Exploiting Human Resource Requirements to Infer Human Movement Patterns for Use in Modelling Disease Transmission Systems: An Example from Eastern Province, Zambia

In this research, an agent-based model (ABM) was developed to generate human movement routes between homes and water resources in a rural setting, given commonly available geospatial datasets on population distribution, land cover and landscape resources. ABMs are an object-oriented computational approach to modelling a system, focusing on the interactions of autonomous agents, and aiming to assess the impact of these agents and their interactions on the system as a whole. An A* pathfinding algorithm was implemented to produce walking routes, given data on the terrain in the area. A* is an extension of Dijkstra's algorithm with an enhanced time performance through the use of heuristics. In this example, it was possible to impute daily activity movement patterns to the water resource for all villages in a 75 km long study transect across the Luangwa Valley, Zambia, and the simulated human movements were statistically similar to empirical observations on travel times to the water resource (Chi-squared, 95% confidence interval). This indicates that it is possible to produce realistic data regarding human movements without costly measurement as is commonly achieved, for example, through GPS, or retrospective or real-time diaries. The approach is transferable between different geographical locations, and the product can be useful in providing an insight into human movement patterns, and therefore has use in many human exposure-related applications, specifically epidemiological research in rural areas, where spatial heterogeneity in the disease landscape, and space-time proximity of individuals, can play a crucial role in disease spread.

An aggregated fridge-freezer peak shaving and valley filling control strategy for enhanced grid operations

The need for fast response demand side participation (DSP) has never been greater due to increased wind power penetration. White domestic goods suppliers are currently developing a `smart' chip for a range of domestic appliances (e.g. refrigeration units, tumble dryers and storage heaters) to support the home as a DSP unit in future power systems. This paper presents an aggregated population-based model of a single compressor fridge-freezer. Two scenarios (i.e. energy efficiency class and size) for valley filling and peak shaving are examined to quantify and value DSP savings in 2020. The analysis shows potential peak reductions of 40 MW to 55 MW are achievable in the Single wholesale Electricity Market of Ireland (i.e. the test system), and valley demand increases of up to 30 MW. The study also shows the importance of the control strategy start time and the staggering of the devices to obtain the desired filling or shaving effect.

3D FEM simulation of helical milling hole process for titanium alloy Ti-6Al-4V

As an emerging hole-machining methodology, helical milling process has become increasingly popular in aeromaterials manufacturing research, especially in areas of aircraft structural parts, dies, and molds manufacturing. Helical milling process is highly demanding due to its complex tool geometry and the progressive material failure on the workpiece. This paper outlines the development of a 3D finite element model for helical milling hole of titanium alloy Ti-6Al-4V using commercial FE code ABAQUS/Explicit. The proposed model simulates the helical milling hole process by taking into account the damage initiation and evolution in the workpiece material. A contact model at the interface between end-mill bit and workpiece has been established and the process parameters specified. Furthermore, a simulation procedure is proposed to simulate different cutting processes with the same failure parameters. With this finite element model, a series of FEAs for machined titanium alloy have been carried out and results compared with laboratory experimental data. The effects of machining parameters on helical milling have been elucidated, and the capability and advantage of FE simulation on helical milling process have been well presented.

Context-dependent Combination of Sensor Information in Dempster-Shafer Theory for BDI

There has been much interest in the belief–desire–intention (BDI) agent-based model for developing scalable intelligent systems, e.g. using the AgentSpeak framework. However, reasoning from sensor information in these large-scale systems remains a significant challenge. For example, agents may be faced with information from heterogeneous sources which is uncertain and incomplete, while the sources themselves may be unreliable or conflicting. In order to derive meaningful conclusions, it is important that such information be correctly modelled and combined. In this paper, we choose to model uncertain sensor information in Dempster–Shafer (DS) theory. Unfortunately, as in other uncertainty theories, simple combination strategies in DS theory are often too restrictive (losing valuable information) or too permissive (resulting in ignorance). For this reason, we investigate how a context-dependent strategy originally defined for possibility theory can be adapted to DS theory. In particular, we use the notion of largely partially maximal consistent subsets (LPMCSes) to characterise the context for when to use Dempster’s original rule of combination and for when to resort to an alternative. To guide this process, we identify existing measures of similarity and conflict for finding LPMCSes along with quality of information heuristics to ensure that LPMCSes are formed around high-quality information. We then propose an intelligent sensor model for integrating this information into the AgentSpeak framework which is responsible for applying evidence propagation to construct compatible information, for performing context-dependent combination and for deriving beliefs for revising an agent’s belief base. Finally, we present a power grid scenario inspired by a real-world case study to demonstrate our work.

Adapting to time: duration channels do not mediate human time perception

Accurately encoding the duration and temporal order of events is essential for survival and important to everyday activities, from holding conversations to driving in fast flowing traffic. Although there is a growing body of evidence that the timing of brief events (< 1s) is encoded by modality-specific mechanisms, it is not clear how such mechanisms register event duration. One approach gaining traction is a channel-based model; this envisages narrowly-tuned, overlapping timing mechanisms that respond preferentially to different durations. The channel-based model predicts that adapting to a given event duration will result in overestimating and underestimating the duration of longer and shorter events, respectively. We tested the model by having observers judge the duration of a brief (600ms) visual test stimulus following adaptation to longer (860ms) and shorter (340ms) stimulus durations. The channel-based model predicts perceived duration compression of the test stimulus in the former condition and perceived duration expansion in the latter condition. Duration compression occurred in both conditions, suggesting that the channel-based model does not adequately account for perceived duration of visual events.

TELL ME Design: Protective Behaviour During an Epidemic

The TELL ME agent based model simulates the connections between health agency communication, personal decisions to adopt protective behaviour during an influenza epidemic, and the effect of those decisions on epidemic progress. The behaviour decisions are modelled with a combination of personal attitude, behaviour adoption by neighbours, and the local recent incidence of influenza. This paper sets out and justifies the model design, including how these decision factors have been operationalised. By exploring the effects of different communication strategies, the model is intended to assist health authorities with their influenza epidemic communication plans. It can both assist users to understand the complex interactions between communication, personal behaviour and epidemic progress, and guide future data collection to improve communication planning.