Risk adjustment for hospital use using social security data: cross sectional small area analysis

Objectives: To identify demographic and socioeconomic determinants of need for acute hospital treatment at small area level. To establish whether there is a relation between poverty and use of inpatient services. To devise a risk adjustment formula for distributing public funds for hospital services using, as far as possible, variables that can be updated between censuses. Design: Cross sectional analysis. Spatial interactive modelling was used to quantify the proximity of the population to health service facilities. Two stage weighted least squares regression was used to model use against supply of hospital and community services and a wide range of potential needs drivers including health, socioeconomic census variables, uptake of income support and family credit, and religious denomination. Setting: Northern Ireland. Main outcome measure: Intensity of use of inpatient services. Results: After endogeneity of supply and use was taken into account, a statistical model was produced that predicted use based on five variables: income support, family credit, elderly people living alone, all ages standardised mortality ratio, and low birth weight. The main effect of the formula produced is to move resources from urban to rural areas. Conclusions: This work has produced a population risk adjustment formula for acute hospital treatment in which four of the five variables can be updated annually rather than relying on census derived data. Inclusion of the social security data makes a substantial difference to the model and to the results produced by the formula.

Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing

Long-range dependence in volatility is one of the most prominent examples in financial market research involving universal power laws. Its characterization has recently spurred attempts to provide some explanations of the underlying mechanism. This paper contributes to this recent line of research by analyzing a simple market fraction asset pricing model with two types of traders---fundamentalists who trade on the price deviation from estimated fundamental value and trend followers whose conditional mean and variance of the trend are updated through a geometric learning process. Our analysis shows that agent heterogeneity, risk-adjusted trend chasing through the geometric learning process, and the interplay of noisy fundamental and demand processes and the underlying deterministic dynamics can be the source of power-law distributed fluctuations. In particular, the noisy demand plays an important role in the generation of insignificant autocorrelations (ACs) on returns, while the significant decaying AC patterns of the absolute returns and squared returns are more influenced by the noisy fundamental process. A statistical analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations is conducted to characterize the decay rate. Realistic estimates of the power-law decay indices and the (FI)GARCH parameters are presented.

Quaternary pollen analysis: recent progress in palaeoecology and palaeoclimatology

During the last decade Quaternary pollen analysis has developed towards improved pollen-taxonomical precision, automated pollen identification and more rigorous definition of pollen assemblage zones. There have been significant efforts to model the spatial representation of pollen records in lake sediments which is important for more precise interpretation of the pollen records in terms of past vegetation patterns. We review the difficulties in matching modelled post-glacial plant migration patterns with pollen-based palaeorecords and discuss the potential of DNA analysis of pollen to investigate the ancestry and past migration pathways of the plants. In population ecology there has been an acceleration of the widely advocated conceptual advance of pollen-analytical research from vaguely defined ‘environmental reconstructions’ towards investigating more precisely defined ecological problems aligned with the current ecological theories. Examples of such research have included an increasing number of investigations about the ecological impacts of past disturbances, often integrating pollen records with other palaeoecological data. Such an approach has also been applied to incorporate a time perspective to the questions of ecosystem restoration, nature conservation and forest management. New lines of research are the use of pollen analysis to study long-term patterns of vegetation diversity, such as the role of glacial-age vegetation fragmentation as a cause of Amazonian rain forest diversity, and to investigate links between pollen richness and past plant diversity. Palaeoclimatological use of pollen records has become more quantitative and has included more precise and rigorous testing of pollen-climate calibration models with modern climate data. These tests show the approximate nature of the models and warn against a too straightforward climatic interpretation of the small-scale variation in reconstructions. Pollenbased climate reconstructions over the Late Glacial–early Holocene boundary have indicated that pollen-stratigraphical changes have been rapid with no evidence for response lags. This does not rule out the possibility of migrational disequilibrium, however, as the rapid changes may be mostly due to nonmigrational responses of existing vegetation. It is therefore difficult to assess whether the amplitude of reconstructed climate change reflects real climate change. Other outstanding problems remain the obscure relationship of pollen production and climate, the role of human impact and other nonclimatic factors, and nonanalogue situations.

Discovery of Spatial Periodicities in a Coronal Loop Using Automated Edge-Tracking Algorithms

A new method for automated coronal loop tracking, in both spatial and temporal domains, is presented. Applying this technique to TRACE data, obtained using the 171 angstrom filter on 1998 July 14, we detect a coronal loop undergoing a 270 s kink-mode oscillation, as previously found by Aschwanden et al. However, we also detect flare-induced, and previously unnoticed, spatial periodicities on a scale of 3500 km, which occur along the coronal loop edge. Furthermore, we establish a reduction in oscillatory power for these spatial periodicities of 45% over a 222 s interval. We relate the reduction in detected oscillatory power to the physical damping of these loop-top oscillations.

The energetics of tetrahydrocarbazole aromatization over Pd(111): A computational analysis

The carbazole moiety is a component of many important pharmaceuticals including anticancer and anti-HIV agents and is commonly utilized in the production of modern polymeric materials with novel photophysical and electronic properties. Simple carbazoles are generally produced via the aromatization of the respective tetrahydrocarbazole (THCZ). In this work, density functional theory calculations are used to model the reaction pathway of tetrahydrocarbazole aromatization over Pd(111). The geometry of each of the intermediate surface species has been determined and how each structure interacts with the metal surface addressed. The reaction energies and barriers of each of the elementary surface reactions have also been calculated, and a detailed analysis of the energetic trends performed. Our calculations have shown that the surface intermediates remain fixed to the surface via the aromatic ring in a manner similar to that of THCZ. Moreover, the aliphatic ring becomes progressively more planer with the dissociation of each subsequent hydrogen atom. Analysis of the reaction energy profile has revealed that the trend in reaction barriers is determined by the two factors: (i) the strength of the dissociating ring-H bond and (ii) the subsequent gain in energy due to the geometric relaxation of the aliphatic ring. (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Reactivity of the 4d transition metals toward N hydrogenation and NH dissociation: A DFT-based HSAB analysis

The density functional theory (DFT) based hard-soft acid-base (HSAB) reactivity indices, including the electrophilicity index, have been successfully applied to many areas of molecular chemistry. In this work we test the applicability of such an approach to fundamental surface chemistry. We have considered, as prototypical surface reactions, both the hydrogenation of atomic nitrogen and the dissociative adsorption of the NH molecular radical. By use of a DFT methodology, the minimum energy reaction pathways, and corresponding reaction barriers, of the above reactions over Zr(001), Nb(110), Mo(110), Tc(001), Ru(001), Rh(111), and Pd(111) have been determined. By consideration of the chemical potential and chemical hardness of the surface metal atoms, and the principle of electronegativity equalization, it is found that the charge transferred to the NH radical during the process of dissociative adsorption correlates very well with that determined by Mulliken population analysis. Furthermore, it is found that the stability of the NH/surface transition state complex relates directly to this charge transfer and that the trend in transition state stability predicted by a HSAB; treatment correlates very strongly with that determined by DFT calculations. With regards to N hydrogenation, we find that during the course of the reaction, H loses cohesion to the surface, as it must migrate from a 3-fold hollow site to either a bridge or top site, to react with N. Partial density of states (PDOS) and Mulliken population analysis reveal that this loss of bonding is accompanied by charge transfer from H to the surface metal atoms. Moreover, by simple modeling, we show that the reaction barriers are directly proportional to this mandatory charge transfer. Indeed, it is found that the reaction barriers correlate very well with the electrophilicity index of the metal atoms.

Theoretical analysis on microwave heating of oil–water emulsions supported on ceramic, metallic or composite plates

A detailed theoretical analysis has been carried out to study efficient heating due to microwaves for one-dimensional (1D) oil–water emulsion samples placed on various ceramic, metallic (reflective) and ceramic–metallic composite supports. Two typical emulsion systems are considered such as oil-in-water (o/w) and water-in-oil (w/o). A preliminary study has been carried out via average power vs emulsion thickness diagram to estimate microwave power absorption within emulsion samples for various cases. The maxima in average power, also termed as ‘resonances’, are observed for specific emulsion thicknesses and the two consecutive resonances of significant magnitudes are termed as R1 and R2 modes. For both o/w and w/o emulsions, it is observed that microwave power absorption is enhanced in presence of metallic and composite supports during both R1 and R2 modes. The efficient heating strategies characterized by ‘large heating rates’ with ‘minimal thermal runaway’ i.e. uniform temperature distributions within the sample have been assessed for each type of emulsion. Based on the detailed spatial distributions of power and temperature for various cases, SiC-metallic composite support may be recommended as an optimal heating strategy for o/w samples with higher oil fractions (0.45) whereas metallic and Alumina-metallic composite supports may be favored for samples with smaller oil fractions (=0.3) during R1 mode. For w/o samples, SiC-metallic composite support may be suitable heating strategy for all ranges of water fractions during R1 mode. During R2 mode, metallic and Alumina-metallic composite supports are favored for both o/w and w/o emulsion samples. Current study recommends the efficient way to use microwaves in a single mode waveguide and the heating strategy can be suitably extended for heating of any other emulsions for which dielectric properties are easily measurable or available in the literature.

SpaciMS: spatial and temporal operando resolution of reactions within catalytic monoliths

Monolithic catalysts are widely used as structured catalysts, especially in the abatement of pollutants. Probing what happens inside these monoliths during operation is, therefore, vital for modelling and prediction of the catalyst behavior. SpaciMS is a spatially resolved capillary-inlet mass spectroscopy system allowing for the generation of spatially resolved maps of the reactions within monoliths. In this study SpaciMS results combined with 3D CFD modelling demonstrate that SpaciMS is a highly sensitive and minimally invasive technique that can provide reaction maps as well as catalytic temporal behavior. Herein we illustrate this by examining kinetic oscillations during a CO oxidation reaction over a Pt/Rh on alumina catalyst supported on a cordierite monolith. These oscillations were only observed within the monolith by SpaciMS between 30 and 90% CO conversion. Equivalent experiments performed in a plug-flow reactor using this catalyst in a crushed form over a similar range of reaction conditions did not display any oscillations demonstrating the importance of intra monolith analysis. This work demonstrates that the SpaciMS offers an accurate and comprehensive picture of structured catalysts under operation.

Spatial characterization of salt accumulation in early stage limestone weathering using probe permeametry

This research characterizes the weathering of natural building stone using an unsteady-state portable probe permeameter. Variations between the permeability properties of fresh rock and the same rocks after the early stages of a salt weathering simulation are used to examine the effects of salt accumulation on spatial variations in surface rock permeability properties in two limestones from Spain. The Fraga and Tudela limestones are from the Ebro basin and are of Miocene age. Both stone types figure largely in the architectural heritage of Spain and, in common with many other building limestones, they are prone to physical damage from salt crystallization in pore spaces. To examine feedbacks associated with salt accumulation during the early stages of this weathering process, samples of the two stone types were subjected to simulated salt weathering under laboratory conditions using magnesium sulphate and sodium chloride at concentrations of 5% and 15%. Permeability mapping and statistical analysis (aspatial statistics and spatial prediction) before and after salt accumulation are used to assess changes in the spatial variability of permeability and to correlate these changes with salt movement, porosity change, potential rock deterioration and textural characteristics. Statistical analyses of small-scale permeability measurements are used to evaluate the drivers for decay and hence aid the prediction of the weathering behaviour of the two limestones.

Distance between home and work: A multilevel analysis of individual workers, neighbourhoods, and employment sites in Northern Ireland

Abstract. We explore the distances between home and work for employees at twenty-eight different employment sites across Northern Ireland. Substantively, this is important for better understanding the geography of labour catchments. Methodologically, with data on the distances between place of residence (566 wards) and place of work for some 15 000 workers, and the use of multilevel modelling (MLM), the analysis adds to the evidence derived from other census-based and survey-based studies. Descriptive analysis is supplemented with MLM that simultaneously explores individual, neighbourhood, and site variations in travel-to-work patterns using hierarchical and cross-classified model specifications, including individual and ecological predictor variables (and their cross-level interactions). In doing so we apportion variability to different levels and spatial contexts, and also outline the factors that shape spatial mobility. We find, as expected, that factors such as gender and occupation influence the distance between home and work, and also confirm the importance of neighbourhood characteristics (such as population density observed in ecological analyses at ward level) in shaping individual outcomes, with major differences found between urban and rural locations. Beyond this, the analysis of variability also points to the relative significance of residential location, with less individual variability in travel-to-work distance between workers within wards than within employment sites. We conclude by suggesting that, whilst some general ‘rules’ about the factors that shape labour catchments are possible (eg workers in rural areas and in higher occupations travel further than others), the complex variability between places highlighted by the MLM analysis illustrates the salience of place-specific uniqueness.

Intertidal molluscan and algal species richness around the UK coast

Geographically referenced databases of species records are becoming increasingly available. Doubts over the heterogeneous quality of the underlying data may restrict analyses of such collated databases. We partitioned the spatial variation in species richness of littoral algae and molluscs from the UK National Biodiversity Network database into a smoothed mesoscale component and a local component. Trend surface analysis (TSA) was used to define the mesoscale patterns of species richness, leaving a local residual component that lacked spatial autocorrelation. The analysis was based on 10 km grid squares with 115035 records of littoral algae (729 species) and 66879 records of littoral molluscs (569 species). The TSA identified variation in algal and molluscan species richness with a characteristic length scale of approximately 120 km. Locations of the most species-rich grid squares were consistent with the southern and western bias of species richness in the UK marine flora and fauna. The TSA also identified areas which showed significant changes in the spatial pattern of species richness: breakpoints, which correspond to major headlands along the south coast of England. Patterns of algal and molluscan species richness were broadly congruent. Residual variability was strongly influenced by proxies of collection effort, but local environmental variables including length of the coastline and variability in wave exposure were also important. Relative to the underlying trend, local species richness hotspots occurred on all coasts. While there is some justification for scepticism in analyses of heterogeneous datasets, our results indicate that the analysis of collated datasets can be informative.

A new algorithm for spectral and spatial reconstruction of proton beams from dosimetric measurements

We report on a new algorithm developed for the dosimetric analysis of broad-spectrum, multi-MeV laser-accelerated proton beams. The algorithm allows the reconstruction of the proton beam spectrum from radiochromic film data. This processing technique makes dosimetry measurements a viable alternative to the use of track detectors for spatially and spectrally resolved proton beam analysis. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Association Analysis of the PIP4K2A Gene on Chromosome 10p12 and Schizophrenia in the Irish Study of High Density Schizophrenia Families (ISHDSF) and the Irish Case-Control Study of Schizophrenia (ICCSS)

Molecular studies support pharmacological evidence that phosphoinositide signaling is perturbed in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. The phosphatidylinositol-4-phosphate-5-kinase type-II alpha (PIP4K2A) gene is located on chromosome 10p12. This region has been implicated in both diseases by linkage, and PIP4K2A directly by association. Given linkage evidence in the Irish Study of High Density Schizophrenia Families (ISHDSF) to a region including 10p12, we performed an association study between genetic variants at PIP4K2A and disease. No association was detected through single-marker or haplotype analysis of the whole sample. However, stratification into families positive and negative for the ISHDSF schizophrenia high-risk haplotype (HRH) in the DTNBP1 gene and re-analysis for linkage showed reduced amplitude of the 10p12 linkage peak in the DTNBP1 HRH positive families. Association analysis of the stratified sample showed a trend toward association of PIP4K2A SNPs rs1417374 and rs1409395 with schizophrenia in the DTNBP1 HRH positive families. Despite this apparent paradox, our data may therefore suggest involvement of PIP4K2A in schizophrenia in those families for whom genetic variation in DTNBP1 appears also to be a risk factor. This trend appears to arise from under-transmission of common alleles to female cases. Follow-up association analysis in a large Irish schizophrenia case-control control sample (ICCSS) showed significant association with disease of a haplotype comprising these same SNPs rs1417374-rs1409395, again more so in affected females, and in cases with negative family history of the disease. This study supports a minor role for PIP4K2A in schizophrenia etiology in the Irish population. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Variations in Apolipoprotein E Frequency With Age in a Pooled Analysis of a Large Group of Older People

Variation in the apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) has been reported to be associated with longevity in humans. The authors assessed the allelic distribution of APOE isoforms e2, e3, and e4 among 10,623 participants from 15 case-control and cohort studies of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in populations of European ancestry (study dates ranged from 1990 to 2009). The authors included only the 10,623 control subjects from these studies who were classified as having no evidence of AMD, since variation within the APOE gene has previously been associated with AMD. In an analysis stratified by study center, gender, and smoking status, there was a decreasing frequency of the APOE e4 isoform with increasing age (?2 for trend = 14.9 (1 df); P = 0.0001), with a concomitant increase in the e3 isoform (?2 for trend = 11.3 (1 df); P = 0.001). The association with age was strongest in e4 homozygotes; the frequency of e4 homozygosity decreased from 2.7% for participants aged 60 years or less to 0.8% for those over age 85 years, while the proportion of participants with the e3/e4 genotype decreased from 26.8% to 17.5% across the same age range. Gender had no significant effect on the isoform frequencies. This study provides strong support for an association of the APOE gene with human longevity.