Do fertility transitions influence infant mortality declines? Evidence from early modern Germany

The timing and sequencing of fertility transitions and early-life mortality declines in historical Western societies indicate that reductions in sibship (number of siblings) may have contributed to improvements in infant health. Surprisingly, however, this demographic relationship has received little attention in empirical research. We outline the difficulties associated with establishing the effect of sibship on infant mortality and discuss the inherent bias associated with conventional empirical approaches. We offer a solution that permits an empirical test of this relationship while accounting for reverse causality and potential omitted variable bias. Our approach is illustrated by evaluating the causal impact of family size on infant mortality using genealogical data from 13 German parishes spanning the sixteenth, seventeenth, eighteenth, and nineteenth centuries. Overall, our findings do not support the hypothesis that declining fertility led to increased infant survival probabilities in historical populations.

Is Mortality Spatial or Social?

Mortality modelling for the purposes of demographic forecasting and actuarial pricing is generally done at an aggregate level using national data. Modelling at this level fails to capture the variation in mortality within country and potentially leads to a mis-specification of mortality forecasts for a subset of the population. This can have detrimental effects for pricing and reserving in the actuarial context. In this paper we consider mortality rates at a regional level and analyse the variation in those rates. We consider whether variation in mortality rates within a country can be explained using local economic and social variables. Using Northern Ireland data on mortality and measures of deprivation we identify the variables explaining mortality variation. We create a population polarisation variable and find that this variable is significant in explaining some of the variation in mortality rates. Further, we consider whether spatial and non-spatial models have a part to play in explaining mortality differentials.

Drivers of inequality in disability-free expectancy at birth and age 85 across space and time in Great Britain

Background: Although mortality and health inequalities at birth have increased both geographically and in socioeconomic terms, little is known about inequalities at age 85, the fastest growing sector of the population in Great Britain (GB).

Aim: To determine whether trends and drivers of inequalities in life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) at age 85 between 1991 and 2001 are the same as those at birth.

Methods: DFLE at birth and age 85 for 1991 and 2001 by gender were calculated for each local authority in GB using the Sullivan method. Regression modelling was used to identify area characteristics (rurality, deprivation, social class composition, ethnicity, unemployment, retirement migration) that could explain inequalities in LE and DFLE.

Results: Similar to values at birth, LE and DFLE at age 85 both increased between 1991 and 2001 (though DFLE increased less than LE) and gaps across local areas widened (and more for DFLE than LE). The significantly greater increases in LE and DFLE at birth for less-deprived compared with more-deprived areas were still partly present at age 85. Considering all factors, inequalities in DFLE at birth were largely driven by social class composition and unemployment rate, but these associations appear to be less influential at age 85.

Conclusions: Inequalities between areas in LE and DFLE at birth and age 85 have increased over time though factors explaining inequalities at birth (mainly social class and unemployment rates) appear less important for inequalities at age 85.

Estimating the incidence, prevalence and true cost of asthma in the UK: Secondary analysis of national stand-alone and linked databases in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales-a study protocol

Introduction Asthma is now one of the most common long-term conditions in the UK. It is therefore important to develop a comprehensive appreciation of the healthcare and societal costs in order to inform decisions on care provision and planning. We plan to build on our earlier estimates of national prevalence and costs from asthma by filling the data gaps previously identified in relation to healthcare and broadening the field of enquiry to include societal costs. This work will provide the first UK-wide estimates of the costs of asthma. In the context of asthma for the UK and its member countries (ie, England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales), we seek to: (1) produce a detailed overview of estimates of incidence, prevalence and healthcare utilisation; (2) estimate health and societal costs; (3) identify any remaining information gaps and explore the feasibility of filling these and (4) provide insights into future research that has the potential to inform changes in policy leading to the provision of more cost-effective care.

Methods and analysis Secondary analyses of data from national health surveys, primary care, prescribing, emergency care, hospital, mortality and administrative data sources will be undertaken to estimate prevalence, healthcare utilisation and outcomes from asthma. Data linkages and economic modelling will be undertaken in an attempt to populate data gaps and estimate costs. Separate prevalence and cost estimates will be calculated for each of the UK-member countries and these will then be aggregated to generate UK-wide estimates.

Ethics and dissemination Approvals have been obtained from the NHS Scotland Information Services Division's Privacy Advisory Committee, the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Collaboration Review System, the NHS South-East Scotland Research Ethics Service and The University of Edinburgh's Centre for Population Health Sciences Research Ethics Committee. We will produce a report for Asthma-UK, submit papers to peer-reviewed journals and construct an interactive map.

Automated versus non-automated weaning for reducing the duration of mechanical ventilation for critically ill adults and children: a cochrane systematic review and meta-analysis

IntroductionAutomated weaning systems may improve adaptation of mechanical support for a patient’s ventilatory needs and facilitate systematic and early recognition of their ability to breathe spontaneously and the potential for discontinuation of ventilation. Our objective was to compare mechanical ventilator weaning duration for critically ill adults and children when managed with automated systems versus non-automated strategies. Secondary objectives were to determine differences in duration of ventilation, intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital length of stay (LOS), mortality, and adverse events.MethodsElectronic databases were searched to 30 September 2013 without language restrictions. We also searched conference proceedings; trial registration websites; and article reference lists. Two authors independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias. We combined data using random-effects modelling.ResultsWe identified 21 eligible trials totalling 1,676 participants. Pooled data from 16 trials indicated that automated systems reduced the geometric mean weaning duration by 30% (95% confidence interval (CI) 13% to 45%), with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 87%, P <0.00001). Reduced weaning duration was found with mixed or medical ICU populations (42%, 95% CI 10% to 63%) and Smartcare/PS™ (28%, 95% CI 7% to 49%) but not with surgical populations or using other systems. Automated systems reduced ventilation duration with no heterogeneity (10%, 95% CI 3% to 16%) and ICU LOS (8%, 95% CI 0% to 15%). There was no strong evidence of effect on mortality, hospital LOS, reintubation, self-extubation and non-invasive ventilation following extubation. Automated systems reduced prolonged mechanical ventilation and tracheostomy. Overall quality of evidence was high.ConclusionsAutomated systems may reduce weaning and ventilation duration and ICU stay. Due to substantial trial heterogeneity an adequately powered, high quality, multi-centre randomized controlled trial is needed.

Statin Use and Survival from Lung Cancer: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background: Preclinical evidence from lung cancer cell lines and animal models suggest that statins could have anticancer properties. We investigated whether statin users had reduced risk of cancer-specific mortality in a population based cohort of lung cancer patients.
Methods: Newly diagnosed lung cancer patients, from 1998 to 2009, were identified from English cancer registry data and linked to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, providing prescription records, and to Office of National Statistics mortality data up to 2012. Cox regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) for cancer-specific mortality and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by statin use before and after diagnosis and to adjust these HRs for potential confounders.
Results: In 3,638 lung cancer patients, there was some evidence that statin use after diagnosis was associated with reduced lung cancer-specific mortality (adjusted HR=0.89, 95% CI 0.78, 1.02; P=0.09). Associations were more marked after 12 prescriptions (adjusted HR=0.81, 95% CI 0.67, 0.98; P=0.03) and when lipophilic statins were investigated (adjusted HR=0.81, 95% CI 0.70, 0.94; P=0.01) but were attenuated in some sensitivity analyses. Furthermore, in 11,051 lung cancer patients, statin use before diagnosis was associated with reduced lung cancer-specific mortality (adjusted HR=0.88, 95% CI, 0.83, 0.93; P<0.001).
Conclusions: There was some evidence that lung cancer patients who used statins, and particularly simvastatin, had reduced rates of cancer-specific mortality.
 Impact: These findings should first be confirmed in observational studies, but provide some support for conducting randomized controlled trials of simvastatin as adjuvant cancer therapy in lung cancer patients.

The effect of level of straw bale provision on the behaviour and leg health of commercial broiler chickens

This study aimed to assess the effect of the number of straw bales (SBs) provided on the behaviour and leg health of commercial broiler chickens. Houses containing ~23 000 broiler chickens were assigned to one of two treatments: (1) access to 30 SBs per house, ‘30SB’ or (2) access to 45 SB per house, ‘45SB’. This equated to bale densities of 1 bale/44 m2 and 1 bale/29 m2 of floor space within houses, respectively. Treatments were applied in one of two houses on a commercial farm, and were replicated over six production cycles. Both houses had windows and were also artificially lit. Behaviour was observed in weeks 3 to5 of the cycle. This involved observations of general behaviour and activity, gait scores (0: perfect to 5: unable to walk) and latency to lie (measured in seconds from when a bird had been encouraged to stand). Production performance and environmental parameters were also measured. SB density had no significant effect on activity levels (P>0.05) or walking ability (P>0.05). However, the average latency to lie was greater in 30SB birds compared with 45SB birds (P<0.05). The incidence of hock burn and podo dermatitis, average BW at slaughter and levels of mortality and culling were unaffected by SB density (P>0.05). The results from this study suggest that increasing SB levels from 1 bale/44 m2 to 1 bale/29 m2 floor space does not lead to significant improvements in the welfare of commercial broiler chickens in windowed houses.

Lack of genetic structure and evidence for long-distance dispersal in ash (Fraxinus excelsior) populations under threat from an emergent fungal pathogen: implications for restorative planting

Genetic analysis on populations of European ash (Fraxinus excelsior) throughout Ireland was carried out to determine the levels and patterns of genetic diversity in naturally seeded trees in ash woodlands and hedgerows, with the aim of informing conservation and replanting strategies in the face of potential loss of trees as a result of ash dieback. Samples from 33 sites across Northern Ireland and three sites in the Republic of Ireland were genotyped for eight nuclear and ten chloroplast microsatellites. Levels of diversity were high (mean A R = 10.53; mean H O = 0.709; mean H E = 0.765) and were similar to those in Great Britain and continental Europe, whilst levels of population genetic differentiation based on nuclear microsatellites were extremely low (Φ ST = 0.0131). Levels of inbreeding (mean F IS = 0.067) were significantly lower than those reported for populations from Great Britain. Fine-scale analysis of seed dispersal indicated potential for dispersal over hundreds of metres. Our results suggest that ash woodlands across Ireland could be treated as a single management unit, and thus native material from anywhere in Ireland could be used as a source for replanting. In addition, high potential for dispersal has implications for recolonization processes post-ash dieback (Chalara fraxinea) infection, and could aid in our assessment of the capacity of ash to shift its range in response to global climate change.

Aspirin therapy in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is associated with reduced intensive care unit mortality: a prospective analysis

INTRODUCTION: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a common clinical syndrome with high mortality and long-term morbidity. To date there is no effective pharmacological therapy. Aspirin therapy has recently been shown to reduce the risk of developing ARDS, but the effect of aspirin on established ARDS is unknown.

METHODS: In a single large regional medical and surgical ICU between December 2010 and July 2012, all patients with ARDS were prospectively identified and demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were recorded retrospectively. Aspirin usage, both pre-hospital and during intensive care unit (ICU) stay, was included. The primary outcome was ICU mortality. We used univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess the impact of these variables on ICU mortality.

RESULTS: In total, 202 patients with ARDS were included; 56 (28%) of these received aspirin either pre-hospital, in the ICU, or both. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, aspirin therapy, given either before or during hospital stay, was associated with a reduction in ICU mortality (odds ratio (OR) 0.38 (0.15 to 0.96) P = 0.04). Additional factors that predicted ICU mortality for patients with ARDS were vasopressor use (OR 2.09 (1.05 to 4.18) P = 0.04) and APACHE II score (OR 1.07 (1.02 to 1.13) P = 0.01). There was no effect upon ICU length of stay or hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION: Aspirin therapy was associated with a reduced risk of ICU mortality. These data are the first to demonstrate a potential protective role for aspirin in patients with ARDS. Clinical trials to evaluate the role of aspirin as a pharmacological intervention for ARDS are needed.

Fluid balance, intradialytic hypotension, and outcomes in critically ill patients undergoing renal replacement therapy: a cohort study

Introduction: In this cohort study, we explored the relationship between fluid balance, intradialytic hypotension and outcomes in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) who received renal replacement therapy (RRT).

Methods: We analysed prospectively collected registry data on patients older than 16 years who received RRT for at least two days in an intensive care unit at two university-affiliated hospitals. We used multivariable logistic regression to determine the relationship between mean daily fluid balance and intradialytic hypotension, both over seven days following RRT initiation, and the outcomes of hospital mortality and RRT dependence in survivors.

Results: In total, 492 patients were included (299 male (60.8%), mean (standard deviation (SD)) age 62.9 (16.3) years); 251 (51.0%) died in hospital. Independent risk factors for mortality were mean daily fluid balance (odds ratio (OR) 1.36 per 1000 mL positive (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18 to 1.57), intradialytic hypotension (OR 1.14 per 10% increase in days with intradialytic hypotension (95% CI 1.06 to 1.23)), age (OR 1.15 per five-year increase (95% CI 1.07 to 1.25)), maximum sequential organ failure assessment score on days 1 to 7 (OR 1.21 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.29)), and Charlson comorbidity index (OR 1.28 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.44)); higher baseline creatinine (OR 0.98 per 10 mu mol/L (95% CI 0.97 to 0.996)) was associated with lower risk of death. Of 241 hospital survivors, 61 (25.3%) were RRT dependent at discharge. The only independent risk factor for RRT dependence was pre-existing heart failure (OR 3.13 (95% CI 1.46 to 6.74)). Neither mean daily fluid balance nor intradialytic hypotension was associated with RRT dependence in survivors. Associations between these exposures and mortality were similar in sensitivity analyses accounting for immortal time bias and dichotomising mean daily fluid balance as positive or negative. In the subgroup of patients with data on pre-RRT fluid balance, fluid overload at RRT initiation did not modify the association of mean daily fluid balance with mortality.

Conclusions: In this cohort of patients with AKI requiring RRT, a more positive mean daily fluid balance and intradialytic hypotension were associated with hospital mortality but not with RRT dependence at hospital discharge in survivors.

Statin use after colorectal cancer diagnosis and survival: a population-based cohort study

PURPOSE: To investigate whether statins used after colorectal cancer diagnosis reduce the risk of colorectal cancer-specific mortality in a cohort of patients with colorectal cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: A cohort of 7,657 patients with newly diagnosed stage I to III colorectal cancer were identified from 1998 to 2009 from the National Cancer Data Repository (comprising English cancer registry data). This cohort was linked to the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink, which provided prescription records, and to mortality data from the Office of National Statistics (up to 2012) to identify 1,647 colorectal cancer-specific deaths. Time-dependent Cox regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) for cancer-specific mortality and 95% CIs by postdiagnostic statin use and to adjust these HRs for potential confounders.

RESULTS: Overall, statin use after a diagnosis of colorectal cancer was associated with reduced colorectal cancer-specific mortality (fully adjusted HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.61 to 0.84). A dose-response association was apparent; for example, a more marked reduction was apparent in colorectal cancer patients using statins for more than 1 year (adjusted HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.79). A reduction in all-cause mortality was also apparent in statin users after colorectal cancer diagnosis (fully adjusted HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.84).

CONCLUSION: In this large population-based cohort, statin use after diagnosis of colorectal cancer was associated with longer rates of survival.

Evaluation of the Retinal Vasculature in Hypertension and Chronic Kidney Disease in an elderly population of Irish nuns

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and hypertension are global public health problems associated with considerable morbidity, premature mortality and attendant healthcare costs. Previous studies have highlighted that non-invasive examination of the retinal microcirculation can detect microvascular pathology that is associated with systemic disorders of the circulatory system such as hypertension. We examined the associations between retinal vessel caliber (RVC) and fractal dimension (DF), with both hypertension and CKD in elderly Irish nuns.

Methods: Data from 1233 participants in the cross-sectional observational Irish Nun Eye Study (INES) were assessed from digital photographs with a standardized protocol using computer-assisted software. Multivariate regression analyses were used to assess associations with hypertension and CKD, with adjustment for age, body mass index (BMI), refraction, fellow eye RVC, smoking, alcohol consumption, ischemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular accident (CVA), diabetes and medication use.

Results: In total, 1122 (91%) participants (mean age: 76.3 [range: 56-100] years) had gradable retinal images of sufficient quality for blood vessel assessment. Hypertension was significantly associated with a narrower central retinal arteriolar equivalent (CRAE) in a fully adjusted analysis (P = 0.002; effect size= -2.16 μm; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: -3.51, -0.81 μm). No significant associations between other retinal vascular parameters and hypertension or between any retinal vascular parameters and CKD were found.

Conclusions: Individuals with hypertension have significantly narrower retinal arterioles which may afford an earlier opportunity for tailored prevention and treatment options to optimize the structure and function of the microvasculature, providing additional clinical utility. No significant associations between retinal vascular parameters and CKD were detected.

Genetic provenance and best practice woodland management: a case study in native alder (Alnus glutinosa)

In recent years, the native woodlands of Europe, including those of Britain and Ireland, have increasingly come under threat from a range of biotic and abiotic factors, and are therefore a conservation priority demanding careful management in order to realise their inherent ecological and cultural benefits. Because the distribution of genetic variation across populations and regions is increasingly considered an important component of woodland management, we carried out a population genetic analysis on black alder (Alnus glutinosa) across Northern Ireland in order to inform “best practice” strategies. Our findings suggest that populations harbour high levels of genetic diversity, with very little differentiation between populations. Significant F IS values were observed in over half of the populations analysed, however, which could reflect inbreeding as a result of the patchy occurrence of alder in Northern Ireland, with scattered, favourable damp habitats being largely isolated from each other by extensive tracts of farmland. Although there is no genetic evidence to support the broad-scale implementation of tree seed zones along the lines of those proposed for native woodlands in Great Britain, we suggest that the localised occurrence of rare chloroplast haplotypes should be taken into account on a case-by-case basis. This, coupled with the identification of populations containing high genetic diversity and that are broadly representative of the region as a whole, will provide a sound genetic basis for woodland management, both in alder and more generally for species that exhibit low levels of genetic differentiation.

Innovative interprofessional teaching session on labour and childbirth for undergraduate medical and midwifery students

There is an increasing recognition of the need to improve interprofessional relationships within clinical practice (Midwifery 2020, 2010). Evidence supports the assertion that healthcare professionals who are able to communicate and work effectively together and who have a mutual respect and understanding for one another’s roles will provide a higher standard of care (McPherson et al, 2001; Miers et al, 2005; Begley, 2008). The joint Royal College of Obstetrics & Gynaecologists(RCOG) / Royal College of Midwives (RCM) report (2008 Page 8) on clinical learning environment and recruitment recommended that “Inter-professional learning strategies should be introduced and supported at an early stage in the medical and midwifery undergraduate students' experience and continued throughout training.” Providing interprofessional education within a University setting offers an opportunity for a non-threatening learning environment where students can develop confidence and build collaborative working relationships with one another (Saxell et al, 2009).Further research supports the influence of effective team working on increased client satisfaction. Additionally it identifies that the integration of interprofessional learning into a curriculum improves students’ abilities to interact professionally and provides a better understanding of role identification within the workplace than students who have only been exposed to uniprofessional education (Meterko et al, 2004; Pollard and Miers, 2008; Siassakos, et al, 2009; Wilhelmsson et al, 2011; Murray-Davis et al, 2012). An interprofessional education indicative has been developed by teaching staff from the School of Nursing and Midwifery and School of Medicine at Queen’s University Belfast. The aim of the collaboration was to enhance interprofessional learning by providing an opportunity for medical students and midwifery students to interact and communicate prior to medical students undertaking their obstetrics and gynaecology placements. This has improved medical students placement experience by facilitating them to learn about the process of birth and familiarisation of the delivery suite environment and it also has the potential to enhance interprofessional relationships. Midwifery students benefit through the provision of an opportunity to teach and facilitate learning in relation to normal labour and birth and has provided them with an opportunity to build stronger and more positive relationships with another profession. This opportunity also provides a positive, confidence building forum where midwifery students utilise teaching and learning strategies which would be transferable to their professional role as registered midwives. The midwifery students were provided with an outline agenda in relation to content for the workshop, but then were allowed creative licence with regard to delivery of the workshop. The interactive workshops are undertaken within the University’s clinical education centre, utilising low fidelity simulation. The sessions are delivered 6 times per year and precede the medical students’ obstetric/gynaecology placement. All 4th year medical and final year midwifery students have an opportunity to participate. Preliminary evaluations of the workshops have been positive from both midwifery and medical students. The teaching sessions provided both midwifery and medical students with an introduction to inter professional learning and gave them an opportunity to learn about and respect each other’s roles. The midwifery students have commented on the enjoyable aspects of team working for preparing for the workshop and also the confidence gained from teaching medical students. The medical students have evaluated the teaching by midwifery students positively and felt that it lowered their anxiety levels going into the labour setting. A number of midwifery and medical students have subsequently worked with one another within the practice setting which has been recognised as beneficial. Both Schools have recognised the benefits of interprofessional education and have subsequently made a commitment to embed it within each curriculum.

Killing Themselves Slowly: India and China's Bad Habits

The world has experienced a public-health miracle in the past half century, as cleaner water, new health technologies, better diet and a host of other improvements have sharply reduced mortality and extended life expectancy in poor countries by as much as 20 years. A substantial portion of those gains has been realized through improvements in infant and child survival. However, the increase in income that was both a cause and effect of this miracle brought with it a new and ironic threat: a steep rise in non-communicable diseases (NCDs) like heart ailments and cancer.