Methods in wind power prediction & forecasting

Globally on-shore wind power has seen considerable growth in all grid systems. In the coming decade off-shore wind power is also expected to expand rapidly. Wind power is variable and intermittent over various time scales because it is weather dependent. Therefore wind power integration into traditional grids needs additional power system and electricity market planning and management for system balancing. This extra system balancing means that there is additional system costs associated with wind power assimilation. Wind power forecasting and prediction methods are used by system operators to plan unit commitment, scheduling and dispatch and by electricity traders and wind farm owners to maximize profit. Accurate wind power forecasting and prediction has numerous challenges. This paper presents a study of the existing and possible future methods used in wind power forecasting and prediction for both on-shore and off-shore wind farms.

Retrodirective Rotman Lens Constraining Factors

The mechanism by which a retrodirective Rotman lens operates is examined theoretically and prediction is compared with measurement. By deriving the reflection matrix based on the phase delay relationship between the beam ports and the array ports we show that if the phase delay difference between neighbouring ports is constrained in a particular way that the reflection matrix becomes an inverse diagonal matrix and the Rotman lens functions as a Van Atta Array hence can perform retrodirective reflection. Further, the primary factors governing the bandwidth and beam pointing error of the lens are elaborated.

Hepatitis A outbreak predominantly affecting men who have sex with men in Northern Ireland, October 2008 to July 2009

We describe an outbreak of hepatitis A which evolved in Northern Ireland between October 2008 and July 2009, against a background of large concurrent hepatitis A outbreaks in various parts of Europe. Thirty-eight cases were defined as outbreak cases using a stratified case definition; 36 were males with a median age of 29 years and of the 28 males whose sexual orientation was known, 26 were men who have sex with men (MSM). Detailed descriptive epidemiology data collected through standardised questionnaires, together with sequencing of a 289 bp fragment of the VP1/2PA region of the virus, significantly aided the understanding of the spread of the outbreak when non-MSM cases occurred. The sequence of the outbreak strain, genotype IA, was indistinguishable from that involved in a large outbreak in the Czech Republic. Although seeded in a generally susceptible Northern Ireland population, the outbreak remained mostly contained in MSM, showing this sub-population to be the most vulnerable despite ongoing hepatitis A vaccination programmes in genito-urinary medicine clinics.