The reliability of R50 as a measure of vulnerability of food webs to sequential species deletions

Recent studies predict elevated and accelerating rates of species extinctions over the 21st century, due to climate change and habitat loss. Considering that such primary species loss may initiate cascades of secondary extinctions and push systems towards critical tipping points, we urgently need to increase our understanding of if certain sequences of species extinctions can be expected to be more devastating than others Most theoretical studies addressing this question have used a topological (non-dynamical) approach to analyse the probability that food webs will collapse, below a fixed threshold value in species richness, when subjected to different sequences of species loss. Typically, these studies have neither considered the possibility of dynamical responses of species, nor that conclusions may depend on the value of the collapse threshold. Here we analyse how sensitive conclusions on the importance of different species are to the threshold value of food web collapse. Using dynamical simulations, where we expose model food webs to a range of extinction sequences, we evaluate the reliability of the most frequently used index, R<inf>50</inf>, as a measure of food web robustness. In general, we find that R<inf>50</inf> is a reliable measure and that identification of destructive deletion sequences is fairly robust, within a moderate range of collapse thresholds. At the same time, however, focusing on R<inf>50</inf> only hides a lot of interesting information on the disassembly process and can, in some cases, lead to incorrect conclusions on the relative importance of species in food webs.

Can less be more? Comparison of an 8-item placement quality measure with the 50-item Dundee Ready Educational Environment Measure (DREEM)

Clinical clerks learn more than they are taught and not all they learn can be measured. As a result, curriculum leaders evaluate clinical educational environments. The quantitative Dundee Ready Environment Measure (DREEM) is a de facto standard for that purpose. Its 50 items and 5 subscales were developed by consensus. Reasoning that an instrument would perform best if it were underpinned by a clearly conceptualized link between environment and learning as well as psychometric evidence, we developed the mixed methods Manchester Clinical Placement Index (MCPI), eliminated redundant items, and published validity evidence for its 8 item and 2 subscale structure. Here, we set out to compare MCPI with DREEM. 104 students on full-time clinical placements completed both measures three times during a single academic year. There was good agreement and at least as good discrimination between placements with the smaller MCPI. Total MCPI scores and the mean score of its 5-item learning environment subscale allowed ten raters to distinguish between the quality of educational environments. Twenty raters were needed for the 3-item MCPI training subscale and the DREEM scale and its subscales. MCPI compares favourably with DREEM in that one-sixth the number of items perform at least as well psychometrically, it provides formative free text data, and it is founded on the widely shared assumption that communities of practice make good learning environments.

2P/Encke, the Taurid complex NEOs and the Maribo and Sutter's Mill meteorites

Aims. 2P/Encke is a short period comet that was discovered in 1786 and has been extensively observed and studied for more than 200years. The Taurid meteoroid stream has long been linked with 2P/Encke owing to a good match of their orbital elements, even thoughthe comet’s activity is not strong enough to explain the number of observed meteors. Various small near-Earth objects (NEOs) havebeen discovered with orbits that can be linked to 2P/Encke and the Taurid meteoroid stream. Maribo and Sutter’s Mill are CM typecarbonaceous chondrite that fell in Denmark on January 17, 2009 and April 22, 2012, respectively. Their pre-atmospheric orbits placethem in the middle of the Taurid meteoroid stream, which raises the intriguing possibility that comet 2P/Encke could be the parentbody of CM chondrites.
Methods. To investigate whether a relationship between comet 2P/Encke, the Taurid complex associated NEOs, and CM chondritesexists, we performed photometric and spectroscopic studies of these objects in the visible wavelength range. We observed 2P/Enckeand 10 NEOs on August 2, 2011 with the FORS instrument at the 8.2 m Very Large Telescope on Cerro Paranal (Chile).
Results. Images in the R filter, used to investigate the possible presence of cometary activity around the nucleus of 2P/Encke andthe NEOs, show that no resolved coma is present. None of the FORS spectra show the 700 nm absorption feature due to hydratedminerals that is seen in the CM chondrite meteorites. All objects show featureless spectra with moderate reddening slopes at λ < 800nm. Apart for 2003 QC10 and 1999 VT25, which show a flatter spectrum, the spectral slope of the observed NEOs is compatible withthat of 2P/Encke. However, most of the NEOs show evidence of a silicate absorption in lower S/N data at λ > 800 nm, which is notseen in 2P/Encke, which suggests that they are not related.
Conclusions. Despite similar orbits, we find no spectroscopic evidence for a link between 2P/Encke, the Taurid complex NEOs andthe Maribo and Sutter’s Mill meteorites. However, we cannot rule out a connection to the meteorites either, as the spectral differencesmay be caused by secondary alteration of the surfaces of the NEOs. 

"No Encores" The Royal Dublin Society Concert Archive Recitals in Retrospect: 1925-50

A large archive of sources for the RDS classical music recitals is extant in the Society’s Library, Ballsbridge, Dublin. The recitals were established in 1886 for the promotion of chamber music and in order to expose Dublin audiences to the works of the great composers. Extant in the collection are minute books; autographed programmes; newspaper cuttings which include previews, reviews and advertisements; correspondences with artists and agents; promotional material; selections of photographs; records of attendance, artists fees and takings; and volumes of printed music.
This paper will document the organisation, management and occurrence of the RDS classical music recitals for the period 1925 to 1950 and will encompass the opening of the current concert hall (The Members’ Hall, 1925), the Society’s bi-centenary celebrations (1931) and the continuance of the recitals within the context of the Second World War (1939- 45). The paper will examine and analyse the following: networks, repertoire and reception.
The RDS music committee established significant links with many performers and UK-based classical music agents. Recitalists include musicians of international renown; Myra Hess, Isolde Menges, Lili Kraus, Joseph Szigeti, Leon Goossens, Sir Hamilton Harty and The Hallé Orchestra, The Catterall Quartet and many local, Dublin-based musicians; Raidió Éireann Orchestra, Dublin String Orchestra, Dublin Philharmonic Orchestra and Culwick Choral Society. The compromises and collaborations in evidence between the music committee, agents and performers resulted in the presentation of varied and well-balanced programmes featuring sonatas, quartets, trios, concerti, overtures, symphonies and songs by composers including Beethoven, Mozart, Haydn and Brahms. Works by contemporary composers including Bax, Dohnanyi, Szymanowski and Suk were also regularly performed, as were works with an Irish influence or flavour. Audiences mainly consisted of members of the Society, music students were encouraged to attend at a reduced rate and reviews were regularly published in the Irish Times, Irish Independent and Irish Press.

Ophthalmology. 2011 Dec;118(12):2343-50. doi: 10.1016/j.ophtha.2011.06.016. Epub 2011 Sep 1. Randomized, controlled trial of an educational intervention to promote spectacle use in rural China: the see well to learn well study.

OBJECTIVE: To test an educational intervention promoting the purchase of spectacles among Chinese children. DESIGN: Randomized, controlled trial. PARTICIPANTS: Children in years 1 and 2 of all 20 junior and senior high schools (ages 12-17 years) in 3 rural townships in Guangdong, China. METHODS: Children underwent visual acuity (VA) testing, and parents of participants with presenting VA worse than 6/12 in either eye improving by more than 2 lines with cycloplegic refraction were recommended to purchase glasses. Children at 10 randomly selected schools received a lecture, video, and classroom demonstration promoting spectacle purchase. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-reported purchase of spectacles (primary outcome) and observed wear or possession of newly purchased glasses (secondary outcome) at follow-up examinations (mean, 219 ± 87 days after the baseline visit). RESULTS: Among 15 404 eligible children, examinations were completed for 6379 (74.6%) at intervention schools and 5044 (73.6%) at control schools. Spectacles were recommended for 2236 (35.1%) children at intervention schools and for 2212 (43.9%) at control schools. Of these, 417 (25.7%) intervention schools children and 537 (34.0%, P = 0.45) control schools children reported buying glasses. Predictors of purchase in regression models included female gender (P = 0.02), worse uncorrected VA (P < 0.001), and higher absolute value of refractive error (P = 0.001). Neither the rate of self-reported purchase of glasses or observed wear or possession of newly purchased glasses differed between control schools and intervention schools in mixed-effect logistic regression models. Among children not purchasing glasses, 21.7% had better-eye VA of worse than 6/18. CONCLUSIONS: An intervention based on extensive pilot testing and focus groups in the area failed to promote spectacle purchase or wear. The high burden of remaining uncorrected poor vision underscores the need to develop better interventions. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): The author(s) have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article.

Epidemiology, Patterns of Care, and Mortality for Patients With Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Intensive Care Units in 50 Countries

Importance Limited information exists about the epidemiology, recognition, management, and outcomes of patients with the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).

Objectives To evaluate intensive care unit (ICU) incidence and outcome of ARDS and to assess clinician recognition, ventilation management, and use of adjuncts—for example prone positioning—in routine clinical practice for patients fulfilling the ARDS Berlin Definition.

Design, Setting, and Participants The Large Observational Study to Understand the Global Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Failure (LUNG SAFE) was an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study of patients undergoing invasive or noninvasive ventilation, conducted during 4 consecutive weeks in the winter of 2014 in a convenience sample of 459 ICUs from 50 countries across 5 continents.

Exposures Acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was ICU incidence of ARDS. Secondary outcomes included assessment of clinician recognition of ARDS, the application of ventilatory management, the use of adjunctive interventions in routine clinical practice, and clinical outcomes from ARDS.

Results Of 29 144 patients admitted to participating ICUs, 3022 (10.4%) fulfilled ARDS criteria. Of these, 2377 patients developed ARDS in the first 48 hours and whose respiratory failure was managed with invasive mechanical ventilation. The period prevalence of mild ARDS was 30.0% (95% CI, 28.2%-31.9%); of moderate ARDS, 46.6% (95% CI, 44.5%-48.6%); and of severe ARDS, 23.4% (95% CI, 21.7%-25.2%). ARDS represented 0.42 cases per ICU bed over 4 weeks and represented 10.4% (95% CI, 10.0%-10.7%) of ICU admissions and 23.4% of patients requiring mechanical ventilation. Clinical recognition of ARDS ranged from 51.3% (95% CI, 47.5%-55.0%) in mild to 78.5% (95% CI, 74.8%-81.8%) in severe ARDS. Less than two-thirds of patients with ARDS received a tidal volume 8 of mL/kg or less of predicted body weight. Plateau pressure was measured in 40.1% (95% CI, 38.2-42.1), whereas 82.6% (95% CI, 81.0%-84.1%) received a positive end-expository pressure (PEEP) of less than 12 cm H2O. Prone positioning was used in 16.3% (95% CI, 13.7%-19.2%) of patients with severe ARDS. Clinician recognition of ARDS was associated with higher PEEP, greater use of neuromuscular blockade, and prone positioning. Hospital mortality was 34.9% (95% CI, 31.4%-38.5%) for those with mild, 40.3% (95% CI, 37.4%-43.3%) for those with moderate, and 46.1% (95% CI, 41.9%-50.4%) for those with severe ARDS.

Conclusions and Relevance Among ICUs in 50 countries, the period prevalence of ARDS was 10.4% of ICU admissions. This syndrome appeared to be underrecognized and undertreated and associated with a high mortality rate. These findings indicate the potential for improvement in the management of patients with ARDS.

50,000-years of vegetation and climate change in the southern Namib Desert, Pella, South Africa

This paper presents the first continuous pollen record from the southern Namib Desert spanning the last 50,000 years. Obtained from rock hyrax middens found near the town of Pella, South Africa, these data are used to reconstruct vegetation change and quantitative estimates of temperature and aridity. Results indicate that the last glacial period was characterised by increased water availability at the site relative to the Holocene. Changes in temperature and potential evapotranspiration appear to have played a significant role in determining the hydrologic balance. The record can be considered in two sections: 1) the last glacial period, when low temperatures favoured the development of more mesic Nama-Karoo vegetation at the site, with periods of increased humidity concurrent with increased coastal upwelling, both responding to lower global/regional temperatures; and 2) the Holocene, during which time high temperatures and potential evapotranspiration resulted in increased aridity and an expansion of the Desert Biome. During this latter
period, increases in upwelling intensity created drier conditions at the site.
Considered in the context of discussions of forcing mechanisms of regional climate change and environmental dynamics, the results from Pella stand in clear contrast with many inferences of terrestrial environmental change derived from regional marine records. Observations of a strong precessional signal and interpretations of increased humidity during phases of high local summer insolation in the marine records are not consistent with the data from Pella. Similarly, while high percentages of Restionaceae pollen has been observed in marine sediments during the last glacial period, they do not exceed 1% of the assemblage from Pella, indicating that no significant expansion of the Fynbos Biome has occurred during the last 50,000 years. These findings pose interesting questions regarding the nature of environmental change in southwestern Africa, and the significance of the diverse records that have been obtained from the region.

Electron-impact excitation of Li to high principal quantum numbers

The time-dependent close-coupling method is used to calculate electron-impact excitation cross sections for the Li(2s)--{\textgreater}Li(nl) and Li(2p)--{\textgreater}Li(nl) transitions at incident energies just above the ionization threshold. The implementation of the time-dependent close-coupling method on a nonuniform lattice allows the study of continuum-coupling effects in excitations to high principal quantum number, i.e., n{\textless}=10. Good agreement is found with R-matrix with pseudostates calculations, which also include continuum-coupling effects, for excitations to low principal quantum number, i.e., n{\textless}=4. Poor agreement is found with standard distorted-wave calculations for excitations to all principal quantum numbers, with differences still at the 50% level for n=10. We are able to give guidance as to the accuracy expected in the n3 extrapolation of nonperturbative close-coupling calculations of low n cross sections and rate coefficients.

The 2p interloper resonances in collisions

Ab initio electron scattering calculations using the R -matrix approach have been performed for within a three-state valence configuration-interaction model (VCI). The lowest three electronic target states ( , and the ) of this molecular nitrogen cation are included in the close-coupling method, with each state being represented by a valence CI approximation. From a detailed analysis of the resonance structure found in our work for the symmetries we find four prominent Rydberg series of the type , , , and a interloper resonance. This interloper molecular resonance associated with the B state of is seen to cause distortions of the resulting resonance spectra. A comparison of our total cross sections for the X - B transition shows excellent agreement with the available experimental data.

Effective collision strengths for fine-structure forbidden transitions among the 2s22p3 levels of S x

Effective collision strengths for electron-impact excitation of the N-like ion S x are calculated in the close-coupling approximation using the multichannel R-matrix method. Specific attention is given to the 10 astrophysically important fine-structure forbidden transitions among the ⁴S^O, ²D^o and ²P^o levels in the 2s²2p³ ground configuration. The total (e^- + ion) wavefunction is expanded in terms of the 11 lowest LS eigenstates of S x, and each eigenstate is represented by extensive configuration-interaction wavefunctions. The collision strengths obtained are thermally averaged over a Maxwellian distribution of velocities, for all 10 fine-structure transitions, over the range of electron temperatures log T(K) = 4.6-6.7 (the range appropriate for astrophysical applications). The present effective collision strengths are the only results currently available for these fine-structure transition rates.