Estimating Stellar Radial Velocity Variability from Kepler and GALEX: Implications for the radial velocity confirmation of exoplanets.

We cross match the GALEX and Kepler surveys to create a unique dataset with both ultraviolet (UV) measurements and highly precise photometric variability measurements in the visible light spectrum. As stellar activity is driven by magnetic field modulations, we have used UV emission from the magnetically heated gas in the stellar atmosphere to serve as our proxy for the more well-known stellar activity indicator, R' HK . The R' HK approximations were in turn used to estimate the level of astrophysical noise expected in radial velocity (RV) measurements and these were then searched for correlations with photometric variability. We find significant scatter in our attempts to estimate RV noise for magnetically active stars, which we attribute to variations in the phase and strength of the stellar magnetic cycle that drives the activity of these targets. However, for stars we deem to be magnetically quiet, we do find a clear correlation between photometric variability and estimated levels of RV noise (with variability up to ~10 m s–1). We conclude that for these quiet stars, we can use photometric measurements as a proxy to estimate the RV noise expected. As a result, the procedure outlined in this paper may help select targets best-suited for RV follow-up necessary for planet confirmation.

A simple disc wind model for broad absorption line quasars

Approximately 20 per cent of quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) exhibit broad, blue-shifted absorption lines in their ultraviolet spectra. Such features provide clear evidence for significant outflows from these systems, most likely in the form of accretion disc winds. These winds may represent the ‘quasar’ mode of feedback that is often invoked in galaxy formation/evolution models, and they are also key to unification scenarios for active galactic nuclei (AGN) and QSOs. To test these ideas, we construct a simple benchmark model of an equatorial, biconical accretion disc wind in a QSO and use a Monte Carlo ionization/radiative transfer code to calculate the ultraviolet spectra as a function of viewing angle. We find that for plausible outflow parameters, sightlines looking directly into the wind cone do produce broad, blue-shifted absorption features in the transitions typically seen in broad absorption line (BAL) QSOs. However, our benchmark model is intrinsically X-ray weak in order to prevent overionization of the outflow, and the wind does not yet produce collisionally excited line emission at the level observed in non-BAL QSOs. As a first step towards addressing these shortcomings, we discuss the sensitivity of our results to changes in the assumed X-ray luminosity and mass-loss rate, Ṁwind. In the context of our adopted geometry, Ṁwind ∼ Ṁacc is required in order to produce significant BAL features. The kinetic luminosity and momentum carried by such outflows would be sufficient to provide significant feedback.

Understanding Astrophysical Noise from Stellar Surface Magneto-Convection

To obtain cm/s precision, stellar surface magneto-convection must be disentangled from observed radial velocities (RVs). In order to understand and remove the convective signature, we create Sun-as-a-star model observations based on a 3D magnetohydrodynamic solar simulation. From these Sun-as-a-star model observations, we find several line characteristics are correlated with the induced RV shifts. The aim of this campaign is to feed directly into future high precision RV studies, such as the search for habitable, rocky worlds, with forthcoming spectrographs such as ESPRESSO.

Rough Waters, Dark Shadows and Cross-Cutting Winds:the impact of European Union enlargement on Turkey’s EU accession negotiations

For a multiplicity of socio-economic, geo-political, strategic and identity-based reasons, Turkey’s progress towards EU membership is often treated as a sui generis case. Yet although Turkey’s accession negotiations with the European Union (EU) are essentially a bilateral – and often stormy – affair, they take place within a wider and dynamic process of enlargement in which not only can the gloomy – sometimes dark – shadows of past and prospective enlargements be clearly detected, but so too can the often chill winds from ongoing, parallel negotiations with other candidates. How the EU negotiates accession and what it expects from candidates has continued to evolve since the EU began drawing up its framework for negotiations with Turkey ten years ago. This paper charts this evolution by first identifying changes in the light of Croatia’s negotiating experience, the ‘lessons learnt’ by the EU in meeting the challenges of Bulgarian and Romanian accession, the EU’s handling of Iceland’s membership bid and accession negotiations, and the revised approach to negotiating accession evident in the more recent frameworks for accession negotiations with Montenegro and Serbia. The paper then explores the extent to which these changes have impacted on the approach the EU has adopted in framing and progressing accession negotiations with Turkey. In doing so, it questions both the consistency with which the EU’s negotiates accession and the extent to which Turkey’s progress towards EU membership is conditioned by the broader dynamics of EU enlargement as opposed to simply the dynamics within EU-Turkey relations and domestic Turkish reform efforts.

A Bayesian method for detecting stellar flares

We present a Bayesian-odds-ratio-based algorithm for detecting stellar flares in light-curve data. We assume flares are described by a model in which there is a rapid rise with a half-Gaussian profile, followed by an exponential decay. Our signal model also contains a polynomial background model required to fit underlying light-curve variations in the data, which could otherwise partially mimic a flare. We characterize the false alarm probability and efficiency of this method under the assumption that any unmodelled noise in the data is Gaussian, and compare it with a simpler thresholding method based on that used in Walkowicz et al. We find our method has a significant increase in detection efficiency for low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) flares. For a conservative false alarm probability our method can detect 95 per cent of flares with S/N less than 20, as compared to S/N of 25 for the simpler method. We also test how well the assumption of Gaussian noise holds by applying the method to a selection of 'quiet' Kepler stars. As an example we have applied our method to a selection of stars in Kepler Quarter 1 data. The method finds 687 flaring stars with a total of 1873 flares after vetos have been applied. For these flares we have made preliminary characterizations of their durations and and S/N.

The Decaying Long-period Oscillation of a Stellar Megaflare

We analyze and interpret the oscillatory signal in the decay phase of the U-band light curve of a stellar megaflare observed on 2009 January 16 on the dM4.5e star YZ CMi. The oscillation is well approximated by an exponentially decaying harmonic function. The period of the oscillation is found to be 32 minutes, the decay time about 46 minutes, and the relative amplitude 15%. As this observational signature is typical of the longitudinal oscillations observed in solar flares at extreme ultraviolet and radio wavelengths, associated with standing slow magnetoacoustic waves, we suggest that this megaflare may be of a similar nature. In this scenario, macroscopic variations of the plasma parameters in the oscillations modulate the ejection of non-thermal electrons. The phase speed of the longitudinal (slow magnetoacoustic) waves in the flaring loop or arcade, the tube speed, of about 230 km s-1 would require a loop length of about 200 Mm. Other mechanisms, such as standing kink oscillations, are also considered.

Transit timing variations in WASP-10b induced by stellar activity

The hot-JupiterWASP-10bwas reported by Maciejewski et al. to showtransit timing variations (TTVs) with an amplitude of ~3.5 min. These authors proposed that the observed TTVs were caused by a 0.1M_Jup perturbing companion with an orbital period of ~5.23 d, and hence, close to the outer 5:3 mean-motion resonance with WASP-10b. To test this scenario, we present eight new transit light curves of WASP-10b obtained with the Faulkes Telescope North and the Liverpool Telescope. The new light curves, together with 22 previously published ones, were modelled with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo transit fitting code. Transit depth differences reported forWASP-10b are thought to be due to starspot-induced brightness modulation of the host star. Assuming the star is brighter at the activity minimum, we favour a small planetary radius. We find Rp = 1.039^+0.043 _-0.049R_Jup in agreement with Johnson et al. and Maciejewski et al. Recent studies find no evidence for a significant eccentricity in this system. We present consistent system parameters for a circular orbit and refine the orbital ephemeris ofWASP-10b. Our homogeneously derived transit times do not support the previous claimed TTV signal, which was strongly dependent on two previously published transits that have been incorrectly normalized. Nevertheless, a linear ephemeris is not a statistically good fit to the transit times of WASP-10b. We show that the observed transit time variations are due to spot occultation features or systematics. We discuss and exemplify the effects of occultation spot features in the measured transit times and show that despite spot occultation during egress and ingress being difficult to distinguish in the transit light curves, they have a significant effect in the measured transit times. We conclude that if we account for spot features, the transit times of WASP-10b are consistent with a linear ephemeris with the exception of one transit (epoch 143) which is a partial transit. Therefore, there is currently no evidence for the existence of a companion to WASP-10b. Our results support the lack of TTVs of hot-Jupiters reported for the Kepler sample. 

The nebular spectra of SN 2012aw and constraints on stellar nucleosynthesis from oxygen emission lines

We present nebular-phase optical and near-infrared spectroscopy of the Type IIP supernova SN 2012aw combined with non-local thermodynamic equilibrium radiative transfer calculations applied to ejecta from stellar evolution/explosion models. Our spectral synthesis models generally show good agreement with the ejecta from a M_ZAMS = 15 M_⊙progenitor star. The emission lines of oxygen, sodium, and magnesium are all consistent with the nucleosynthesis in a progenitor in the 14-18 M_⊙ range.We also demonstrate how the evolution of the oxygen cooling lines of [O I] λ5577, [O I] λ6300, and [O I] λ6364 can be used to constrain the mass of oxygen in the non-molecularly cooled ashes to < 1 M_⊙, independent of the mixing in the ejecta. This constraint implies that any progenitor model of initial mass greater than 20 M_⊙ would be difficult to reconcile with the observed line strengths. A stellar progenitor of around M_ZAMS = 15 M_⊙ can consistently explain the directly measured luminosity of the progenitor star, the observed nebular spectra, and the inferred pre-supernova mass-loss rate.We conclude that there is still no convincing example of a Type IIP supernova showing the nucleosynthesis products expected from an M_ZAMS > 20 M_⊙ progenitor. © 2014 The Author. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society.

An ultraviolet-optical flare from the tidal disruption of a helium-rich stellar core

The flare of radiation from the tidal disruption and accretion of a star can be used as a marker for supermassive black holes that otherwise lie dormant and undetected in the centres of distant galaxies. Previous candidate flares have had declining light curves in good agreement with expectations, but with poor constraints on the time of disruption and the type of star disrupted, because the rising emission was not observed. Recently, two `relativistic' candidate tidal disruption events were discovered, each of whose extreme X-ray luminosity and synchrotron radio emission were interpreted as the onset of emission from a relativistic jet. Here we report a luminous ultraviolet-optical flare from the nuclear region of an inactive galaxy at a redshift of 0.1696. The observed continuum is cooler than expected for a simple accreting debris disk, but the well-sampled rise and decay of the light curve follow the predicted mass accretion rate and can be modelled to determine the time of disruption to an accuracy of two days. The black hole has a mass of about two million solar masses, modulo a factor dependent on the mass and radius of the star disrupted. On the basis of the spectroscopic signature of ionized helium from the unbound debris, we determine that the disrupted star was a helium-rich stellar core.

Self-consistent modelling of line-driven hot-star winds with Monte Carlo radiation hydrodynamics

Radiative pressure exerted by line interactions is a prominent driver of outflows in astrophysical systems, being at work in the outflows emerging from hot stars or from the accretion discs of cataclysmic variables, massive young stars and active galactic nuclei. In this work, a new radiation hydrodynamical approach to model line-driven hot-star winds is presented. By coupling a Monte Carlo radiative transfer scheme with a finite volume fluid dynamical method, line-driven mass outflows may be modelled self-consistently, benefiting from the advantages of Monte Carlo techniques in treating multiline effects, such as multiple scatterings, and in dealing with arbitrary multidimensional configurations. In this work, we introduce our approach in detail by highlighting the key numerical techniques and verifying their operation in a number of simplified applications, specifically in a series of self-consistent, one-dimensional, Sobolev-type, hot-star wind calculations. The utility and accuracy of our approach are demonstrated by comparing the obtained results with the predictions of various formulations of the so-called CAK theory and by confronting the calculations with modern sophisticated techniques of predicting the wind structure. Using these calculations, we also point out some useful diagnostic capabilities our approach provides. Finally, we discuss some of the current limitations of our method, some possible extensions and potential future applications.

Young Stellar Object VARiability (YSOVAR): Long Timescale Variations in the Mid-infrared

The YSOVAR (Young Stellar Object VARiability) Spitzer Space Telescope observing program obtained the first extensive mid-infrared (3.6 and 4.5 μm) time series photometry of the Orion Nebula Cluster plus smaller footprints in 11 other star-forming cores (AFGL 490, NGC 1333, Mon R2, GGD 12-15, NGC 2264, L1688, Serpens Main, Serpens South, IRAS 20050+2720, IC 1396A, and Ceph C). There are ~29,000 unique objects with light curves in either or both IRAC channels in the YSOVAR data set. We present the data collection and reduction for the Spitzer and ancillary data, and define the "standard sample" on which we calculate statistics, consisting of fast cadence data, with epochs roughly twice per day for ~40 days. We also define a "standard sample of members" consisting of all the IR-selected members and X-ray-selected members. We characterize the standard sample in terms of other properties, such as spectral energy distribution shape. We use three mechanisms to identify variables in the fast cadence data—the Stetson index, a χ2 fit to a flat light curve, and significant periodicity. We also identified variables on the longest timescales possible of six to seven years by comparing measurements taken early in the Spitzer mission with the mean from our YSOVAR campaign. The fraction of members in each cluster that are variable on these longest timescales is a function of the ratio of Class I/total members in each cluster, such that clusters with a higher fraction of Class I objects also have a higher fraction of long-term variables. For objects with a YSOVAR-determined period and a [3.6]-[8] color, we find that a star with a longer period is more likely than those with shorter periods to have an IR excess. We do not find any evidence for variability that causes [3.6]-[4.5] excesses to appear or vanish within our data set; out of members and field objects combined, at most 0.02% may have transient IR excesses.

YSOVAR: Mid-infrared Variability of Young Stellar Objects and Their Disks in the Cluster IRAS 20050+2720

We present a time-variability study of young stellar objects (YSOs) in the cluster IRAS 20050+2720, performed at 3.6 and 4.5 μm with the Spitzer Space Telescope; this study is part of the Young Stellar Object VARiability (YSOVAR) project. We have collected light curves for 181 cluster members over 60 days. We find a high variability fraction among embedded cluster members of ca. 70%, whereas young stars without a detectable disk display variability less often (in ca. 50% of the cases) and with lower amplitudes. We detect periodic variability for 33 sources with periods primarily in the range of 2–6 days. Practically all embedded periodic sources display additional variability on top of their periodicity. Furthermore, we analyze the slopes of the tracks that our sources span in the color–magnitude diagram (CMD). We find that sources with long variability time scales tend to display CMD slopes that are at least partially influenced by accretion processes, while sources with short variability timescales tend to display extinction-dominated slopes. We find a tentative trend of X-ray detected cluster members to vary on longer timescales than the X-ray undetected members.

A 250-year periodicity in Southern Hemisphere westerly winds over the last 2600 years

Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow has a significant influence on the ocean–atmosphere system of the mid- to high latitudes with potentially global climate implications. Unfortunately, historic observations only extend back to the late 19th century, limiting our understanding of multi-decadal to centennial change. Here we present a highly resolved (30-year) record of past westerly wind strength from a Falkland Islands peat sequence spanning the last 2600 years. Situated within the core latitude of Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow (the so-called furious fifties), we identify highly variable changes in exotic pollen and charcoal derived from South America which can be used to inform on past westerly air strength. We find a period of high charcoal content between 2000 and 1000 cal. years BP, associated with increased burning in Patagonia, most probably as a result of higher temperatures and stronger westerly airflow. Spectral analysis of the charcoal record identifies a pervasive ca. 250-year periodicity that is coherent with radiocarbon production rates, suggesting that solar variability has a modulating influence on Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow. Our results have important implications for understanding global climate change through the late Holocene.

The Rossiter-McLaughlin effect reloaded: Probing the 3D spin-orbit geometry, differential stellar rotation, and the spatially-resolved stellar spectrum of star-planet systems

When a planet transits its host star, it blocks regions of the stellar surface from view; this causes a distortion of the spectral lines and a change in the line-of-sight (LOS) velocities, known as the Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) effect. Since the LOS velocities depend, in part, on the stellar rotation, the RM waveform is sensitive to the star-planet alignment (which provides information on the system’s dynamical history). We present a new RM modelling technique that directly measures the spatially-resolved stellar spectrum behind the planet. This is done by scaling the continuum flux of the (HARPS) spectra by the transit light curve, and then subtracting the infrom the out-of-transit spectra to isolate the starlight behind the planet. This technique does not assume any shape for the intrinsic local profiles. In it, we also allow for differential stellar rotation and centre-to-limb variations in the convective blueshift. We apply this technique to HD 189733 and compare to 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. We reject rigid body rotation with high confidence (>99% probability), which allows us to determine the occulted stellar latitudes and measure the stellar inclination. In turn, we determine both the sky-projected (λ ≈ −0.4 ± 0.2◦) and true 3D obliquity (ψ ≈ 7+12 −4 ◦ ). We also find good agreement with the MHD simulations, with no significant centre-to-limb variations detectable in the local profiles. Hence, this technique provides a new powerful tool that can probe stellar photospheres, differential rotation, determine 3D obliquities, and remove sky-projection biases in planet migration theories. This technique can be implemented with existing instrumentation, but will become even more powerful with the next generation of high-precision radial velocity spectrographs.