Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (similar to 25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities.

Vegetation responses to rapid climatic changes during the last deglaciation 13,500-8,000 years ago on southwest Andoya, arctic Norway

The late-glacial vegetation development in northern Norway in response to climate changes during the Allerod, Younger Dryas (YD), and the transition to the Holocene is poorly known. Here we present a high-resolution record of floral and vegetation changes at lake Lusvatnet, south-west Andoya, between 13500 and 8000 cal b.p. Plant macrofossil and pollen analyses were done on the same sediment core and the proxy records follow each other very closely. The core has also been analyzed using an ITRAX XRF scanner in order to check the sediment sequence for disturbances or hiatuses. The core has a good radiocarbon-based chronology. The Saksunarvatn tephra fits very well chronostratigraphically. During both the Allerod and the Younger Dryas time-periods arctic vegetation prevailed, dominated by Salix polaris associated with many typically arctic herbs such as Saxifraga cespitosa, Saxifraga rivularis and Oxyria digyna. Both periods were cold and dry. Between 12450 and 12250 cal b.p. during the Younger Dryas chronozone, the assemblage changed, particularly in the increased abundance of Papaver sect. Scapiflora and other high-Arctic herbs, suggesting the development of polar desert vegetation mainly as a response to increased aridity. After 11520 cal b.p. a gradually warmer and more oceanic climate initiated a succession to dwarf-shrub vegetation and the establishment of Betula woodland after 1,000 years at c. 10520 cal b.p. The overall late-glacial aridity contrasts with oceanic conditions in southern Norway and is probably related to sea-ice extent.

Defects in acute responses to TLR4 in Btk-deficient mice result in impaired dendritic cell-induced IFN-γ production by natural killer cells

This study defines a critical role for Btk in regulating TLR4-induced crosstalk between antigen presenting cells (APCs) and natural killer (NK) cells. Reduced levels of IL-12, IL-18 and IFN-? were observed in Btk-deficient mice and ex vivo generated macrophages and dendritic cells (DCs) following acute LPS administration, whilst enhanced IL-10 production was observed. In addition, upregulation of activation markers and antigen presentation molecules on APCs was also impaired in the absence of Btk. APCs, by virtue of their ability to produce IL-12 and IL-18, are strong inducers of NK-derived IFN-?. Co-culture experiments demonstrate that Btk-deficient DCs were unable to drive wild-type or Btk-deficient NK cells to induce IFN-? production, whereas these responses could be restored by exogenous administration of IL-12 and IL-18. Thus Btk is a critical regulator of APC-induced NK cell activation by virtue of its ability to regulate IL-12 and IL-18 production in response to acute LPS administration.

Relative biological effectiveness (RBE) and out-of-field cell survival responses to passive scattering and pencil beam scanning proton beam deliveries

The relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of passive scattered (PS) and pencil beam scanned (PBS) proton beam delivery techniques for uniform beam configurations was determined by clonogenic survival. The radiobiological impact of modulated beam configurations on cell survival occurring in- or out-of-field for both delivery techniques was determined with intercellular communication intact or physically inhibited. Cell survival responses were compared to those observed using a 6 MV photon beam produced with a linear accelerator. DU-145 cells showed no significant difference in survival response to proton beams delivered by PS and PBS or 6 MV photons taking into account a RBE of 1.1 for protons at the centre of the spread out Bragg peak. Significant out-of-field effects similar to those observed for 6 MV photons were observed for both PS and PBS proton deliveries with cell survival decreasing to 50-60% survival for scattered doses of 0.05 and 0.03 Gy for passive scattered and pencil beam scanned beams respectively. The observed out-of-field responses were shown to be dependent on intercellular communication between the in-and out-of-field cell populations. These data demonstrate, for the first time, a similar RBE between passive and actively scanned proton beams and confirm that out-of-field effects may be important determinants of cell survival following exposure to modulated photon and proton fields