Understanding Risk: Contributions from the Journal of Risk and Governance

During recent years, news headlines have been rife with criticisms of the risk management practices of public and private sector entities. These criticisms have often been accompanied by calls for greater transparency in the way government entities manage risks and communicate dangers to the public. Similarly, in the private sector, the internationalisation of economic activity has heightened concerns over the potential adverse implications of mismanagement and financial scandals, and has led to calls for greater regulation and supervision. While the responses of public sector agencies and private sector actors to these challenges have differed, they share a common acknowledgement that effective governance relies on the pro-active identification, assessment, and management of risks as well as appropriate regulatory frameworks.

This edited book covers a number of divergent topics illustrating the emergence of several novel themes in the area of economic and social risks. As a communality, these novel themes relate to the complexity in which human activity in this late stage of capitalist development is embedded. This risk-generating complexity, in turn, can be observed at several levels, including workplace hazards, governance problems within the private sector or the intersection between public and private, and in relation to the economic risks faced by larger entities such as national governments.

Understanding Risk: Recent Contributions from the Journal of Risk and Governance

Following on from the format of the previous Book Understanding Risk: Contributions from the Journal of Risk and Governance, this collection of recent contributions (including work by the editor) this book is divided in three sections .  The first section examines issues relating to corporate governance in the private sector, with emphasis being placed on issues of 'Board Decision Making,' Earnings Management and Audit Committee Effectiveness'  and ' Corporate Governance Failures.'  These contributions are complemented by the second sections which looks at governance and risk issues affecting the public sector, with a focus being places on 'Public Private Partnerships' and regulation of activities in the Life Sciences.'  Section three focuses on societal risk management in relation to health, safety and the environment.  In this context, contributions are presented in relation to major debates surrounding 'Rising Trends in Cancer Cases,' dilemmas surrounding 'Medical Self Help,' 'Mental Health Policy' and the use of 'Information Technology in Health Care.'

Risk and the Politics of Public Health:A Critical Review

Twentieth century public health initiatives have been crucially informed by perceptions and constructions of risk. Notions of risk identification, assessment and mitigation have guided political and institutional actions even before these concepts became an explicit part of the language of public administration and policy making. Past analyses investigating the link between risk perceptions and public health are relatively rare, and where researchers have investigated this nexus, it has typically been assumed that the collective identification of health risks has led to progressive improvements in public health activities.
Risk and the Politics of Public Health addresses this gap by presenting a detailed critical historical analysis of the evolution of risk thinking within medical and health related discourses. Grouped around the four core themes of 'immigration', 'race', 'armed conflict' and 'detention and prevention' this book highlights the innovative capacity of risk related concepts as well as their vulnerability to the dysfunctional effects of dominant social ideologies. Risk and the Politics of Public Health is an essential reference for those who seek to understand the interplay of concepts of risk and public health throughout history as well as those who wish to gain a critical understanding of the social dynamics which have underpinned, and continue to underpin, this complex interaction.

An efficient and robust case sorting for algorithm for transient stability assessment

An efficient and robust case sorting algorithm based on Extended Equal Area Criterion (EEAC) is proposed in this paper for power system transient stability assessment (TSA). The time-varying degree of an equivalent image system can be deduced by comparing the analysis results of Static EEAC (SEEAC) and Dynamic EEAC (DEEAC), the former of which neglects all time-varying factors while the latter partially considers the time-varying factors. Case sorting rules according to their transient stability severity are set combining the time-varying degree and fault messages. Then a case sorting algorithm is designed with the “OR” logic among multiple rules, based on which each case can be identified into one of the following five categories, namely stable, suspected stable, marginal, suspected unstable and unstable. The performance of this algorithm is verified by studying 1652 contingency cases from 9 real Chinese provincial power systems under various operating conditions. It is shown that desirable classification accuracy can be achieved for all the contingency cases at the cost of very little extra computational burden and only 9.81% of the whole cases need to carry out further detailed calculation in rigorous on-line TSA conditions.

Global Systemic Risk and International Regulatory Coordination: Squaring Sovereignty and Financial Stability

In recent years much attention has been given to systemic risk and maintaining financial stability. Much of the focus, rightly, has been on market failures and the role of regulation in addressing them. This article looks at the role of domestic policies and government actions as sources of global instability. The global financial system is built upon global markets controlled by national financial and macroeconomic policies. In this context, regulatory asymmetries, diverging policy preferences, and government failures add a further dimension to global systemic risk not present at the national level.
Systemic risk is a result of the interplay between two independent variables: an underlying trigger event, in this analysis a domestic policy measure, and a transmission channel. The solution to systemic risk requires tackling one of these variables. In a domestic setting, the centralization of regulatory power into one single authority makes it easier to balance the delicate equilibrium between enhancing efficiency and reducing instability. However, in a global financial system in which national financial policies serve to maximize economic welfare, regulators will be confronted with difficult policy and legal tradeoffs.
We investigate the role that financial regulation plays in addressing domestic policy failures and in controlling the danger of global financial interdependence. To do so we analyse global financial interconnectedness, and explain its role in transmitting instability; we investigate the political economy dynamics at the origin of regulatory asymmetries and government failures; and we discuss the limits of regulation.

Parallel Time Series Analysis and Income Inequality: A New Approach to Comparative Case Studies

This case study deals with the role of time series analysis in sociology, and its relationship with the wider literature and methodology of comparative case study research. Time series analysis is now well-represented in top-ranked sociology journals, often in the form of ‘pooled time series’ research designs. These studies typically pool multiple countries together into a pooled time series cross-section panel, in order to provide a larger sample for more robust and comprehensive analysis. This approach is well suited to exploring trans-national phenomena, and for elaborating useful macro-level theories specific to social structures, national policies, and long-term historical processes. It is less suited however, to understanding how these global social processes work in different countries. As such, the complexities of individual countries - which often display very different or contradictory dynamics than those suggested in pooled studies – are subsumed. Meanwhile, a robust literature on comparative case-based methods exists in the social sciences, where researchers focus on differences between cases, and the complex ways in which they co-evolve or diverge over time. A good example of this is the inequality literature, where although panel studies suggest a general trend of rising inequality driven by the weakening power of labour, marketisation of welfare, and the rising power of capital, some countries have still managed to remain resilient. This case study takes a closer look at what can be learned by applying the insights of case-based comparative research to the method of time series analysis. Taking international income inequality as its point of departure, it argues that we have much to learn about the viability of different combinations of policy options by examining how they work in different countries over time. By taking representative cases from different welfare systems (liberal, social democratic, corporatist, or antipodean), we can better sharpen our theories of how policies can be more specifically engineered to offset rising inequality. This involves a fundamental realignment of the strategy of time series analysis, grounding it instead in a qualitative appreciation of the historical context of cases, as a basis for comparing effects between different countries.

The relationship between time attitudes profiles and self-efficacy, sensation seeking, and alcohol use: An exploratory study

A growing body of research has begun to report on time attitudes which specifically refers to an individual's emotional and evaluative feelings toward the past, the present, and the future. The present study used data from the first wave of a longitudinal cohort study in the United Kingdom. Sample 1 consisted of 1580 adolescents (40% female, 1.7% unreported) in Northern Ireland, while Sample 2 consisted of 813 adolescents (46.7% female, 1.4% unreported) in Scotland. Five similar time attitudes profiles emerged in both countries, with one additional "balanced" profile in Scotland. Results show that there were no substantive differences between profiles in terms of socio-demographic indicators. However, in respect of academic, social and emotional self-efficacy, best results were observed for those with Positive, Ambivalent, and Balanced profiles, with the reverse true for those with Negative, Past Negative, and Pessimistic profiles. Positives were also less likely to report using alcohol.

Is it time for standards and a common data exchange format for digital image analysis?

Digital image analysis is at a crossroads. While the technology has made great strides over the past few decades, there is an urgent need for image analysis to inform the next wave of large scale tissue biomarker discovery studies in cancer. Drawing parallels from the growth of next generation sequencing, this presentation will consider the case for a common language or standard format for storing and communicating digital image analysis data. In this context, image analysis data comprises more than simply an image with markups and attached key-value pair metrics. The desire to objectively benchmark competing platforms or a push for data to be deposited to public repositories much like genomics data may drive the need for a standard that also encompasses granular, cell-by-cell data.

Complexity of risk: Mixed methods approach to understanding youth risk and insecurity in post-conflict settings

In settings of intergroup conflict, identifying contextually-relevant risk factors for youth development in an important task. In Vukovar, Croatia, a city devastated during the war in former Yugoslavia, ethno-political tensions remain. The current study utilized a mixed method approach to identify two salient community-level risk factors (ethnic tension and general antisocial behavior) and related emotional insecurity responses (ethnic and non-ethnic insecurity) among youth in Vukovar. In Study 1, focus group discussions (N=66) with mother, fathers, and adolescents 11 to 15-years-old were analyzed using the Constant Comparative Method, revealing two types of risk and insecurity responses. In Study 2, youth (N=227, 58% male, M=15.88 SD=1.12 years old) responded to quantitative scales developed from the focus groups; discriminate validity was demonstrated and path analyses established predictive validity between each type of risk and insecurity. First, community ethnic tension (i.e., threats related to war/ethnic identity) significantly predicted ethnic insecurity for all youth (β=.41, p<.001). Second, experience with community antisocial behavior (i.e., general crime found in any context) predicted non-ethnic community insecurity for girls (β=.32, p<.05), but not for boys. These findings are the first to show multiple forms of emotional insecurity at the community level; implications for future research are discussed.

Moving window kernel PCA for adaptive monitoring of nonlinear processes

This paper discusses the monitoring of complex nonlinear and time-varying processes. Kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) has gained significant attention as a monitoring tool for nonlinear systems in recent years but relies on a fixed model that cannot be employed for time-varying systems. The contribution of this article is the development of a numerically efficient and memory saving moving window KPCA (MWKPCA) monitoring approach. The proposed technique incorporates an up- and downdating procedure to adapt (i) the data mean and covariance matrix in the feature space and (ii) approximates the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Gram matrix. The article shows that the proposed MWKPCA algorithm has a computation complexity of O(N2), whilst batch techniques, e.g. the Lanczos method, are of O(N3). Including the adaptation of the number of retained components and an l-step ahead application of the MWKPCA monitoring model, the paper finally demonstrates the utility of the proposed technique using a simulated nonlinear time-varying system and recorded data from an industrial distillation column.

Incorporating Higher Moments into Value at Risk Forecasting

Value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting generally relies on a parametric density function of portfolio returns that ignores higher moments or assumes them constant. In this paper, we propose a simple approach to forecasting of a portfolio VaR. We employ the Gram-Charlier expansion (GCE) augmenting the standard normal distribution with the first four moments, which are allowed to vary over time. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the GCE approach to other models of VaR forecasting and conclude that it provides accurate and robust estimates of the realized VaR. In spite of its simplicity, on our dataset GCE outperforms other estimates that are generated by both constant and time-varying higher-moments models.

Optimizing geometric accuracy of four dimensional CT scans acquired using the wall and couch mounted Varian Real-Time Position Management camera systems

Objective:

The aim of this study was to identify sources of anatomical misrepresentation due to the location of camera mounting, tumour motion velocity and image processing artefacts in order to optimise the 4DCT scan protocol and improve geometrical-temporal accuracy.

A phantom with an imaging insert was driven with a sinusoidal superior-inferior motion of varying amplitude and period for 4DCT scanning. The length of a high density cube within the insert was measured using treatment planning software to determine the accuracy of its spatial representation. Scan parameters were varied including the tube rotation period and the cine time between reconstructed images. A CT image quality phantom was used to measure various image quality signatures under the scan parameters tested.

No significant difference in spatial accuracy was found for 4DCT scans carried out using the wall mounted or couch mounted camera for sinusoidal target motion. Greater spatial accuracy was found for 4DCT scans carried out using a tube rotation speed of 0.5s rather than 1.0s. The reduction in image quality when using a faster rotation speed was not enough to require an increase in patient dose.

4DCT accuracy may be increased by optimising scan parameters, including choosing faster tube rotation speeds. Peak misidentification in the recorded breathing trace leads to spatial artefacts and this risk can be reduced by using a couch mounted infrared camera.

This study explicitly shows that 4DCT scan accuracy is improved by scanning with a faster CT tube rotation speed.