Children’s Reasoning About the Temporal Order of Past and Future Events

Four- and five-year-olds completed two sets of tasks that involved reasoning about the temporal order in which events had occurred in the past or were to occur in the future. Four-year-olds succeeded on the tasks that involved reasoning about the order of past events but not those that involved reasoning about the order of future events, whereas 5-year-olds passed both types of tasks. Individual children who failed the past-event tasks were not particularly likely to fail the more difficult future-event tasks. However, children's performance on the reasoning tasks was predictive of their performance on a task assessing their comprehension of the terms “before” and “after.” Our results suggest that there may be a developmental change over this age range in the ability to flexibly represent and reason about the before-and-after relationships between events.

Extreme events and the morphodynamics of gravel-dominated coastal barriers: Strengthening uncertain ground

The long-term morphodynamic ordering of gravel-dominated coastal systems (GDCS), many of which serve as coastal defences in northwest Europe, is dominated by extreme events that generate barrier crest overflow. An understanding of this morphodynamic ordering is fraught with several unresolved difficulties. These are related to the twin problems of the inadequacy of pertinent morphodynamic parameterisation and of obtaining data from modern shores enabling such parameterisation. Major uncertainties concern the timing of over-crest flow in terms of return period of extreme elevation; the intensity and structure of the overflow field; antecedent beachface characteristics in response to storms; the rate of relative sea-level change; tidal stage control; and barrier resistance to forcing, itself determined by a number of unknowns including barrier form and size, sediment size and mosaics, and barrier resilience. While generalised extreme value modelling may provide a means of characterising overwashing return-period and its variability, exceptional tsunami events are outside the scope of such modelling. The characterisation of GDCS morphodynamics in terms of the forcing extreme events will necessitate integrating some or all of these parameters into a single model.

Predictions of large events on a spring-block model

We study the predictability of a theoretical model for earthquakes, using a pattern recognition algorithm similar to the CN and M8 algorithms known in seismology. The model, which is a stochastic spring-block model with both global correlation and local interaction, becomes more predictable as the strength of the global correlation or the local interaction is increased.

The spatial distribution of Holocene cryptotephras in north-west Europe since 7 ka: implications for understanding ash fall events from Icelandic eruptions

We present distribution maps for all cryptotephras (distal volcanic ash layers) younger than 7 ka that have been reported from three or more lakes or peatlands in north-west Europe. All but one of the tephras originates from Iceland; the exception has been attributed to Jan Mayen. We find strong spatial patterning in tephra occurrence at the landscape scale; most, but not all of the tephra occurrences are significantly spatially clustered, which likely reflects atmospheric and weather patterns at the time of the eruptions. Contrary to expectations based on atmospheric modelling studies, tephras appear to be at least as abundant in Ireland and northern Scotland as in Scandinavia. Rhyolitic and other felsic tephras occur in lakes and peatlands throughout the study region, but andesitic and basaltic tephras are largely restricted to lake sites in the Faroe Islands and Ireland. Explanations of some of these patterns will require further research on the effects of different methodologies for locating and characterizing cryptotephras. These new maps will help to guide future investigations in tephrochronology and volcanic hazard analysis.

Development of a risk model for adverse drug events in the elderly

The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model for adverse drug events (ADEs) in elderly patients. Socio-demographic and medical data were collected from chart reviews, computerised information and a patient interview, for a population of 929 elderly patients (aged greater than or equal to 65 years) whose admission to the Waveney/B raid Valley Hospital in Northern Ireland was not scheduled. A further 204 patients formed a validation group. An ADE score was assigned to each patient using a modified Naranjo algorithm scoring system. The ADE scores ranged from 0 to 8. For the purposes of developing a risk model, scores of 4 or more were considered to constitute a high risk of an ADE.

Massive stars exploding in a He-rich circumstellar medium - I. Type Ibn (SN 2006jc-like) events

We present new spectroscopic and photometric data of the Type Ibn supernovae 2006jc, 2000er and 2002ao. We discuss the general properties of this recently proposed supernova family, which also includes SN 1999cq. The early-time monitoring of SN 2000er traces the evolution of this class of objects during the first few days after the shock breakout. An overall similarity in the photometric and spectroscopic evolution is found among the members of this group, which would be unexpected if the energy in these core-collapse events was dominated by the interaction between supernova ejecta and circumstellar medium. Type Ibn supernovae appear to be rather normal Type Ib/c supernova explosions which occur within a He-rich circumstellar environment. SNe Ibn are therefore likely produced by the explosion of Wolf-Rayet progenitors still embedded in the He-rich material lost by the star in recent mass-loss episodes, which resemble known luminous blue variable eruptions. The evolved Wolf-Rayet star could either result from the evolution of a very massive star or be the more evolved member of a massive binary system. We also suggest that there are a number of arguments in favour of a Type Ibn classification for the historical SN 1885A (S-Andromedae), previously considered as an anomalous Type la event with some resemblance to SN 1991bg.

The POINT-AGAPE survey - II. An unrestricted search for microlensing events towards M31

An automated search is carried out for microlensing events using a catalogue of 44 554 variable superpixel light curves derived from our 3-yr monitoring programme of M31. Each step of our candidate selection is objective and reproducible by a computer. Our search is unrestricted, in the sense that it has no explicit time-scale cut. So, it must overcome the awkward problem of distinguishing long time-scale microlensing events from long-period stellar variables.

Vegetation responses to rapid climatic changes during the last deglaciation 13,500-8,000 years ago on southwest Andoya, arctic Norway

The late-glacial vegetation development in northern Norway in response to climate changes during the Allerod, Younger Dryas (YD), and the transition to the Holocene is poorly known. Here we present a high-resolution record of floral and vegetation changes at lake Lusvatnet, south-west Andoya, between 13500 and 8000 cal b.p. Plant macrofossil and pollen analyses were done on the same sediment core and the proxy records follow each other very closely. The core has also been analyzed using an ITRAX XRF scanner in order to check the sediment sequence for disturbances or hiatuses. The core has a good radiocarbon-based chronology. The Saksunarvatn tephra fits very well chronostratigraphically. During both the Allerod and the Younger Dryas time-periods arctic vegetation prevailed, dominated by Salix polaris associated with many typically arctic herbs such as Saxifraga cespitosa, Saxifraga rivularis and Oxyria digyna. Both periods were cold and dry. Between 12450 and 12250 cal b.p. during the Younger Dryas chronozone, the assemblage changed, particularly in the increased abundance of Papaver sect. Scapiflora and other high-Arctic herbs, suggesting the development of polar desert vegetation mainly as a response to increased aridity. After 11520 cal b.p. a gradually warmer and more oceanic climate initiated a succession to dwarf-shrub vegetation and the establishment of Betula woodland after 1,000 years at c. 10520 cal b.p. The overall late-glacial aridity contrasts with oceanic conditions in southern Norway and is probably related to sea-ice extent.