Temporal and Urban Peripheries in Systems Thinking

The “Temporal and Urban Peripheries” is the fall project of the final year of the Architecture program of Izmir University of Economics in Turkey. With a critical and contextual look at the built environment, the studio focuses on the significance of the incorporation of history, urban design, and parametrics in architectural design. This short article presents the thrust of the studio, basic concepts, the process, and outcomes.

A spatio-temporal 2D-models framework for human pose recovery in monocular sequences

This paper addresses the pose recovery problem of a particular articulated object: the human body. In this model-based approach, the 2D-shape is associated to the corresponding stick figure allowing the joint segmentation and pose recovery of the subject observed in the scene. The main disadvantage of 2D-models is their restriction to the viewpoint. To cope with this limitation, local spatio-temporal 2D-models corresponding to many views of the same sequences are trained, concatenated and sorted in a global framework. Temporal and spatial constraints are then considered to build the probabilistic transition matrix (PTM) that gives a frame to frame estimation of the most probable local models to use during the fitting procedure, thus limiting the feature space. This approach takes advantage of 3D information avoiding the use of a complex 3D human model. The experiments carried out on both indoor and outdoor sequences have demonstrated the ability of this approach to adequately segment pedestrians and estimate their poses independently of the direction of motion during the sequence. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Events: Temporal and Eternal (in preparation)

This monograph develops a theory of events which provides the foundation for a plausible and coherent account of God’s relation to time, and which has independent appeal (independent, that is, of theological considerations). The book is divided into three parts. The first part involves an investigation of those fundamental aspects of time which have important implications for the nature of events, such as whether time is substantival or relational, and whether time is continuous, dense, or discrete. This part also includes a chapter on how these issues relate to different interpretations of the special theory of relativity. The second part involves a defense of the fundamentality of events, and the development of a theory of events in time. The third part considers ways in which we might plausibly conceive of events as eternal entities. This involves an investigation of different ways of characterizing divine eternity, and then an analysis of the possible relations these ways bear to the antecedently developed theory of temporal events. The thought here is that there are certain characteristics of temporal events which can be assimilated to eternity, and that by evaluating the extent to which different theories of divine eternity allow for this assimilation, we will be able to determine which of those theories is most plausible, and therefore which conception of God’s relation to time is most plausible. The basis of this evaluation will be the theory’s ability to coherently account for God’s knowledge of, and interaction with, the created temporal world. One specific issue here is how to account for God’s knowledge of the future free actions of humans (an issue that I address in 'Eternity, Knowledge, and Freedom'), but there are many other difficulties associated with God’s relation to time, such as God’s creation of contingent time, God’s knowledge of what is happening now, God’s dialogue with humans, and God’s causally interacting with the temporal world in general. A successful theory of eternal events, and, in particular, divine events, will provide a framework for dealing with these difficulties.

I have not yet sough a publisher for this work, but intend to do so in 2013, with a target publication date of 2014.

Decomposing the mid-holocene Tsuga decline in eastern North America

The mid-Holocene decline of Tsuga canadensis (hereafter Tsuga) populations across eastern North America is widely perceived as a synchronous event, driven by pests/pathogens, rapid climate change, or both. Pattern identification and causal attribution are hampered by low stratigraphic density of pollen-sampling and radiometric dates at most sites, and by absence of highly resolved, paired pollen and paleoclimate records from single sediment cores, where chronological order of climatic and vegetational changes can be assessed. We present an intensely sampled (contiguous 1-cm intervals) record of pollen and water table depth (inferred from testate amoebae) from a single core spanning the Tsuga decline at Irwin Smith Bog in Lower Michigan, with high-precision chronology. We also present an intensively sampled pollen record from Tower Lake in Upper Michigan. Both sites show high-magnitude fluctuations in Tsuga pollen percentages during the pre-decline maximum. The terminal decline is dated at both sites ca. 5000 cal yr BP, some 400 years later than estimates from other sites and data compilations. The terminal Tsuga decline was evidently heterochronous across its range. A transient decline ca. 5350 cal yr BP at both sites may correspond to the terminal decline at other sites in eastern North America. At Irwin Smith Bog, the terminal Tsuga decline preceded an abrupt and persistent decline in water table depths by;200 years, suggesting the decline was not directly driven by abrupt climate change. The Tsuga decline may best be viewed as comprising at least three phases: a long-duration predecline maximum with high-magnitude and high-frequency fluctuations, followed by a terminal decline at individual sites, followed in turn by two millennia of persistently low Tsuga populations. These phases may not be causally linked, and may represent dynamics taking place at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Further progress toward understanding the phenomenon requires an expanded network of high-resolution pollen and paleoclimate chronologies.

Micro-Environmental monitoring of temperature and moisture changes in building stone

The monitoring of temperature and moisture changes in response to different micro-environment of building stones is essential to understand the material behaviour and the degradation mechanisms. From a practical point of view, having a continuous and detailed understanding of micro-environmental changes in building stones helps to assist in their maintenance and repair strategies. Temperature within the stone is usually monitored by means of thermistors, whereas wide ranges of techniques are available for monitoring the moisture. In the case of concrete an electrical resistance method has previously been used as an inexpensive tool for monitoring moisture changes. This paper describes the adaptation of this technique and describes its further development for monitoring moisture movement in building stones.
In this study a block of limestone was subjected to intermittent infrared radiation with programmed cycles of ambient temperature, rainfall and wind conditions in an automated climatic chamber. The temperature and moisture changes at different depths within the stone were monitored by means of bead thermistors and electrical resistance sensors. This experiment has helped to understand the thermal conductivity and moisture transport from surface into deeper parts of the stone at different simulated extreme climatic conditions. Results indicated that variations in external ambient conditions could substantially affect the moisture transport and temperature profile within the micro-environment of building stones and hence they could have a significant impact on stone decay.

Drusen prevalence and pigmentary changes in Caucasians aged 18-54 years

Aims and Purpose The aim of this study was to describe the prevalence and characteristics of drusen and pigmentary changes in a middle-aged population.

Methods Retinal images from 500 individuals aged 18–54 years were included. The source of participants was two UK optometry practices. Retinal images were graded using the Wisconsin Age-Related
Maculopathy Grading System. However, owing to the relatively young age of the population studied, a new category of drusen of smaller size (o31.5mm) was introduced.

Results Drusen were identi?ed within the central macular grid in 91.48% of all gradable eyes and in 444 subjects. Drusen sized o31.5mm were present in 89.7% of eyes, drusen sized 431.5mm and o63mm were present in 45.9% of all eyes and drusen 463mm and o125mm were present in only 1.7% of eyes. No eye had drusen larger or equal to 125mm. Very few eyes (1.2%) showed pigmentary changes within the grid. Drusen load increased with increasing age, P o0.001.

Conclusions The frequency of drusen in a younger Caucasian population aged 18–54 years is high, with 91.48% of all gradable eyes having drusen. The most frequent drusen subtype was hard distinct drusen o31.5mm. No druse greater or equal in size to 125mm was seen. Pigmentary changes are rare. Eye(2012) 26, 1357–1362; doi:10.1038/eye.2012.165; published online 17 August 2012

Gamma Irradiation and Targeted Radionuclides Enhance the Expression of the Noradrenaline Transporter Transgene Controlled by the Radio-Inducible p21(WAF1/CIP1) Promoter

The use of radiation-inducible promoters to drive transgene expression offers the possibility of temporal and spatial regulation of gene activation. This study assessed the potential of one such promoter element, p21(WAF1/CIP1) (WAF1), to drive expression of the noradrenaline transporter (NAT) gene, which conveys sensitivity to radioiodinated meta-iodobenzylguanidine (MIBG). An expression vector containing NAT under the control of the radiation-inducible WAF1 promoter (pWAF/NAT) was produced. The non-NAT expressing cell lines UVW (glioma) and HCT116 (colorectal cancer) were transfected with this construct to assess radiation-controlled WAF1 activation of the NAT gene. Transfection of UVW and HCT cells with pWAF/NAT conferred upon them the ability to accumulate [(131)I]MIBG, which led to increased sensitivity to the radiopharmaceutical. Pretreatment of transfected cells with ? radiation or the radiopharmaceuticals [(123)I]MIBG or [(131)I]MIBG induced dose- and time-dependent increases in subsequent [(131)I]MIBG uptake and led to enhanced efficacy of [(131)I]MIBG-mediated cell kill. Gene therapy using WAF1-driven expression of NAT has the potential to expand the use of this therapeutic modality to tumors that lack a radio-targetable feature.

Lake Kumphawapi – an archive of Holocene palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic changes in northeast Thailand

The long-term climatic and environmental history of Southeast Asia, and of Thailand in particular, is still fragmentary. Here we present a new 14C-dated, multi-proxy sediment record (TOC, C/N, CNS isotopes, Si, Zr, K, Ti, Rb, Ca elemental data, biogenic silica) for Lake Kumphawapi, the second largest natural lake in northeast Thailand. The data set provides a reconstruction of changes in lake status, groundwater fluctuations, and catchment run-off during the Holocene. A comparison of multiple sediment sequences and their proxies suggests that the summer monsoon was stronger between c. 9800 and 7000 cal yr BP. Lake status and water level changes around 7000 cal yr BP signify a shift to lower effective moisture. By c. 6500 cal yr BP parts of the lake had been transformed into a peatland, while areas of shallow water still occupied the deeper part of the basin until c. 5400–5200 cal yr BP. The driest interval in Kumphawapi's history occurred between c. 5200 and 3200 cal yr BP, when peat extended over large parts of the basin. After 3200 cal yr BP, the deepest part of the lake again turned into a wetland, which existed until c. 1600 cal yr BP. The observed lake-level rise after 1600 cal yr BP could have been caused by higher moisture availability, although increased human influence in the catchment cannot be ruled out. The present study highlights the use of multiple sediment sequences and proxies to study large lakes, such as Lake Kumphawapi in order to correctly assess the time transgressive response to past changes in hydroclimate conditions. Our new data set from northeast Thailand adds important palaeoclimatic information for a region in Southeast Asia and allows discussing Holocene monsoon variability and ITCZ movement in greater detail.

Temporal and geographical distribution of measles virus genotypes

The nucleotide sequence encoding the C terminus of the nucleocapsid protein of measles virus (MV) is the most variable in the genome. The sequence of this region is reported for 21 new MV strains and for virus RNA obtained from cases of subacute panencephalitis (SSPE) tissue. The nucleotide sequence of a total of 65 MV strains has been analysed using the CLUSTAL program to determine the relationships between the strains. An unrooted tree shows that eight different genotypes can be discerned amongst the sequences analysed so far. The data show that the C-terminal coding sequence of the nucleocapsid gene, although highly variable between strains, is stable in a given strain and does not appear to diverge in tissue culture. It therefore provides a good 'signature' sequence for specific genotypes. The sequence of this region can be used to discriminate new imported viruses from old 'endemic' strains of MV in a geographical area. The different genotypes are not geographically restricted although some appear to be the mainly 'endemic' types in large areas of the world. In global terms there appears to be at least four co-circulating genotypes of MV. The low level of divergence in the Edmonston lineage group isolated before 1970 indicates that some isolates are probably laboratory contaminants. This applies to some SSPE isolates such as the Halle, Mantooth and Horta-Barbosa strains as well as some wild-type isolates from that period.

Role of Predalors, Habitat Attributes, and Spatial Autocorrelation on the Distribution of Eggs in the Northern Spectacled Salamander (Salamandrina perspicillata)

We predicted that the probability of egg occurrence of salamander Salamandrina perspicillata depended on stream features and predation by native crayfish Austropotamobius fulcisianus and the introduced trout Salmo trutta. We assessed the presence of S. perspicillata at 54 sites within a natural reserve of southern Tuscany, Italy. Generalized linear models with binomial errors were constructed using egg presence/absence and altitude, stream mean size and slope, electrical conductivity, water pH and temperature, and a predation factor, defined according to the presence/absence of crayfish and trout. Some competing models also included an autocovariate term, which estimated how much the response variable at any one sampling point reflected response values at surrounding points. The resulting models were compared using Akaike's information criterion. Model selection led to a subset of 14 models with Delta AIC(c) <7 (i.e., models ranging from substantial support to considerably less support), and all but one of these included an effect of predation. Models with the autocovariate term had considerably more support than those without the term. According to multimodel inference, the presence of trout and crayfish reduced the probability of egg occurrence from a mean level of 0.90 (SE limits: 0.98-0.55) to 0.12 (SE limits: 0.34-0.04). The presence of crayfish alone had no detectable effects (SE limits: 0.86-0.39). The results suggest that introduced trout have a detrimental effect on the reproductive output of S. perspicillata and confirm the fundamental importance of distinguishing the roles of endogenous and exogenous forces that act on population distribution.

Body-centric ultra-wideband multi-channel characterisation and spatial diversity in the indoor environment

This study presents the findings of an empirical channel characterisation for an ultra-wideband off-body optic fibre-fed multiple-antenna array within an office and corridor environment. The results show that for received power experiments, the office and corridor were best modelled by lognormal and Rician distributions, respectively [for both line of sight (LOS) and non-LOS (NLOS) scenarios]. In the office, LOS measurements for t and tRMS were both described by the Normal distribution for all channels, whereas NLOS measurements for t and t were Nakagami and Weibull distributed, respectively. For the corridor measurements, LOS for t and t were either Nakagami or normally distributed for all channels, with NLOS measurements for t and t being Nakagami and normally distributed, respectively. This work also shows that achievable diversity gain was influenced by both mutual coupling and cross-correlation co-efficients. Although the best diversity gains were 1.8 dB for three-channel selective diversity combining, the authors present recommendations for improving these results. © The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2013.

Patterns of synchrony in natterjack toad breeding activity and reproductive success at local and regional scales

Empirical studies of the spatiotemporal dynamics of populations are required to better understand natural fluctuations in abundance and reproductive success, and to better target conservation and monitoring programmes. In particular, spatial synchrony in amphibian populations remains little studied. We used data from a comprehensive three year study of natterjack toad Bufo calamita populations breeding at 36 ponds to assess whether there was spatial synchrony in the toad breeding activity (start and length of breeding season, total number of egg strings) and reproductive success (premetamorphic survival and production of metamorphs). We defined a novel approach to assess the importance of short-term synchrony at both local and regional scales. The approach employs similarity indices and quantifies the interaction between the temporal and spatial components of populations using mixed effects models. There was no synchrony in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success at the local scale, suggesting that populations function as individual clusters independent of each other. Regional synchrony was apparent in the commencement and duration of the breeding season and in the number of egg strings laid (indicative of female population size). Regional synchrony in both rainfall and temperature are likely to explain the patterns observed (e.g. Moran effect). There was no evidence supporting regional synchrony in reproductive success, most likely due to spatial variability in the environmental conditions at the breeding ponds, and to differences in local population fitness (e.g. fecundity). The small scale asynchronous dynamics and regional synchronous dynamics in the number of breeding females indicate that it is best to monitor several populations within a subset of regions. Importantly, variations in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success are not synchronous, and it is thus important to consider them both when assessing the conservation status of pond-breeding amphibians. © 2012 The Authors. Ecography © 2012 Nordic Society Oikos.

Modelling the response of fresh groundwater to climate and vegetation changes in coral islands

In coral islands, groundwater is a crucial freshwater resource for terrestrial life, including human water supply. Response of the freshwater lens to expected climate changes and subsequent vegetation alterations is quantified for Grande Glorieuse, a low-lying coral island in the Western Indian Ocean. Distributed models of recharge, evapotranspiration and saltwater phytotoxicity are integrated into a variable-density groundwater model to simulate the evolution of groundwater salinity. Model results are assessed against field observations including groundwater and geophysical measurements. Simulations show the major control currently exerted by the vegetation with regards to the lens morphology and the high sensitivity of the lens to climate alterations, impacting both quantity and salinity. Long-term changes in mean sea level and climatic conditions (rainfall and evapotranspiration) are predicted to be responsible for an average increase in salinity approaching 140 % (+8 kg m-3) when combined. In low-lying areas with high vegetation density, these changes top +300 % (+10 kg m-3). However, due to salinity increase and its phytotoxicity, it is shown that a corollary drop in vegetation activity can buffer the alteration of fresh groundwater. This illustrates the importance of accounting for vegetation dynamics to study groundwater in coral islands.