Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electrical energy storage and Smart Grid technologies to integrate the next generation of Renewable Power Systems

The growth of renewable power sources, distributed generation and the potential for alternative fuelled modes of transport such as electric vehicles has led to concerns over the ability of existing grid systems to facilitate such diverse portfolio mixes in already congested power systems. Internationally the growth in renewable energy sources is driven by government policy targets associated with the uncertainties of fossil fuel supplies, environmental issues and a move towards energy independence. Power grids were traditionally designed as vertically integrated centrally managed entities with fully dispatchable generating plant. Renewable power sources, distributed generation and alternative fuelled vehicles will place these power systems under additional stresses and strains due to their different operational characteristics. Energy storage and smart grid technologies are widely proposed as the tools to integrate these future diverse portfolio mixes within the more conventional power systems. The choice in these technologies is determined not only by their location on the grid system, but by the diversification in the power portfolio mix, the electricity market and the operational demands. This paper presents a high level technical and economic overview of the role and relevance of electrical energy storage and smart grid technologies in the next generation of renewable power systems.

Crime, justice and the legitimacy of military power in the international sphere

This article examines how a discourse of crime and justice is beginning to play a significant role in justifying international military operations. It suggests that although the coupling of war with crime and justice is not a new phenomenon, its present manifestations invite careful consideration of the connection between crime and political theory. It starts by reviewing the notion of sovereignty to look then at the history of the criminalisation of war and the emergence of new norms to constrain sovereign states. In this context, it examines the three ways in which military force has recently been authorised: in Iraq, in Libya and through drones in Yemen, Pakistan and Somalia. It argues the contemporary coupling of military technology with notions of crime and justice allows the reiteration of the perpetration of crimes by the powerful and the representation of violence as pertaining to specific dangerous populations in the space of the international. It further suggests that this authorises new architectures of authority, fundamentally based on military power as a source of social power.

Transient Stability Analysis of a Power System with High Wind Penetration

This paper presents transient stability analysis for a power system with high wind penetration. The transient stability has been evaluated based on two stability criteria: rotor angle stability and voltage stability. A modified IEEE-14 bus system has been used as the main study network and simulations have been conducted at several wind power penetration levels, defined as a fraction of total system generation. A wide range of scenarios have been presented based on the wind farm voltage at the point of connection, i.e. low voltage (LV) distribution level and high voltage (HV) transmission level, and the type of wind generator technology, i.e. fixed speed induction generator (FSIG) and doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG).

Multiobjective design optimization of IGBT power modules considering power cycling and thermal cycling

Insulated-gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) power modules find widespread use in numerous power conversion applications where their reliability is of significant concern. Standard IGBT modules are fabricated for general-purpose applications while little has been designed for bespoke applications. However, conventional design of IGBTs can be improved by the multiobjective optimization technique. This paper proposes a novel design method to consider die-attachment solder failures induced by short power cycling and baseplate solder fatigue induced by the thermal cycling which are among major failure mechanisms of IGBTs. Thermal resistance is calculated analytically and the plastic work design is obtained with a high-fidelity finite-element model, which has been validated experimentally. The objective of minimizing the plastic work and constrain functions is formulated by the surrogate model. The nondominated sorting genetic algorithm-II is used to search for the Pareto-optimal solutions and the best design. The result of this combination generates an effective approach to optimize the physical structure of power electronic modules, taking account of historical environmental and operational conditions in the field.

Efficiency assessment of electricity power generation on Ireland’s Single Electricity Market by Data Envelopment Analysis

The efficiency of generation plants is an important measure for evaluating the operating performance. The objective of this paper is to evaluate electricity power generation by conducting an All-Island-Generator-Efficiency-Study (AIGES) for the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland by utilising a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach. An operational performance efficiency index is defined and pursued for the year 2008. The economic activities of electricity generation units/plants examined in this paper are characterized by numerous input and output indicators. Constant returns to scale (CRS) and variable returns to scale (VRS) type DEA models are employed in the analysis. Also a slacks based analysis indicates the level of inefficiency for each variable examined. The findings from this study provide a general ranking and evaluation but also facilitate various interesting efficiency comparisons between generators by fuel type.

What do high penetrations of wind power mean for gas generation?

Dependency on thermal generation and continued wind power growth in Europe due to renewable energy and greenhouse gas emissions targets has resulted in an interesting set of challenges for power systems. The variability of wind power impacts dispatch and balancing by grid operators, power plant operations by generating companies and market wholesale costs. This paper quantifies the effects of high wind power penetration on power systems with a dependency on gas generation using a realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model. The test system is analyzed under two scenarios, with and without wind, over one year. The key finding of this preliminary study is that despite increased ramping requirements in the wind scenario, the unit cost of electricity due to sub-optimal operation of gas generators does not show substantial deviation from the no wind scenario.

Efficacy of Wind Power in Mitigation of CO2 Emission from the Irish Electrical Grid

The results in this paper are based on a data set containing system demand, wind generation and CO2 emission between Jan 2010 and Sep 2013. The data was recorded at 15 minute intervals and reflects the macroscopic operation of the Republic of Ireland's electrical grid. The data was analyzed by investigating how daily wind generation effected daily CO2 emission across multiple days with equivalent daily demand. A figure for wind turbine efficiency was determined by dividing the CO2 mitigation potential of wind power by the CO2 intensity of the grid; both in units of Tonnes of CO2 per MWh. The yearly wind power efficiency appears to have increased by 5.6% per year, now standing around 90%. Over the four years significant regularity was observed in the profiles of wind turbine efficiency against daily demand. It appears that the efficiency profile has moved in recent years so that maximum efficiency coincides with most frequent demand.

Measurement of electromagnetic pulses generated during interactions of high power lasers with solid targets

A target irradiated with a high power laser pulse, blows off a large amount of charge and as a consequence the target itself becomes a generator of electromagnetic pulses (EMP) owing to high return current flowing to the ground through the target holder. The first measurement of the magnetic field induced by the neutralizing current reaching a value of a few kA was performed with the use of an inductive target probe at the PALS Laser Facility (Cikhardt et al. Rev. Sci. Instrum. 85 (2014) 103507). A full description of EMP generation should contain information on the spatial distribution and temporal variation of the electromagnetic field inside and outside of the interaction chamber. For this reason, we consider the interaction chamber as a resonant cavity in which different modes of EMP oscillate for hundreds of nanoseconds, until the EMP is transmitted outside through the glass windows and EM waves are attenuated. Since the experimental determination of the electromagnetic field distribution is limited by the number of employed antennas, a mapping of the electromagnetic field has to be integrated with numerical simulations. Thus, this work reports on a detailed numerical mapping of the electromagnetic field inside the interaction chamber at the PALS Laser Facility (covering a frequency spectrum from 100 MHz to 3 GHz) using the commercial code COMSOL Multiphysics 5.2. Moreover we carried out a comparison of the EMP generated in the parallelepiped-like interaction chamber used in the Vulcan Petawatt Laser Facility at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, against that produced in the spherical interaction chamber of PALS.

Review of virtual power plant applications for the power system management and V2G market development

Utilization of renewable energy sources and energy storage systems is increasing with fostering new policies on energy industries. However, the increase of distributed generation hinders the reliability of power systems. In order to stabilize them, a virtual power plant emerges as a novel power grid management system. The VPP has a role to make a participation of different distributed energy resources and energy storage systems. This paper defines core technology of the VPP which are demand response and ancillary service concerning about Korea, America and Europe cases. It also suggests application solutions of the VPP to V2G market for restructuring national power industries in Korea.