Probabilistic Inference in Credal Networks: New Complexity Results

Credal networks are graph-based statistical models whose parameters take values in a set, instead of being sharply specified as in traditional statistical models (e.g., Bayesian networks). The computational complexity of inferences on such models depends on the irrelevance/independence concept adopted. In this paper, we study inferential complexity under the concepts of epistemic irrelevance and strong independence. We show that inferences under strong independence are NP-hard even in trees with binary variables except for a single ternary one. We prove that under epistemic irrelevance the polynomial-time complexity of inferences in credal trees is not likely to extend to more general models (e.g., singly connected topologies). These results clearly distinguish networks that admit efficient inferences and those where inferences are most likely hard, and settle several open questions regarding their computational complexity. We show that these results remain valid even if we disallow the use of zero probabilities. We also show that the computation of bounds on the probability of the future state in a hidden Markov model is the same whether we assume epistemic irrelevance or strong independence, and we prove an analogous result for inference in Naive Bayes structures. These inferential equivalences are important for practitioners, as hidden Markov models and Naive Bayes networks are used in real applications of imprecise probability.

“Local politics and global corporate crime in Irish crime fiction : Alan Glynn's Winterland trilogy",

Religion in Times of Crisis

Religion is alive and well all over the world, especially in times of personal, political, and social crisis. Even in Europe, long regarded as the most 'secular' continent, religion has taken centre stage in how people respond to the crises associated with modernity, or how they interact with the nation-state. In this book, scholars working in and on Europe offer fresh perspectives on how religion provides answers to existential crisis, how crisis increases the salience of religious identities and cultural polarization, and how religion is contributing to changes in the modern world in Europe and beyond. Cases from Poland to Pakistan and from Ireland to Zimbabwe, among others, demonstrate the complexity and ambivalence of religion's role in the contemporary world.

State architecture: subsidiarity, devolution, federalism and independence

This chapter examines the current ‘architecture’ of the British state, in particular the way in which governmental power is distributed among the nations of the United Kingdom. The theme of this chapter will be to show how the continuing (and, as James Bryce argued, inevitable) tension between centripetal and centrifugal forces can be usefully applied to power relations between the various nations of the United Kingdom, and between these nations and Europe, providing a basis for analyzing how these nations are drawn or impelled by some forces towards a centralized unitary polity, whilst at the same time other forces tend towards dispersion of power. The resulting pattern might be analyzed along a spectrum from centralization to independence, with subsidiarity, devolution and federalism being seen as weigh stations along the way, but given how complex the variations in the distribution of power between these nations and the centre have become over time, the construction of any static architectural blueprint of the British state is bound to be misleading. Indeed, the architectural metaphor, with its implications of stability might usefully be rethought.

Probabilistic Planning in AgentSpeak using the POMDP framework.

AgentSpeak is a logic-based programming language, based on the Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) paradigm, suitable for building complex agent-based systems. To limit the computational complexity, agents in AgentSpeak rely on a plan library to reduce the planning problem to the much simpler problem of plan selection. However, such a plan library is often inadequate when an agent is situated in an uncertain environment. In this paper, we propose the AgentSpeak+ framework, which extends AgentSpeak with a mechanism for probabilistic planning. The beliefs of an AgentSpeak+ agent are represented using epistemic states to allow an agent to reason about its uncertain observations and the uncertain effects of its actions. Each epistemic state consists of a POMDP, used to encode the agent’s knowledge of the environment, and its associated probability distribution (or belief state). In addition, the POMDP is used to select the optimal actions for achieving a given goal, even when facing uncertainty.

Local Conventions in Game Play in an Evolving Dual Social Network Framework

People usually perform economic interactions within the social setting of a small group, while they obtain relevant information from a broader source. We capture this feature with a dynamic interaction model based on two separate social networks. Individuals play a coordination game in an interaction network, while updating their strategies using information from a separate influence network through which information is disseminated. In each time period, the interaction and influence networks co-evolve, and the individuals’ strategies are updated through a modified naive learning process. We show that both network structures and players’ strategies always reach a steady state, in which players form fully connected groups and converge to local conventions. We also analyze the influence exerted by a minority group of strongly opinionated players on these outcomes.

Nonlinearity and nonclassicality in a nanomechanical resonator

We address quantitatively the relationship between the nonlinearity of a mechanical resonator and the nonclassicality of its ground state. In particular, we analyze the nonclassical properties of the nonlinear Duffing oscillator (being driven or not) as a paradigmatic example of a nonlinear nanomechanical resonator. We first discuss how to quantify the nonlinearity of this system and then show that the nonclassicality of the ground state, as measured by the volume occupied by the negative part of the Wigner function, monotonically increases with the nonlinearity in all the working regimes addressed in our study. Our results show quantitatively that nonlinearity is a resource to create nonclassical states in mechanical systems.

Induction and antagonism of antiviral responses in respiratory syncytial virus-infected pediatric airway epithelium.

Airway epithelium is the primary target of many respiratory viruses. However, virus induction and antagonism of host responses by human airway epithelium remains poorly understood. To address this, we developed a model of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection based on well- differentiated pediatric primary bronchial epithelial cell cultures (WD-PBECs) that mimics hallmarks of RSV disease in infants. RSV is the most important respiratory viral pathogen in young infants worldwide. We found that RSV induces a potent antiviral state in WD-PBECs that was mediated in part by secreted factors, including interferon lambda-1 (IFNλ1)/IL-29. In contrast, type I interferons were not detected following RSV infection of WD-PBECs., Interferon (IFN) responses in RSV-infected WD-PBECs reflected those in lower airway samples from RSV-hospitalized infants. In view of the prominence of IL-29, we determined whether recombinant IL-29 treatment of WD-PBECs before or after infection abrogated RSV replication. Interestingly, IL-29 demonstrated prophylactic, but not therapeutic, potential against RSV. The absence of therapeutic potential reflected effective RSV antagonism of IFN-mediated antiviral responses in infected cells. Our data are consistent with RSV non-structural proteins 1 and/or 2 perturbing the Jak-STAT signaling pathway, with concomitant reduced expression of antiviral effector molecules, such as MxA/B. Antagonism of Jak-STAT signaling was restricted to RSV-infected cells in WD-PBEC cultures. Importantly, our study provides the rationale to further explore IL-29 as a novel RSV prophylactic.

Inhibition of endosome fusion by wortmannin persists in the presence of activated Rab5

Rab5-dependent endosome fusion is sensitive to the phosphoinositide 3-kinase inhibitor, wortmannin. It has been proposed that phosphoinositide 3-kinase activity may be required for activation of rab5 by influencing its nucleotide cycle such as to promote its active GTP state. In this report we demonstrate that endosome fusion remains sensitive to wortmannin despite preloading of endosomes with stimulatory levels of a GTPase-defective mutant rab5(Q79L) or of a xanthosine triphosphate-binding mutant, rab5(D136N), in the presence of the nonhydrolysable analogue XTPgammaS. These results suggest that activation of rab5 cannot be the principal function of the wortmannin-sensitive factor on the endosome fusion pathway. This result is extrapolated to all GTPases by demonstrating that endosome fusion remains wortmannin sensitive despite prior incubation with the nonhydrolysable nucleotide analogue GTPgammaS. Consistent with these results, direct measurement of clathrin-coated vesicle-stimulated nucleotide dissociation from exogenous rab5 was insensitive to the presence of wortmannin. A large excess of rab5(Q79L), beyond levels required for maximal stimulation of the fusion assay, afforded protection against wortmannin inhibition, and partial protection was also observed with an excess of wild-type rab5 independent of GTPgammaS.

Who Knows What's Going On? Mapping New Security Landscapes in Contemporary Espionage Fiction

This article explores whether or to what extent the contemporary espionage novel is able to map and interrogate transformations in the post-9/11security environment. It asks how well a form or genre of writing, typically handcuffed to the machinations and demands of the Cold War and state sovereignty, is able to adapt to a new security environment characterized by strategies of “risk assessment” and “resilience-building” and by modes or regimes of power not reducible to, or wholly controlled by, the state. In doing so, it thinks about the capacities of this type of fiction for “resisting” the formations of power it wants to make visible and is partly complicit with.

Mixed Messages: American Correspondences in Visual and Verbal Practices

Mixed Messages presents and interrogates ten distinct moments from the arts of nineteenth, twentieth and twenty-first century America where visual and verbal forms blend and clash. Charting correspondences concerned with the expression and meaning of human experience, this volume moves beyond standard interdisciplinary theoretical approaches to consider the written and visual artwork in embodied, cognitive, and contextual terms.

Offering a genuinely interdisciplinary contribution to the intersecting fields of art history, avant-garde studies, word-image relations, and literary studies, Mixed Messages takes in architecture, notebooks, poetry, painting, conceptual art, contemporary art, comic books, photographs and installations, ending with a speculative conclusion on the role of the body in the experience of digital mixed media. Each of the ten case studies explores the juxtaposition of visual and verbal forms in a manner that moves away from treating verbal and visual symbols as operating in binary or oppositional systems, and towards a consideration of mixed media, multi-media and intermedia work as brought together in acts of creation, exhibition, reading, viewing, and immersion. The collection advances research into embodiment theory, affect, pragmatist aesthetics, as well as into the continuing legacy of romanticism and of dada, conceptual art and surrealism in an American context.