimating frog population density at local water bodies and extrapolated these to the national and ecoregion scale. Spawn occurred at 49.4% of water bodies and 70.1% of independent 500-m survey squares. Using spawn mat area, we estimated the number of adult breeding females and subsequently the total population assuming a sex ratio of 1:1. A negative binomial model suggested that mean frog density was 23.5 frogsha [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.9-44.0] equating to 196M frogs (95%CI 124M-367M) throughout Ireland. A total of 86% of frogs bred in drainage ditches, which were a notably common feature of the landscape. The recorded distribution of the species did not change significantly between the last Article 17 reporting period (1993-2006) and the current period (2007-2011) throughout the Republic of Ireland. Recording effort was markedly lower in Northern Ireland, which led to an apparent decline in the recorded distribution. We highlight the need to coordinate biological surveys between adjacent political jurisdictions that share a common ecoregion to avoid apparent disparities in the quality of distributional information. Power analysis suggested that a reduced sample of 40-50 survey squares is sufficient to detect a 30% decline (consistent with the International Union for Conservation of Nature Category of 'Vulnerable') at 80% power providing guidance for minimizing future survey effort. Our results provin assessments for R. temporaria and other clump-spawning amphibians. 2013 The Zoological Society of London.

The anatomy of Last Glacial Maximum climate variations in south Westland, New Zealand, derived from pollen records

We present pollen records from three sites in south Westland, New Zealand, that document past vegetation and inferred climate change between approximately 30,000 and 15,000 cal. yr BP. Detailed radiocarbon dating of the enclosing sediments at one of those sites, Galway tarn, provides a more robust chronology for the structure and timing of climate-induced vegetation change than has previously been possible in this region. The Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra, a key isochronous marker, affords a precise stratigraphic link across all three pollen records, while other tie points are provided by key pollen-stratigraphic changes which appear to be synchronous across all three sites. Collectively, the records show three episodes in which grassland, interpreted as indicating mostly cold subalpine to alpine conditions, was prevalent in lowland south Westland, separated by phases dominated by subalpine shrubs and montane-lowland trees, indicating milder interstadial conditions. Dating, expressed as a Bayesian-estimated single 'best' age followed in parentheses by younger/older bounds of the 95% confidence modelled age range, indicates that a cold stadial episode, whose onset was marked by replacement of woodland by grassland, occurred between 28,730 (29,390-28,500) and 25,470 (26,090-25,270) cal. yr BP (years before AD, 1950), prior to the deposition of the Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra. Milder interstadial conditions prevailed between 25,470 (26,090-25,270) and 24,400 (24,840-24,120) cal. yr BP and between 22,630 (22,930-22,340) and 21,980 (22,210-21,580) cal. yr BP, separated by a return to cold stadial conditions between 24,400 and 22,630 cal. yr BP. A final episode of grass-dominated vegetation, indicating cold stadial conditions, occurred from 21,980 (22,210-21,580) to 18,490 (18,670-17,950) cal. yr BP. The decline in grass pollen, indicating progressive climate amelioration, was well advanced by 17,370 (17,730-17,110) cal. yr BP, indicating that the onset of the termination in south Westland occurred sometime between ca 18,490 and ca 17,370 cal. yr BP. A similar general pattern of stadials and interstadials is seen, to varying degrees of resolution but generally with lesser chronological control, in many other paleoclimate proxy records from the New Zealand region. This highly resolved chronology of vegetation changes from southwestern New Zealand contributes to the examination of past climate variations in the southwest Pacific region. The stadial and interstadial episodes defined by south Westland pollen records represent notable climate variability during the latter part of the Last Glaciation. Similar climatic patterns recorded farther afield, for example from Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, imply that climate variations during the latter part of the Last Glaciation and the transition to the Holocene interglacial were inter-regionally extensive in the Southern Hemisphere and thus important to understand in detail and to place into a global context. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inflammatory and immunological biomarkers are not related to survival in adults with Cystic Fibrosis

Background
Chronic Pseudomonas aeruginosa pulmonary infection is associated with a decline in lung function and reduced survival in people with Cystic Fibrosis (CF). Damaging inflammatory and immunological mediators released in the lungs can be used as markers of chronic infection, inflammation and lung tissue damage.

Methods
Clinical samples were collected from CF patients and healthy controls. Serum IgG and IgA anti-Pseudomonas antibodies, sputum IL-8 and TNFα, plasma IL-6 and urine TNFr1 were measured by ELISA. Sputum neutrophil elastase (NE), cathepsin S and cathepsin B were measured by spectrophotometric and fluorogenic assays. The relationship between IgG and IgA, inflammatory mediators and long-term survival was determined.

Results
IgG and IL-6 positively correlated with mortality. However, multivariate analysis demonstrated that after adjusting for FEV1, IgG was not independently related to mortality. A relationship was observed between IgG and IL-6, TNFα, TNFr1 and between IgA and IL8, cathepsin S and cathepsin B.

Conclusions
These data indicate that biomarkers of inflammation are not independent predictors of survival in people with CF.

Chlorophyll-a concentrations and macroinvertebrate declines coincide with the collapse of overwintering diving duck populations in a large eutrophic lake

1. Lough Neagh is one of the most important non-estuarine sites in the British Isles for overwinteringwildfowl. A change in the waterbird assemblage following the winter of 2000/2001 was drivenmainly by a rapid decline in the population of overwintering diving ducks. Sudden and discretechanges in resident as well as migratory waterbirds may suggest an intrinsic cause.
2. We compared the density and biomass of benthic macroinvertebrates, the food of overwinteringdiving ducks, in 2010 (following the diving duck population decline) with values from a baselinesurvey conducted in 1997/1998 (before the decline in diving ducks).
3. The mean total density of macroinvertebrates declined significantly by c. 65% from 15 300 m2in1997/1998 to 5136 m2in 2010. There was a concomitant c. 70% decline in mean macroinvertebratebiomass from 15 667 mg m2to 5112 mg m2. In terms of taxonomic composition, the relativecontribution of Tanypodinae, Glyptotendipes spp . and Tanytarsini declined, while the relativecontribution of Chironomus spp. increased.
4. We describe a shift in chlorophyll-a concentration, a proxy of phytoplankton biomass, in thelargest freshwater lake in the British Isles coincident with a significant reduction in macroinverte-brate density and biomass, with potential implications for ecosystem processes and ecologically andeconomically important consumer populations, including waterbirds and fishes

A phase II study of vorinostat (MK-0683) in patients with polycythaemia vera and essential thrombocythaemia

Inhibition of histone deacetylases may be an important target in patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms. This investigator-initiated, non-randomized, open-label phase II multi-centre study included 63 patients (19 essential thrombocythaemia, 44 polycythaemia vera) from 15 centres. The primary objective was to evaluate if vorinostat was followed by a decline in clonal myeloproliferation as defined by European Leukaemia Net. Thirty patients (48%) completed the intervention period (24 weeks of therapy). An intention-to-treat response rate of 35% was identified. Pruritus was resolved [19% to 0% (P = 0·06)] and the prevalence of splenomegaly was lowered from 50% to 27% (P = 0·03). Sixty-five per cent of the patients experienced a decrease in JAK2 V617F allele burden (P = 0·006). Thirty-three patients (52% of patients) discontinued study drug before end of intervention due to adverse events (28 patients) or lack of response (5 patients). In conclusion, vorinostat showed effectiveness by normalizing elevated leucocyte and platelet counts, resolving pruritus and significantly reducing splenomegaly. However, vorinostat was associated with significant side effects resulting in a high discontinuation rate. A lower dose of vorinostat in combination with conventional and/or novel targeted therapies may be warranted in future studies.

Dynamics of macronutrient self-medication and illness-induced anorexia in virally infected insects

Some animals change their feeding behaviour when infected with parasites, seeking out substances that enhance their ability to overcome infection. This 'self-medication' is typically considered to involve the consumption of toxins, minerals or secondary compounds. However, recent studies have shown that macronutrients can influence the immune response and that pathogen-challenged individuals can self-medicate by choosing a diet rich in protein and low in carbohydrates. Infected individuals might also reduce food intake when infected (i.e. illness-induced anorexia). Here, we examine macronutrient self-medication and illness-induced anorexia in caterpillars of the African armyworm (Spodoptera exempta) by asking how individuals change their feeding decisions over the time course of infection with a baculovirus. We measured self-medication behaviour across several full-sib families to evaluate the plasticity of diet choice and underlying genetic variation. Larvae restricted to diets high in protein (P) and low in carbohydrate (C) were more likely to survive a virus challenge than those restricted to diets with a low P : C ratio. When allowed free choice, virus-challenged individuals chose a higher protein diet than controls. Individuals challenged with either a lethal or sublethal dose of virus increased the P : C ratio of their chosen diets. This was mostly due to a sharp decline in carbohydrate intake, rather than an increased intake of protein, reducing overall food intake, consistent with an illness-induced anorexic response. Over time the P : C ratio of the diet decreased until it matched that of controls. Our study provides the clearest evidence yet for dietary self-medication using macronutrients and shows that the temporal dynamics of feeding behaviour depends on the severity and stage of the infection. The strikingly similar behaviour shown by different families suggests that self-medication is phenotypically plastic and not a consequence of genetically based differences in diet choice between families. © 2013 British Ecological Society.

A pilot study of a family focused, psychosocial intervention with war-exposed youth at risk of attack and abduction in north-eastern Democratic Republic of Congo

Rural communities in the Haut-Uele Province of northern Democratic Republic of Congo live in constant danger of attack and/or abduction by units of the Lord's Resistance Army operating in the region. This pilot study sought to develop and evaluate a community-participative psychosocial intervention involving life skills and relaxation training and Mobile Cinema screenings with this war-affected population living under current threat. 159 war-affected children and young people (aged 7-18) from the villages of Kiliwa and Li-May in north-eastern DR Congo took part in this study. In total, 22% of participants had been abduction previously while 73% had a family member abducted. Symptoms of post-traumatic stress reactions, internalising problems, conduct problems and pro-social behaviour were assessed by blinded interviewers at pre- and post-intervention and at 3-month follow-up. Participants were randomised (with an accompanying caregiver) to 8 sessions of a group-based, community-participative, psychosocial intervention (n=79) carried out by supervised local, lay facilitators or a wait-list control group (n=80). Average seminar attendance rates were high: 88% for participants and 84% for caregivers. Drop-out was low: 97% of participants were assessed at post-intervention and 88% at 3 month follow-up. At post-test, participants reported significantly fewer symptoms of post-traumatic stress reactions compared to controls (Cohen's d=0.40). At 3 month follow up, large improvements in internalising symptoms and moderate improvements in pro-social scores were reported, with caregivers noting a moderate to large decline in conduct problems among the young people. Trial Registration clinicalTrials.gov, Identifier: NCT01542398.

Transmission Potential of Rift Valley Fever virus over the course of the 2010 epidemic in South Africa

A Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemic affecting animals on domestic livestock farms was reported in South Africa during January-August 2010. The first cases occurred after heavy rainfall, and the virus subsequently spread countrywide. To determine the possible effect of environmental conditions and vaccination on RVF virus transmissibility, we estimated the effective reproduction number (R) for the virus over the course of the epidemic by extending the Wallinga and Teunis algorithm with spatial information. Re reached its highest value in mid-February and fell below unity around mid-March, when vaccination coverage was 7.5%-45.7% and vector-suitable environmental conditions were maintained. The epidemic fade-out likely resulted first from the immunization of animals following natural infection or vaccination. The decline in vector-suitable environmental conditions from April onwards and further vaccination helped maintain R below unity. Increased availability of vaccine use data would enable evaluation of the effect of RVF vaccination campaigns.

A Note on Race, Ethnicity and Nativity Differences in Remarriage in the United States

The objectives of this study are to produce up-to-date estimates of race/ethnic/nativity differentials for remarriage and repartnership among women in the United States and to see if these differences are due to across-group differences in demographic characteristics. First, we produce lifetable estimates of remarriage and repartnering for white, black, U.S. born Latina and foreign born Latina women. Next, we estimate race/ethnic/nativity differentials for remarriage and repartnership using event-history analysis with and without controls for demographic characteristics. The results suggest a continued overall decline in remarriage rates, while many women repartner by cohabitating. Whites are more likely than blacks or Latinas to remarry and they are also more likely to repartner. Race/ethnic/nativity differentials remain even after accounting for variations in demographic characteristics. This suggests that race/ethnic/nativity differentials in remarriage and repartnering rates, rather than ameliorating disadvantages associated with divorce, reinforce these differentials.

War, food rationing, and socioeconomic inequality in Germany during the First World War

Germany experienced a devastating period during the First World War due to severely restricted import possibilities and a general shortage of foodstuffs. This study uses the heights of some 4,000 individuals who served during the Second World War to quantify biological living standards from the 1900s to the 1920s, and focuses primarily on socioeconomic inequality during this period. The results suggest that generally the upper social strata, measured by fathers' occupation, exhibited the tallest average height, followed by the middle and lower classes. These socioeconomic differences became more pronounced during the First World War when the rationing system provided a limited food supply. Wealthier individuals were able to purchase additional foodstuffs on black markets. Therefore, children from upper-class families experienced only a small decline in average height compared to their counterparts from the middle and lower social strata.

Deliberative Democracy in Northern Ireland: Opportunities and challenges for consensus in a consociational system

The 1998 Multiparty Agreement established a consociational system that contains within it an explicit dualism: unionist/nationalist, north and south of Ireland, and British and Irish. But although this formula has facilitated relatively stable and devolved governance, it is based on a distorted representation of a society in which there are much more complex divisions and, indeed, many common problems. Citizen-led efforts towards deliberative democracy since the 1980s have demonstrated both the will and the capacity for alternative, consensual political expressions. This chapter examines the challenges and opportunities facing these citizen-led initiatives in a political environment which, despite the significant decline in violence and terror, seems stubbornly resistant to the idea of broadening the various means of democratic participation.

International inter-school competition to encourage children to walk to school: a mixed methods feasibility study.

Background: Active travel to school can be an important contributor to the total physical activity of children but levels have declined and more novel approaches are required to stimulate this as an habitual behaviour. The aim of this mixed methods study was to investigate the feasibility of an international walk to school competition supported by novel swipecard technology to increase children's walking to/from school. Methods: Children aged 9-13 years old participated in an international walk to school competition to win points for themselves, their school and their country over a 4-week period. Walks to and from school were recorded using swipecard technology and a bespoke website. For each point earned by participants, 1 pence (£0.01) was donated to the charity of the school's choice. The primary outcome was number of walks to/from school objectively recorded using the swipecard tracking system over the intervention period. Other measures included attitudes towards walking collected at baseline and week 4 (post-intervention). A qualitative sub-study involving focus groups with children, parents and teachers provided further insight. Results: A total of 3817 children (mean age 11.5±SD 0.7) from 12 schools in three cities (London and Reading, England and Vancouver, Canada) took part in the intervention, representing a 95% intervention participation rate. Results show a gradual decline in the average number of children walking to and from school over the 4-week period (week 1 mean 29%±SD2.5; week 2 mean 18%±SD3.6; week 3 mean 14%±SD4.0; week 4 mean 12%±SD1.1). Post intervention, 97% of children felt that walking to school helped them stay healthy, feel happy (81%) and stay alert in class (76%). These results are supported by qualitative findings from children, parents and teachers. Key areas for improvement include the need to incorporate strategies for maintenance of behaviour change into the intervention and also to adopt novel methods of data collection to increase follow-up rates. Conclusions: This mixed methods study suggests that an international walk to school competition using innovative technology can be feasibly implemented and offers a novel way of engaging schools and motivating children to walk to school.

Pharmacological interventions for dementia in people with Down Syndrome (Protocol).

Background: People with Down syndrome are vulnerable to developing dementia at an earlier age than the general population. Alzheimer’s disease and cognitive decline in people with Down syndrome can place a significant burden on both the person with Down syndrome and their family and carers. Various pharmacological interventions, including donepezil, galantamine, memantine and rivastigmine, appear to have some effect in treating cognitive decline in people without Down syndrome, but their effectiveness for those with Down syndrome remains unclear. Objectives: To assess the effectiveness of anti-dementia pharmacological interventions and nutritional supplements for treating cognitive decline in people with Down syndrome. Search methods In January 2015, we searched CENTRAL, ALOIS (the Specialised Register of the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group), Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, seven other databases, and two trials registers. In addition, we checked the references of relevant reviews and studies and contacted study authors, other researchers and relevant drug manufacturers to identify additional studies. Selection criteria: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of anti-dementia pharmacological interventions or nutritional supplements for adults (aged 18 years and older) with Down syndrome, in which treatment was administered and compared with either placebo or no treatment. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently assessed the risk of bias of included trials and extracted the relevant data. Review authors contacted study authors to obtain missing information where necessaryMain results Only nine studies (427 participants) met the inclusion criteria for this review. Four of these (192 participants) assessed the effectiveness of donepezil, two (139 participants) assessed memantine, one (21 participants) assessed simvastatin, one study (35 participants) assessed antioxidants, and one study (40 participants) assessed acetyl-L-carnitine. Five studies focused on adults aged 45 to 55 years, while the remaining four studies focused on adults aged 20 to 29 years. Seven studies were conducted in either the USA or UK, one between Norway and the UK, and one in Japan. Follow-up periods in studies ranged from four weeks to two years. The reviewers judged all included studies to be at low or unclear risk of bias. Analyses indicate that for participants who received donepezil, scores in measures of cognitive functioning (standardised mean difference (SMD) 0.52, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.27 to 1.13) and measures of behaviour (SMD 0.42, 95% CI -0.06 to 0.89) were similar to those who received placebo. However, participants who received donepezil were significantly more likely to experience an adverse event (odds ratio (OR) 0.32, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.62). The quality of this body of evidence was low. None of the included donepezil studies reported data for carer stress, institutional/home care, or death. For participants who received memantine, scores in measures of cognitive functioning (SMD 0.05, 95% CI -0.43 to 0.52), behaviour (SMD -0.17, 95% CI -0.46 to 0.11), and occurrence of adverse events (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.18 to 1.17) were similar to those who received placebo. The quality of this body of evidence was low. None of the included memantine studies reported data for carer stress, institutional/home care, or death. Due to insufficient data, it was possible to provide a narrative account only of the outcomes for simvastatin, antioxidants, and acetylL-carnitine. Results from one pilot study suggest that participants who received simvastatin may have shown a slight improvement in cognitive measures. Authors’ conclusions Due to the low quality of the body of evidence in this review, it is difficult to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of any pharmacological intervention for cognitive decline in people with Down syndrome.

Managerial failure in mid-Victorian Britain?: Corporate expansion during a promotion boom

This article examines the mid-1840s expansion of the British railway network, which was associated with a large deterioration in shareholder value. Using a counterfactual approach and new data on railway competition, we argue that the expansion of the railway companies, and their subsequent decline in financial performance, was not due to managerial failure. Rather, the promotion of new routes by established railways and mergers with other companies was part of a managerial strategy to maintain incumbent positions, and may have been preferable to not expanding whilst their competitors did.

Targeting Trypsin-Like Proteases: A Mechanism to Restore Mucociliary Function in Cystic Fibrosis Airways

Dehydration of the airway surface liquid (ASL) and the resultant decline in function of the mucociliary escalator in cystic fibrosis airways is largely underpinned by the excessive flux of Na+ and water though ENaC. Proteolysis of the endogenous  and  subunits of epithelial sodium channels (ENaC) by channel activating proteases (CAPS) is the key regulatory mechanism for channel activation. Recent reports highlight that (1) CFTR (cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator) normally protects ENaC from the action of proteases and (2) a stark imbalance in proteases/protease inhibitor levels in CF airway cultures favour activation of normally inactive ENaC. The current study examines the potential therapeutic benefit of CAPS/ENaC inhibition in CF airways.
Our group has developed a panel of active-site directed affinity-based probes which target and inhibit trypsin-like proteases (potential CAPS); including the broad-spectrum inhibitor QUB-TL1. We have utilised this compound to interrogate the impact of trypsin-like protease inhibition on ENaC activity in differentiated primary airway epithelial cell cultures.
Electrophysiological data demonstrate QUB-TL1 selectively and irreversibly binds to extracellularly located trypsin-like proteases resulting in impaired ENaC-mediated Na+ transport. Visualisation of ENaC at the apical surface compartment of primary airway epithelial cells shows a large reduction in a low molecular weight (processed and active) form of ENaC, which was found to be abundant in untreated CF cultures. Consistent with the reduction in ENaC activity observed, QUB-TL1 treatment was subsequently shown to increase ASL height (performed in collaboration with Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland).
Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that targeting the CAPS-ENaC signalling axis may restore the depleted ASL seen in CF airways.