The marginal willingness-to-pay for attributes of a hypothetical HIV vaccine

This paper estimates the marginal willingness-to-pay for attributes of a hypothetical HIV vaccine using discrete choice modeling. We use primary data from 326 respondents from Bangkok and Chiang Mai, Thailand, in 2008–2009, selected using purposive, venue-based sampling across two strata. Participants completed a structured questionnaire and full rank discrete choice modeling task administered using computer-assisted personal interviewing. The choice experiment was used to rank eight hypothetical HIV vaccine scenarios, with each scenario comprising seven attributes (including cost) each of which had two levels. The data were analyzed in two alternative specifications: (1) best-worst; and (2) full-rank, using logit likelihood functions estimated with custom routines in Gauss matrix programming language. In the full-rank specification, all vaccine attributes are significant predictors of probability of vaccine choice. The biomedical attributes of the hypothetical HIV vaccine (efficacy, absence of VISP, absence of side effects, and duration of effect) are the most important attributes for HIV vaccine choice. On average respondents are more than twice as likely to accept a vaccine with 99% efficacy, than a vaccine with 50% efficacy. This translates to a willingness to pay US$383 more for a high efficacy vaccine compared with the low efficacy vaccine. Knowledge of the relative importance of determinants of HIV vaccine acceptability is important to ensure the success of future vaccination programs. Future acceptability studies of hypothetical HIV vaccines should use more finely grained biomedical attributes, and could also improve the external validity of results by including more levels of the cost attribute.

Cathelicidin-like Helminth Defence Molecules (HDMs):Absence of Cytotoxic, Anti-microbial and Anti-protozoan Activities Imply a Specific Adaptation to Immune Modulation

Host defence peptides (HDPs) are expressed throughout the animal and plant kingdoms. They have multifunctional roles in the defence against infectious agents of mammals, possessing both bactericidal and immune-modulatory activities. We have identified a novel family of molecules secreted by helminth parasites (helminth defence molecules; HDMs) that exhibit similar structural and biochemical characteristics to the HDPs. Here, we have analyzed the functional activities of four HDMs derived from Schistosoma mansoni and Fasciola hepatica and compared them to human, mouse, bovine and sheep HDPs. Unlike the mammalian HDPs the helminth-derived HDMs show no antimicrobial activity and are non-cytotoxic to mammalian cells (macrophages and red blood cells). However, both the mammalian- and helminth-derived peptides suppress the activation of macrophages by microbial stimuli and alter the response of B cells to cytokine stimulation. Therefore, we hypothesise that HDMs represent a novel family of HDPs that evolved to regulate the immune responses of their mammalian hosts by retaining potent immune modulatory properties without causing deleterious cytotoxic effects.

Scalable black-box prediction models for multi-dimensional adaptation on NUMA multi-cores

This paper presents a scalable, statistical ‘black-box’ model for predicting the performance of parallel programs on multi-core non-uniform memory access (NUMA) systems. We derive a model with low overhead, by reducing data collection and model training time. The model can accurately predict the behaviour of parallel applications in response to changes in their concurrency, thread layout on NUMA nodes, and core voltage and frequency. We present a framework that applies the model to achieve significant energy and energy-delay-square (ED2) savings (9% and 25%, respectively) along with performance improvement (10% mean) on an actual 16-core NUMA system running realistic application workloads. Our prediction model proves substantially more accurate than previous efforts.

Teaching the physiology of adaptation to hypoxic stress with the aid of a classic paper on high altitude by Houston and Riley

Many pathological conditions exist where tissues exhibit hypoxia or low oxygen tension. Hypoxic hypoxia arises when there is a reduction in the amount of oxygen entering the blood and occurs in healthy people at high altitude. In 1946, research sponsored by the United States Navy led to the collection and subsequent publication of masses of data demonstrating the physiological consequences and adaptations of ascent to high altitude. This article describes how a figure from a 1947 paper from the American Physiological Society Legacy collection (Houston CS, Riley RL. Respiratory and circulatory changes during acclimatization to high altitude. Am J Physiol 149: 565-588) may be used to allow students to review their understanding of some of the generalized effects of hypoxia on the body. In particular, this figure summarizes some of the adaptive responses that take place in the oxygen transport system as a consequence of prolonged hypoxia.

mfx: Marginal Effects, Odds Ratios and Incidence Rate Ratios for GLMs

Estimates probit, logit, Poisson, negative binomial, and beta regression models, returning their marginal effects, odds ratios, or incidence rate ratios as an output.

Neolithic settlement at the woodland’s edge: palynological data and timber architecture in Orkney, Scotland

It has often been assumed that the islands of Orkney were essentially treeless throughout much of the Holocene, with any ‘scrub’ woodland having been destroyed by Neolithic farming communities by around 3500 cal. BC. This apparently open, hyper-oceanic environment would presumably have provided quite marginal conditions for human settlement, yet Neolithic communities flourished and the islands contain some of the most spectacular remains of this period in north-west Europe. The study of new Orcadian pollen sequences, in conjunction with the synthesis of existing data, indicates that the timing of woodland decline was not synchronous across the archipelago, beginning in the Mesolithic, and that in some areas woodland persisted into the Bronze Age. There is also evidence to suggest that woodland communities in Orkney were more diverse, and therefore that a wider range of resources was available to Neolithic people, than has previously been assumed. Recent archaeological investigations have revealed evidence for timber buildings at early Neolithic settlement sites, suggesting that the predominance of stone architecture in Neolithic Orkney may not have been due to a lack of timber as has been supposed. Rather than simply reflecting adaptation to resource constraints, the reasons behind the shift from timber to stone construction are more complex and encompass social, cultural and environmental factors.

Climate change response in Europe: What's the reality? Analysis of adaptation and mitigation plans from 200 urban areas in 11 countries

Urban areas are pivotal to global adaptation and mitigation efforts. But how do cities actually perform in terms of climate change response? This study sheds light on the state of urban climate change adaptation and mitigation planning across Europe. Europe is an excellent test case given its advanced environmental policies and high urbanization. We performed a detailed analysis of 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries and analysed the cities' climate change adaptation and mitigation plans. We investigate the regional distribution of plans, adaptation and mitigation foci and the extent to which planned greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions contribute to national and international climate objectives. To our knowledge, it is the first study of its kind as it does not rely on self-assessment (questionnaires or social surveys). Our results show that 35 % of European cities studied have no dedicated mitigation plan and 72 % have no adaptation plan. No city has an adaptation plan without a mitigation plan. One quarter of the cities have both an adaptation and a mitigation plan and set quantitative GHG reduction targets, but those vary extensively in scope and ambition. Furthermore, we show that if the planned actions within cities are nationally representative the 11 countries investigated would achieve a 37 % reduction in GHG emissions by 2050, translating into a 27 % reduction in GHG emissions for the EU as a whole. However, the actions would often be insufficient to reach national targets and fall short of the 80 % reduction in GHG emissions recommended to avoid global mean temperature rising by 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Efficient Marginal Likelihood Computation for Gaussian Process Regression

In a Bayesian learning setting, the posterior distribution of a predictive model arises from a trade-off between its prior distribution and the conditional likelihood of observed data. Such distribution functions usually rely on additional hyperparameters which need to be tuned in order to achieve optimum predictive performance; this operation can be efficiently performed in an Empirical Bayes fashion by maximizing the posterior marginal likelihood of the observed data. Since the score function of this optimization problem is in general characterized by the presence of local optima, it is necessary to resort to global optimization strategies, which require a large number of function evaluations. Given that the evaluation is usually computationally intensive and badly scaled with respect to the dataset size, the maximum number of observations that can be treated simultaneously is quite limited. In this paper, we consider the case of hyperparameter tuning in Gaussian process regression. A straightforward implementation of the posterior log-likelihood for this model requires O(N^3) operations for every iteration of the optimization procedure, where N is the number of examples in the input dataset. We derive a novel set of identities that allow, after an initial overhead of O(N^3), the evaluation of the score function, as well as the Jacobian and Hessian matrices, in O(N) operations. We prove how the proposed identities, that follow from the eigendecomposition of the kernel matrix, yield a reduction of several orders of magnitude in the computation time for the hyperparameter optimization problem. Notably, the proposed solution provides computational advantages even with respect to state of the art approximations that rely on sparse kernel matrices.

Genome-wide DNA profiling of marginal zone lymphomas identifies subtype-specific lesions with an impact on the clinical outcome

Marginal zone B-cell lymphomas (MZLs) have been divided into 3 distinct subtypes (extranodal MZLs of mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue [MALT] type, nodal MZLs, and splenic MZLs). Nevertheless, the relationship between the subtypes is still unclear. We performed a comprehensive analysis of genomic DNA copy number changes in a very large series of MZL cases with the aim of addressing this question. Samples from 218 MZL patients (25 nodal, 57 MALT, 134 splenic, and 2 not better specified MZLs) were analyzed with the Affymetrix Human Mapping 250K SNP arrays, and the data combined with matched gene expression in 33 of 218 cases. MALT lymphoma presented significantly more frequently gains at 3p, 6p, 18p, and del(6q23) (TNFAIP3/A20), whereas splenic MZLs was associated with del(7q31), del(8p). Nodal MZLs did not show statistically significant differences compared with MALT lymphoma while lacking the splenic MZLs-related 7q losses. Gains of 3q and 18q were common to all 3 subtypes. del(8p) was often present together with del(17p) (TP53). Although del(17p) did not determine a worse outcome and del(8p) was only of borderline significance, the presence of both deletions had a highly significant negative impact on the outcome of splenic MZLs.

Anytime Marginal MAP Inference

This paper presents a new anytime algorithm for the marginal MAP problem in graphical models of bounded treewidth. We show asymptotic convergence and theoretical error bounds for any fixed step. Experiments show that it compares well to a state-of-the-art systematic search algorithm.

Human Adaptation in Asian Palaeolithic:Hominin Dispersal and Behaviour during the Late Quaternary

This book examines the first human colonization of Asia and particularly the tropical environments of Southeast Asia during the Upper Pleistocene. In studyexamining the unique character of the Asian archaeological record, it reassesses long-accepted propositions about the development of human ‘modernity.’ Ryan J. Rabett reveals an evolutionarily relationship between colonization, the challenges encountered during this process – especially in relation to climatic and environmental change – and the forms of behaviour that emerged. This book argues that human ‘modernity’ is not something achieved in the remote past in one part of the world, but rather is a diverse, flexible, responsive, and on-going process of adaptation, one that continues to this day.