Root Cause Analysis by a Combined Sparse Classification and Monte Carlo Approach

Classification methods with embedded feature selection capability are very appealing for the analysis of complex processes since they allow the analysis of root causes even when the number of input variables is high. In this work, we investigate the performance of three techniques for classification within a Monte Carlo strategy with the aim of root cause analysis. We consider the naive bayes classifier and the logistic regression model with two different implementations for controlling model complexity, namely, a LASSO-like implementation with a L1 norm regularization and a fully Bayesian implementation of the logistic model, the so called relevance vector machine. Several challenges can arise when estimating such models mainly linked to the characteristics of the data: a large number of input variables, high correlation among subsets of variables, the situation where the number of variables is higher than the number of available data points and the case of unbalanced datasets. Using an ecological and a semiconductor manufacturing dataset, we show advantages and drawbacks of each method, highlighting the superior performance in term of classification accuracy for the relevance vector machine with respect to the other classifiers. Moreover, we show how the combination of the proposed techniques and the Monte Carlo approach can be used to get more robust insights into the problem under analysis when faced with challenging modelling conditions.

Turbulent Fluctuations in G-band and K-line Intensities Observed with the Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) Instrument

Using the Rapid Oscillation in the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) instrument at the Dunn Solar Telescope we have found that the spectra of fluctuations of the G-band (cadence 1.05 s) and Ca II K-line (cadence 4.2 s) intensities show correlated fluctuations above white noise out to frequencies beyond 300 mHz and up to 70 mHz, respectively. The noise-corrected G-band spectrum presents a scaling range (Ultra High Frequency “UHF”) for f = 25-100 mHz, with an exponent consistent with the presence of turbulent motions. The UHF power, is concentrated at the locations of magnetic bright points in the intergranular lanes, it is highly intermittent in time and characterized by a positive kurtosis κ. Combining values of G-band and K-line intensities, the UHF power, and κ, reveals two distinct “states” of the internetwork solar atmosphere. State 1, with κ ≍ 6, which includes almost all the data, is characterized by low intensities and low UHF power. State 2, with κ ≍ 3, including a very small fraction of the data, is characterized by high intensities and high UHF power. Superposed epoch analysis shows that for State 1, the K-line intensity presents 3.5 min chromospheric oscillations with maxima occurring 21 s after G-band intensity maxima implying a 150-210 km effective height difference. For State 2, the G-band and K-line intensity maxima are simultaneous, suggesting that in the highly magnetized environment sites of G-band and K-line emission may be spatially close together. Analysis of observations obtained with Hinode/SOT confirm a scaling range in the G-band spectrum up to 53 mHz also consistent with turbulent motions as well as the identification of two distinct states in terms of the H-line intensity and G-band power as functions of G-band intensity.

Coupled Effects of a Perturbation in a Complex Structure Observed with SDO/AIA, SDO/HMI and ROSA/HARDcam

We study properties of intensity fluctuations in NOAA Active Region 11250 observed on 13 July 2011 starting at UT 13:32. Included are data obtained in the EUV bands of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/AIA) as well as nearly simultaneous observations of the chromosphere made, at much higher spatial and temporal resolution, with the Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) and Hydrogen-Alpha Rapid Dynamics camera (HARDcam) systems at the Dunn Solar Telescope. A complex structure seen in both the ROSA/HARDcam and SDO data sets comprises a system of loops extending outward from near the boundary of the leading sunspot umbra. It is visible in the ROSA Ca II K and HARDcam Hα images, as well as the SDO 304 Å, 171 Å and 193 Å channels, and it thus couples the chromosphere, transition region and corona. In the ground-based images the loop structure is 4.1 Mm long. Some 17.5 Mm, can be traced in the SDO/AIA data. The chromospheric emissions observed by ROSA and HARDcam appear to occupy the inner, and apparently cooler and lower, quarter of the loop. We compare the intensity fluctuations of two points within the structure. From alignment with SDO/HMI images we identify a point "A" near the loop structure, which sits directly above a bipolar magnetic feature in the photosphere. Point "B" is characteristic of locations within the loops that are visible in both the ROSA/HARDcam and the SDO/AIA data. The intensity traces for point A are quiet during the first part of the data string. At time ~ 19 min they suddenly begin a series of impulsive brightenings. In the 171 Å and 193 Å coronal lines the brightenings are localized impulses in time, but in the transition region line at 304 Å they are more extended in time. The intensity traces in the 304 Å line for point B shows a quasi-periodic signal that changes properties at about 19 min. The wavelet power spectra are characterized by two periodicities. A 6.7 min period extends from the beginning of the series until about 25 minutes, and another signal with period ~3 min starts at about 20 min. The 193 Å power spectrum has a characteristic period of 5 min, before the 20 min transition and a 2.5 min periodicity afterward. In the case of HARDcam Hα data a localized 4 min periodicity can be found until about 7 min, followed by a quiet regime. After ~20 min a 2.3 min periodicity appears. Interestingly a coronal loop visible in the 94 Å line that is centrally located in the AR, running from the leading umbra to the following polarity, at about time 20 min undergoes a strong brightening beginning at the same moment all along 15 Mm of its length. The fact that these different signals all experience a clear-cut change at time about 20 min suggests an underlying organizing mechanism. Given that point A has a direct connection to the photospheric magnetic bipole, we conjecture that the whole extended structure is connected in a complex manner to the underlying magnetic field. The periodicities in these features may favor the wave nature rather than upflows and interpretations will be discussed.

ROSA: A High-cadence, Synchronized Multi-camera Solar Imaging System

The Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) instrument is a synchronized, six-camera high-cadence solar imaging instrument developed by Queen's University Belfast and recently commissioned at the Dunn Solar Telescope at the National Solar Observatory in Sunspot, New Mexico, USA, as a common-user instrument. Consisting of six 1k x 1k Peltier-cooled frame-transfer CCD cameras with very low noise (0.02 - 15 e/pixel/s), each ROSA camera is capable of full-chip readout speeds in excess of 30 Hz, and up to 200 Hz when the CCD is windowed. ROSA will allow for multi-wavelength studies of the solar atmosphere at a high temporal resolution. We will present the current instrument set-up and parameters, observing modes, and future plans, including a new high QE camera allowing 15 Hz for Halpha. Interested parties should see https://habu.pst.qub.ac.uk/groups/arcresearch/wiki/de502/ROSA.html

Late-Pleistocene palaeoclimate and glacial activity recorded from lake sediments in the Eastern Alps

Greenland ice core data show that the last glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere was characterized by relatively short and rapid warming-cooling cycles. While the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the following Late Glacial are well documented in the Eastern Alps, continuous and well dated records of the time period preceding the LGM are only known from stalagmites. Although most of the sediment that filled the Alpine valleys prior to the LGM was eroded, thick successions have been locally preserved as terraces along the flanks of large longitudinal valleys. The Inn valley in Tyrol (Austria) offers the most striking examples of Pleistocene terraces in the Eastern Alps. A large number of drill cores provides the opportunity to study these sediments for the first time in great detail. Our study focuses on the river terrace of Unterangerberg near Wörgl, where LGM gravel and till were deposited on top of (glacio)lacustrine sediments. The cores comprise mostly silty material, ranging from organic-rich to organic-poor and dropstone-rich beds. A diamictic layer classified as basal till is present at the bottom of the lake sediments. Radiocarbon ages of plant macro remains from the lake sequences indicate deposition between ~40 and >50 cal. ka BP. Luminescence ages obtained from fine-grain polymineral (4-11 μm) samples suggest an age of the lake deposits between ~40 to 60 ka and are consistent with the radiocarbon dates. Sedimentological analyses indicate that sedimentation in these palaeolakes was driven by local processes, but also by climatically induced changes in nearby glacier activity. These observations strongly hint towards a significant ice advance in the Eastern Alps during the early last glacial and subsequent mild interstadial conditions, supporting a local coniferous forest vegetation.

Self-consistent modelling of line-driven hot-star winds with Monte Carlo radiation hydrodynamics

Radiative pressure exerted by line interactions is a prominent driver of outflows in astrophysical systems, being at work in the outflows emerging from hot stars or from the accretion discs of cataclysmic variables, massive young stars and active galactic nuclei. In this work, a new radiation hydrodynamical approach to model line-driven hot-star winds is presented. By coupling a Monte Carlo radiative transfer scheme with a finite volume fluid dynamical method, line-driven mass outflows may be modelled self-consistently, benefiting from the advantages of Monte Carlo techniques in treating multiline effects, such as multiple scatterings, and in dealing with arbitrary multidimensional configurations. In this work, we introduce our approach in detail by highlighting the key numerical techniques and verifying their operation in a number of simplified applications, specifically in a series of self-consistent, one-dimensional, Sobolev-type, hot-star wind calculations. The utility and accuracy of our approach are demonstrated by comparing the obtained results with the predictions of various formulations of the so-called CAK theory and by confronting the calculations with modern sophisticated techniques of predicting the wind structure. Using these calculations, we also point out some useful diagnostic capabilities our approach provides. Finally, we discuss some of the current limitations of our method, some possible extensions and potential future applications.

‘The Violence of History: Rosa Chacel’s Memorias de Leticia Valle’

Leticia Valle, the eleven-year-old narrator and protagonist of Rosa Chacel’s 1945 novel Memorias de Leticia Valle seduces and destroys her history teacher, Daniel. Here, I argue that Daniel represents traditionalist, right-wing interpretations of Spanish history while also recalling the importance of the colonial wars in Morocco in the build up to the Civil War, and the Nationalists’ use of Moroccan conscripts and recruits within the peninsula. Written at a time when history was being used to justify an armed rebellion, a civil war, and the imposition of a brutal dictatorship, Chacel’s novel depends on ellipses and absence to question historiographical principles. Furthermore, it combines continued reference to Spanish history with the use of violent and militant language. The most devastating conflict of all is between Leticia and Daniel: she silences and dehumanizes him, though she is not able to fully explain what happened. Writing from Switzerland, Chacel’s narrator takes possession of Spanish history at a time when dissent within Spain was being silenced by the Francoist regime.